Economics Commons^™

Dynamic Misspecification In Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression, Ioannis Kasparis, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Linear cointegration is known to have the important property of invariance under temporal translation. The same property is shown not to apply for nonlinear cointegration. The requisite limit theory involves sample covariances of integrable transformations of non-stationary sequences and time translated sequences, allowing for the presence of a bandwidth parameter so as to accommodate kernel regression. The theory is an extension of Wang and Phillips (2008) and is useful for the analysis of nonparametric regression models with a misspecified lag structure and in situations where temporal aggregation issues arise. The limit properties of the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) estimator for cointegrating regression …

The Effects Of The Security Environment On Military Expenditures: Pooled Analyses Of 165 Countries, 1950-2000, William D. Nordhaus, John R. Oneal, Bruce Russett

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Countries’ military expenditures differ greatly across both space and time. This study examines the determinants of military spending, with particular reference to the importance of the external security environment. Using the liberal-realist model of international relations, we first estimate the probability that two countries will be involved in a fatal militarized interstate dispute. We then aggregate these ex ante estimates of the likelihood of dyadic conflict, calculating the annual joint probability that a country will be involved in a fatal dispute. This is our measure of the external threat. We then estimate the level of military spending by country and …

Inflationary Equilibrium In A Stochastic Economy With Independent Agents, John Geanakoplos, Ioannis Karatzas, Martin Shubik, William D. Sudderth

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We argue that even when macroeconomic variables are constant, underlying microeconomic uncertainty and borrowing constraints generate inflation. We study stochastic economies with fiat money, a central bank, one nondurable commodity, countably many time periods, and a continuum of agents. The aggregate amount of the commodity remains constant, but the endowments of individual agents fluctuate “independently” in a random fashion from period to period. Agents hold money and, prior to bidding in the commodity market each period, can either borrow from or deposit in a central bank at a fixed rate of interest. If the interest rate is strictly positive, then …

Ethics, Evidence And International Debt, Julie A. Nelson

Economics Faculty Publication Series

The assumption that contracts are largely impersonal, rational, voluntary agreements drawn up between self-interested individual agents is a convenient fiction, necessary for analysis using conventional economic methods. Papers prepared for a recent conference on ethics and international debt were shaped by just such an assumption. The adequacy of this approach is, however, challenged by evidence about who is affected by international debt, how contracts are actually made and followed, the behavior of actors in financial markets, and the motivations of scholars themselves. This essay uses insights from feminist and relational scholarship from several disciplines to analyze the reasons for this …

Reinventing An Innovation Ecology With New Models For Research And Research Parks, Robert G. Wilhelm, Barry L. Burks

Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering: Faculty Publications

A novel effort to reinvent the innovation ecology of the Charlotte region is described. The methods and approaches are particularly relevant for restarting both local and global economies. Addressing requirements for faster innovation and more diverse innovation cycles, the research enterprise of the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, the Charlotte Research Institute, the University Research Park, and a diverse collection of partners are working together to recast university research models and research park paradigms. Best practices are discussed for technology transfer based on interdisciplinary applied research. A novel collaboration model developed by the Charlotte Research Institute is described. Guiding …

Adaptive Policymaking: Evolving And Applying Emergent Solutions For U.S. Communications Policy, Richard S. Whitt

Federal Communications Law Journal

This Article presents some specific ways that U.S. policymakers should use teachings from the latest thinking in economics to create a conceptual framework in order to grapple with current controversies in communications law and regulation. First, it provides a brief overview of Emergence Economics, with an emphasis on the "rough formula" of emergence and the unique role of technological change in creating and furthering innovation and economic growth. Second, this paper explicates the general concept of "Adaptive Policymaking" by governments and includes some proposed guiding principles, an outline of the public policy design space, and an adaptive toolkit to be …

The Non-Linear Effect Of Wealth On Crime, Chihiro Muroi, Robert Baumann

Economics Department Working Papers

Although theory suggests the relationship between crime and wealth is ambiguous, most empirical analyses estimate a monotonic relationship and find that wealth has negative effect on crime. Using two proxies for wealth (median income and poverty rate) and two types of crime (property and violent), we find a quadratic relationship is the best fit for our four crime-wealth groups. In general, the expected negative effect of wealth on crime only applies to wealthier counties. In poorer counties, wealth has an unexpected positive effect on crime. This result may be theoretically consistent, or an unintended byproduct of the Uniform Crime Reports …

Determinants Of Demand Pressure In Nigeria's Foreign Exchange Market: An Empirical Analysis, A. Englama,, H. T. Sanni, O.O. Duke, T.S. Ogunleye, F.U. Isma'il

Economic and Financial Review

This study investigates factors that influenced the demand pressure in the foreign exchange market prior to the recent reforms. We examined the theoretical issues and empirically measured the determinants of the demand pressure in Nigeria’s foreign exchange market. We adopted a simple ordinary least square (OLS) to estimate the impact of exogenous variable on the dependable variable. We found from the empirical results that brand pressure was prevalent during the past period. From the literature, demand pressure m s attributed to a number of factors which include, among others, the high incidence of currency substitution arising from speculative trading, liquidity …

Determinants Of Capital Flows In Nigeria And Challenges For Macroeconomic Stability, A. Englama, N. C. Oputa, G. K. Sanni, M. U. Yakub, O. Adesanya, Z. Sanni

Economic and Financial Review

Capital flows into developing countries in the 1960s through the 1980s were mainly in the form of overseas development assistant (ODS) to governments as well as private capital through domestic multinational bank. Nigeria, like unit developing countries, is characterized by a low' level of domestic savings and in order to attain a desirable level of investment that would guarantee sustainable development, the economy needs some foreign sayings to bridge the savings investment gap. These savings come in the form of 'new money’ or capital inflows which are expected to provide financial capital for economic activities. Foreign participation is directed associated …

Determination Of Interest Rate Saharan African Countries: A Analysis., A. O. Folawewo, E. A. Udeaja

Economic and Financial Review

A major indicator of banking sector efficiency is interest rate spreads (IRS), which have been found to be very high in African countries. This paper analysed the determinants of interest rate spreads in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) from a macro perspective, that is, using aggregate banking sector data, and focusing macroeconomic and market determinants. The study used ex-ante measure of spreads, that is, differences between interest rates on lending and deposit. Using annual data covering 33 countries, the result to obtained from the paper suggested that different market and macroeconomic policy variables played significant role in explaining variation in IRS in …

Effects Of Poverty On Risk Attitudes Of Farmers In Benue State Nigeria, G. C. Aye, O. Oji

Economic and Financial Review

The Nigerian agriculture is characterised by low productivity low fam incomes and low levels of

technological adoption and we inefficient production technique. This poor state of Nigerian agriculture is related to farmers' attitude towards risk in the adoption of production techniques, as well as risk in the production and socioeconomic environment, this study therefore sought to specifically to: determine the extent of poverty among farmers in the area; assess the risk attitude of the farmers and determine the effect of poverty variables on risk attitude of farmers. A multi-stage random sampling technique was used for selection of respondent. Data were …

A Paradox Of Inconsistent Parametric And Consistent Nonparametric Regression, Peter C.B. Phillips, Liangjun Su

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper explores a paradox discovered in recent work by Phillips and Su (2009). That paper gave an example in which nonparametric regression is consistent whereas parametric regression is inconsistent even when the true regression functional form is known and used in regression. This appears to be a paradox, as knowing the true functional form should not in general be detrimental in regression. In the present case, local regression methods turn out to have a distinct advantage because of endogeneity in the regressor. The paradox arises because additional correct information is not necessarily advantageous when information is incomplete. In the …

Nonparametric Structural Estimation Via Continuous Location Shifts In An Endogenous Regressor, Peter C.B. Phillips, Liangjun Su

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Recent work by Wang and Phillips (2009b, c) has shown that ill posed inverse problems do not arise in nonstationary nonparametric regression and there is no need for nonparametric instrumental variable estimation. Instead, simple Nadaraya Watson nonparametric estimation of a (possibly nonlinear) cointegrating regression equation is consistent with a limiting (mixed) normal distribution irrespective of the endogeneity in the regressor, near integration as well as integration in the regressor, and serial dependence in the regression equation. The present paper shows that some closely related results apply in the case of structural nonparametric regression with independent data when there are continuous …

Is Fairness In The Eye Of The Beholder?: An Impartial Spectator Analysis Of Justice, James Konow

Economics Faculty Works

A popular sentiment is that fairness is inexorably subjective and incapable of being determined by objective standards. This study, on the other hand, seeks to establish evidence on unbiased justice and to propose and demonstrate a general approach for measuring impartial views empirically. Most normative justice theories associate impartiality with limited information and consensus. In both the normative and positive literature, information is usually seen as the raw material for self-serving bias and disagreement. In contrast, this paper proposes a type of impartiality that is associated with a high level of information and that results in consensus. The crucial distinction …

Metropolitan Report – June 2009, Division Of Business And Economic Research, College Of Business Administration, University Of New Orleans

UNO Metropolitan Report (1986-2017)

No abstract provided.

Northeast Ohio Economic Brief, John F. Brennan

All Maxine Goodman Levin School of Urban Affairs Publications

No abstract provided.

Estimated State And Local Fiscal Effects Of The Nurse Family Partnership Program, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This short paper estimates the state and local fiscal benefits of the Nurse Family Partnership (NFP) program. NFP provides nurse home visiting services to low-income first-time mothers. In addition to social benefits, NFP provides state and local fiscal benefits by reducing costs of social services, welfare, and crime, and increasing tax receipts due to increased earnings of mothers and former child participants when they grow up. Based on previous studies, this paper estimates that the present value, in 2007 dollars, of these state and local fiscal benefits is a little over $15,000 per NFP case.

Methodology For Adjusting Gpra Workforce Development Program Performance Targets For The Effects Of Business Cycles, Timothy J. Bartik, Randall W. Eberts, Wei-Jang Huang

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The U.S. Department of Labor's Employment and Training Administration issued Training and Employment Guidance Letter (TEGL) 09-08 Change 1 on June 5, 2009. This guidance letter revises the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) performance measures for federal workforce development programs to take into account the effect of the recession on participants' labor market and educational outcomes. As described in the TEGL, the performance targets of the various workforce development programs have been developed for use for the years PY2008 through PY2010. They are intended to be used for PY2009 performance target negotiations and will appear in the President's Budget …

Peter Danner 1921-2008, John B. Davis

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

No abstract provided.

New Mexico Labor Market Review 06-01-2009, New Mexico Department Of Workforce Solutions

Historic Publications

The New Mexico Labor Market Review is a monthly publication presenting statistical data and analysis on labor market conditions throughout New Mexico. Issues examine statewide and regional trends in employment, unemployment, labor force estimates, industry activity, wages, occupational demand, and related economic conditions, often accompanied by feature articles on topics affecting the state’s economy. This issue covers April 2009.

A Survey Of Perspectives On Intergovernmental Relations: A Comparative Analysis Of The Czech And Slovak Republics, Phillip J. Bryson, Gary C. Cornia, Scott M. Smith

Faculty Publications

The results of a survey of local government officials from the Slovak and Czech Republics taken in December of 2005 are presented and analyzed. Attitudes about and perspectives of intergovernmental fiscal relations in the two republics are probed. Differences and similarities in Czech and Slovak views are established regarding some of the perceptions of: local autonomy and the sufficiency of available funds; whether or not public services are supplied by the appropriate levels of government; the potential benefits of adopting a serious rather than a nominal property tax; and the flexibility of local budget planning in Czech and Slovak cities …

Auction Design And Tacit Collusion In Fcc Spectrum Auctions, Patrick Bajari, Jungwon Yeo

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has used auctions to award spectrum since 1994. During this time period, the FCC has experimented with a variety of auctions rules including click box bidding and anonymous bidding. These rule changes make the actions of bidders less visible during the auction and also limit the set of bids that can be submitted during a particular round. Economic theory suggests that tacit collusion may be more difficult as a result. We examine this proposition using data from four auctions: the PCS-C Block, the PCS-C&F Block Reauction, the Advanced Wireless Service auction and the 700 MHz …

A Two-Stage Realized Volatility Approach To Estimation Of Diffusion Processes With Discrete Data, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper motivates and introduces a two-stage method of estimating diffusion processes based on discretely sampled observations. In the first stage we make use of the feasible central limit theory for realized volatility, as developed in [Jacod, J., 1994. Limit of random measures associated with the increments of a Brownian semiartingal. Working paper, Laboratoire de Probabilities, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris] and [Barndorff-Nielsen, O., Shephard, N., 2002. Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, 64, 253-280], to provide a regression model for estimating the parameters …

An Empirical Analysis Of Stock Market Integration: Comparison Study Of Singapore And Malaysia, Zheng Yi, Swee Liang Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Using a GARCH (1,1) model, this paper compares the extent to which financial sector liberalization in Singapore and Malaysia each has led to integration of its domestic equity market with external markets. The results show that the level of integration of the domestic markets with the external markets is higher when MSCI regional and global data are used, as compared to when individual country data are used to proxy regional and global markets. Inferences are made about the preferred pace of liberalization in Singapore, as well as, the impact of the Asian financial crisis and capital control measures imposed in …

What Do We Expect From Our Friends?, Stephen Leider, Markus M. Mobius, Tanya S. Rosenblat, Quoc-Anh Do

Research Collection School Of Economics

We conduct a field experiment in a large real-world social network to examine how subjects expect to be treated by their friends and by strangers who make allocation decisions in modified dictator games. Although recipients’ beliefs accurately account for the extent to which friends will choose more generous allocations than strangers (i.e., directed altruism), recipients are not able to anticipate individual differences in the baseline altruism of allocators (measured by giving to an unnamed recipient, which is predictive of generosity toward named recipients). Recipients who are direct friends with the allocator, or even recipients with many common friends, are no …

Study On Singapore's Experience Of Regional Economic Cooperation, John Wong, Kim Song Tan, Yang Mu, Sarah Tong, Tim Seng Lim, Chee Kia Lim

Research Collection School Of Economics

Singapore and Hong Kong share many similarities in their growth experiences and challenges. Both were traditionally entrepot economies and service hubs for their hinterlands – China for Hong Kong, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), in general but Malaysia and Indonesia in particular, in the case of Singapore. The two economies have gone through major structural changes over the years in response to changes in the global economy and in their relationships with their respective hinterlands. The changing relationships with their hinterlands play a crucial role in driving their external economic policies.

Subsidies For Fdi: Implications From A Model With Heterogeneous Firms, Davin Chor

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper analyzes the welfare effects of subsidies to attract multinational corporations when firms are heterogeneous in their productivity levels. I show that the use of a small subsidy raises welfare in the FDI host country, with the consumption gains from attracting more multinationals exceeding the direct cost of funding the subsidy program through a tax on labor income. This welfare gain stems from a selection effect, whereby the subsidy induces only the most productive exporters to switch to servicing the host's market via FDI. I further show that for the same total subsidy bill, a subsidy to variable costs …

Econometric Theory And Practice, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Econometrics has been evolving as a discipline over the last decade in a way that has successfully brought theory and practice much closer together. Many of the developments are associated with laptop computing, the increasing availability of electronic databases, and the convenience of modern econometric software and matrix programming languages. The changes that have occurred affect us at every level as teachers, researchers, practitioners, readers, reviewers, and authors. No journal can stand still in the face of such changes. This editorial speaks to these changes and the way they impact our subject, our authors, and our readership.

Econometric Theory And Practice, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Econometrics has been evolving as a discipline over the last decade in a way that has successfully brought theory and practice much closer together. Many of the developments are associated with laptop computing, the increasing availability of electronic databases, and the convenience of modern econometric software and matrix programming languages. The changes that have occurred affect us at every level as teachers, researchers, practitioners, readers, reviewers, and authors. No journal can stand still in the face of such changes. This editorial speaks to these changes and the way they impact our subject, our authors, and our readership.

Discrete Choice Modeling With Nonstationary Panels Applied To Exchange Rate Regime Choice, Sainan Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops a regression limit theory for discrete choice nonstationary panels with large cross section (N) and time series (T) dimensions. Some results emerging from this theory are directly applicable in the wider context of M-estimation. This includes an extension of work by Wooldridge [Wooldridge, J.M., 1994. Estimation and Inference for Dependent Processes. In: Engle, R.F., McFadden, D.L. (Eds.). Handbook of Econometrics, vol. 4, North-Holland, Amsterdam] on the limit theory of local extremum estimators to multi-indexed processes in nonlinear nonstationary panel data models. It is shown that the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator is consistent without an incidental parameters problem …