Economics Commons^™

Inference On Optimal Treatment Assignments, Timothy B. Armstrong, Shu Shen

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We consider inference on optimal treatment assignments. Our methods are the first to allow for inference on the treatment assignment rule that would be optimal given knowledge of the population treatment effect in a general setting. The procedure uses multiple hypothesis testing methods to determine a subset of the population for which assignment to treatment can be determined to be optimal after conditioning on all available information, with a prespecified level of confidence. A monte carlo study confirms that the procedure has good small sample behavior. We apply the method to the Mexican conditional cash transfer program Progresa. We demonstrate …

Inference On Optimal Treatment Assignments, Timothy B. Armstrong, Shu Shen

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We consider inference on optimal treatment assignments. Our methods allow for inference on the treatment assignment rule that would be optimal given knowledge of the population treatment effect in a general setting. The procedure uses multiple hypothesis testing methods to determine a subset of the population for which assignment to treatment can be determined to be optimal after conditioning on all available information, with a prespecified level of confidence. A Monte Carlo study confirms that the inference procedure has good small sample behavior. We apply the method to study Project STAR and the optimal assignment of small class based on …

Introduction: Education Finance In New York State, John Yinger

Center for Policy Research

It’s Elementary is a series of essays on topics in education and education policy. The main focus is on education finance in New York State, but general research findings in education and education policy issues in several other states are also discussed. John Yinger, Professor of Economics and Public Administration at the Maxwell School, Syracuse University is the author of most of these essays, although a few are written by or co-authored with other scholars.

Invisible & Voiceless: Latinos In Council Bluffs Iowa, María Teresa Gastón, Lourdes Gouveia, Christian Espinosa, Clare Maakestad, Christopher C. Blue

Latino/Latin American Studies Reports

While Latino immigrant workers in Council Bluffs, Iowa have contributed significantly to the Iowa and Nebraska economies, they remain virtually invisible and lack a voice in the city’s key venues and institutions – this according to a new report being released by the University of Nebraska at Omaha (UNO) Office of Latino/Latin American Studies (OLLAS) and funded in part by the Iowa West Foundation.

The report, titled “Invisible & Voiceless” combines data from the 2010 Census with 26 interviews with members of Council Bluffs’ civic, government, education, religious, non-profit and business communities as well as Latino voices gathered at interviews …

Employee Choice Over Pay Mix, Kevin F. Hallock

Economics Faculty Publications

Suppose the company set the level of pay and then let employees choose the fractions they wanted as guaranteed salary, stock options and at-risk bonus. The fraction in at-risk bonus was capped at 20% of total pay and the payout was between 0 and 2.5 times the amount put at-risk and was a function of individual and group performance. This is not a theoretical example; it's real. And, it is interesting for a variety of reasons, including that it is so extreme and because the organization invited some researchers inside to study the fascinating choices made by employees. They were …

The Allocation Of Time In Sleep: A Social Network Model With Sampled Data, Xiaodong Liu, Eleonora Patacchini, Edoardo Rainone

Center for Policy Research

We analyze peer effects in sleeping behavior using a representative sample of U.S. teenagers from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health. The sampling design of the survey causes the conventional 2SLS estimator to be inconsistent. We extend the NLS estimator in Wang and Lee (2013a) to estimate network models with sampled observations on the dependent variable. When accounting for sampling, we find that the sleeping behavior of the friends is important to shape own sleeping behavior, besides the impact of individual, family and friend characteristics.

Trends In Poverty Rates Among Latinos In New York City And The United States, 1990 - 2011, Justine Calcagno

Center for Latin American, Caribbean, and Latino Studies

Introduction: This study examines demographic and socioeconomic factors regarding Latinos in New York City and the United States between 1990 and 2011 – particularly poverty rates.

Methods: Data on Latinos and other racial/ethnic groups were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, reorganized for public use by the Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, IPUMSusa. Cases in the dataset were weighted and analyzed to produce population estimates.

Results: The analyzed data indicate that the poverty rate among the national population over the last two decades increased. However, there were nuanced and complex trends within both New York City …

Corruption Dynamics: The Golden Goose Effect, Paul Niehaus, Sandip Sukhtankar

Dartmouth Scholarship

Theoretical work on disciplining corrupt agents has emphasized the role of expected future rents -- for example, efficiency wages. Yet taken seriously this approach implies that illicit future rents should also deter corruption. We study this "golden goose" effect in the context of a statutory wage increase in India's employment guarantee scheme, comparing official microrecords to original household survey data to measure corruption. We estimate large golden goose effects that reduced the total impact of the wage increase on theft by roughly 64 percent. In short, rent expectations matter. (JEL D73, D82, H83, J41, K42, O17, O21)

Concentration On The Las Vegas Strip: An Exploration Of The Impacts, David G. Schwartz

Library Faculty Research

Looking at two snapshots, albeit from a distance, gives an overview of how concentrated the gaming industry in Nevada has become:

• In 1998, 23 publicly held corporations owned 65 casinos that grossed more than $12 million that year from gaming. These casinos grossed 75.48% of the state’s total gaming revenue that fiscal year.

• In 2012, 22 publicly held corporations owned 70 casinos that grossed more than $12 million that year from gambling, pulling in 78.0% of that state’s total gaming revenue that fiscal year.

Health Promotions 2.0: The Future Of Wellness Programs In America, Rajiv Kumar

Center for Policy Research

In no small part because of technology, the way we live and work is being transformed. I believe that those of us who are interested in health policy can play an important role in guiding that transformation. I submit to you that unhealthy living is a social issue; that conditions such as obesity and diabetes are social diseases and that their prevalence is a social problem. If we have a social problem, then we need a social solution. I believe part of that solution can be found in the worksite health promotion and wellness programs that have taken root across …

Spatial Lag Models With Nested Random Effects: An Instrumental Variable Procedure With An Application To English House Prices, Badi H. Baltagi, Bernard Fingleton, Alain Pirotte

Center for Policy Research

This paper sets up a nested random effects spatial autoregressive panel data model to explain annual house price variation for 2000-2007 across 353 local authority districts in England. The estimation problem posed is how to allow for the endogeneity of the spatial lag variable producing the simultaneous spatial spillover of prices across districts together with the nested random effects in a panel data setting. To achieve this, the paper proposes new estimators based on the instrumental variable approaches of Kelejian and Prucha (1998) and Lee (2003) for the cross-sectional spatial autoregressive model. Monte Carlo results show that our estimators perform …

Profiting From Regulation: Evidence From The European Carbon Market, James B. Bushnell, Howard Chong, Erin T. Mansur

Dartmouth Scholarship

We investigate how cap-and-trade regulation affects profits. In late April 2006, the EU CO2 allowance price dropped 50 percent, equating to a €28 billion reduction in the value of aggregate annual allowances. We examine daily returns for 552 stocks from the EUROSTOXX index. Despite reductions in environmental costs, we find that stock prices fell for firms in both carbon- and electricity-intensive industries, particularly for firms selling primarily within the EU. Our results imply that investors focus on product price impacts, rather than just compliance costs and the nominal value of pollution permits.

(Wp 2013-06) The Impact Of Output And Exchange Rate Volatility On Fixed Private Investment: Evidence From Selected G7 Countries, Abdur Chowdhury, Mark Wheeler

Economics Working Papers

This study examines the impact of shocks to exchange rate and output uncertainty (volatility) on real private fixed investment (FI) in Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The analysis is conducted using vector autoregressive models that contain the price level, real output, the volatility of real output, the real exchange rate, the volatility of the real exchange rate, an interest rate, and FI. The results yield important public policy implications with regard to the impact of output volatility of FI. Our analysis indicates that volatility shocks, measured as output volatility or exchange rate volatility, do not have …

(Wp 2013-07) Terms Of Trade Shocks And Private Savings In The Developing Countries, Abdur Chowdhury

Economics Working Papers

Economic agents in the developing countries are subject to tight credit constraints, which are more pronounced during bad state of nature. Thus, adverse shocks to commodity prices in the world market can force them to reduce savings by a larger amount than they would otherwise have. Empirical analysis using a dynamic GMM model and data from 45 developing countries confirm that most of the determinants of savings identified in the literature also apply to the developing countries. The transitory component in the terms of trade have a larger positive impact than the permanent component. This reflects the lack of access …

(Wp 2013-08) Economic (In)Security And Gender Differences In Trade Policy Attitudes, Jeffrey Drope, Abdur Chowdhury

Economics Working Papers

Over time and across countries, researchers have noted frequent and mostly unexplained gender differences in the levels of support for policies of free or freer trade: women tend to be less favorable toward policies of liberalizing trade than men. Yet, no well substantiated theoretical or empirical account of the gender component of trade attitudes has emerged. Using an economic security explanation based principally on a mobile factors approach, we find that it is not women generally who are more negative toward trade but particularly economically vulnerable women – i.e. women from the scarce labor factor. We utilize recent survey data …

The Beartooth Highway: 2012-2013 Economic Impacts, Use, And Destination Image, Jake Jorgenson, Norma P. Nickerson, Kara Grau

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

The purpose of this study was to assess the economic impacts and visitor use of the Beartooth Highway. Data was collected from visitors during the 2012 summer and 2012-2013 winter seasons. In total, over 4,000 summer visitors and 1,600 winter visitors were intercepted during the study. This report is a compilation of three separate studies conducted along the Beartooth Highway with a summary and researcher observations in the introductory pages.

Estimation Of Time-Varying Adjusted Probability Of Informed Trading And Probability Of Symmetric Order-Flow Shock, Daniel Preve, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

Recently Duarte and Young (2009) study the probability of informed trading (PIN) proposed by Easley et al. (2002) and decompose it into two parts: the adjusted PIN (APIN) as a measure of asymmetric information and the probability of symmetric order-flow shock (PSOS) as a measure of illiquidity. They provide some cross-section estimates of these measures using daily data over annual periods. In this paper we propose a method to estimate daily APIN and PSOS by extending the method in Tay et al. (2009) using high-frequency transaction data. Our empirical results show that while PIN is positively contemporaneously correlated with variance, …

Relook Link Between Low Wages And Foreign Workers, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

He felt that the commonplace idea that the huge inflow of foreign workers in the past decade caused a stagnation and even decline in real wage earnings of Singaporean workers in the bottom half of the income distribution was flawed. He argued that real wage earnings of the median worker actually increased when the number of inflows of foreign workers was reaching its peak. Prof Hoon thus felt that Singapore must now find a means to gear its political and economic institutions to continue to embrace economic openness in the next half-century, in order to be able to deliver good …

Egalitarian Division Under Leontief Preferences, Jin Li, Jingyi Xue

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider the problem of fairly dividing l divisible goods among n agents with the generalized Leontief preferences. We propose and characterize the class of generalized egalitarian rules which satisfy efficiency, group strategy-proofness, anonymity, resource monotonicity, population monotonicity, envy-freeness and consistency. On the Leontief domain, our rules generalize the egalitarian-equivalent rules with reference bundles. We also extend our rules to agent-specific and endowment-specific egalitarian rules. The former is a larger class of rules satisfying all the previous properties except anonymity and envy-freeness. The latter is a class of efficient, group strategy-proof, anonymous and individually rational rules when the resources are …

An Epidemiological Approach To Opinion And Price-Volume Dynamics, Dong Hong, Harrison G. Hong, Andrei Ungureanu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We develop a simple and tractable model of opinions and price-volume dynamics based on a word-of-mouth communication process widely used in epidemiology. Risk-averse investors have different opinions depending on whether they heard the news from a friend. Opinions initially diverge and then converge over time as news spreads, which leads to price adjustment and trading volume. News released to many leads to an expected difusion rate (the change in the fraction of investors with the news) that declines with time. But news initially released to few leads to an expected diffusion rate that initially increases in time and only then …

From Coercion To Politics To Law: The Evolution Of Property Rights Protection, Fali Huang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper shows how property rights security improves over time as a result of increasing legal quality and political democratization in a political economy context, where political and legal institutions adapt to evolving factor composition of land and capital in the dynamic economic development process. There seems to exist a clear sequence of di⁄erent forms of protection in that it is unlikely to have a strong rule of law with an exploitative political regime, or to have a democratic political system when the distribution of potential coercive power is too skewed. The routine form of protection thus shifts from coercion …

Limit Theory For An Explosive Autoregressive Process, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Large sample properties are studied for a first-order autoregression (AR(1)) with a root greater than unity. It is shown that, contrary to the AR coefficient, the least-squares (LS) estimator of the intercept and its t-statistic are asymptotically normal without requiring the Gaussian error distribution, and hence an invariance principle applies. The coefficient based test and the t test have better power for testing the hypothesis of zero intercept in the explosive process than in the stationary process.

Singapore's Housing Policies: 1960-2013, Sock Yong Phang, Kyunghwan Kim

Research Collection School Of Economics

The focus of this case study is on the important role of real estate and housing policies in Singapore’s economic development. In the sphere of housing policy, Singapore is known for its high homeownership rates, the very significant role played by the government in housing supply and housing finance, and the wealth that has been created and distributed in the process.

Growth, Development And Education, Michael Hemesath

Administration Publications

No abstract provided.

Developing Planning Prices For Commodities, Nicholas Jorgensen, Matthew Diersen

Economics Commentator (1972- 2016)

No abstract provided.

Application Of Sgt Family Distributions In Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Samuel Dodini

Undergraduate Economic Review

In the classical normal linear regression model, ordinary least squares estimators (OLS) will be consistent and achieve the Cramer-Rao lower bound for any unbiased estimators. This paper examines the impact of several other error distributions on the properties of the OLS estimators. Several different types of example data commonly available to students and researchers in economics are used to illustrate the impact of nonnormality, because, in application, the assumption of normality may not hold in empirical testing. Using maximum likelihood, I demonstrate that flexible probability density functions better model the residual distribution of different types of data, which suggests improvements …

Student Borrowing And Debt: A Smart Investment, Not A Crisis, Michael Hemesath

Administration Publications

No abstract provided.

How Do Firms Become Different? A Dynamic Model, Matthew Selove

Business Faculty Articles and Research

This paper presents a dynamic investment game in which firms that are initially identical develop assets that are specialized to different market segments. The model assumes that there are increasing returns to investment in a segment, for example, as a result of word-of-mouth or learning curve effects. I derive three key results: (1) Under certain conditions there is a unique equilibrium in which firms that are only slightly different focus all of their investment in different segments, causing small random differences to expand into large permanent differences. (2) If, on the other hand, sufficiently large random shocks are possible, firms …

Capital Cost Comparisons Between Low Impact Development (Lid) And Conventional Stormwater Management Systems In Florida, Daniel C. Penniman, Mark Hostetler, Tatiana Borisova, Glenn Acomb

Suburban Sustainability

Low impact development (LID), an ecologically sensitive development strategy and stormwater management (SWM) method, is beginning to be implemented in more suburban and metropolitan projects. However, construction firms that work in Florida have been relatively slow to adopt LID. One significant reason being that many professionals in the development community believe LID practices raise the cost of construction compared to conventional, “pipe and pond” methods. Our objective for this study was to determine how specific capital costs differed between LID and conventional SWM methods. We surveyed a group of LID-experienced design professionals to collect cost data from projects that were …

Public Health Services & Systems Research: Building The Science Of Public Health Delivery, Glen P. Mays

Health Management and Policy Presentations

The extreme heterogeneity in how public health activities are organized, financed, and implemented across U.S. states and communities provides compelling opportunities for research on the comparative effectiveness and efficiency of public health delivery. This talk highlights some of the most compelling and policy-relevant opportunities for research on public health organization and financing issues, and examines some of the ongoing studies in the field.