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Upjohn Institute Working Papers

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Full-Text Articles in Economics

Do Job Search Rules And Reemployment Services Reduce Insured Unemployment?, Christopher J. O'Leary, Stephen A. Wandner May 2005

Do Job Search Rules And Reemployment Services Reduce Insured Unemployment?, Christopher J. O'Leary, Stephen A. Wandner

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper summarizes state unemployment insurance job search policies based on a recent survey of states by the National Association of State Workforce Agencies. It then reviews research results on the effects of reemployment services on durations of insured unemployment. The paper documents how state administrative practices have changed and questions whether these changes may have affected monitoring of claimant compliance with work search requirements. Since state policies on job search and service referral can affect insured durations of unemployment, these policies can also affect the measured total unemployment rate.

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Evaluating Job Training In Two Chinese Cities, Benu Bidani, Chor-Ching Goh, Niels-Hugo Blunch, Christopher J. O'Leary Mar 2005

Evaluating Job Training In Two Chinese Cities, Benu Bidani, Chor-Ching Goh, Niels-Hugo Blunch, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Recent years have seen a surge in the evidence on the impacts of active labor market programs for numerous countries. However, little evidence has been presented on the effectiveness of such programs in China. Recent economic reforms, associated massive lay-offs, and accompanying public retraining programs make China fertile ground for rigorous impact evaluations. This study evaluates retraining programs for laid-off workers in the cities of Shenyang and Wuhan using a comparison group design. To our knowledge, this is the first evaluation of its kind in China. The evidence suggests that retraining helped workers find jobs in Wuhan, but had little …

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Do Government Sponsored Vocational Training Programs Help The Unemployed Find Jobs? Evidence From Russia, Anton Nivorozhkin, Eugenity Nivorozhkin Jan 2005

Do Government Sponsored Vocational Training Programs Help The Unemployed Find Jobs? Evidence From Russia, Anton Nivorozhkin, Eugenity Nivorozhkin

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The study estimates the employment effect of vocational training programs for the unemployed in urban Russia. The results of propensity score matching indicate that training programs had a non-negative overall effect on the program participants relative to non-participants.

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Asynchronous Risk: Unemployment, Equity Markets, And Retirement Savings, Jason S. Seligman, Jeffrey Brian Wenger Jan 2005

Asynchronous Risk: Unemployment, Equity Markets, And Retirement Savings, Jason S. Seligman, Jeffrey Brian Wenger

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The link between unemployment and pension accumulations is conceptually straightforward; periods of unemployment lead to lower pension contributions, and thus to lower accumulations. However, impacts on accumulation may differ as a result of the timing and frequency of unemployment spells. We hypothesize that unemployment is more likely during periods in which the equities market experiences greater than average returns, largely due to a lead/lag structure of the stock and labor markets, respectively. This would imply that workers may systematically miss opportunities to purchase equities through DC plans when prices are relatively low. To test this hypothesis, we match historic stock …

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Single Mothers, Social Capital, And Work-Family Conflict, Teresa Ciabattari Jan 2005

Single Mothers, Social Capital, And Work-Family Conflict, Teresa Ciabattari

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The purpose of this paper is to examine work-family conflict among low-income, unmarried mothers. I examine how social capital affects work-family conflict and how both social capital and work-family conflict affect employment. I analyze the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a national sample of non-marital births collected in 1998-2000 and 1999-2002. Results show that social capital reduces unmarried mothers' reports of work-family conflict, especially for low-income women. In addition, mothers who report high levels of work-family conflict are less likely to be employed; this pattern holds for women who are not looking for work as well as those who …

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Do Temporary Help Jobs Improve Labor Market Outcomes For Low-Skilled Workers? Evidence From Random Assignments, David H. Autor, Susan N. Houseman Jan 2005

Do Temporary Help Jobs Improve Labor Market Outcomes For Low-Skilled Workers? Evidence From Random Assignments, David H. Autor, Susan N. Houseman

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

A disproportionate share of low-skilled U.S. workers is employed by temporary help firms. These firms offer rapid entry into paid employment, but temporary help jobs are typically brief and it is unknown whether they foster longer-term employment. We draw upon an unusual, large-scale policy experiment in the state of Michigan to evaluate whether holding temporary help jobs facilitates labor market advancement for low-skilled workers. To identify these effects, we exploit the random assignment of welfare-to-work clients across numerous welfare service providers in a major metropolitan area. These providers feature substantially different placement rates at temporary help jobs but offer otherwise …

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Health, Wealth And Workforce Exit: Disability Insurance And Individual Accounts, Jason S. Seligman Jan 2005

Health, Wealth And Workforce Exit: Disability Insurance And Individual Accounts, Jason S. Seligman

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Current debate on the Social Security Administrations long-term finance of benefits includes proposals for independent private investment via individual accounts. The author first investigates what implications disability might have for equity savings account balances. In light of results, incentives to exit the workforce ahead of retirement age are considered when a defined benefit program for disability insurance continues to be available. Included simulation uses historic wage series, equity market performance, and current OASDI regulations for cohorts retiring over the period of 1929 - 2003.

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Some Reflections On The Use Of Administrative Data To Estimate The Net Impacts Of Workforce Programs In Washington State, Kevin Hollenbeck Oct 2004

Some Reflections On The Use Of Administrative Data To Estimate The Net Impacts Of Workforce Programs In Washington State, Kevin Hollenbeck

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The purpose of this paper is to reflect on the results, methodology, and processes used in a series of net labor market impact studies done for the State of Washington over the past six years. All of the studies relied on administrative data and used a technique referred to as quasi-experimental evaluation. The program interventions were the federal- and state-funded workforce development programs. The paper sets out eight "reflections" for analysts and policy makers to consider. These reflections identify lessons learned and uncertainties or issues that need more consideration and scrutiny.

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Increasing The Economic Development Benefits Of Higher Education In Michigan, Timothy J. Bartik Sep 2004

Increasing The Economic Development Benefits Of Higher Education In Michigan, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper considers how a state such as Michigan can increase the economic development benefits of higher education. Research evidence suggests that higher education increases local economic development principally by increasing the quality of the local workforce, and secondarily by increasing local innovative ideas. These economic development benefits of higher education can be increased by: 1) competent management of conventional economic development programs that focus on business attraction and retention; 2) policies that focus on increasing local job skills by educating the state's residents, as opposed to attracting in-migrants; 3) policies that address specific "market failures" in how higher education …

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Single Mothers Working At Night: Standard Work, Child Care Subsidies, And Implications For Welfare Reform, Erdal Tekin Sep 2004

Single Mothers Working At Night: Standard Work, Child Care Subsidies, And Implications For Welfare Reform, Erdal Tekin

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper estimates the effect of child care subsidies on the standard work decision of single mothers and examines whether this effect differs between welfare recipients and nonrecipients. The analysis uses data from the 1999 National Survey of America's Families. Results suggest that child care subsidy receipt is associated with a 6.9 percentage point increase in the probability of single mothers' working at standard jobs. When the effect of subsidy receipt is allowed to differ between welfare recipients and nonrecipients, results indicate that welfare recipients who are offered a child care subsidy are 14 percentage points more likely to work …

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Job Reallocation And Productivity Growth In The Ukrainian Transition, J. David Brown, John S. Earle Sep 2004

Job Reallocation And Productivity Growth In The Ukrainian Transition, J. David Brown, John S. Earle

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We analyze the pace and patterns of job reallocation in Ukraine using 1992-2000 panel data on nearly the surviving universe of manufacturing firms inherited from the Soviet Union. Employment growth displays substantial increase in heterogeneity during this transition period, with a corresponding rise in excess job reallocation. Unlike data for Soviet Russia in the 1980s, Ukrainian job reallocation in the 1990s was clearly productivity-enhancing, both within and cross industries. The paper also estimates the effects of firm and market characteristics on the magnitude of reallocation and on the extent to which it has contributed to aggregate productivity growth.

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Using Administrative Data For Workforce Development Program Evaluation, Kevin Hollenbeck Aug 2004

Using Administrative Data For Workforce Development Program Evaluation, Kevin Hollenbeck

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper addresses the question of whether administrative data that are collected for performance monitoring purposes can be used for program evaluation. It argues that under certain circumstances, such data can be used. In particular, data from the state of Washington are used to examine the effectiveness of services provided to adults under the Workforce Investment Act (WIA). The general theme of an emerging literature on techniques for nonexperimental evaluations of social programs is that many different techniques have appropriate asymptotic properties. A contribution of this paper is to examine the sensitivity of net impact estimators to various estimation techniques. …

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Work And Retirement Plans Among Older Americans, Katharine G. Abraham, Susan N. Houseman Jul 2004

Work And Retirement Plans Among Older Americans, Katharine G. Abraham, Susan N. Houseman

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We compare older workers' plans for work and retirement with their subsequent work and retirement outcomes using panel data from the Health and Retirement Study. Among those with retirement plans, about half indicate they would like to cut back on their work hours or otherwise change the type of work they do prior to, or instead of, fully retiring. Yet, the fraction that follows through on these alternative plans is dramatically lower than the fraction that realizes plans to stop working. Our analysis shows that individuals who likely would need to change jobs in order to reduce their work hours …

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Small Cities Blues: Looking For Growth Factors In Small And Medium-Sized Cities, George A. Erickcek, Hannah J. Mckinney Jun 2004

Small Cities Blues: Looking For Growth Factors In Small And Medium-Sized Cities, George A. Erickcek, Hannah J. Mckinney

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The purpose of this exploratory study is to attempt to identify particular public policies which have the potential to increase the economic viability of smaller metropolitan areas and cities. We identify characteristics associated with smaller metro areas that performed better-than-expected (winners) and worse-than-expected (losers) during the 1990s, given their resources, industrial mix, and location as of 1990. Once these characteristics have been identified, we look for evidence that public policy choices may have promoted and enhanced a metro area's ability to succeed and to regain control of its own economic destiny. Methodologically, we construct a regression model which identifies the …

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Personal Reemployment Accounts: Simulations For Planning Implementation, Christopher J. O'Leary, Randall W. Eberts May 2004

Personal Reemployment Accounts: Simulations For Planning Implementation, Christopher J. O'Leary, Randall W. Eberts

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The proposed Back to Work Incentive Act of 2003 recommended personal reemployment accounts (PRAs) that would provide each eligible unemployment insurance (UI) claimant with a special account of up to 3,000 [dollars] to finance reemployment activities. Account funds could be used to purchase intensive, supportive, and job training services. Any funds remaining in the PRA could be paid as a cash bonus for reemployment within 13 weeks, or drawn as extended income maintenance for exhaustees of regular UI benefits. Personal reemployment account offers would be targeted to UI beneficiaries most likely to exhaust their UI entitlements using state Worker Profiling …

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Incentive Solutions, Timothy J. Bartik Feb 2004

Incentive Solutions, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper reviews the research literature relevant to economic development incentives provided by state and local governments, and recommends reforms in these incentives. I argue that the main problem with current incentive policies is that state and local governments often provide incentives that are not in the best interest of that state or local area, for example that are excessively costly per job created, or that provide jobs that do not improve the job opportunities of local residents. I suggest that reforms should be "bottom-up" rather than "top-down." Regulation of incentives by the federal government, or by international trade treaties, …

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Community Norms And Organizational Practices: The Legitimization Of Wage Arrears In Russia, 1992-1999, John S. Earle, Andrew Spicer, Klara Sabirianova Peter Dec 2003

Community Norms And Organizational Practices: The Legitimization Of Wage Arrears In Russia, 1992-1999, John S. Earle, Andrew Spicer, Klara Sabirianova Peter

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

What role do community norms play in the diffusion and persistence of new organizational practices? We explore this question through an examination of the widespread practice of wage arrears, the late and non-payment of wages, in Russia during the 1990s. Existing research on wage arrears most often examines this practice as a means of flexible wage adjustment under difficult economic conditions. We develop an alternative theory that explains wage arrears through their acceptance as a legitimate form of organizational behavior within local communities. Our empirical analysis finds some support for the neoclassical position that wage arrears reflect adjustment to negative …

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Thoughts On American Manufacturing Decline And Revitalization, Timothy J. Bartik Sep 2003

Thoughts On American Manufacturing Decline And Revitalization, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The recent decline in American manufacturing probably reflects long-run problems. A sensible approach to revitalizing American manufacturing would focus on overcoming inefficiencies in the development of manufacturing, such as problems in small- and medium-sized manufacturers getting information about deploying new technologies. This approach to revitalizing manufacturing can best be implemented through federal efforts to encourage and support state and local economic development policies that help enhance manufacturing productivity. A decentralized approach to the revitalization of manufacturing encourages a variety of creative policies, is adaptable to local conditions, and is consistent with American political traditions.

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Cost-Effectiveness Of Targeted Reemployment Bonuses, Christopher J. O'Leary, Paul T. Decker, Stephen A. Wandner Aug 2003

Cost-Effectiveness Of Targeted Reemployment Bonuses, Christopher J. O'Leary, Paul T. Decker, Stephen A. Wandner

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Targeting reemployment bonus offers to unemployment insurance (UI) claimants identified as most likely to exhaust benefits is estimated to reduce benefit payments. We show that targeting bonus offers with profiling models similar to those in state Worker Profiling and Reemployment Services systems can improve cost effectiveness. Since estimated average benefit payments do not steadily decline as the eligibility screen is gradually tightened, we find that narrow targeting is not optimal. The best candidate is a low bonus amount with a long qualification period, targeted to the half of profiled claimants most likely to exhaust their UI benefit entitlement.

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Net Impact Estimates Of The Workforce Development System In Washington State, Kevin Hollenbeck Jul 2003

Net Impact Estimates Of The Workforce Development System In Washington State, Kevin Hollenbeck

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This study estimates the net impacts and private and social benefits and costs of nine workforce development programs administered in Washington State. Five of the programs serve job-ready adults: Community and Technical College Job Training, Private Career Schools, Apprenticeships, Job Training and Partnership Act (JTPA) Title III programs, and Community and Technical College Worker Retraining. Two of the programs serve adults with employment barriers : Community and Technical College Adult Basic Skills Education and JTPA Title II-A programs. The other two programs serve youth: JTPA Title II-C programs and Secondary Career Technical Education. The net impact analyses were conducted using …

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The Productivity Consequences Of Two Ergonomic Interventions, Kelly Derango, Benjamin C. Amick, Michelle Robertson, Ted Rooney, Anne Moore, Lianna Bazzani May 2003

The Productivity Consequences Of Two Ergonomic Interventions, Kelly Derango, Benjamin C. Amick, Michelle Robertson, Ted Rooney, Anne Moore, Lianna Bazzani

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Pre- and post-intervention data on health outcomes, absenteeism, and productivity from a longitudinal, quasi-experimental design field study of office workers was used to evaluate the economic consequences of two ergonomic interventions. Researchers assigned individuals in the study to three groups: a group that received an ergonomically designed chair and office ergonomics training; a group that received office ergonomics training only; and a control group. The results show that while training alone has neither a statistically significant effect on health nor productivity, the chair-with-training intervention substantially reduced pain and improved productivity. Neither intervention affected sick leave hours.

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A New Wprs Profiling Model For Michigan, Randall W. Eberts, Christopher J. O'Leary Apr 2003

A New Wprs Profiling Model For Michigan, Randall W. Eberts, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The Worker Profiling and Reemployment Services (WPRS) system was established nationwide following the 1993 enactment of Public Law 103-152. The law requires state employment security agencies to profile new claimants for regular unemployment insurance (UI) benefits to identify those most likely to exhaust their regular benefits, and refer them to reemployment services to promote a faster transition to new employment. In November 1994, the Michigan Employment Security Commission (MESC) began profiling new UI claimants with technical assistance from the W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research Since WPRS profiling was introduced in Michigan much has changed, but the same model …

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Local Economic Development Policies, Timothy J. Bartik Jan 2003

Local Economic Development Policies, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This chapter seeks to provide useful advice for local government policy towards economic development programs. The chapter: reviews the size and scope of local economic development programs in the United States; critically analyzes the various rationales offered for these programs; makes recommendations for what local policy should do about business attraction and incentives, business retention, new business development, high technology development, brownfield development, distressed neighborhoods, and downtowns; and discusses how local economic development programs should be organized, managed, and evaluated.

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The Role Of Temporary Agency Employment In Tight Labor Markets, Susan N. Houseman, Arne L. Kalleberg, George A. Erickcek Jan 2003

The Role Of Temporary Agency Employment In Tight Labor Markets, Susan N. Houseman, Arne L. Kalleberg, George A. Erickcek

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper examines the reasons why employers used and even increased their use of temporary help agencies during the tight labor markets of the 1990s. Based on case study evidence from the hospital and auto supply industries, we evaluate various hypotheses for this phenomenon. In high-skilled occupations, our results are consistent with the view that employers paid substantially more to agency help to avoid raising wages for their regular workers and to fill vacancies while they recruited workers for permanent positions. In low-skilled occupations, our evidence suggests that temporary help agencies facilitated the use of more "risky" workers by lowering …

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Job Reallocation And Productivity Growth Under Alternative Economic Systems And Policies: Evidence From The Soviet Transition, J. David Brown, John S. Earle Dec 2002

Job Reallocation And Productivity Growth Under Alternative Economic Systems And Policies: Evidence From The Soviet Transition, J. David Brown, John S. Earle

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

How do economic policies and institutions affect job reallocation processes and their consequences for productivity growth? This paper studies the extreme case of economic system change and alternative transitional policies in the former Soviet Republics of Russia and Ukraine. Exploiting annual industrial census data from 1985 to 2000, we find that Soviet Russia displayed job flow behavior quite different from market economies, with very low rates of job reallocation that bore little relationship to relative productivity across firms and sectors. Since liberalization began, the pace, heterogeneity, and productivity effects of job flows have increased substantially. The increases occurred more quickly …

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Evaluating The Impacts Of Local Economic Development Policies On Local Economic Outcomes: What Has Been Done And What Is Doable?, Timothy J. Bartik Nov 2002

Evaluating The Impacts Of Local Economic Development Policies On Local Economic Outcomes: What Has Been Done And What Is Doable?, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper argues that more rigorous evaluations of local economic development policies are feasible. Programs that aid selected small firms can be rigorously evaluated using an experimental approach, without excluding firms from assistance, by randomly assigning some firms to receive more intense marketing efforts by the program. Programs that aid distressed local areas can be rigorously evaluated by random assignment of the program among eligible distressed areas. If an experiment cannot be done, a variety of statistical approaches can be used to compare firms or areas that use the program with comparison groups of firms or areas that do not …

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Income Replacement And Reemployment Programs In Michigan And Neighboring States, Stephen A. Woodbury Oct 2002

Income Replacement And Reemployment Programs In Michigan And Neighboring States, Stephen A. Woodbury

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Governments in every developed industrial economy administer programs that partially replace the earnings of workers who suffer job loss or on-the-job injury. In addition, governments administer programs to help job losers gain reemployment, either through direct job placement (for those who are job-ready) or through retraining (for those who are not). This chapter describes and discusses current policy issues surrounding the main social insurance and reemployment programs in Michigan: Unemployment Insurance (UI), which partially replaces lost earnings following loss of a job; Workers' Compensation (WC), which pays for medical treatment, vocational rehabilitation, and lost earnings following a work-related injury or …

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The Effects Of Temporary Services And Contracting Out On Low-Skilled Workers: Evidence From Auto Suppliers, Hospitals, And Public Schools, George A. Erickcek, Susan N. Houseman, Arne L. Kalleberg Jul 2002

The Effects Of Temporary Services And Contracting Out On Low-Skilled Workers: Evidence From Auto Suppliers, Hospitals, And Public Schools, George A. Erickcek, Susan N. Houseman, Arne L. Kalleberg

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We examine why employers use temporary agency and contract company workers and the implications of these practices for the wages, benefits, and working conditions of workers in low-skilled labor markets. Through intensive case studies in manufacturing (automotive supply), services (hospitals), and public sector (primary and secondary schools) industries, we define the circumstances under which these workers are likely to be adversely affected, minimally affected, or even benefited by such outsourcing. Adverse effects on compensation are clearest when companies substitute agency temporaries or contract company workers for regular employees on a long-term basis because low-skilled workers within the organization receive relatively …

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A Frontline Decision Support System For Georgia Career Centers, Randall W. Eberts, Christopher J. O'Leary Jul 2002

A Frontline Decision Support System For Georgia Career Centers, Randall W. Eberts, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The Workforce Investment Act (WIA) of 1998 emphasizes the integration and coordination of employment services. Central to achieving this aim is the federal requirement that local areas receiving WIA funding must establish one-stop centers, where providers of various employment services within a local labor market are assembled in one location. A major challenge facing staff in these centers is the expected large volume of customers resulting from relaxed program eligibility rules. Nonetheless, resources for assessment and counseling are limited. To help frontline staff in one-stop centers quickly assess customer needs and properly target services, the U.S. Department of Labor has …

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Instrumental Variable Estimates Of The Labor Market Spillover Effects Of Welfare Reform, Timothy J. Bartik Apr 2002

Instrumental Variable Estimates Of The Labor Market Spillover Effects Of Welfare Reform, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

By increasing the labor supply of welfare recipients, welfare reform may reduce wages and increase unemployment among other less-educated groups. These "spillover effects" are difficult to estimate because welfare caseloads decrease in response to improvements in the economy, which leads caseload reductions to be associated with improvements in labor market outcomes. This paper corrects for the endogeneity of caseloads by using instruments that reflect policy. The estimates suggest that welfare reform has significant spillover effects: welfare reform reduces employment of male high school dropouts, and reduces wages of single mothers and male high school dropouts.

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