Economics Commons^™

Scoring Arrears At A Microlender In Bolivia, Mark Schreiner

Journal of Microfinance / ESR Review

Can scoring models help microlenders in poor countries as much as they have helped credit-card lenders in rich countries? This paper presents a scorecard that predicts the probability that loans from a microlender in Bolivia will have arrears of 15 days or more. Although arrears in microfinance depend on many factors difficult to include in scorecards, the paper shows that inexpensive, simple-to-collect data does have some predictive power. In micro-finance, scoring will not replace loan officers, but it can flag high-risk cases and act as a cross-check on loan officers' judgment.

Appendix D: The Econometric Analysis Of The Benefits Of School-Based Mentoring, Amanda Bayer

Economics Faculty Works

No abstract provided.

Opening Remarks: Seminar On Current Economic Reforms In Nigeria: The Case Of Deregulating The Downstream Petroleum Subsector, S. B. C. Ekpedekumo

Economic and Financial Review

This is the opening remarks by S. B. C. Ekpedekumo, Acting. Director; Human Resources Department, central Bank of Nigeria, at the In-house seminar on “current economic reforms in Nigeria: the case of deregulating the downstream petroleum subsector’’ for CBN Executive Staff, Ilorin, October 25 . 29, 2004.

Welcome Address: Seminar On Current Economic Reforms In Nigeria: The Case Of Deregulating The Downstream Petroleum Subsector, P. O. Okonkwor

Economic and Financial Review

This is the welcome address by P. O. Okonkwor, Branch Controller, Central Bank of Nigeria, Ilorin, at the In-house seminar on “current economic reforms in Nigeria: the case of deregulating the downstream petroleum subsector’’ for CBN Executive Staff, Ilorin, October 25-29, 2004.

Pricing Of Petroleum Products In Nigeria And The Issue Of Price Subsidy, G. E. Ukpong

Economic and Financial Review

This article re-examines the policy on petroleum products pricing, especially against the background 'Of government's decision in October 2003 that crude oil for domestic consumption be paid for at the prevailing international price, in order to suggest a way forward. The issue of subsidy is also discussed in that context. The rest of the paper is organized as follows: Section II contains literature review on petroleum products pricing and subsidy. Petroleum products pricing and subsidy management in Nigeria is found in section III. Section IV contains suggested way forward in products pricing in Nigeria as well as concluding thoughts.

Deregulation Of The Downstream Petroleum Sector: The Journey So Far, Oluwole Oluleye

Economic and Financial Review

This article examines deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector in Nigeria. The article first discusses: the Nigerian government's aspirations as at 1999, evolution of the present deregulation policy, deregulation concept and downstream operators. This is followed by an examination of the Nigerian government responsibilities to operators, responsibilities of oil marketing companies, responsibilities of industry associations and responsibilities of regulatory authorities. The article then explains the mandate and vision of the PPPRA in addition to its goals and objectives. Other issues addressed by the article include: appropriate pricing, global taxation scheme, policy development in fuel taxation objectives, appropriate pricing policy. Experiences …

The Welfare Implications Of Increasing Disability Insurance Benefit Generosity, John Bound, Julie Berry Cullen, Austin Nichols, Lucie Schmidt

Economics: Faculty Publications

In order to evaluate whether workers are over- or under-insured through the Disability Insurance (DI) program, we develop a framework that allows us to simulate the benefits as well as the costs associated with marginal changes in payment generosity from a representative cross-sectional sample of the population. Under the assumption that individuals are reasonably risk averse, we find that the typical worker would value increased benefits somewhat above the average costs of providing them. However, whether the benefit increases tend to lower or raise utility when we average across all individuals in our sample is sensitive to assumptions that affect …

Estimating The Cost Of An Adequate Education, John Yinger

Center for Policy Research

It’s Elementary is a series of essays on topics in education and education policy. The main focus is on education finance in New York State, but general research findings in education and education policy issues in several other states are also discussed. John Yinger, Professor of Economics and Public Administration at the Maxwell School, Syracuse University is the author of most of these essays, although a few are written by or co-authored with other scholars.

Consequences Of Announcements To Voluntarily Adopt The Fair Value Method Of Accounting For Stock-Based Compensation, Shilpa Manaktala, John D. Phillips, Karen Teitel

Economics Department Working Papers

We identify 133 firms that between July and December 2002, announced plans to voluntarily adopt the fair value method of accounting for stock-based compensation. We investigate whether such announcements increased the quality of these firms’ earnings as perceived by market participants. Answering this research question not only provides evidence relevant to the debate surrounding the expensing of employee stock options, but doing so provides evidence that conservative accounting choices in general lead to higher perceived earnings quality. Using two measures of earnings quality, the price-earnings relation and the earnings response coefficient, we find evidence consistent with an increase in perceived …

Applying Intermediate Microeconomics To Terrorism, Charles Anderton, John Carter

Economics Department Working Papers

The authors show how microeconomic concepts and principles are applicable to the study of terrorism. The utility maximization model provides insights into both terrorist resource allocation choices and government counterterrorism efforts, while basic game theory helps characterize the strategic interdependencies among terrorists and governments.

Do Policy-Makers Earmark To Constrain Their Successors? The Case Of Environmental Earmarking, Neva Novarro

Economics Department Working Papers

This paper examines whether legislators earmark funds in order to constrain the spending of future legislators with different preferences. Specifically, panel data is used to estimate the probability a new environmental earmarking law is passed as a function of Democrats holding and subsequently losing majority control of the government. The results of this study do not support this hypothesis. In fact, Democrats with a large majority who subsequently lose this majority power following the next election are found to be less likely to earmark funds for the environment. One possible explanation for this finding may be that competing forces make …

Trend And Cycle Analysis Of Unemployment Insurance And The Employment Service, Wayne Vroman, Stephen A. Woodbury

External Papers and Reports

This report traces historical developments in two major DOL programs: State Unemployment Insurance (UI) and the federal-state Employment Service (ES). Developments in the UI program are traced from the late 1940s while ES program activities are traced from the late 1960s. For both programs, the report emphasizes long term trends as well as changes that have occurred over the course of the business cycle. The analysis uses annual data and is conducted at three levels of geographic detail: national, regional and state. A major objective of the project was to create data files useful for other researchers in studying the …

The Development Of Mexican Nonproliferation Export Controls Cits Special Report, Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado

Latino/Latin American Studies Reports

This report by OLLAS assistant director Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado is part of a developing research and outreach project with the Center for International Trade and Security at the University of Georgia. It involved working with Mexican government officials to design and implement national responses to international agreements and obligations to ensure command and control of critical nuclear, biological, and chemical materials in Mexico. Dr. Benjamin-Alvarado conducted a comprehensive survey, which he administered in Argentina and Cuba previously, later in 2005 to assess Mexican export controls.

Keynote Address: Seminar On Current Economic Reforms In Nigeria: The Case Of Deregulating The Downstream Petroleum Subsector, Ernest C. Ebi

Economic and Financial Review

This is the Keynote address by Ernest C. Ebi, Deputy Governor Central Bank of Nigeria, Abuja, Central Bank of Nigeria, at the In-house seminar on “current economic reforms in Nigeria: the case of deregulating the downstream petroleum subsector’’ for CBN Executive Staff, Ilorin, October 25-29, 2004.

Special Remarks: Seminar On Current Economic Reforms In Nigeria: The Case Of Deregulating The Downstream Petroleum Subsector, 0. J. Nnanna

Economic and Financial Review

This is the special remarks by O. J. Nnanna, Director of Research, Central Bank of Nigeria, Abuja, at the In-house seminar on “current economic reforms in Nigeria: the case of deregulating the downstream petroleum subsector’’ for CBN Executive Staff, Ilorin, October 25-29, 2004.

Funding Of Oil Sector Activities In Nigeria, G. Nzekwu

Economic and Financial Review

The article examines the funding of the Nigerian oil sector considering the special importance to Nigeria and the critical impact Nigeria's oil has on the world economy. Nigeria, currently the seventh largest oil producer in the world has an oil reserves which represent 6 percent of the world's total outside the Middle East. With 4 per cent of total global production, and the fifth-largest oil producer within OPEC, Nigeria is well located relative to the world markets and so attracts buyers from the major world economies. The article then examines how higher prices of Nigeria’s oil affect the global economy; …

The Social Implications Of The Deregulation Of The Downstream Petroleum Sub-Sector, Ogecbukwu Ugbam

Economic and Financial Review

This article examines the social implications of the deregulation of the downstream petroleum sub-sector in Nigeria. The deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector is part of the economic reform package of the present administration that is designed to among diversify the economic base of the country and reduce the relative dominance of the oil sector, and to create a vibrant sector that can respond to the rigors of market forces (NEEDS Document,). The article covers topics that include: an examination of the the downstream sub-sector and the rationale for deregulating the downstream sub-sector. This is that optimal allocation of resources …

False Dawn Or A Promising Start?, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

There are others who believe that the country has made a promising start and that the reforms undertaken during the last five years are sustainable and this will change the economic landscape of the country over time. The arguments advanced by the 'false dawn' proponents are, however, quite varied.

Private Savings In Transition Economies: Are There Terms Of Trade Shocks?, Abdur Chowdhury

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

Economic agents in the transition economies are subject to tight credit constraints, which are more pronounced during bad state of nature. Thus, adverse shocks to commodity prices in the world market can force them to reduce savings by a larger amount than they would otherwise have. Empirical analysis using a dynamic panel model and data from 21 transition economies confirm that most of the determinants of savings identified in the literature also apply to the transition economies. The transitory component in the terms of trade have a larger positive impact than the permanent component. This reflects the lack of access …

Examining The Relationship Between Community Residents' Economic Status And The Outcomes Of Community Development Programs, Christopher R. Larrison, Eric Hadley-Ives

The Journal of Sociology & Social Welfare

In designing and implementing community development interventions the economic status of targeted participants is a demographic characteristic worth considering. The findings from this research indicate that even within the limited economies of rural Mexican villages there are variations in economic status that affect the ways in which the outcomes of community development programs are perceived. The poorest of the poor are likely to be less satisfied with development projects than those with average or better-off economic status. This is true whether a development project uses a bottomup approach or a top-down approach. The more participatory approach does not attenuate the …

Measuring And Indigenizing Social Capital In Relation To Children's Street Work In Mexico: The Role Of Culture In Shaping Social Capital Indicators, Kristin M. Ferguson

The Journal of Sociology & Social Welfare

Drawing from social capital theory, this study assessed the relevance of existing conceptions of social capital-largely from the United States and Canada-in the Mexican context, in an effort to contribute novel variables to the street-children literature. Using a cross-sectional survey design, 204 mothers of street-working and non-working children were interviewed within one community in Monterrey, Nuevo Le6n, Mexico. Factor analysis was used to corroborate the internal construct validity of two dimensions of social capital: family social capital and community social capital. Findings reveal that culture can play an influential role in how social capital indicators are defined and measured.

Review Of Western Welfare In Decline: Globalization And Women's Poverty. Catherine Kingfisher. Reviewed By Silvia Borzutsky., Silvia Borzutzky

The Journal of Sociology & Social Welfare

Book review of Catherine Kingfisher, Western Welfare in Decline: Globalization and Women's Poverty. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2003. $49.95 hardcover, $21.95 papercover.

Trend And Cycle Analysis Of Unemployment Insurance And The Employment Service, Wayne Vroman, Stephen A. Woodbury

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

No abstract provided.

Trade Integration And Political Turbulence : Environmental Policy Consequences., Per G. Fredriksson, Muthukumara Mani

Faculty and Staff Scholarship

This paper contributes to the unresolved issue regarding the effect of economic integration on environmental policymaking. In particular, we discuss the joint impact of trade openness and political stability on environmental policymaking. Our theory predicts that the effect of trade integration on environmental policy is conditional on the degree of political stability. Trade integration affects the stringency of environmental policies due to changes in industry bribery behavior, and the effect is conditional on the degree of political stability. The empirical findings support the theory and are robust to alternative specifications. The stringency enhancing effect on environmental policy of trade integration …

Determinants Of Aggregate R&D, Role Of Fiscal Policy, And The Effects Of Government R&D On Economic Growth, Ashraf Galal Mohamed Eid

Dissertations

This dissertation contains three essays on research and development (R&D): determinants, the role of fiscal policy, and the effects of government R&D on economic growth. The first essay is an attempt to study the determinants of aggregate R&D expenditure in both emerging and developed countries with special attention to patent rights protection and technology transfer. The main findings are: (1) patent protection helps R&D but overly burdensome protection can limit access to new innovations and thus slow down the rate of research and development, and (2) technology transfer, through imports and FDI, has a positive and significant effect only if …

Investment And Capital Flows Under Uncertainty And Capital Market Imperfection In Oil Producing Countries, Mohamed Gaber Hassan Elsayed

Dissertations

This dissertation analyzes and estimates the interactions between domestic investment and each type of capital flow under uncertainty and capital market imperfection in 13 oil-producing countries from 1981 to 2003. First, we discuss the recent development in investment theories under uncertainty, irreversibility, and imperfect capital market. Secondly, decomposing uncertainty into permanent and transitory components--based on C-GARCH--we constructuncertainty measures of broad macroeconomic variables in addition to oil price.

Thirdly, a model of four simultaneous equations is developed to capture dynamic interactions. My contribution is twofold. First, not only do we consider the impact of uncertainty and credit market imperfection on investment, …

The Political Economy Of Polarized Pluralism, Salvatore Babones, Riccardo Pelizzo

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

It is difficult to overestimate the importance of Sartori’s party system typology at least because, as Peter Mair recently pointed out, “there has been very little new thinking on how to classify systems since the seminal work of Sartori” (Mair, forthcoming). The first important party system taxonomy was proposed by Duverger in his Political Parties (1951). Duverger in this classic study identified three types of party systems: the one party system, the two party system and the multi-party system. By the early 1960s Sartori had become quite unhappy with this typology (Sartori, 1982). Sartori thought that both the one-party and …

Analytically Calibrated Box-Cox Percentile Limits For Duration And Event-Time Models, Zhenlin Yang, Albert K.C. Tsui

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a unified approach to constructing confidence limits for a future percentile duration or event-time. The construction is based on an analytical calibration of the Box-Cox-type “plug-in” percentile limits (PL). The performance of the calibrated Box-Cox PL is investigated using Monte Carlo experiments. Comparisons are made with PLs that are specifically designed for a particular distribution such as Weibull and lognormal. Excellent performances of the calibrated Box-Cox PL are observed. Simulation based on other popular duration models such as gamma and inverse Gaussian reveal that the proposed PL is robust against distributional assumptions and that it performs much …

L S Penrose's Limit Theorem: Tests By Simulation, Pao-Li Chang, Vincent Chua, Moshe Machover

Research Collection School Of Economics

LS Penrose’s limit theorem (PLT) – which is implicit in Penrose [5, p. 72] and for which he gave no rigorous proof – says that, in simple weighted voting games, if the number of voters increases indefinitely while existing voters retain their weights and the relative quota is pegged, then – under certain conditions – the ratio between the voting powers of any two voters converges to the ratio between their weights. Lindner and Machover [3] prove some special cases of PLT; and conjecture that the theorem holds, under rather general conditions, for large classes of weighted voting games, various …

An Analytical Framework For Science Parks And Technology Districts With An Application To Singapore, Cher Chiew Francis Koh, Teow Hock Winston Koh, Feichin Ted Tschang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper analyzes the question: what does it take for science parks and technology districts to evolve and grow? We propose an analytical framework to examine the gestation, evolution and sustainability of science parks and regional phenomena at a broader scale such as technology districts. The framework comprises three aspects of a science park's development: growth mechanisms, level of technological capabilities, and integration with national or global markets. The main growth mechanisms we identify are government-led infrastructure provision, agglomeration effects and continual self-renewal through the creation of new businesses. We apply this framework to analyze Singapore's science park strategy and …