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Articles 991 - 1020 of 1733
Full-Text Articles in Economics
Non-Normality And Heteroscedasticity Robust Lm Tests Of Spatial Dependence, Badi H. Baltagi, Zhenlin Yang
Non-Normality And Heteroscedasticity Robust Lm Tests Of Spatial Dependence, Badi H. Baltagi, Zhenlin Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
The standard LM tests for spatial dependence in linear and panel regressions are derived under the normality and homoskedasticity assumptions of the regression disturbances. Hence, they may not be robust against non-normality or heteroskedasticity of the disturbances. Following Born and Breitung (2011), we introduce general methods to modify the standard LM tests so that they become robust against heteroskedasticity and non-normality. The idea behind the robustification is to decompose the concentrated score function into a sum of uncorrelated terms so that the outer product of gradient (OPG) can be used to estimate its variance. We also provide methods for improving …
Arrow-Fisher-Hanemann-Henry And Dixit-Pindyck Option Values Under Strategic Interactions, Tomoki Fujii, Ryuichiro Ishikawa
Arrow-Fisher-Hanemann-Henry And Dixit-Pindyck Option Values Under Strategic Interactions, Tomoki Fujii, Ryuichiro Ishikawa
Research Collection School Of Economics
We extend the Arrow–Fisher–Hanemann–Henry (AFHH) and Dixit–Pindyck (DP) option values to a game situation. By reinterpreting the AFHH option value as a change in the surplus from conservation because of the prospect of future information, we deal with a conceptual difficulty associated with the AFHH option value in the presence of strategic interactions. We then introduce the DP option value into a game situation. We show that the equivalence between the expected value of information and the DP option value in the standard model does not hold under strategic interactions.
Intertemporal Substitution In Maternal Labor Supply: Evidence Using State School Entrance Age Laws, Rashmi Rekha Barua
Intertemporal Substitution In Maternal Labor Supply: Evidence Using State School Entrance Age Laws, Rashmi Rekha Barua
Research Collection School Of Economics
I propose a new framework to study the intertemporal labor supply hypothesis. I use an exogenous source of variation in maternal net earning opportunities, generated through school entrance age of children, to study intertemporal labor supply behavior. Employing data from the 1980 US Census and the NLSY, I estimate the effect of a one year delay in school attendance on long run maternal labor supply. IV estimates imply that having a 5 year old enrolled in school increases labor supply measures for married women, with no younger children, by between 7 to 34 percent. Further, using a sample of 7 …
Monetary Regime Choice In Singapore: Would A Tayor Rule Outperform Exchange-Rate Management?, Hwee Kwan Chow, G.C. Lim, P. Mcnelis
Monetary Regime Choice In Singapore: Would A Tayor Rule Outperform Exchange-Rate Management?, Hwee Kwan Chow, G.C. Lim, P. Mcnelis
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper adopts a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium-vector autorgressive (DSGE-VAR) approach to examine the managed exchange-rate system at work in Singapore. We examine if the country has any reason to fear floating the exchange rate and adopting a Taylor rule. Our results show that, in terms of overall inflation volatility, the exchange rate rule has a comparative advantage over the Taylor rule when export price shocks are the major sources of real volatility, while a Taylor rule dominates when domestic productivity shocks drive real volatility. The exchange-rate rule also dominates the Taylor rule for reducing inflation persistence.
Testing Conditional Independence Via Empirical Likelihood, Liangjun Su, Halbert White
Testing Conditional Independence Via Empirical Likelihood, Liangjun Su, Halbert White
Research Collection School Of Economics
We construct two classes of smoothed empirical likelihood ratio tests for the conditional independence hypothesis by writing the null hypothesis as an infinite collection of conditional moment restrictions indexed by a nuisance parameter. One class is based on the CDF; another is based on smoother functions. We show that the test statistics are asymptotically normal under the null hypothesis and a sequence of Pitman local alternatives. We also show that the tests possess an asymptotic optimality property in terms of average power. Simulations suggest that the tests are well behaved in finite samples. Applications to some economic and financial time …
No Pass No Drive: Education And Allocation Of Time, Rashmi Rekha Barua, Marian Vidal-Fernandez
No Pass No Drive: Education And Allocation Of Time, Rashmi Rekha Barua, Marian Vidal-Fernandez
Research Collection School Of Economics
Since the late 1980s, several states in the US have introduced No Pass No Drive (NPND) laws that set minimum academic requirements for teenagers under 18 to obtain a driving license. Using data from the U.S. Census and Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey, we exploit cross-state, cross-cohort and cross-time variation in NPND laws to study their effect on educational outcomes and allocation of time among teenagers. Estimates using the Census show that NPND laws have a positive and significant effect on both years of completed schooling and the probability of high school completion among boys and blacks, but not girls. …
Financial Development, International Capital Flows, And Aggregate Output, Jürgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang
Financial Development, International Capital Flows, And Aggregate Output, Jürgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop a tractable two-country overlapping-generations model and show that cross-country differences in financial development can explain three recent empirical patterns of international capital flows: Financial capital flows from relatively poor to relatively rich countries, while foreign direct investment flows in the opposite direction; net capital flows go from poor to rich countries; despite its negative net international investment positions, the United States receives a positive net investment income. International capital mobility affects output in each country directly through the size of domestic investment and indirectly through the aggregate saving rate. Under certain conditions, the indirect effect may dominate the …
Nonparametric Dynamic Panel Data Models: Kernel Estimation And Specification Testing, Liangjun Su, Xun Lu
Nonparametric Dynamic Panel Data Models: Kernel Estimation And Specification Testing, Liangjun Su, Xun Lu
Research Collection School Of Economics
Motivated by the first differencing method for linear panel data models, we propose a class of iterative local polynomial estimators for nonparametric dynamic panel data models with or without exogeous regressors. The estimators utilize the additive structure of the first-differenced model, the fact that the two additive components have the same functional form, and the unknown function of interest is implicitly defined as a solution of a Fredholm integral equation of the second kind. We establish the uniform consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators. We also propose a consistent test for the correct specification of linearity in typical dynamic …
Demography, Development And The Origin Of Democracy: A Model With Case Studies Of Arachic Athens And Maritime England, Brishti Guha
Demography, Development And The Origin Of Democracy: A Model With Case Studies Of Arachic Athens And Maritime England, Brishti Guha
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.
Does Competition Within The Military Reduce Expropriation?, Madhav S. Aney, Giovanni Ko
Does Competition Within The Military Reduce Expropriation?, Madhav S. Aney, Giovanni Ko
Research Collection School Of Economics
How can agents in the military, which control the means of coercion, commit not to expropriate from producers? In this paper we propose competition within the military as one of the mechanisms that can deter predation and consequently create commitment. In our model, even if agents within the military could expropriate all output costlessly, it is attractive to protect producers from predating military units. This is because there is a marginal defensive advantage and consequently defense is an e ective way to potentially eliminate other military units, reducing competition and leading to higher future payo s. The model predicts that …
Qml Estimation Of Dynamic Panel Data Models With Spatial Errors, Liangjun Su, Zhenlin Yang
Qml Estimation Of Dynamic Panel Data Models With Spatial Errors, Liangjun Su, Zhenlin Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimation of dynamic panel models with spatial errors when the cross-sectional dimension n is large and the time dimension T is fixed. We consider both the random effects and fixed effects models and derive the limiting distributions of the QML estimators under different assumptions on the initial observations. We propose a residual-based bootstrap method for estimating the standard errors of the QML estimators. Monte Carlo simulation shows that both the QML estimators and the bootstrap standard errors perform well in finite samples under a correct assumption on initial observations, but may perform poorly when …
The Structure Of Strategy-Proof Random Social Choice Functions Over Product Domains And Lexicographically Separable Preferences, Shurojit Chatterji, Souvik Roy, Arunava Sen
The Structure Of Strategy-Proof Random Social Choice Functions Over Product Domains And Lexicographically Separable Preferences, Shurojit Chatterji, Souvik Roy, Arunava Sen
Research Collection School Of Economics
We characterize the class of dominant-strategy incentive-compatible (or strategy-proof) random social choice functions in the standard multi-dimensional voting model where voter preferences over the various dimensions (or components) are lexicographically separable. We show that these social choice functions (which we call generalized random dictatorships) are induced by probability distributions on voter sequences of length equal to the number of components. They induce a fixed probability distribution on the product set of voter peaks. The marginal probability distribution over every component is a random dictatorship. Our results generalize the classic random dictatorship result in Gibbard (1977) and the decomposability results for …
Optimal Design Of P-Value Consistent Step-Up Procedures For Multiple Comparisons With A Control In Direction-Mixed Families, Koon Shing Kwong, Siu Hung Cheung
Optimal Design Of P-Value Consistent Step-Up Procedures For Multiple Comparisons With A Control In Direction-Mixed Families, Koon Shing Kwong, Siu Hung Cheung
Research Collection School Of Economics
It is common in clinical studies for several treatments to be compared to a control. Most of the related statistical techniques have been developed to accommodate inferential families in which all hypotheses are either one- or two-sided such that the familywise error rate is controlled at a specified level. Several multiple testing procedures were recently proposed to perform multiple comparisons with a control in direction-mixed families that contain a mixture of one- and two-sided inferences. Of these procedures, the p-value consistent step-up procedure is found to be superior in terms of its power and p-value consistent property. In this paper, …
Contracting Over Prices, Shurojit Chatterji, Sayantan Ghosal
Contracting Over Prices, Shurojit Chatterji, Sayantan Ghosal
Research Collection School Of Economics
We define a solution concept, perfectly contracted equilibrium, for an intertemporal exchange economy where agents are simultaneously price takers in spot commodity markets while engaging inefficient, non-Walrasian contracting over future prices. Without requiring that agents have perfect foresight, we show that perfectly contracted equilibrium outcomes are a subset of Pareto optimal allocations. It is a robust possibility for perfectly contracted equilibrium outcomes to differ from Arrow-Debreu equilibrium outcomes. We show that both centralized banking and retrading with bilateral contracting can lead to perfectly contracted equilibria.
Grandparents As Guards: A Game Theoretic Analysis Of Inheritance And Post Marital Residence In A World Of Uncertain Paternity, Brishti Guha
Grandparents As Guards: A Game Theoretic Analysis Of Inheritance And Post Marital Residence In A World Of Uncertain Paternity, Brishti Guha
Research Collection School Of Economics
I unify the following (1) men face paternal uncertainty while women do not face maternal uncertainty, (2) putative fathers and paternal kin care about true paternity, (3) paternity confidence is systematically lower in matrilocal cultures than in patrilocal ones, (4) inheritance tends to be patrilineal in high paternity confidence cultures and matrilineal in low confidence ones, and (5) most societies with patrilineal inheritance were patrilocal while most societies with matrilineal inheritance were matrilocal. I model the co-evolution of inheritance patterns and post-marital residence patterns - and their relationship with paternity uncertainty. Using a game theoretic model, I examine how a …
Honesty And Intermediation: Corporate Cheating, Auditor Involvement And The Implications For Takeoff, Brishti Guha
Honesty And Intermediation: Corporate Cheating, Auditor Involvement And The Implications For Takeoff, Brishti Guha
Research Collection School Of Economics
We examine honesty and credible auditing in firm-investor relations in a repeated game of imperfect information, embedded in a general equilibrium framework. Informed auditors enhance credibility over a range of audit fees – despite the auditor’s incentive to collude – provided the probability of detection is imperfectly correlated across clients. Auditing can enhance growth especially for a relatively egalitarian distribution of wealth. We show that audit fees must be neither too high nor too low to enhance client credibility, highlight the role of mandatory audit fee disclosure, interpret international differences in shareholding patterns and uncover a possible rationale for audit …
Money And Asset Prices With Uninsurable Risks, Nicolas L. Jacquet, Serene Tan
Money And Asset Prices With Uninsurable Risks, Nicolas L. Jacquet, Serene Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop a model where the coexistence of money and a higher yielding asset is endogenously obtained when no restriction is placed on the use of either object as a medium of exchange. Due to the presence of uninsurable risks, agents have, in equilibrium, di⁄erent relative valuations of the asset to money, and hence, the use of money as a means of payment is strictly preferred. This endogenous di⁄erence in the willingness of agents to use money over the asset implies that money carries a greater liquidity premium than the asset. We obtain that the asset strictly dominates money in …
Singapore Inflation Expectations: Expecting The Unexpected, Aurobindo Ghosh, Jun Yu
Singapore Inflation Expectations: Expecting The Unexpected, Aurobindo Ghosh, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
The study of inflation expectations of Singapore house-holds is a multi-disciplinary industry-relevant research that comes out of a partnership between Singapore Management University (SMU) and MasterCard. The research team for this MasterCard-SKBI Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) project applied rigorous methods using current internet-based marketing survey tools for data-collection and advanced econometric techniques to analyse the data. The updates from the quarterly waves are keenly followed by policymakers, market watchers and the media because of the enormous importance of cost of living to individuals and businesses alike.
Dynamic Poverty Decomposition Analysis: An Application To The Philippines, Tomoki Fujii
Dynamic Poverty Decomposition Analysis: An Application To The Philippines, Tomoki Fujii
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper, we propose a new method of poverty decomposition. Our method remedies the shortcomings of existing methods and has some desirable properties such as time-reversion consistency and subperiod additivity. It integrates the existing methods of growth-redistribution decomposition and sector-based decomposition, because it allows us to decompose poverty change into growth and redistribution components for each group (e.g. regions or sectors) in the economy. We extend our method to have six components and provide an empirical application to the Philippines for the period 1985-2009.
The Coevolution Of Economic And Political Development From Monarchy To Democracy, Fali Huang
The Coevolution Of Economic And Political Development From Monarchy To Democracy, Fali Huang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper establishes a simple model of long run economic and political development, which is driven by the inherent technical features of different factors in production, and political conflicts among factor owners on how to divide the outputs. The main capital form in economy evolves from land to physical capital and then to human capital, which enables the respective factor owners (landlords, capitalists, and workers) to gain political powers in the same sequence, shaping the political development path from monarchy to elite ruling and finally to full suffrage. When it is too costly for any group of factor owners to …
Subgame Perfect Implementation Under Information Perturbations, Takashi Kunimoto, Drew Fudenberg, Takashi Kunimoto, Oliver Tercieux
Subgame Perfect Implementation Under Information Perturbations, Takashi Kunimoto, Drew Fudenberg, Takashi Kunimoto, Oliver Tercieux
Research Collection School Of Economics
We consider the robustness of extensive form mechanisms to deviations from common knowledge about the state of nature, which we refer to as information perturbations. First, we show that even under arbitrarily small information perturbations the Moore-Repullo mechanism does not yield (even approximately) truthful revelation and that in addition the mechanism has sequential equilibria with undesirable outcomes. More generally, we prove that any extensive form mechanism is fragile in the sense that if a non-Maskin monotonic social objective can be implemented with this mechanism, then there are arbitrarily small information perturbations under which an undesirable sequential equilibrium also exists. Finally, …
The Labor Supply And Welfare Effects Of Early Access To Medicare Through Social Security Disability Insurance, Kim
Research Collection School Of Economics
Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) beneficiaries receive a cash benefit and become eligible for health insurance from Medicare two years after their enrollment. Disabled workers who leave the labor force typically lose health insurance from their employers, and they face significant medical expenditure risk as a result of their disability. Therefore, access to Medicare makes SSDI an especially attractive alternative to remaining employed for workers with disabilities. My research is the first to analyze the importance of medical expenditure risk and Medicare in analysis of SSDI, and it addresses the following questions: (1) How does access to Medicare via SSDI …
Estimating Dynamic Discrete Choice Models Of Product Differentiation: An Application To Medicare Part D With Switching Costs, Daniel P. Miller, Jungwon Yeo
Estimating Dynamic Discrete Choice Models Of Product Differentiation: An Application To Medicare Part D With Switching Costs, Daniel P. Miller, Jungwon Yeo
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper proposes an algorithm to estimate dynamic discrete choice models using aggregate market share data. The algorithm achieves a computational advantage by decomposing the complicated mapping between market shares and utility flows into two simpler ones. The first maps observed market shares to mean choice specific values, and the second then maps to mean utility flows. In the application, we estimate switching costs in the Medicare Part D market. Our results indicate a large switching cost of around $1,700, which implies an average welfare loss of $480 as enrollees choose to remain in sub-optimal plans to avoid switching costs.
Trade, Firm Selection, And Industrial Agglomeration, Wen-Tai Hsu, Ping Wang
Trade, Firm Selection, And Industrial Agglomeration, Wen-Tai Hsu, Ping Wang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop a model of trade and agglomeration that incorporates trade in both intermediate goods and final goods and allows all firms to choose their locations. There are two types of labor: skilled labor, which is mobile, and unskilled labor, which is immobile. Upon choosing its factory site, a final goods firm that is managed by skilled labor can produce these goods using local unskilled labor and a variety of intermediate goods produced by productivity-heterogeneous producers. We characterize world equilibrium and establish the conditions under which industrial agglomeration arises as a stable equilibrium outcome. We show that when the unskilled …
Schooling, Political Participation, And The Economy, Filipe R. Campante, Davin Chor
Schooling, Political Participation, And The Economy, Filipe R. Campante, Davin Chor
Research Collection School Of Economics
We investigate how the link between individual schooling and political participation is a ected by country characteristics. Using individual survey data, we nd that political participation is more responsive to schooling in land-abundant countries, and less responsive in human capital-abundant countries, even while controlling for country political institutions and cultural attitudes. We propose an explanation that centers on how individuals allocate the use of their human capital. A relative abundance of land (used primarily in the least skill-intensive sector) or a scarcity of aggregate hu- man capital increases both the level of political participation and its responsiveness to schooling, by …
Unilateral Measures And Emissions Mitigation, Shurojit Chatterji, Sayantan Ghosal, Sean Walsh, John Whalley
Unilateral Measures And Emissions Mitigation, Shurojit Chatterji, Sayantan Ghosal, Sean Walsh, John Whalley
Research Collection School Of Economics
We discuss global climate mitigation that builds on existing unilateral measures to cut emissions. We document and discuss the rationale for such unilateral measures argue that such measures have the potential to generate positive spillover effects both within and across countries. In a simple dynamic model of learning we show that while single countries on their own may never get to the point of switching completely to low emission activities, a learning process with positive spillovers across nations is more likely to deliver a global switch to low emissions. We discuss the key features of a new global Intellectual Property …
Estimation Of High-Frequency Volatility: An Autoregressive Conditional Duration Approach, Yiu Kuen Tse, Thomas Tao Yang
Estimation Of High-Frequency Volatility: An Autoregressive Conditional Duration Approach, Yiu Kuen Tse, Thomas Tao Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose a method to estimate the intraday volatility of a stock by integrating the instantaneous conditional return variance per unit time obtained from the autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, called the ACD-ICV method. We compare the daily volatility estimated using the ACD-ICV method against several versions of the realized volatility (RV) method, including the bipower variation RV with subsampling, the realized kernel estimate, and the duration-based RV. Our Monte Carlo results show that the ACD-ICV method has lower root mean-squared error than the RV methods in almost all cases considered. This article has online supplementary material.
Foreign Direct Investment: Clearing The Infrastructure Bottlenecks, Kim Song Tan, Sim Yee Lau
Foreign Direct Investment: Clearing The Infrastructure Bottlenecks, Kim Song Tan, Sim Yee Lau
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.
An Evolutionary Analysis Of Turnout With Conformist Citizens, Massimiliano Landi, Mauro Sodini
An Evolutionary Analysis Of Turnout With Conformist Citizens, Massimiliano Landi, Mauro Sodini
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose an evolutionary analysis of a voting game where citizens have a preference for conformism that adds to the instrumental preference for the electoral outcome. Multiple equilibria arise, and some generate high turnout. Simulations of best response dynamics show that high turnout is asymptotically stable if conformism matters but its likelihood depends on the reference group for conformism: high turnout is more likely when voters care about their own group's choice, as this better overrides the free rider problem of voting games. Comparative statics on the voting cost distribution, the population's size or the groups' composition are also done.
A Generalized Representation Theorem For Harsanyi's ('Impartial') Observer, Simon Grant, Atsushi Kajii, Ben Polak, Zvi Safra
A Generalized Representation Theorem For Harsanyi's ('Impartial') Observer, Simon Grant, Atsushi Kajii, Ben Polak, Zvi Safra
Research Collection School Of Economics
We provide an axiomatization of an additively separable social welfare function in the context of Harsanyi's impartial observer theorem. To do this, we reformulate Harsanyi's setting to make the lotteries over the identities the observer may assume independent of the social alternative.