Economics Commons^™

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — November 2009, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Compassion: Why It Is Better To Eat Fish, Knowledge@Smu

Knowledge@SMU

Compassion was probably the farthest notion from Colonel Sanders’ mind when he became the global poster boy for delicious fried chicken. He had started his business in the early twentieth century – a period marked by the great depression and two world wars. Prejudices festered under the hostile global climate then, where little consideration was given to the suffering of human beings, much less animals. However, with the progress of time, scientific advancements have urged us, increasingly, to be kinder to fellow humans, animals, the environment… and that we really ought to be munching on fried fish instead.

Sports Franchises, Stadiums, And City Livability: An Examination Of Professional Sports And Crime Rates, Robert Baumann, Bryan Engelhardt, Victor Matheson, Taylor Ciavarra

Economics Department Working Papers

We estimate the impact sporting events have on local crime rates using the technique developed in Arellano and Bond (2001). For events, we consider the presence of MLB, NBA, NFL, and NHL franchises as well as whether a city held one of the respective championships, the Olympics, or World Cup matches. We find little to no evidence that sporting events are correlated with either property or violent crime.

Data Mining As Applied To The Social Sciences, Walter Morris, Dyson School Of Arts And Sciences

Cornerstone 3 Reports : Interdisciplinary Informatics

No abstract provided.

Ethnosymbolism And The Dismemberment Of The State In The Horn Of Africa: The Ethiopian Case Of Ethnic Federalism, Assefa Mehretu

International Conference on African Development Archives

The paper has three major objectives. The first is to do a critical review of the current largely antagonistic narratives of ethnic instrumentalism in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa that have ultimately led to the balkanization of the state and caused serious political instability and fratricidal conflicts with traumatic and costly consequences in the region. The second is to do a critical review of the policy of the current Ethiopian government to implement ethno-territorial formations under the rubric of killils (Amharic for territorial enclosures), and to demonstrate how this may seriously vitiate national integration along compatible cultural and economic …

Latino Middle Class Income-Earners In New York City In 2006, Miriam Jiménez

Center for Latin American, Caribbean, and Latino Studies

Introduction: This study examines demographic and socioeconomic factors of racial/ethnic groups in New York City in 2006 – particularly the income rates of the Latino population.

Methods: Data on Latinos and other racial/ethnic groups were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, reorganized for public use by the Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, IPUMSusa. Cases in the dataset were weighted and analyzed to produce population estimates.

Results: For this study, the middle class refers to those population sectors that fall between $35,000—$59,999 and $ 60,000—$100,000 in annual personal income. Middle-class income earners account for approximately 25.7% of …

Belief-Free Equilibria In Games With Incomplete Information: Characterization And Existence, Johannes Hörner, Stefano Lovo, Tristan Tomala

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We characterize belief-free equilibria in infinitely repeated games with incomplete information with N > 2 players and arbitrary information structures. This characterization involves a new type of individual rational constraint linking the lowest equilibrium payoffs across players. The characterization is tight: we define a set of payoffs that contains all the belief-free equilibrium payoffs; conversely, any point in the interior of this set is a belief-free equilibrium payoff vector when players are sufficiently patient. Further, we provide necessary conditions and sufficient conditions on the information structure for this set to be non-empty, both for the case of known-own payoffs, and for …

Nonparametric Tests Of Conditional Treatment Effects, Sokbae Lee, Yoon-Jae Whang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We develop a general class of nonparametric tests for treatment effects conditional on covariates. We consider a wide spectrum of null and alternative hypotheses regarding conditional treatment effects, including (i) the null hypothesis of the conditional stochastic dominance between treatment and control groups; (ii) the null hypothesis that the conditional average treatment effect is positive for each value of covariates; and (iii) the null hypothesis of no distributional (or average) treatment effect conditional on covariates against a one-sided (or two-sided) alternative hypothesis. The test statistics are based on L 1 -type functionals of uniformly consistent nonparametric kernel estimators of conditional …

On A Markov Game With One-Sided Incomplete Information, Johannes Hörner, Dinah Rosenberg, Eilon Solan, Nicolas Vieille

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We apply the average cost optimality equation to zero-sum Markov games, by considering a simple game with one-sided incomplete information that generalizes an example of Aumann and Maschler (1995). We determine the value and identify the optimal strategies for a range of parameters.

Biased Social Learning, Helios Herrera, Johannes Hörner

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper examines social learning when only one of the two types of decisions is observable. Because agents arrive randomly over time, and only those who invest are observed, later agents face a more complicated inference problem than in the standard model, as the absence of investment might reflect either a choice not to invest, or a lack of arrivals. We show that, as in the standard model, learning is complete if and only if signals are unbounded. If signals are bounded, cascades may occur, and whether they are more or less likely than in the standard model depends on …

Between A Rock And A Soft Place: Ecological And Feminist Economics In Policy Debates, Julie A. Nelson

Economics Faculty Publication Series

The field of ecological economics includes both economic analysis on the one hand, and discussions of normative values and visions for society, on the other. Using feminist insights into cultural beliefs about the relative “hardness” and “softness” of these two sides, this essay discusses how ecological economists can use this unique “between” space in order to better inform policy. The current crisis of global climate change, it is argued, requires that economists move beyond modeling and measurement, while ecological thinkers need to re-examine beliefs about markets and profit.

Path To Financial Inclusion: The Success Of Self-Help Groups-Bank Linkage Program In India, Sivakumar Venkataramany, Balbir B. Bhasin

WCBT Faculty Publications

Financial inclusion has been a major theme in both industrialized and developing economies in the era of financial globalization. When microcredit institutions have received limited success in many countries, microfinance is being used in India for the purpose of accomplishing universal financial inclusion. This paper recognizes the overwhelming efforts of the Government of India and focuses on the success of the linkage between commercial banks and self-help groups (SHGs). The SHGs comprising predominantly women groups help in the social cause of alleviation of poverty, increase of sustainability, reduction of vulnerability, improvement of capacity building and help the weaker sections build …

Argentina, Nov 9 - 14, 2009, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes,

• Santarcángelo, J. (2009, October 23). Email to Anwar Shaikh with American Airlines e-ticket and itinerary for a trip to Buenos Aires. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2009, November 9–14). Typed and handwritten itinerary for trip to Argentina, including talks at the University of General Sarmiento, FLACSO, and the University of Buenos Aires. Unpublished manuscript. Credited to Anwar Shaikh, PhD.

• Guzman, A. N., & Shaikh, A. (2009, October 30–November 2). Email exchange regarding scheduling a meeting in Argentina. Unpublished manuscript.

• Kornblihtt, J., & Shaikh, A. (2009, October 21–23). Email exchange regarding organizing …

Employment And Training Policy In The United States During The Economic Crisis, Christopher J. O'Leary, Randall W. Eberts

Conference Papers

No abstract provided.

Surfing The Waves Of Globalization: Asia And Financial Globalization In The Context Of Trilemma, Joshua Aizenman, Menzie David Chinn, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Using the "trilemma indexes" developed by Aizenman et al. (2008) that measure the extent of achievement in each of the three policy goals in the trilemma—monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and financial openness—this paper examines how policy configurations affect macroeconomic performances with focus on the Asian economies. We find that the three policy choices do not matter for per capita economic growth. However, they do matter for output volatility and the medium-term level of inflation. Greater monetary independence is associated with lower output volatility while greater exchange rate stability implies greater output volatility, which can be mitigated if a country …

Northeast Ohio Entrepreneurship Confidence Survey: Fourth-Year Findings, David O. Kasdan

All Maxine Goodman Levin School of Urban Affairs Publications

The continued objective of the entrepreneurship Confidence Survey is to assess the entrepreneurial climate and entrepreneurs’ confidence in their ability to start and sustain a business in Northeast Ohio. This is the fourth year that the survey has been conducted and the intention is to continue conducting the survey annually for the next several years to identify trends that might emerge. The survey has been constructed to measure respondents’ perceptions regarding several issues, including access to capital, workforce supply, information provided by educational institutions and business support organizations, networking opportunities, government responsiveness, attitudes toward entrepreneurs, adequacy of infrastructure, quality of …

The Knowledge Problem Of New Paternalism, Mario J. Rizzo, Douglas Glen Whitman

BYU Law Review

No abstract provided.

Brokerage Industry Self-Regulation: The Case Of Analysts’ Background Disclosures, Lawrence Brown, Artur Hugon, Hai Lu

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

We evaluate an industry disclosure initiative designed to inform investors, the practice of providing information regarding investment professionals’ backgrounds. Implicit in the motivation for this initiative is the presumed relevance of background information to investors seeking investment professionals’ guidance. We find that analysts with disclosure incidents forecast less accurately than a matched sample of analysts without such disclosures, and that the market views disclosed analysts’ earnings forecasts as less credible than those of the matched sample. Our evidence is consistent with disclosures signaling a persistent analyst characteristic. We conclude that analyst backgrounds are informative regarding both the accuracy and credibility …

What Should Michigan Be Doing To Promote Long-Run Economic Development?, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper argues that Michigan can take cost-effective actions to significantly improve the primary state economic development goal: higher per capita income of Michigan's residents. Higher per capita income of Michigan's residents can be achieved through state policy actions that use cost-effective means to either lower the marginal costs of businesses that expand in the state, or boost the skills of state residents. In this paper, I offer eight ideas for how to lower marginal business costs and boost skills. Four of these ideas focus on lowering marginal business costs. Four other ideas focus on boosting skills. For each of …

Employment And Training Policy In The United States During The Economic Crisis, Christopher J. O'Leary, Randall W. Eberts

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper examines labor market conditions and public employment policies in the United States during what some are calling the Great Recession. We document the dramatic labor market changes that rapidly unfolded when the rate of gross domestic product growth turned negative, from the end of 2007 through early 2009. The paper reviews the resulting stress on labor market support programs and the broad federal response. That response came through modifications to existing programs and the introduction of new mechanisms to help Americans cope with job loss and protracted unemployment. The particular focus is on federally supported public programs for …

Why Did Universities Precede Primary Schools? A Political Economy Model Of Educational Change, Fali Huang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Universities were first established in Europe around the twelfth century, while primary schools did not appear until the nineteenth. This paper accounts for this phenomenon using a political economy model of educational change on who are educated (the elite or the masses) and what is taught (general or specific/vocational education). A key assumption is that general education is more effective than specific education in enhancing one’s skills in a broad range of tasks, including political rent-seeking. Its findings suggest that specific education for the masses is compatible with the elite rule, while mass general education is not, which refines the …

Trade, Growth And Increasing Returns To Infrastructure: The Role Of The Sophisticated Monopolist, Ashok S. Guha, Brishti Guha

Research Collection School Of Economics

Equilibrium in international trade with increasing returns in infrastructure depends on whether the infrastructure provider is “naïve” or sophisticated. A monopolist produces infrastructure under decreasing cost using fixed equipment. Unlike similar work, we derive a unique closed-economy equilibrium. In a small open economy, with “naïve” infrastructure provider(s), multiple equilibria obtain. The industrial export potential of the economy depends on unexhausted economies of scale, and equilibria are possible where manufactures are exported despite an autarky price higher than the world price. With a sophisticated infrastructure provider, even an open economy has a unique equilibrium, which, at least as long as economies …

Automated Likelihood Based Inference For Stochastic Volatility Models, H. Skaug, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Laplace approximation is used to perform maximum likelihood estimation of univariate and multivariate stochastic volatility (SV) models. It is shown that the implementation of the Laplace approximation is greatly simplified by the use of a numerical technique known as automatic differentiation (AD). Several algorithms are proposed and compared with some existing maximum likelihood methods using both simulated data and actual data. It is found that the new methods match the statistical efficiency of the existing methods while significantly reducing the coding effort. Also proposed are simple methods for obtaining the filtered, smoothed and predictive values for the latent variable. …

Dating The Timeline Of Financial Bubbles During The Subprime Crisis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new recursive regression methodology is introduced to analyze the bubble characteristics of various financial time series during the subprime crisis. The methods modify a technique proposed in Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2011) and provide a technology for identifying bubble behavior with consistent dating of their origination and collapse. The tests serve as an early warning diagnostic of bubble activity and a new procedure is introduced for testing bubble migration across markets. Three relevant financial series are investigated, including a financial asset price (a house price index), a commodity price (the crude oil price), and one bond price (the spread …

Explosive Behavior In The 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yangru Wu, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A recursive test procedure is suggested that provides a mechanism for testing explosive behavior, date-stamping the origination and collapse of economic exuberance, and providing valid confidence intervals for explosive growth rates. The method involves the recursive implementation of a right-side unit root test and a sup test, both of which are easy to use in practical applications, and some new limit theory for mildly explosive processes. The test procedure is shown to have discriminatory power in detecting periodically collapsing bubbles, thereby overcoming a weakness in earlier applications of unit root tests for economic bubbles. Some asymptotic properties of the Evans …

Econometric Analysis Of Continuous Time Models: A Survey Of Peter Philip’S Work And Some New Results, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Econometric analysis of continuous time models has drawn the attention of Peter Phillips for nearly 40 years, resulting in many important publications by him. In these publications he has dealt with a wide range of continuous time models and econometric problems, from univariate equations to systems of equations, from asymptotic theory to nite sample issues, from parametric models to nonparametric models, from identication problems to estimation and inference problems, from stationary models to nonstationary and nearly nonstationary models. This paper provides an overview of Peter Phillips' contributions in the continuous time econometrics literature. We review the problems that have been …

Forecasting Realized Volatility Using A Nonnegative Semiparametric Model, Daniel P. A. Preve, Anders Eriksson, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper introduces a parsimonious and yet flexible nonnegative semiparametric model to forecast volatility. The new model extends the linear nonnegative autoregressive model of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2001) and Nielsen and Shephard (2003) by way of a Box-Cox transformation. It is semiparametric in the sense that the dependency structure and the distributional form of its error component are left unspecified. The statistical properties of the model are discussed and a novel estimation method is proposed. Its out-of-sample performance is evaluated against a number of standard methods, using data on S&P 500 monthly realized volatilities. The competing models include the exponential …

Transformation Of The Urban Rail Sector Through Ppp, Sock-Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The recent proliferation of Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects in numerous cities has transformed the urban rail sector. The enthusiasm for PPPs can be explained by improved understanding of efficiency gains and risks of bundling and unbundling tasks as well as availability and lower cost of private sector finance. The four main PPP approaches identified are: (i) development of new systems through DBFOs (Design- Build-Finance-Operate); (ii) concessioning of rail and subway services; (iii) sale of stateowned operators through share issue privatisation; and (iv) PPPs for infrastructure maintenance and upgrading. This paper examines examples of successes and failures to better understand …

Directed Altruism And Enforced Reciprocity In Social Networks, Stephen Leider, Markus M. Mobius, Tanya Rosenblat, Quoc-Anh Do

Research Collection School Of Economics

We conducted online field experiments in large real-world social networks in order to decompose prosocial giving into three components: (1) baseline altruism toward randomly selected strangers, (2) directed altruism that favors friends over random strangers, and (3) giving motivated by the prospect of future interaction. Directed altruism increases giving to friends by 52% relative to random strangers, whereas future interaction effects increase giving by an additional 24% when giving is socially efficient. This finding suggests that future interaction affects giving through a repeated game mechanism where agents can be rewarded for granting efficiency-enhancing favors. We also find that subjects with …

Economic Transition And Growth, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul

Research Collection School Of Economics

Some extensions of neoclassical growth models are discussed that allow for cross-section heterogeneity among economies and evolution in rates of technological progress over time. The models offer a spectrum of transitional behavior among economies that includes convergence to a common steady-state path as well as various forms of transitional divergence and convergence. Mechanisms for modeling such transitions, measuring them econometrically, assessing group behavior and selecting subgroups are developed in the paper. Some econometric issues with the commonly used augmented Solow regressions are pointed out, including problems of endogeneity and omitted variable bias which arise under conditions of transitional heterogeneity. Alternative …