Economics Commons^™

Strategic Behavior In Schelling Dynamics: A New Result And Experimental Evidence, Juan Miguel Benito, Pablo Brañas-Garza, Penélope Hern´Andez, Juan A. Sanchis

ESI Working Papers

In this paper we experimentally test Schelling’s (1971) segregation model and confirm the striking result of segregation. In addition, we extend Schelling’s model theoretically by adding strategic behavior and moving costs. We obtain a unique subgame perfect equilibrium in which rational agents facing moving costs may find it optimal not to move (anticipating other participants’ movements). This equilibrium is far for full segregation. We run experiments for this extended Schelling model. We find that the percentage of strategic players dramatically increases with the cost of moving and that the degree of segregation depends on the distribution of rational subjects.

Double Bubbles In Assets Markets With Multiple Generations, Cary Deck, David Porter, Vernon Smith

ESI Working Papers

We construct an asset market in a finite horizon overlapping-generations environment. Subjects are tested for comprehension of their fundamental value exchange environment, and then reminded during each of 25 periods of its declining new value. We observe price bubbles forming when new generations enter the market with additional liquidity and bursting as old generations exit the market and withdrawing cash. The entry and exit of traders in the market creates an M shaped double bubble price path over the life of the traded asset. This finding is significant in documenting that bubbles can reoccur within one extended trading horizon and, …

Cognitive Effort In The Beauty Contest Game, Pablo Brañas-Garza, Teresa García-Muñoz

ESI Working Papers

This paper analyzes cognitive effort in 6 different one-shot p-beauty games. We use both Raven and Cognitive Reáection tests to identify subjects' abilities. We find that the Raven test does not provide any insight on beauty contest game playing but CRT does: subjects with higher scores on this test are more prone to play dominant strategies.

Don’T Ask Me If You Will Not Listen: The Dilemma Of Participative Decision Making, Brice Corgnet, Roberto Hérnan-Gonzalez

ESI Working Papers

We study the effect of participative decision making in an experimental principalagent game, where the principal can consult the agent’s preferred option regarding the task to be undertaken in the final stage of the game. We show that consulting the agent was beneficial to principals as long as they followed the agent’s choice. Ignoring the agent’s choice was detrimental to the principal as it engendered negative emotions and low levels of transfers. Nevertheless, the majority of principals were reluctant to change their mind and adopt the agent’s proposal. Our results suggest that the ability to change one’s own mind is …

Transparency, Efficiency And The Distribution Of Economic Welfare In Pass-Through Investment Trust Games, Thomas A. Rietz, Roman M. Sheremeta, Timothy W. Shields, Vernon Smith

ESI Working Papers

We design an experiment to examine welfare and behavior in a multi-level trust game representing a pass through investment in an intermediated market. In a repeated game, an Investor invests via an Intermediary who lends to a Borrower. A pre-experiment one-shot version of the game serves as a baseline and to type each subject. We alter the transparency of exchanges between non-adjacent parties. We find transparency of the exchanges between the investor and intermediary does not significantly affect welfare. However, transparency regarding exchanges between the intermediary and borrower promotes trust on the part of the investor, increasing welfare. Further, this …

Modeling Endogenous Treatment Eects With Heterogeneity: A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach, Xuequn Hu

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation explores the estimation of endogenous treatment effects in the presence of heterogeneous responses. A Bayesian Nonparametric approach is taken to model the heterogeneity in treatment effects. Specifically, I adopt the Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) model to capture the heterogeneity and show that DPM often outperforms Finite Mixture Model (FMM) in providing more flexible function forms and thus better model fit. Rather than fixing the number of components in a mixture model, DPM allows the data and prior knowledge to determine the number of components in the data, thus providing an automatic mechanism for model selection.

Two DPM models …

Internet Use And Economic Development: Evidence And Policy Implications, Joseph J. Macdougald

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation explores how Internet use impacts four different measures of economic development using several econometric techniques on multi-country panel data. The economic development outcomes investigated are: per capita GDP, per capita export revenues, per capita market capitalization, and societal well-being as measured by the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI). Data from the World Bank, the International Telecommunication Union, and the United Nations –covering 202 countries over the period 1996 to 2007– are combined to allow for empirical investigation using dynamic panel data and finite mixture model estimation techniques on the total sample and subsamples stratified by country income …

Currency Trading Using The Fractal Market Hypothesis, Jonathan Blackledge, Kieran Murphy

Articles

We report on a research and development programme in financial modelling and economic security undertaken in the Information and Communications Security Research Group (ICSRG, 2011) which has led to the launch of a new company - Currency Traders Ireland Limited - funded by Enterprise Ireland. Currency Traders Ireland Limited (CTI, 2011) has a fifty year exclusive license to develop a new set of indicators for analysing currency exchange rates (Forex trading). We consider the background to the approach taken and present examples of the results obtained to date.

Introduction To Special Issue: Globalisation And Economic Integration In East Asia, Paul De Grauwe, Zhaoyong Zhang

Research outputs 2011

Globalisation or regionalisation is arguably the most popular concept used to describe the rapid growth of intra-regional trade and capital flows as well as the political and social linkages associated with increasing economic integration in the East Asian region. However, it might be a surprise to note that regionalisation is relatively a recent event in East Asia. In comparison with the European experience, regional integration in East Asia has occurred in the absence of a formal institutional framework, and is market-driven in nature. Policies such as preferential trading arrangements have traditionally not played much of a role in the integration …

Bank Risk: Does Size Matter?, David Allen, Akhmad R. Kramadibrata, Robert Powell, Abhay K. Singh

Research outputs 2011

The size of banks is examined as a determinant of bank risk. A wide range of banks are examined across four regions, including Australia, Canada, Europe and the USA. Four risk metrics are considered including Value at Risk (VaR), Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR, which measures risk beyond VaR), Probability of Default (PD) using Merton structural methodology, and Conditional Probability of Default (CPD, the author’s own model which measures risk based on extreme asset value fluctuations. Daily equity and asset value fluctuations are included in the analysis, including pre-GFC and GFC periods. In addition to examining size in isolation as …

Xtreme Credit Risk Models: Implications For Bank Capital Buffers, David E. Allen, Akhmad R. Kramadibrata, Robert J. Powell, Abhay K. Singh

Research outputs 2011

The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) highlighted the importance of measuring and understanding extreme credit risk. This paper applies Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) techniques, traditionally used in the insurance industry to measure risk beyond a predetermined threshold, to four credit models. For each of the models we use both Historical and Monte Carlo Simulation methodology to create CVaR measurements. The four extreme models are derived from modifications to the Merton structural model (which we term Xtreme-S), the CreditMetrics Transition model (Xtreme-T), Quantile regression (Xtreme-Q), and the author’s own unique iTransition model (Xtreme-i) which incorporates industry factors into transition matrices. For …

Are Estimates Of The Value Of A Statistical Life Exaggerated?, Chris Doucouliagos, T D Stanley, Margaret J. Giles

Research outputs 2011

The magnitude of the value of astatisticallife (VSL) is critical to the evaluation of many health and safety initiatives. To date, the large and rigorous VSL research literature has not explicitly accommodated publication selectivity bias (i.e., the reduced probability that insignificant or negative VSL values are reported). This study demonstrates that doing so is essential. For studies that employ hedonic wage equations to estimate VSL, correction for selection bias reduces the average value of astatisticallife by 70–80%. Our meta-regression analysis also identifies several sources for the wide heterogeneity found among reported VSL estimates.

Chapter 3, Two Versions, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, Anwar. Handwritten archival overview notes regarding multiple versions of chapter three and macrofoundations of method. Unpublished manuscript.
• Shaikh, Anwar. Microfoundations, emergent properties and nonlinear dynamics. Unpublished work.
• Shaikh, Anwar. Earlier raw draft version of chapter three titled microfoundations, emergent properties and nonlinear dynamics. Unpublished work.

Administration Response Of Nonprofit Organizations Due To The 2007-2009 Recession, Kelsey Belle Marie Wegner

Dissertations and Theses @ UNI

In December of 2007, a recession began in the United States that affected nearly every aspect of the economy. The Great Recession created a global meltdown of numerous sectors including the nonprofit sector. The nonprofit sector is a significant part of the United States economy, making up more than 10 percent of employment and has approximately 1.4 million nonprofit organizations registered with the Internal Revenue Service. The researcher examined what effect the recession had on nonprofit organizations. The purpose of the study is to determine how the recession that began in 2007 has impacted 501(c) nonprofit organizations in five United …

Financial Stability Is A Volume Business: A Comment On The Legal Infrastructure Of Ex Post Consumer Debtor Protections, Anna Gelpern

Georgetown Law Faculty Publications and Other Works

Professor Melissa B. Jacoby's essay pays homage to Stewart Macaulay's classic study of the Magnuson-Moss Warranty Act, a U.S. federal consumer protection law that, according to Macaulay, was virtually unknown to the lawyers whose clients needed it the most. The moral of Macaulay's study is that even good consumer protection laws on the books often fail to deliver in action for complex cultural, institutional, and economic reasons. Yet reducing Professor Jacoby's essay to this very important moral undersells its contribution. A fragmented infrastructure for legal service delivery of the sort she describes does not merely fail consumers more often than …

The Challenge Of Temporary Work In Twenty-First Century Labor Markets: Flexibility With Fairness For The Low-Wage Temporary Workforce, Harris Freeman, George Gonos

Faculty Scholarship

As the Commonwealth wrestles with the social and economic aftershocks of the worst economic recession in 80 years, the widespread use of temporary staffing arrangements is a sober reminder that the “standard” employment relationship, a cornerstone of the prosperity of the post-­World War II era, is no longer available to a large segment of the American workforce. “Job ladders” have disintegrated, depriving capable and dedicated workers of predictable promotions. Regular step increases in pay and cost-­of-­living adjustments are in many occupational categories a thing of the past. Simply put, the “good jobs” working people need to support families, pay the …

Three Essays On Financial Markets And Monetary Policy, Abeba Siraj Mussa

Dissertations

The global financial crisis triggered by fallout from the sub-prime mortgage market in the U.S. has led economists to focus attention on the role of monetary policy in the crisis. The question of how monetary policy affects the financial sector is the key to the current debate over the role financial stability should play in the monetary policy decisions. As a contribution to this debate, my dissertation examines the link between monetary policy and three main financial sectors - the banking sector, the stock market, and the housing market.

The first essay examines whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) …

The View From City Hall: Local Perceptions Of Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations In The Czech Republic, Scott M. Smith, Phillip J. Bryson, Gary C. Cornia

Faculty Publications

This article analyzes perceptions of inter-governmental fiscal relations as held by local officials of the Czech Republic. The field study probes local perceptions of progress toward fiscal decentralization in the Czech Republic. A statistical analysis is based on a scaling of cities according to size and according to a generalized, multi-part measure of fiscal autonomy. This measure is effective in discriminating high and low autonomy cities by size, types of expenditures, and funding sources. Cities of diverse sizes are divided into groups reflecting perceptions of greater or lesser autonomy. The implications of the findings are discussed.

Essays In Health Economics And Public Policy, Colin Darren Cannonier

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation consists of three essays analyzing the role of public policy in affecting such outcomes as fertility, educational attainment and women’s preferences towards fertility and sexual activity. First, I investigate how a government educational policy affected the fertility behavior of teenagers in the United States. Specifically, Title V State Abstinence Education (SAE) program appropriates funding to states for the purpose of educating minors on abstinence before marriage. Using state level data to analyze the impact of abstinence education on the birth rates for teens; I find that for an average state, increasing spending by $50,000 per year on state …

Essays On Risk And Volatility, Junyue Xu

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

In this work, we begin with an investigation into the temporal correlation in default risk. We first establish a link between the dynamics of house price changes and the dynamics of default rates in the Gaussian copula framework by specifying a time series model for a common risk factor. We show that the serial correlation propagates from the common risk factor to default rates. In the second essay, we specify a model where the default correlation is stochastic. We find the distribution of expected value of cash flows received by securitized investment vehicles is distorted by the dynamics of default …

Courting Toyota, Selling Kentucky: Conflict And Relationship Building In The Establishment Of Toyota Motor Manufacturing Of Kentucky, 1984-1989, Eric Shea Bailey

Online Theses and Dissertations

This study is an examination of the social, economic, and governmental factors that surrounded the establishment of Toyota Motor Corporation's first wholly owned automobile plant in the United States. After a lengthy negotiation with several states, the plant was built in Scott County, Kentucky, near the city of Georgetown. The collected and archived correspondence of Governor Martha Layne Collins as well as contemporary media accounts and interviews with Governor Collins, Larry Hayes, Jiro Hashimoto, and Bill Londrigan served as the evidentiary basis for the research for this thesis. Previous interpretations have regarded the establishment of the factory as both a …

Designing Incentives For Inexpert Human Raters, Daniel L. Chen, John J. Horton, Aaron D. Shaw

Faculty Scholarship

The emergence of online labor markets makes it far easier to use individual human raters to evaluate materials for data collection and analysis in the social sciences. In this paper, we report the results of an experiment - conducted in an online labor market - that measured the effectiveness of a collection of social and financial incentive schemes for motivating workers to conduct a qualitative, content analysis task. Overall, workers performed better than chance, but results varied considerably depending on task difficulty. We find that treatment conditions which asked workers to prospectively think about the responses of their peers - …

Payroll Taxes, Wealth And Employment In Neoclassical Theory: Neutrality Or Nonneutrality?, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

The theoretical proposition that temporarily below-normal tax rates on labor this year, when merged with the prospect of reversion to normal rates next year, will encourage households to squeeze more work into this year and to work less in future years is well-founded. This proposition was recently tested anew on Icelandic data and performed well empirically (Bianchi, Gudmundsson, and Zoega 2001). But would a permanent cut in tax rates on labor encourage more work permanently—with no diminution of effectiveness? Conversely, does a permanent increase in tax rates on labor cause a permanent decline in hours worked?

Model Selection In Validation Sampling Data: An Asymptotic Likelihood-Based Lasso Approach, Chenlei Leng, Denis H. Y. Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose an asymptotic likelihood-based LASSO approach for model selection in regression analysis when data are subject to validation sampling. The method makes use of an initial estimator of the regression coefficients and their asymptotic covariance matrix to form an asymptotic likelihood. This ``working'' objective function facilitates the formulation of the LASSO and the implementation of a fast algorithm. Our method circumvents the need to use a likelihood set-up that requires full distributional assumptions about the data. We show that the resulting estimator is consistent in model selection and that the method has lower prediction errors than a model that …

Monetary Policy In Singapore And The Global Financial Crisis, Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter Wilson

Research Collection School Of Economics

Prior to the crisis the consensus amongst central bankers in advanced economies was that price stability, in the form of low and stable price inflation, was a top priority for monetary policy and could best be achieved by targeting interest rates (usually overnight) or monetary aggregates, such as Narrow Money (M1) and Broad Money (M2). Liquidity in the banking system could be flexibly adjusted on a daily basis through open market operations to increase or decrease the monetary base which would be transmitted to the rest of the economy through financial intermediation. Financial markets would then adjust longer-term interest rates …

The Impact Of Transaction Duration, Volume And Direction On Price Dynamics And Volatility, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitchell Warachka

Research Collection School Of Economics

We explore the role of trade volume, trade direction, and the duration between trades in explaining price dynamics and volatility using an Asymmetric Autoregressive Conditional Duration model applied to intraday transactions data. Our results suggest that volume, direction and duration are important determinants of price dynamics, while duration is also an important determinant of volatility. However, the impact of volume and direction on volatility is marginal after controlling for duration, and the impact of volume on volatility appears to be confined to periods of infrequent trading.

Assessing Post-Ada Employment: Some Econometric Evidence And Policy Considerations, Christopher L. Griffin Jr., John J. Donohue Iii, Michael Ashley Stein, Sascha Becker

Faculty Scholarship

This article explores the relationship between the Americans with Disabilities Act (“ADA”) and the relative labor market outcomes for people with disabilities. Using individual-level longitudinal data from 1981 to 1996 derived from the previously unexploited Panel Study of Income Dynamics (“PSID”), we examine the possible effect of the ADA on (1) annual weeks worked; (2) annual earnings; and (3) hourly wages for a sample of 7120 unique male household heads between the ages of 21 and 65 as well as a subset of 1437 individuals appearing every year from 1981 to 1996. Our analysis of the larger sample suggests the …

Harsanyi 2.0, Matthew D. Adler

Faculty Scholarship

How should we make interpersonal comparisons of well-being levels and differences? One branch of welfare economics eschews such comparisons, which are seen as impossible or unknowable; normative evaluation is based upon criteria such as Pareto or Kaldor-Hicks efficiency that require no interpersonal comparability. A different branch of welfare economics, for example optimal tax theory, uses “social welfare functions” (SWFs) to compare social states and governmental policies. Interpersonally comparable utility numbers provide the input for SWFs. But this scholarly tradition has never adequately explained the basis for these numbers.

John Harsanyi, in his work on so-called “extended preferences,” advanced a fruitful …

The Creativity Effect, Christopher Buccafusco, Christopher Jon Sprigman

Faculty Scholarship

This Article reports the first experiment to demonstrate the existence of a valua­tion anomaly associated with the creation of new works. To date, a wealth of social science research has shown that the least amount of money that owners of goods are willing to accept to part with their possessions is often far greater than the amount that purchasers would be willing to pay to obtain them. This phenomenon, known as the endowment effect, may create substantial inefficiencies in many markets. Our experi­ment demonstrates the existence of a related "creativity effect." We show that creators of works value their creations …

Economic Transition, Higher Education And Worker Productivity In China, Belton Fleisher, Yifan Yu, Haizheng Li, Seonghoon Kim

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate the role of education on worker productivity and firms' total factor productivity using a panel of firm-level data from China. We estimate the returns to education by calculating the marginal productivity of workers of different education levels based on estimates of the firm-level production function. We also estimate how the education level of workers and CEO contributes to firms' total factor productivity. Estimated marginal products are much higher than wages, and the gap is larger for highly educated workers. Our estimate shows that an additional year of schooling raises marginal product by 30.1%, and that CEO's education increases …