Economics Commons^™

Multivariate Stochastic Volatility, Manabu Asai, Michael Mcaleer, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The literature on multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) models has developed significantly over the last few years. This paper reviews the substantial literature on specification, estimation and evaluation of MSV models. A wide range of MSV models is presented according to various categories, namely (i) asymmetric models; (ii) factor models; (iii) time-varying correlation models; and (iv) alternative MSV specifications, including models based on the matrix exponential transformation, Cholesky decomposition, Wishart autoregressive process, and the empirical range. Alternative methods of estimation, including quasi-maximum likelihood, simulated maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo likelihood, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, are discussed and compared. Various methods …

New Mexico Labor Market Review 11-30-2006, New Mexico Department Of Labor

Historic Publications

This issue of the New Mexico Labor Market Review presents October 2006 employment, unemployment, wage, and economic activity data for New Mexico, its counties, and metropolitan areas.

The Shadow Workforce: Perspectives On Contingent Work In The United States, Japan, And Europe, Sandra E. Gleason Editor

Upjohn Press

This book provides a comprehensive overview of the state of nonstandard employment and its impact on employees, businesses, unions, and public policy. It not only reveals how nonstandard employment operates in the United States, Japan, and Europe, it also highlights the important similarities and differences in the labor market issues faced in those areas.

The De-Gentrification Of New Markets Tax Credits, Roger M. Groves

ExpressO

This article provides the most comprehensive analysis to date of the New Markets Tax Credits program established by Congress. The purpose of the NMTCs is to use tax credits as incentives for investors to provide equity funds into low income areas. The article reveals that over $2 billion of federal tax subsidies that have been allocated to gentrified projects for the wealthy, rather than the intended beneficiaries – low income residents in the urban core – as Congress intended. The article proposes amendments to the statute and regulations to close unintended loopholes.

Tradeoffs In Formulating A Consistent National Policy On Adoption, Mary Eschelbach Hansen, Daniel Pollack

ExpressO

Just as the courts must consider the tradeoff between the best interest of the child and parental rights in involuntary termination of parental rights, policy on international adoption must consider the tradeoffs between the best interest of the child and the long-term interests of the nation. We argue that countries that suspend international adoptions do not maximize social welfare. A consistent national policy to maximize the well-being of the children and society at large would be to devote resources today to the oversight of international adoption in accord with child protections under the Hague Convention, while at the same time …

Contractarianism, Contractualism, And The Law Of Corporate Insolvency, Riz Mokal

ExpressO

What is the appropriate way of theorising about corporate bankruptcy law? That lies, argues this paper, in rejecting Pareto and Kaldor-Hicks efficiency in favour of a particular conception of transaction cost efficiency, and in rejecting the ‘contractarian’ Creditors’ Bargain Model in favour of the ‘contractualist’ Authentic Consent Model. The paper vindicates these arguments with an analysis of the automatic stay which characterises the collective liquidation regime, of the pari passu principle often said to be at the heart of this regime, and of the liability imposed in some jurisdictions on the managers of terminally distressed companies for failing to take …

Privatization And The Law And Economics Of Political Advocacy, Alexander Volokh

ExpressO

A common argument against privatization is that private providers, motivated by self-interest, will advocate changes in substantive policy. In this Article, I evaluate this argument, using, as a case study, the argument against prison privatization based on the possibility that the private prison industry will distort the criminal law by advocating incarceration.

This “political influence” argument applies at least as well to public provision: Government agencies, too, lobby for changes in substantive law. In the prison industry, for instance, it is unclear whether private firms advocate incarceration to any significant extent, but public guard unions are known to do so …

Development Of Asian Bond Markets: Current Situation And Future Prospects, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse

Historical and empirical studies carried out during the last several decades have amply demonstrated that an effectively functioning financial system is linked to economic growth, macroeconomic stability and poverty reduction. What are the mechanisms through which financial system plays such an important role? First the financial system is the main conduit through which funds are transferred in exchange of goods, services or promises of future return. Second, it mobilizes savings from those who have surplus disposable funds and allocates these funds among the efficient and productive investors for expansion of the economy. Third, it transforms risk through aggregation from a …

Islamic Finance Industry: Positioned For Growth, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse

The achievements made by Islamic Finance Industry during the last few years have indeed been impressive. The growth rate of 15-20% annually, the evolution of sukuks, fixed income, equity, money market instruments and the attraction of Islamic products among a large variety of issuers and investors globally have been the salient features that have characterized the Islamic Finance Industry (IFI). What I propose to do this afternoon is to spell out the challenges that the industry has to meet during the next several years to integrate itself within the framework of global financial system. First, the host country leadership in …

How Do The Effects Of Local Growth On Employment Rates Vary With Initial Labor Market Conditions?, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Policy Papers

This paper examines how the effects of increased employment growth on a metropolitan area’s employment to population ratio varies with the initial tightness of the metropolitan area’s labor market. This examination is relevant to evaluating the benefits of local economic development policies in different metropolitan areas. Much of the benefits of such policies are in higher employment rates. The empirical estimates suggest that the effectiveness of employment growth in increasing the employment to population ratio is lower in metropolitan areas with “tight” labor markets. In addition, some estimates suggest that growth has the greatest long-run effects on the employment to …

Estimating Heterogeneous Capacity And Capacity Utilization In A Multi-Species Fishery, Ronald G. Felthoven, William C. Horrace, Kurt E. Schnier

Economics - All Scholarship

We use a stochastic production frontier model to investigate the presence of heterogeneous production and its impact on fleet capacity and capacity utilization in a multi-species fishery. Furthermore, we propose a new fleet capacity estimate that incorporates complete information on the stochastic differences between each vessel-specific technical efficiency distribution. Results indicate that ignoring heterogeneity in production technologies within a multi-species fishery, as well as the complete distribution of a vessel’s technical efficiency score, may yield erroneous fleet-wide production profiles and estimates of capacity. Furthermore, our new estimate of capacity enables out-of-sample production predictions predicated on either homogeneity or heterogeneity modeling …

November 2006, Syracuse Department Of Economics

Economics - All Scholarship

No abstract provided.

Estimating Heterogeneous Capacity And Capacity Utilization In A Multi-Species Fishery, Ronald G. Feltoven, William C. Horrace, Kurt E. Schnier

Economics - All Scholarship

We use a stochastic production frontier model to investigate the presence of heterogeneous production and its impact on fleet capacity and capacity utilization in a multi-species fishery. We propose a new fleet capacity estimate that incorporates complete information on the stochastic differences between vessel-specific technical efficiency distributions. Results indicate that ignoring heterogeneity in production technologies within a multispecies fishery as well as the complete distribution of a vessel’s technical efficiency score, may lead to erroneous fleet-wide production profiles and estimates of capacity. Our new estimate of capacity enables out-of-sample production predictions which may be useful to policy makers.

Opposing The Lottery In The U.S.: The Forces Behind Individual Attitudes Towards Legalization In 1975, Andrew J. Economopoulos

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

In the 1970s, opposition to the lottery started to fracture in the US. This study examines causes of the fracture and historical factors that contributed to changes in individual attitudes towards legalization. The opponents at the time held to traditional arguments against legalized lotteries—negative economic effects, costs to others and increased crime. Unlike in the past, however, there was weak religious institutional opposition to lotteries. Individuals with a strong commitment to their religious affiliation were more resistant to pro-lottery arguments, but in most cases could be convinced to support the lottery. The pre-World War II generation remained steadfast against the …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- November 2006, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

The Anatomy Of An Oil Price Shock, Eric O'N. Fisher, Kathryn G. Marshall

Economics

Oil price shocks do not cause inflation, no matter how close the connection seems to be in our practical experience. But they can cause significant price increases throughout the economy. Tracing the way a sharp increase in the price of crude oil affects prices in various industrial sectors of the U.S. economy suggests how big these increases are. Fortunately, our economy seems better prepared now to weather such shocks than in the 1970s and 1980s.

Green Markets, Eco-Certification, And Equilibrium Fraud, Stephen F. Hamilton, David Zilberman

Economics

Consumers voluntarily pay significant price premiums to acquire unobservable environmental attributes in green markets. This paper considers the performance of eco-certification policy under circumstances where consumers cannot discern environmental attributes in goods, but are able to form rational expectations regarding the extent of illicit activities in the green market. The main results are: (i) fraud is less prevalent in green markets when entry barriers limit the number of firms; (ii) conventional environmental policies on polluting techniques increase the incidence of fraud, and can even preclude the use of non-polluting techniques which would otherwise emerge in green markets; (iii) voluntary eco-certification …

How Much Does Violence Tax Trade?, S. Brock Blomberg, Gregory Hess

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

We investigate the empirical effect of violence, as compared to other trade impediments, on trade flows. Our analysis is based on a panel data set with annual observations on 177 countries from 1968 to 1999, which brings together information from the Rose data set, the iterate data set for terrorist events, and data sets of external and internal conflict. We explore these data with traditional and theoretical gravity models. We calculate that, for a given country year, the presence of terrorism together with internal and external conflict is equivalent to as much as a 30% tariff on trade. This is …

Is The Compensation Model For Real Estate Brokers Obsolete?, Thomas J. Miceli, Katherine A. Pancak, C. F. Sirmans

Economics Working Papers

This study examines the traditional compensation model for real estate brokers under which both the listing and buyer brokers are paid by the seller based on a percentage of the property sales price. We argue that this model has not evolved to reflect contemporary legal agency relationships and technology-driven information availability. It therefore creates substantial transactional inefficiencies for buyers and sellers at both the matching and bargaining stages of a transaction. While there is evidence that market forces are pushing for a change in the status quo, there is also evidence that the brokerage industry is resisting this change by …

The State‐Led Transition To Liberal Capitalism: Neoliberal, Organizational, World‐Systems, And Social Structural Explanations Of Poland’S Economic Success, Lawrence P. King, Aleksandra Sznajder Lee

Political Science Faculty Publications

Neoliberals argue that rapid liberalization and privatization can transform postcommunist economies into Western-style capitalist systems. Organizational sociologists argue that these policies produce a unique variety of capitalism, while world-systems theorists argue that they lead to underdevelopment. This article advances a social structural alternative in a crucial case. Poland’s relative economic success resulted from prolonged state ownership and an interventionist state employing various industrial policy tools that facilitated efficiency-enhancing market-oriented restructuring before ushering in beneficial foreign direct investment. The resulting capitalist system closely resembles the typical pattern found in most late industrializers.

One-Way Essential Complements, Keith M. Chen, Barry Nalebuff

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

While competition between firms producing substitutes is well understood, less is known about rivalry between complementors. We study the interaction between firms in markets with one-way essential complements. One good is essential to the use of the other but not vice versa, as arises with an operating system and applications. Our interest is in the division of surplus between the two goods and the related incentive for firms to create complements to an essential good. Formally, we study a two-good model where consumers value A alone, but can only enjoy B if they also purchase A. When one firm sells …

Outsourcing Induced By Strategic Competition, Yutian Chen, Pradeep Dubey, Debapriya Sen

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We show that intermediate goods can be sourced to firms on the “outside” (that do not compete in the final product market), even when there are no economies of scale or cost advantages for these firms. What drives the phenomenon is that “inside” firms, by accepting such orders, incur the disadvantage of becoming Stackelberg followers in the ensuing competition to sell the final product. Thus they have incentive to quote high provider prices to ward off future competitors, driving the latter to source outside.

Identification And Inference Of Nonlinear Models Using Two Samples With Arbitrary Measurement Errors, Xiaohong Chen, Yingyao Hu

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper considers identification and inference of a general latent nonlinear model using two samples, where a covariate contains arbitrary measurement errors in both samples, and neither sample contains an accurate measurement of the corresponding true variable. The primary sample consists of some dependent variables, some error-free covariates and an error-ridden covariate, where the measurement error has unknown distribution and could be arbitrarily correlated with the latent true values. The auxiliary sample consists of another noisy measurement of the mismeasured covariate and some error-free covariates. We first show that a general latent nonlinear model is nonparametrically identified using the two …

Competing For Customers In A Social Network, Pradeep Dubey, Rahul Garg, Bernard De Meyer

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

There are many situations in which a customer’s proclivity to buy the product of any firm depends not only on the classical attributes oft he product such as its price and quality, but also on who else is buying the same product. We model these situations as games in which firms compete for customers located in a “social network.” Nash Equilibrium (NE) in pure strategies exist in general. In the quasi-linear version of the model, NE turn out to be unique and can be precisely characterized. If there are no a priori biases between customers and firms, then there is …

Games Of Connectivity, Pradeep Dubey, Rahul Garg

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We consider a communications network in which users transmit beneficial information to each other at a cost. We pinpoint conditions under which the induced cooperative game is supermodular (convex). Our analysis is in a lattice-theoretic framework, which is at once simple and able to encompass a wide variety of seemingly disparate models.

A Note On Fairness, Power, Property, And Behind The Veil, Martin Shubik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

An Axiomatization for Power and for Equity differ only in the addition of a Behind the Veil Axiom.

How The No Child Left Behind Act Undermines Education Standards, John Yinger

Center for Policy Research

It’s Elementary is a series of essays on topics in education and education policy. The main focus is on education finance in New York State, but general research findings in education and education policy issues in several other states are also discussed. John Yinger, Professor of Economics and Public Administration at the Maxwell School, Syracuse University is the author of most of these essays, although a few are written by or co-authored with other scholars.

How Do The Effects Of Local Growth On Employment Rates Vary With Initial Labor Market Conditions?, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper examines how the effects of increased employment growth on a metropolitan area's employment to population ratio varies with the initial tightness of the metropolitan area's labor market. This examination is relevant to evaluating the benefits of local economic development policies in different metropolitan areas. Much of the benefits of such policies are in higher employment rates. The empirical estimates suggest that the effectiveness of employment growth in increasing the employment to population ratio is lower in metropolitan areas with "tight" labor markets. In addition, some estimates suggest that growth has the greatest long-run effects on the employment to …

Local Market Scale And The Pattern Of Job Changes Among Young Men, Christopher H. Wheeler

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

In finding a career, workers tend to make numerous job changes, with the majority of 'complex' changes (i.e., those involving changes of industry) occurring relatively early in their working lives. This pattern suggests that workers tend to experiment with different types of work before settling on the one they like best. Of course, since the extent of economic diversity differs substantially across local labor markets in the U.S. (e.g., counties and cities), this career search process may exhibit important differences depending on the size of a worker’s local market. This paper explores this issue using a sample of young male …

Choice Of Currency By East Asia Bond Issuers, David Fernandez, Simon Klassen

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In discussing bond markets in Asia, academics and policymakers typically begin by noting that the Asian crisis of 1997-98 in part resulted from the underdevelopment of the region’s domestic bond markets and the resultant currency and duration mismatches. When assessing the progress made in developing these markets in the post-crisis years, academics and policymakers usually observe that, while several domestic currency government bond markets have moved ahead, corporate bond markets have lagged (Asian Development Bank (2002), Reserve Bank of Australia (2003)). The policy conclusion is therefore often drawn: to prevent another Asian crisis, Asian bond markets must be further developed.