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2004

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Articles 211 - 240 of 664

Full-Text Articles in Economics

Linking Health, Secondary Conditions And Employment Outcomes, Catherine Ipsen, University Of Montana Rural Institute Jul 2004

Linking Health, Secondary Conditions And Employment Outcomes, Catherine Ipsen, University Of Montana Rural Institute

Employment

Health is important to securing and maintaining employment, but for many low-income or unemployed people access to health promotion programs is limited. This is a problem for many people with disabilities who do not work and who rely on Medicare or Medicaid to cover their healthcare costs. Without access to programs that promote health and reduce secondary conditions, people with disabilities may find it difficult to get a job or stay employed. This may be a factor in this group’s persistently high unemployment rates. Participation in worksite health promotion programs has been shown to (1) increase employee productivity through reduced …

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Bayesian Herders: Asymmetric Updating Of Rainfall Beliefs In Response To External Forecasts, Travis J. Lybbert, Christopher B. Barrett, John G. Mcpeak, Winnie Luseno Jul 2004

Bayesian Herders: Asymmetric Updating Of Rainfall Beliefs In Response To External Forecasts, Travis J. Lybbert, Christopher B. Barrett, John G. Mcpeak, Winnie Luseno

Economics - All Scholarship

Temporal climate risk weighs heavily on many of the world's poor. Model-based climate forecasts could benefit such populations, provided recipients use forecast information to update climate expectations. We test whether pastoralists in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya update
their expectations in response to forecast information and find that they indeed do, albeit with a systematic bias towards optimism. In their systematic optimism, these pastoralists are remarkably like Wall Street's financial analysts and stockbrokers. If climate forecasts have limited value to these pastoralists, it is due to the flexibility of their livelihood rather than an inability to process forecast information.

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Tobacco Control Programs And Tobacco Consumption, Michael L. Marlow Jul 2004

Tobacco Control Programs And Tobacco Consumption, Michael L. Marlow

Economics

No Abstract

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Why Are We Losing Manufacturing Jobs?, Eric O'N. Fisher Jul 2004

Why Are We Losing Manufacturing Jobs?, Eric O'N. Fisher

Economics

In the last 50 years, the share of employment in manufacturing has declined in the United States. The main reason for this phenomenon is labor-saving technological progress. Variation among state tax polices and international economic conditions have played only minor roles. The source of future prosperity will be technological advances in a service-oriented economy.

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The Private Market For Accommodation: Determinants Of Smoking Policies In Restaurants And Bars, John Dunham, Michael L. Marlow Jul 2004

The Private Market For Accommodation: Determinants Of Smoking Policies In Restaurants And Bars, John Dunham, Michael L. Marlow

Economics

No abstract provided.

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The Rise Of Low-Skill Immigration In The South, George J. Borjas Jul 2004

The Rise Of Low-Skill Immigration In The South, George J. Borjas

University of Kentucky Center for Poverty Research Discussion Paper Series

The 1990s witnessed a significant geographic redistribution of immigration away from the traditional immigrant-receiving states, mainly California, and towards other parts of the country, mainly the Southern states that have not historically been immigrant-receiving states. This paper documents the impact of this change in immigrant settlement patterns on the skill endowment of the workforce in Southern states. The empirical analysis indicates that the recent change in immigrant settlement patterns led to the rise of a sizable foreign-born low-skill workforce in the South, particularly outside Florida and Texas. This workforce developed both as a result of increased settlement of many newly …

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Grading Exams: 100, 99, ..., 1 Or A, B, C? Incentives In Games Of Status, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos Jul 2004

Grading Exams: 100, 99, ..., 1 Or A, B, C? Incentives In Games Of Status, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We show that if students care primarily about their status (relative rank) in class, they are best motivated to work not by revealing their exact numerical exam scores (100,99,…,1), but instead by clumping them in broad categories (A,B,C). If their abilities are disparate, the optimal grading scheme awards fewer A’s than there are alpha-quality students, creating small elites. If their abilities are common knowledge, then it is better to grade them on an absolute scale (100 to 90 is an A, etc.) rather than on a curve (top 15% is an A, etc.). We develop criteria for optimal grading schemes …

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Hac Estimation By Automated Regression, Peter C.B. Phillips Jul 2004

Hac Estimation By Automated Regression, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A simple regression approach to HAC and LRV estimation is suggested. The method exploits the fact that the quantities of interest relate to only one point of the spectrum (the origin). The new estimator is simply the explained sum of squares in a linear regression whose regressors are a set of trend basis functions. Positive definiteness in the estimate is therefore automatically enforced and the technique can be implemented with standard regression packages. No kernel choice is needed in practical implementation but basis functions need to be chosen and a smoothing parameter corresponding to the number of basis functions needs …

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Challenges Of Trending Time Series Econometrics, Peter C.B. Phillips Jul 2004

Challenges Of Trending Time Series Econometrics, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We discuss some challenges presented by trending data in time series econometrics. To the empirical economist there is little guidance from theory about the source of trend behavior and even less guidance about practical formulations. Moreover, recent proximity theorems reveal that trends are more elusive to model empirically than stationary processes, with the upshot that optimal forecasts are also harder to estimate when the data involve trends. These limitations are implicitly acknowledged in much practical modeling and forecasting work, where adaptive methods are often used to help keep models on track as trends evolve. The paper discusses these broader issues …

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Expansions For Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimators Of The Fractional Difference Parameter, Offer Lieberman, Peter C.B. Phillips Jul 2004

Expansions For Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimators Of The Fractional Difference Parameter, Offer Lieberman, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper derives second-order expansions for the distributions of the Whittle and profile plug-in maximum likelihood estimators of the fractional difference parameter in the ARFIMA(0, d ,0) with unknown mean and variance. Both estimators are shown to be second-order pivotal. This extends earlier findings of Lieberman and Phillips (2001), who derived expansions for the Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator under the assumption that the mean and variance are known. One implication of the results is that the parametric bootstrap upper one-sided confidence interval provides an o ( n -1 ln n ) improvement over the delta method. For statistics that are …

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Regression Asymptotics Using Martingale Convergence Methods, Rustam Ibragimov, Peter C.B. Phillips Jul 2004

Regression Asymptotics Using Martingale Convergence Methods, Rustam Ibragimov, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Weak convergence of partial sums and multilinear forms in independent random variables and linear processes to stochastic integrals now plays a major role in nonstationary time series and has been central to the development of unit root econometrics. The present paper develops a new and conceptually simple method for obtaining such forms of convergence. The method relies on the fact that the econometric quantities of interest involve discrete time martingales or semimartingales and shows how in the limit these quantities become continuous martingales and semimartingales. The limit theory itself uses very general convergence results for semimartingales that were obtained in …

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An Alternative Test Of Racial Prejudice In Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory And Evidence, Shamena Anwar, Hanming Fang Jul 2004

An Alternative Test Of Racial Prejudice In Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory And Evidence, Shamena Anwar, Hanming Fang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We exploit a simple but realistic model of trooper behavior to design empirical tests that address the following two questions. Are police monolithic in their search behavior? Is racial profiling in motor vehicle searches motivated by troopers’ desire for effective policing (statistical discrimination) or by their racial prejudice (racism)? Our tests require data sets with race information about both the motorists and troopers. When applied to vehicle stop and search data from Florida, our tests can soundly reject the null hypothesis that troopers of different races are monolithic in their search behavior, but fail to reject the null hypothesis that …

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Competition, Consumer Welfare And Monopoly Power, Donald J. Brown, G. A. Wood Jul 2004

Competition, Consumer Welfare And Monopoly Power, Donald J. Brown, G. A. Wood

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

An applied general equilibrium analysis of monopoly power is proposed as an alternative to the partial equilibrium analyses of monopoly pricing current in antitrust economics. This analysis introduces a new notion of market equilibrium where firms with monopoly power are cost-minimizing price-takers in competitive factor markets and make supracompetitive profits in equilibrium, i.e., the monopoly price exceeds the marginal cost of production. We assume that the primary goals of antitrust policy are the promotion of competition and the enhancement of consumer welfare. To that end, we use Debreu’s coefficient of resource utilization to determine the counterfactual competitive price levels in …

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Collateral Restrictions And Liquidity Under-Supply: A Simple Model, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos Jul 2004

Collateral Restrictions And Liquidity Under-Supply: A Simple Model, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We show that very little is needed to create liquidity under-supply in equilibrium. Credit constraints on demand by themselves can cause an under-supply of liquidity, without the uncertainty, intermediation, asymmetric information or complicated international financial framework used in other models in the literature. We show that the under-supply is a non-monotone function of the demand distortion that causes it, a result that may have interesting implications for emerging markets economies. Finally, when we make the credit constraint endogenous, the inefficiency can be large due to the presence of a multiplier.

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Automated Discovery In Econometrics, Peter C.B. Phillips Jul 2004

Automated Discovery In Econometrics, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Our subject is the notion of automated discovery in econometrics. Advances in computer power, electronic communication, and data collection processes have all changed the way econometrics is conducted. These advances have helped to elevate the status of empirical research within the economics profession in recent years and they now open up new possibilities for empirical econometric practice. Of particular significance is the ability to build econometric models in an automated way according to an algorithm of decision rules that allow for (what we call here) heteroskedastic and autocorrelation robust (HAR) inference. Computerized search algorithms may be implemented to seek out …

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Non-Monotone Liquidity Under-Supply, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos Jul 2004

Non-Monotone Liquidity Under-Supply, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We define liquidity as the flexibility to move goods (money) from one project (investment) to another. We show that credit constraints on demand by themselves can cause an under-supply of liquidity, without the uncertainty, intermediation, asymmetric information or complicated international financial framework used in other models in the literature. In this respect liquidity is like a commodity: according to our offsetting distortions principle, a distortion in the demand for any good can often be understood as an inefficiency of supply. We show that the liquidity under-supply is a non-monotone function of the credit constraint. This result is also a particular …

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Limit Theory For Moderate Deviations From A Unit Root, Peter C.B. Phillips, Tassos Magdalinos Jul 2004

Limit Theory For Moderate Deviations From A Unit Root, Peter C.B. Phillips, Tassos Magdalinos

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

An asymptotic theory is given for autoregressive time series with a root of the form ρ n = 1 + c/ n α , which represents moderate deviations from unity when α in (0,1). The limit theory is obtained using a combination of a functional law to a diffusion on D [0,∞) and a central limit law to a scalar normal variate. For c > 0, the results provide a n (1+α)/2 rate of convergence and asymptotic normality for the first order serial correlation, partially bridging the squareroot of n and n convergence rates for the stationary (α = 0) and …

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Uniform Limit Theory For Stationary Autoregression, Liudas Giraitis, Peter C.B. Phillips Jul 2004

Uniform Limit Theory For Stationary Autoregression, Liudas Giraitis, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

First order autoregression is shown to satisfy a limit theory which is uniform over stationary values of the autoregressive coefficient ρ = ρ n in [0,1) provided (1 - ρ n )n approaches infinity. This extends existing Gaussian limit theory by allowing for values of stationary rho that include neighbourhoods of unity provided they are wider than ( n 1 ), even by a slowly varying factor. Rates of convergence depend on rho and are at least squareroot of / n but less than n . Only second moments are assumed, as in the case of stationary autoregression with fixed …

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Social Identity And Manipulative Interhousehold Transfers Among East African Pastoralists, Marieke Huysentruyt, Christopher B. Barrett, John G. Mcpeak Jul 2004

Social Identity And Manipulative Interhousehold Transfers Among East African Pastoralists, Marieke Huysentruyt, Christopher B. Barrett, John G. Mcpeak

Economics - All Scholarship

We model interhousehold transfers between nomadic livestock herders as the state-dependent consequence of individuals' strategic interdependence resulting from the existence of multiple, opposing externalities. A public good security externality among individuals sharing a social
(e.g., ethnic) identity in a potentially hostile environment creates incentives to band together. Self-interested interhousehold wealth transfers from wealthier herders to poorer ones may emerge endogenously within a limited wealth space as a means to motivate accompanying migration by the recipient. The distributional reach and size of the transfer are limited, however, by a resource appropriation externality related to the use of common property grazing lands. …

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Investment In Soap Production., Olatunji O. Jul 2004

Investment In Soap Production., Olatunji O.

Bullion

Soap production business is in the group of industrial ventures that could easily be operated on a small scale to boost the country's economic development. This paper focusses on the Product, market information, raw materials for making soap, Standard Organization of Nigeria (SON) regulations for soap, production process, machinery and equipment requirement, proposed production programme. manpower requirement, space requirement and estimated total capital requirement. The study conclude that the project requires the services of both skilled and unskilled labour. For the capacity recommended, the following labour force is required: one Production Manager, six Production Assistants, twelve Factory Operators, two Marketing …

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Optimal Invariant Similar Tests For Instrumental Variables Regression, Donald W.K. Andrews, Marcelo J. Moreira, James H. Stock Jul 2004

Optimal Invariant Similar Tests For Instrumental Variables Regression, Donald W.K. Andrews, Marcelo J. Moreira, James H. Stock

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper considers tests of the parameter on endogenous variables in an instrumental variables regression model. The focus is on determining tests that have some optimal power properties. We start by considering a model with normally distributed errors and known error covariance matrix. We consider tests that are similar and satisfy a natural rotational invariance condition. We determine tests that maximize weighted average power (WAP) for arbitrary weight functions among invariant similar tests. Such tests include point optimal (PO) invariant similar tests. The results yield the power envelope for invariant similar tests. This allows one to assess and compare the …

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Memanfaatkan Model Keseimbangan Umum Terapan Untuk Perumusan Kebijakan: Hikmah Dari Pengalaman Negara Lain, Alan A. Powell, Hengki Purwoto Jul 2004

Memanfaatkan Model Keseimbangan Umum Terapan Untuk Perumusan Kebijakan: Hikmah Dari Pengalaman Negara Lain, Alan A. Powell, Hengki Purwoto

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

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Tingkat Ekstraksi Optimal Minyak Bumi Indonesia: Aplikasi Model Optimasi Dinamik, Alin Halimatussadiah, Budy P. Resosudarmo Jul 2004

Tingkat Ekstraksi Optimal Minyak Bumi Indonesia: Aplikasi Model Optimasi Dinamik, Alin Halimatussadiah, Budy P. Resosudarmo

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

-

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Determinan Pertumbuhan Kota Di Indonesia, Imam Mulatip, Bambang Ps Brodjonegoro Jul 2004

Determinan Pertumbuhan Kota Di Indonesia, Imam Mulatip, Bambang Ps Brodjonegoro

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

-

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Analisis Dampak Kebijakan Harga Energi Terhadap Perekonomian Dan Distribusi Pendapatan Di Dki Jakarta: Aplikasi Model Komputasi Keseimbangan Umum, Djoni Hartono, Budy P. Resosudarmo Jul 2004

Analisis Dampak Kebijakan Harga Energi Terhadap Perekonomian Dan Distribusi Pendapatan Di Dki Jakarta: Aplikasi Model Komputasi Keseimbangan Umum, Djoni Hartono, Budy P. Resosudarmo

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

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A New Look At Labor Exchange Policy, Christopher J. O'Leary, David E. Balducchi Jul 2004

A New Look At Labor Exchange Policy, Christopher J. O'Leary, David E. Balducchi

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

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Work And Retirement Plans Among Older Americans, Katharine G. Abraham, Susan N. Houseman Jul 2004

Work And Retirement Plans Among Older Americans, Katharine G. Abraham, Susan N. Houseman

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We compare older workers' plans for work and retirement with their subsequent work and retirement outcomes using panel data from the Health and Retirement Study. Among those with retirement plans, about half indicate they would like to cut back on their work hours or otherwise change the type of work they do prior to, or instead of, fully retiring. Yet, the fraction that follows through on these alternative plans is dramatically lower than the fraction that realizes plans to stop working. Our analysis shows that individuals who likely would need to change jobs in order to reduce their work hours …

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Montana Nonresident Seasonal Travel Comparisons: 2003, Jim Wilton Jul 2004

Montana Nonresident Seasonal Travel Comparisons: 2003, Jim Wilton

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

This report shows the 2003 seasonal visitation and length of stay data for nonresident travelers to Montana. It also displays average daily spending for various expenditure categories, as well as total expenditures for those categories.

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Montana Nonresident Traveler Expenditure Trends: 1993-2003, Jim Wilton Jul 2004

Montana Nonresident Traveler Expenditure Trends: 1993-2003, Jim Wilton

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

This report shows the nonresident traveler expenditure trends for visitors of Montana from 1993-2003. It also displays the total actual expenditures and the total inflation-adjusted expenditures.

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Montana Nonresident Traveler Expenditure Profiles: 2003, Jim Wilton Jul 2004

Montana Nonresident Traveler Expenditure Profiles: 2003, Jim Wilton

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

This report examines spending profiles of nonresident travelers to Montana. It displays the average daily expenditures by purpose of trip for different spending categories during 2003.

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