Economics Commons^™

Credit Risk And Real Capital : An Examination Of Swiss Banking Sector Default Risk Using Cvar, Robert J. Powell, David E. Allen

Research outputs pre 2011

The global financial crisis (GFC) has placed the creditworthiness of banks under intense scrutiny. In particular, capital adequacy has been called into question. Current capital requirements make no allowance for capital erosion caused by movements in the market value of assets. This paper examines default probabilities of Swiss banks under extreme conditions using structural modeling techniques. Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) and conditional probability of default (CPD) techniques are used to measure capital erosion. Significant increase in probability of default (PD) is found during the GFC period. The market asset value based approach indicates a much higher PD than external …

Examining The Existence Of Long-Run Relationships Between East Asian Economic Integration And Asean Tourism Exports, Ghialy Choy Lee Yap

Research outputs pre 2011

This paper examines the existence of long-run relationships between East Asian economic integration and tourism exports for nine selected ASEAN States for the period 1996-2007. I employ tourist arrivals data as a proxy for tourism exports and trade ratios as a proxy for the economic integration. Using Johansen’s Fisher panel cointegration test, the findings show that tourist arrivals and trade ratios are cointegrated in seven out of nine Southeast Asia countries. This suggests that East Asia economic integration can be one of the important factors that influence international tourism demand to ASEAN States in the long-run. However, for Laos and …

Financial Market Integration In The Greater China Region: A Multivariate Asymmetric Approach, K.Y. Ho, Zhaoyong Zhang

Research outputs pre 2011

This paper examines the volatility dynamics of the greater China stock markets (Shanghai A- and B-shares, Shenzhen A- and B-shares, Taiwan, and Hong Kong) by employing a multivariate (tetravariate) framework that incorporates the features of asymmetries, persistence, and time-varying correlations, which are typically observed in stock markets of developed economies. Our results indicate that, unlike the Shenzhen and Shanghai Ashares, Hong Kong and Taiwan markets, the B-share markets do not exhibit significant asymmetric volatility (“leverage effect”), and return volatility in the A-share market is substantially higher than the B-share market before April 1997, but this result is reversed after that. …

Using Quantile Regression To Estimate Capital Buffer Requirements For Japanese Banks, David Allen, Robert Powell, Abhay Singh

Research outputs pre 2011

This paper investigates the impact of extreme fluctuations in bank asset values on the capital adequacy and default probabilities (PD) of Japanese Banks. We apply quantile regression analysis to the Merton structural credit model to measure how capital adequacy and PDs fluctuate over a 10 year period incorporating the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Quantile regressions allow modelling of the extreme quantiles of a distribution, as opposed to focussing on the mean, which allows measurement of capital and PDs at the most extreme points of an economic downturn. Understanding extreme risk is essential, as it is during these extreme circumstances when …

Long Wave Animation, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes data on US and UK golden waves, 1786–2010.

Marx On Money, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (n.d.). New SR model [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (n.d.). Hand out monies [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (2010, May 17). Exchange, money and price (pp. 12–18) [Draft manuscript]. Includes plates of ancient monies.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1999, December 8). Value, price, money [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1999, December 1). Eco 104 notes on value, form of value, price, and the capital circuit [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (2001, November 5). Lectures on value [Printed course document with handwritten annotations]. Economic 104: Historical foundations I.

• Shaikh, A., …

Theory Of P, K, R (Chapter 6), Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Ch 6: profit and capital (Unpublished manuscript) by Anwar Shaikh.
• Appendix 6.1: algebra of profit and surplus labor (Unpublished manuscript) by Anwar Shaikh.
• Appendix 6.1 formal algebra profit & surplus labor (Unpublished manuscript notes) by Anwar Shaikh.
• Two sources of profits (Unpublished presentation slides) by Anwar Shaikh.
• The puzzle of profits (Unpublished manuscript) by Anwar Shaikh.

Discussion & Notes On Quality Adjustments Bias Of K Stock, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Fixed reproducible tangible wealth in the United States, 1925–89, written by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, published by the U.S. Government Printing Office, in the year 1993.
• Discussion & note on quality adj bias of k stock, an unpublished set of handwritten research notes and analytical commentary prepared by Anwar Shaikh, PhD, on September 17, 2010.
• Kstock bias in quality adj. prices, a manuscript file folder label inscribed with the identification code NA-23-65, prepared by Anwar Shaikh, PhD, on June 5, 2026.
• Alternate measures of current-cost output/capital indexes: 1947 = 100, an unpublished …

Chapter Five, Money - Earlier Drafts, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Exchange, money and price — Shaikh, Anwar, PhD. Draft dated May 17, 2010, with an earlier date of March 22, 2009 also recorded on the document. Unpublished manuscript.
• Exchange, money and price — Shaikh, Anwar, PhD. Outline dated May 14, 2010, with an earlier date of March 22, 2009 also recorded on the document. Unpublished outline.
• Long waves: Theories and chronologies — Shaikh, Anwar, PhD. Undated. Unpublished handwritten notes and chronological table.
• Notes on long waves and great depressions — Shaikh, Anwar, PhD. Undated. Unpublished research notes.
• General points on Marx's theory of money — Shaikh, Anwar, …

Notes On Subdominal Roots And Eigenvalues, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2010, March 6). Data summary and analysis from eigenvalUS 1047to72.xls comparing A-matrix and H-matrix data from 1947 to 1972, referencing Shaikh and Tonak (2010). Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2010). Empirical path of average subdominant root (1972 IO): Notes on standard aggregation and subdominant roots [Unpublished handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (2010, February 12). Output from a Matlab file for standard aggregation of the 1972 IO matrix, including chart showing average subdominant eigenvalue by level of aggregation. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2010, February 8). Subdominant roots: Basic empirical finding for standard aggregation [Unpublished handwritten notes with sticky …

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Jamaica Lloyd Aguilar, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes,

• Shaikh, A. (2010). Jamaica/IMF: Fiscal sustainability, debt exchange operations, and employment [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript notes.

• Shaikh, A. (2010). Exports, debt-to-GDP ratio, interest rates (Hicks), and bank profits [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript notes.

• D’Aguilar, L. (2010, January 16). Discussion for tomorrow: Interest rate regimes, government borrowing, and debt exchange [Email]. Unpublished correspondence.

Intellectual Property And Antitrust Limits On Contract: Comment, Matthew J. Holian, Neil Nguyen

Faculty Publications

In their chapter in Dynamic Competition and Public Policy (2001, Cambridge University Press), Burtis and Kobayashi never defined their model's discount rate, making replicating their simulation results difficult. Through our own simulations, we were able to verify their results when using a discount rate of 0.10. We also identified two new types of equilibria that the authors overlooked, doubling the number of distinct equilibria in the model.

The Persistence Of Accounting Versus Economic Profit, Matthew J. Holian, Ali M. Reza

Faculty Publications

Drawing on Schumpeterian theory, this article presents estimates of a first-order autoregressive model of profit persistence for large US firms, using Economic Value Added (EVA), the popular measure of profits produced by Stern Stewart and Company, and simple (unadjusted) accounting measures from the Compustat database. We hypothesize about the differences we should expect to find between these two sets of estimates, and also provide a fresh normative assessment of the dynamic competitiveness of the US economy.

Rights & Interests: Trade & Disputes, Howard Guille

Human Rights & Human Welfare

A review of:

Trade Imbalance: The Struggle to Weight Human Rights Concerns in Trade Policy-Making. By Susan Ariel Aaronson & Jamie M. Zimmerman. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2008. 337pp.

and

Public Values & Public Interest: Counterbalancing Economic Individualism. By Barry Bozeman. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2007. 219pp.

and

The Impact of the WTO: The Environment, Public Health & Sovereignty. By Trish Kelly. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2007. 220pp.

Peran Aset Nonfisik Dalam Meningkatkan Kinerja Organisasional Pada Ukm Sektor Manufaktur Di Kota Palu, Mauled Moelyono

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

The aim of this research is toanalyze the role of intangible asset in improving organizational performance of Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in manufacture sector in Palu. This research was designed as explanatory research. The sample was determined using stratified proportional random sampling and consists of 175 units of SMEs. The data collected by questionnaire to the directors of the SMEs were analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). This research has successfully proved the role of intangible asset in improving organizational performance through the role of social capital; it is by moderating the influence of business networking and organizational learning to …

Paul Krugman: Kontribusi Dan Kontroversinya, Maddaremmeng A. Panennungi

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

This study isaimed toinvestigate the contribution and controversies of Nobel Prize Winner in Economics in 2008, Paul R. Krugman, in economics field and in the society as a whole. Literature survey method isapplied in thisstudy. It isfound that the Krugman's contribution in theinternational trade is substantial for the development of international trade theory. He is also contributing to development of economic geography. In addition, his contribution to the international finance is also very important eventhough it is not recognized by the Nobel Committee. Out of the economic fields as his main contribution is his capability in bringing the economics into …

Travel And Recreation: Visitors Attractied To Open Space, Wildlife, And Character, Norma P. Nickerson

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

Outlook for 2011 and Review of 2010.

Montana Tourism: 2010 Review And 2011 Outlook, Norma P. Nickerson

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

Outlook for 2011 and Review for 2010.

A Proposal For Early Impact, Persistent, And Cost-Effective Job Creation Policies, Timothy J. Bartik

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Visibility Of Contributions And Cost Of Information: An Experiment On Public Goods, Anya Savikhin, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

We experimentally investigate the impact of visibility of information about contributors on contributions in the public goods game. We systematically consider several treatments that are similar to a wide range of situations in practice. First, we vary the cost of viewing identifiable information about contributors. Second, we vary recognizing all, top or bottom contributors. We find that recognizing all contributors significantly increases contributions relative to the baseline. Recognizing only the top contributors is not significantly different from not recognizing contributors, but recognizing only the bottom contributors is as effective as recognizing all contributors. When viewing information about contributors is costly, …

Fight Or Flight? Defending Against Sequential Attacks In The Game Of Siege, Cary Deck, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

This paper examines theory and behavior in a two-player game of siege, sequential attack and defense. The attacker’s objective is to successfully win at least one battle while the defender’s objective is to win every battle. Theoretically, the defender either folds immediately or, if his valuation is sufficiently high and the number of battles is sufficiently small, then he has a constant incentive to fight in each battle. Attackers respond to defense with diminishing assaults over time. Consistent with theoretical predictions, our experimental results indicate that the probability of successful defense increases in the defenders valuation and it decreases in …

Affecting Policy By Manipulating Prediction Markets: Experimental Evidence, Cary Deck, Shengle Lin, David Porter

ESI Working Papers

Documented results indicate prediction markets effectively aggregate information and form accurate predictions. This has led to a proliferation of markets predicting everything from the results of elections to a company’s sales to movie box office receipts. Recent research suggests prediction markets are robust to manipulation attacks and resulting market outcomes improve forecast accuracy. However, we present evidence from the lab indicating that single‐minded, well‐funded manipulators can in fact destroy a prediction market’s ability to aggregate informative prices and mislead those who are making forecasts based upon market predictions. However, we find that manipulators primarily influence market trades meaning outstanding bids …

Can Markets Save Lives? An Experimental Investigation Of A Market For Organ Donations, Cary Deck, Erik O. Kimbrough

ESI Working Papers

Many people die while waiting for organ transplants even though the number of usable organs is far larger than the number needed for transplant. Governments have devised many policies aimed at increasing available transplant organs with variable success. However, with few exceptions, policy makers are reluctant to establish markets for organs despite the potential for mutually beneficial exchanges. We ask whether organ markets could save lives. Controlled laboratory methods are ideal for this inquiry because human lives would be involved when implementing field trials. Our results suggest that markets can increase the supply of organs available for transplant, but that …

Personality And The Consistency Of Risk Taking Behavior: Experimental Evidence, Cary Deck, Jungmin Lee, Javier Reyes

ESI Working Papers

Researchers have found that an individual’s risk attitude is not stable across elicitation methods. Results reported by Deck et al. (2009) suggest that personality may help explain the apparent inconsistency, offering support to Borghans et al.’s (2008) argument that economists should consider a multi‐domain approach to measuring risk attitudes. This paper uses laboratory methods to compare risk attitudes as measured by the Holt and Laury (2002) procedure under two different frames. We find that, as in Deck et al. (2009), one’s willingness to take financial risks (as measured by Weber et al. 2002) significantly affects behavior; however the effect is …

Perfect And Imperfect Real-Time Monitoring In A Minimum-Effort Game, Cary Deck, Nikos Nikiforakis

ESI Working Papers

This paper presents the results from a minimum-effort game in which individuals can observe the choices of others in real time. We find that under perfect monitoring almost all groups coordinate at the payoff-dominant equilibrium. However, when individuals can only observe the actions of their immediate neighbors in a circle network, monitoring improves neither coordination nor efficiency relative to a baseline treatment without real-time monitoring. We argue that the inefficiency of imperfect monitoring is due to information uncertainty, that is, uncertainty about the interpretation of the information available regarding the actions of others.

Price Increasing Competition? Experimental Evidence, Cary Deck, Jingping Gu

ESI Working Papers

Economic intuition suggests that increased competition generates lower prices. However, recent theoretical work shows that a monopolist may charge a lower price than a firm facing a competitor selling a differentiated product. The direction of the price change when competition is introduced is dependent upon the joint distribution of buyer values for the two products. We explore this relationship using controlled laboratory experiments. Our results indicate that the distribution of buyer values does affect prices in a manner consistent with the theoretical predictions, although price increasing competition is rare due in part to overly intense competition regardless of the distribution …

The Attack And Defense Of Weakest-Link Networks, Dan Kovenock, Brian Roberson, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

This paper experimentally examines behavior in a two-player game of attack and defense of a weakest-link network of targets, in which the attacker‟s objective is to successfully attack at least one target and the defender‟s objective is diametrically opposed. We apply two benchmark contest success functions (CSFs): the auction CSF and the lottery CSF. Consistent with the theoretical prediction, under the auction CSF, attackers utilize a stochastic “guerilla warfare” strategy — in which a single random target is attacked — more than 80% of the time. Under the lottery CSF, attackers utilize the stochastic guerilla warfare strategy almost 45% of …

Durability, Re-Trading And Market Performance, John Dickhaut, Shengle Lin, David Porter, Vernon Smith

ESI Working Papers

Key differential structural characteristics of environments studied in previous market experiments have documented large divergences in their observed performance, particularly discrepancies in their convergence to expected equilibrium outcomes. We investigate why this should be so.

Tracking Berle’S Footsteps: The Trail Of The Modern Corporation’S Last Chapter, William W. Bratton, Michael L. Wachter

Seattle University Law Review

Readers game enough to work through all three hundred pages of The Modern Corporation and Private Property looking for insights on corporate law today encounter two, apparently contradictory, lines of thought. One line, set out in Books II and III, resonates comfortably with today’s shareholder-centered corporate legal theory. Here the book teaches that even as ownership and control have separated, managers should function as trustees for the shareholders and so should exercise their wide-ranging powers for the shareholders’ benefit. The other line of thought emerges in Books I and IV, where The Modern Corporation encases this shareholder trust model in …

Rethinking The Separation Of Ownership From Management In American History, Kenneth Lipartito, Yumiko Morii

Seattle University Law Review

In <em>The Modern Corporation and Private Property</em>, Adolf Berle and Gardiner Means would use AT&T as a prime example of what they saw as a dangerous new trend, the replacement of ownership-based capitalism with giant corporations controlled by a small group of propertyless managers. Indeed, AT&T became Berle and Means’ favorite example. . . . As we shall see, however, the claim that AT&T was a leading example of the separation of ownership from management is incomplete. More importantly, the common interpretation of Berle and Means’ work is mistaken, placing the emphasis incorrectly on the number of shareholders and reading …