Economics Commons^™

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — August 2009, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Male Metal Goat Wanted: Why Our Children’S Futures May Lie In The Stars, Knowledge@Smu

Knowledge@SMU

The birth of a child is usually a joyous occasion. In many Asian societies, it also represents an important milestone for families - so important that spiritual mediums have to be consulted and fortunes told, for there are auspicious and inauspicious times to bear a child. While the idea of birth planning by means of star-gazing may sound ludicrous, research has shown that ‘auspicious children’ do indeed fare better. Are there mystical powers at play? A study of child births and children in Vietnam provides an unusual take on the motivating factors behind a child’s future.

The Spectacle Of Neoclassical Economics: The Chad-Cameroon Petroleum Development Project And Exploitation In The Niger Delta And The Chad Basin, Nicholas A. Jackson

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

In recent years, neoclassical economic literature has undergone a fundamental change of emphasis, from orthodox neoclassical to neoinstitutional theory. World Bank research and high-level policy departments have reflected this change by shifting from development as ‘structural adjustment’ to development as ‘governance’. I engage the case of the Chad-Cameroon Petroleum Development Project (CCPDP) to argue that the neoclassical economic shift is a spectacle or exhibit, irrelevant in important ways to exploitation “on the ground.” Contrary to neoclassical economics and World Bank development rationales, the CCPDP is a hyper-documented project with a hyperrestricted scope, typical of commodity exploitation in Central Africa and …

Why Default On U.S. Treasuries Is Likely, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Fiscal Policy Cyclicality And Growth Within The U.S. States, Ayako Kondo, Justin Svec

Economics Department Working Papers

We exploit differences in the stringency of balanced budget rules across US states to estimate the effect of fiscal policy cyclicality on state GDP growth. While most states have passed laws restricting deficits, the nature and strictness of these laws vary greatly. States with more stringent balanced budget restrictions run more procyclical fiscal policy. We use the diversity in these laws as an instrument for the cyclicality of state government spending. We find modest evidence that more counter-cyclical public expenditure increases a state's average growth rate per capita. Further, our point estimates suggest that a state could increase its annual …

Financial Globalization And Crisis: The Role Of Local Financial Markets, Xin Chen

All Theses

In this paper, I provide a specific channel through which financial development helps economic growth: by reducing the incidence of crises and making them less severe. To support this, I examine the various links among financial markets development, financial crisis, and GDP growth rate. My empirical estimates, using cross-country data from 1980 to 2007, show a statistically significant and economically relevant effect among these variables: countries with better local financial markets can largely decrease the frequency of occurrence of financial crisis, and that efficient banking systems can alleviate the adverse impact of banking crisis on output lost for the long-run, …

The Case For Trills: Giving The People And Their Pension Funds A Stake In The Wealth Of The Nation, Mark Kamstra, Robert J. Shiller

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We make the case for the U.S. government to issue a new security with a coupon tied to the United States’ current dollar GDP. This security might pay, for example, a coupon of one-trillionth of the GDP, and we propose the name “Trill” be used to refer to this new security. This new debt instrument should be of great interest to the Government for its stabilizing influence on the budget (as coupon payments fall in a recession with declining tax revenues) and for its yield, based on our valuation. Standard asset pricing analysis also suggests that Trills would enable important …

Optimal Comparison Of Misspecified Moment Restriction Models Under A Chosen Measure Of Fit, Vadim Marmer, Taisuke Otsu

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Suppose that the econometrician is interested in comparing two misspecified moment restriction models, where the comparison is performed in terms of some chosen measure of fit. This paper is concerned with describing an optimal test of the Vuong (1989) and Rivers and Vuong (2002) type null hypothesis that the two models are equivalent under the given measure of fit (the ranking may vary for different measures). We adopt the generalized Neyman-Pearson optimality criterion, which focuses on the decay rates of the type I and II error probabilities under fixed non-local alternatives, and derive an optimal but practically infeasible test. Then, …

Subjectivity In Inductive Inference, Itzhak Gilboa, Larry Samuelson

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper examines circumstances under which subjectivity enhances the effectiveness of inductive reasoning. We consider a game in which Fate chooses a data generating process and agents are characterized by inference rules that may be purely objective (or data-based) or may incorporate subjective considerations. The basic intuition is that agents who invoke no subjective considerations are doomed to “overfit” the data and therefore engage in ineffective learning. The analysis places no computational or memory limitations on the agents — the role for subjectivity emerges in the presence of unlimited reasoning powers.

Hyperbolic Discounting Is Rational: Valuing The Far Future With Uncertain Discount Rates, J. Doyne Farmer, John Geanakoplos

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Conventional economics supposes that agents value the present vs. the future using an exponential discounting function. In contrast, experiments with animals and humans suggest that agents are better described as hyperbolic discounters, whose discount function decays much more slowly at large times, as a power law. This is generally regarded as being time inconsistent or irrational. We show that when agents cannot be sure of their own future one-period discount rates, then hyperbolic discounting can become rational and exponential discounting irrational. This has important implications for environmental economics, as it implies a much larger weight for the far future.

Robustness, Infinitesimal Neighborhoods, And Moment Restrictions, Yuichi Kitamura, Taisuke Otsu, Kirill Evdokomov

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper is concerned with robust estimation under moment restrictions. A moment restriction model is semiparametric and distribution-free, therefore it imposes mild assumptions. Yet it is reasonable to expect that the probability law of observations may have some deviations from the ideal distribution being modeled, due to various factors such as measurement errors. It is then sensible to seek an estimation procedure that are robust against slight perturbation in the probability measure that generates observations. This paper considers local deviations within shrinking topological neighborhoods to develop its large sample theory, so that both bias and variance matter asymptotically. The main …

Nonparametric Identification Of Multinomial Choice Demand Models With Heterogeneous Consumers, Steven T. Berry, Philip A. Haile

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We consider identification of nonparametric random utility models of multinomial choice using “micro data,” i.e., observation of the characteristics and choices of individual consumers. Our model of preferences nests random coefficients discrete choice models widely used in practice with parametric functional form and distributional assumptions. However, the model is nonparametric and distribution free. It allows choice-specific unobservables, endogenous choice characteristics, unknown heteroskedasticity, and high-dimensional correlated taste shocks. Under standard “large support” and instrumental variables assumptions, we show identifiability of the random utility model. We demonstrate robustness of these results to relaxation of the large support condition and show that when …

Nonparametric Estimation In Random Coefficients Binary Choice Models, Eric Gautier, Yuichi Kitamura

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper considers random coefficients binary choice models. The main goal is to estimate the density of the random coefficients nonparametrically. This is an ill-posed inverse problem characterized by an integral transform. A new density estimator for the random coefficients is developed, utilizing Fourier-Laplace series on spheres. This approach offers a clear insight on the identification problem. More importantly, it leads to a closed form estimator formula that yields a simple plug-in procedure requiring no numerical optimization. The new estimator, therefore, is easy to implement in empirical applications, while being flexible about the treatment of unobserved heterogeneity. Extensions including treatments …

On The Asymptotic Optimality Of Empirical Likelihood For Testing Moment Restrictions, Yuichi Kitamura, Andres Santos, Azeem M. Shaikh

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In this paper we make two contributions. First, we show by example that empirical likelihood and other commonly used tests for parametric moment restrictions, including the GMM-based J -test of Hansen (1982), are unable to control the rate at which the probability of a Type I error tends to zero. From this it follows that, for the optimality claim for empirical likelihood in Kitamura (2001) to hold, additional assumptions and qualifications need to be introduced. The example also reveals that empirical and parametric likelihood may have non-negligible differences for the types of properties we consider, even in models in which …

The Very Basics Of Sustainability - An Alternative Viewpoint (Slides With Audio) (Large File! To Speed Up Download, Right-Click On "Download" Link To Save To Own Pc.), Jim Mcgovern

Other resources

This presentation sets out the very basics of ‘sustainability’, although a definition of sustainability is not attempted. Some of the very basics are the context in which the Earth and humankind exist in space and time, the Earth’s climate, the Earth’s population and humankind’s options and choices. The author advocates keeping an open mind on all available options, including the use of oil, gas, coal, tar sands, carbon capture and sequestration, nuclear power etc., as well as the technologies that are more widely considered ‘green’. The author also argues that, in addressing the challenges that humankind faces, globally concerted effort …

The Divergence Of Legal Procedures, Aron Balas, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-De-Silanes, Andrei Shleifer

Dartmouth Scholarship

Simeon Djankov et al. (2003) introduce a measure of the quality of contract enforcement -- the formalism of civil procedure -- for 109 countries as of 2000. For 40 of these countries, we compute procedural formalism every year since 1950. We find that large differences in procedural formalism between common and civil law countries existed in 1950 and widened by 2000. For this area of law, the findings are inconsistent with the hypothesis that national legal systems are converging, and support the view that legal origins exert long lasting influence on legal rules. (JEL K41, O17)

Congressional Support For Campaign Finance Reform And Climate Legislation, Bryan Buckley

All Dissertations

This dissertation explores two types of legislation, campaign finance reform and climate
change legislation, in order to examine the determinants of congressional voting on these acts. Chapter One outlines a theoretical model based on a model by Denzau and Munger (1989) that predicts that Representatives will vote for campaign finance reform if it improves their campaign contribution position relative to that of their opponents, rather than improves their position absolutely. Empirical estimates show that this is in fact the case and that voting on the 2002 Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act was based on this rather than on party as others …

Myopic Voters And Natural Disaster Policy, Andrew Healy, Neil Malhorta

Economics Faculty Works

Do voters effectively hold elected officials accountable for policy decisions? Using data on natural disasters, government spending, and election returns, we show that voters reward the incumbent presidential party for delivering disaster relief spending, but not for investing in disaster preparedness spending. These inconsistencies distort the incentives of public officials, leading the government to underinvest in disaster preparedness, thereby causing substantial public welfare losses. We estimate that $1 spent on preparedness is worth about $15 in terms of the future damage it mitigates. By estimating both the determinants of policy decisions and the consequences of those policies, we provide more …

Metropolitan Report - August 2009, Division Of Business And Economic Research, College Of Business Administration, University Of New Orleans

UNO Metropolitan Report (1986-2017)

No abstract provided.

Soft Budgets And Renegotiations In Public-Private Partnerships, Eduardo Engel, Ronald Fischer, Alexander Galetovic

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are increasingly used to provide infrastructure services. Even though PPPs have the potential to increase efficiency and improve resource allocation, contract renegotiations have been pervasive. We show that existing accounting standards allow governments to renegotiate PPP contracts and elude spending limits. Our model of renegotiations leads to observable predictions: (i) in a competitive market, firms lowball their offers, expecting to break even through renegotiation, (ii) renegotiations compensate lowballing and pay for additional expenditure, (iii) governments use renegotiation to increase spending and shift the burden of payments to future administrations, and (iv) there are significant renegotiations in the …

The Nasa Glenn Research Center: An Economic Impact Study Fiscal Year 2008, Iryna Lendel

All Maxine Goodman Levin School of Urban Affairs Publications

No abstract provided.

Hedonic Analysis Of The Willingness To Pay For Fuel Efficiency In The Australian Automobile Market, Michael Perkins

All Theses

The implicit prices of automobile attributes are estimated with a hedonic model of new automobiles sold in the 2005 Australian market. The estimated marginal value of decreased fuel consumption is found to be positively valued by drivers and car manufacturers. A comparison of explicit fuel savings estimated with Australian automobile market statistics to the implicit fuel savings estimated with the hedonic regression indicates that new automobile buyers accurately value the fuel cost savings associated with reductions in fuel consumption.

The Impact Of Drm Technology In The P2p Age, Ying Xin

All Theses

The innovation of P2P technology in digital world challenges the present copyright institutions and retailers. People are declined to look for the protection from the traditional law in digital circumstance. As the trend of extending copyright protection term across the world, most intellectual property institutions implement new technologies to deal with such situation. This paper uses a panel of country-level data to investigate the extent to which this is a consequence of the extension of copyright protection. Utilizing the economic model, the analysis suggests that the economic effects of implementing DRM technology are generally negative, albeit uncertain. The available evidence …

Gatt/Wto Promotes Trade Strongly: Sample Selection And Model Specification, Xuepeng Liu

Faculty Articles

Some recent empirical studies examine the impact of the GATT/WTO on trade. This paper investigates the sample selection bias and the gravity model specification issues in the literature. First, the GATT/WTO not only makes existing trading partners trade more at the intensive margin, but also creates new trading relationships at the extensive margin. Most existing papers exclude zero trade observations and hence ignore the extensive margin. Secondly, due to the violation of some maintained assumptions, the traditional log-linear gravity regressions fail to uncover the role of the GATT/WTO even at the intensive margin. Using a large bilateral panel dataset including …

U.S. Training And Re-Training Programs In The Economic Crisis, Randall W. Eberts

Periodical Articles

No abstract provided.

On The Battleground Of Environmental And Competition Policy: The Renewable Electricity Market, Matyas Tamas Meszaros

Dissertations

Renewable energy resources have become increasingly important in the effort to provide energy security and to fight global warming. In the last decade environmental policy has increased the support for renewable electricity. At the same time the electricity sector was often subject to antitrust investigation because of relevant market concentration and market power. This dissertation looks at the renewable electricity market to analyze the effect of environmental policy on competition.

The first chapter provides a short introduction to the regulatory schemes employed in electricity markets. The second chapter analyzes the demand side of the electricity market. The estimations show that …

Heterogeneity In Returns To Work Experience: A Dynamic Model Of Female Labor Force Participation, Ken Yamada

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides structural estimates of heterogeneous returns to work experience for Japanese married women. A dynamic model of labor force participation is used to account for dynamic selfselection into employment. Heterogeneity is incorporated into the model in a way that allows for the multidimensional skill heterogeneity in employment and home production and for the individual-specific slope and curvature of experience effect on earnings. The structural estimates and their comparison to the reduced-form estimates highlight the importance of dynamic self-selection into employment and heterogeneity in returns to work experience.

Power Maximization And Size Control In Heteroskedasticity And Autocorrelation Robust Tests With Exponentiated Kernels, Yixiao Sun, Peter C. B. Phillips, Sainan Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

Using the power kernels of Phillips, Sun and Jin (2006, 2007), we examine the large sample asymptotic properties of the t-test for different choices of power parameter (rho). We show that the nonstandard fixed-rho limit distributions of the t-statistic provide more accurate approximations to the finite sample distributions than the conventional large-rho limit distribution. We prove that the second-order corrected critical value based on an asymptotic expansion of the nonstandard limit distribution is also second-order correct under the large-rho asymptotics. As a further contribution, we propose a new practical procedure for selecting the test-optimal power parameter that addresses the central …

Implementation With Near Complete Information: The Case Of Subgame Perfection, Takashi Kunimoto, Olivier Tercieux

Research Collection School Of Economics

While monotonicity is a necessary and almost sufficient condition for Nash implementationand often a demanding one, almost any (non-monotonic, for instance) socialchoice rule can be implemented using undominated Nash or subgame perfect equilibrium.By requiring solution concepts to have closed graph in the limit of completeinformation, Chung and Ely (2003) show that only monotonic social choice rules canbe implemented in the closure of the undominated Nash equilibrium correspondence.In this paper, we show that only monotonic social choice rules can be implemented inthe closure of the subgame perfect equilibrium/sequential equilibrium correspondence.Our robustness result helps understand the limits of subgame pefect implementation,which is …

Subnational Credit Rating: A Comparative Review, Lili Liu, Kim Song Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper surveys methodological issues in subnational credit ratings and highlights key challenges for developing countries. Subnational borrowing from capital markets has been on the rise owing to fiscal decentralization and demand for infrastructure investments. A prerequisite for accessing capital markets, subnational credit ratings have also emerged as a part of broader reform for fiscal sustainability. They facilitate a more transparent budgetary and financial management system. The global financial crisis makes subnational credit ratings more relevant, as they contribute to fiscal risk evaluations and fiscal adjustment. In addition to subnationals’ own credit strength, the creditworthiness of the sovereign and the …