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Articles 571 - 600 of 1733
Full-Text Articles in Economics
Integrated Deviance Information Criterion For Latent Variable Models, Yong Li, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng
Integrated Deviance Information Criterion For Latent Variable Models, Yong Li, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng
Research Collection School Of Economics
Deviance information criterion (DIC) has been widely used for Bayesian model comparison, especially after Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to estimate candidate models. This paper studies the problem of using DIC to compare latent variable models after the models are estimated by MCMC together with the data augmentation technique. Our contributions are twofold. First, we show that when MCMC is used with data augmentation, it undermines theoretical underpinnings of DIC. As a result, by treating latent variables as parameters, the widely used way of constructing DIC based on the conditional likelihood, although facilitating computation, should not be used. …
On Random Social Choice Functions With The Tops-Only Property, Shurojit Chatterji, Huaxia Zeng
On Random Social Choice Functions With The Tops-Only Property, Shurojit Chatterji, Huaxia Zeng
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study the standard voting model with randomization. A Random Social Choice Function (or RSCF) satisfies the tops-only property if the social lottery under each preference profile depends only on the peaks of voters' preferences. We identify a general condition on domains of preferences (the Interior Property and the Exterior Property) which ensures that every strategy-proof RSCF satisfying unanimity has the tops-only property. We show that our condition applies to important classes of voting domains which include restricted connected domains (Sato, 2013) and the multi-dimensional single-peaked domain (Barberà et al., 1993). As an application of our result, we show that …
Limit Theory For Mildly Integrated Process With Intercept, Yijie Fei
Limit Theory For Mildly Integrated Process With Intercept, Yijie Fei
Research Collection School Of Economics
Some asymptotic results are given for first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) time series with two features: (i). a nonzero constant intercept (ii). a root moderately deviating from unity. Both stationary and explosive sides are studied. It is shown that the inclusion of intercept will change drastically the large sample properties of the least-squares (LS) estimator obtained in Phillips and Magdalinos (2007, PM hereafter). For near-stationary case, only an unusual convergence of a linear combination of intercept and AR coefficient can be derived. For near-explosive case, on the other hand, the limiting distributions of two estimators will be independent and Gaussian, with conventional …
Barriers To Labor Migration For The Rural Poor: Experimental Evidence From A Vocational Training Program In Bangladesh, Abu S. Shonchoy, Tomoki Fujii, Selim Raihan
Barriers To Labor Migration For The Rural Poor: Experimental Evidence From A Vocational Training Program In Bangladesh, Abu S. Shonchoy, Tomoki Fujii, Selim Raihan
Research Collection School Of Economics
Vocational training programs aimed at rapidly growing sectors have the potential to reduce skill gaps as well as improve income and employment possibilities. Such programs have often been unsuccessful because they are not driven by industry demand and market linkages. Also, they do not tackle other barriers faced by trainees, such as savings and credit constraints and the uncertainty of migration. We introduced a training "plus'' program for the apparel sector jobs offered to the poor, rural households in northern Bangladesh, where we relaxed some of these constraints in a rigorous Randomized Control Trial (RCT) setting. Analyzing the program uptake …
A Large Class Of Strategy-Proof Exchange Rules With Single-Peaked Preferences, Peng Liu
A Large Class Of Strategy-Proof Exchange Rules With Single-Peaked Preferences, Peng Liu
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study the classical house exchange problem (Shapley and Scarf (1974)) and identified a large class of rules, each of which is strategy-proof, efficient, and individually rational with single-peaked preferences. These rules are generalisations of Gale’s top trading cycles rule: In each step a subset of houses are allowed to be traded along top trading cycles and in particular, the next step subset of trading houses may depend on the exchanges happened already. We believe that the flexibility introduced by this class of rules is desirable when the designer faces some context-specific requirements.
Industrial Output Fluctuations In Developing Countries: General Equilibrium Consequences Of Agricultural Productivity Shocks, Iona Hyojung Lee
Industrial Output Fluctuations In Developing Countries: General Equilibrium Consequences Of Agricultural Productivity Shocks, Iona Hyojung Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper shows that a negative shock to agricultural productivity may increase food prices, and labor and capital can move away from manufacturing into agriculture to meet the subsistence requirement for food. This effect depends on income levels and openness to trade. Using annual manufacturing data and rainfall shocks as the instrument for crop yields (proxy for agricultural productivity), I find that an exogenous decline in yield decreases manufacturing output as well as employment and capital investment in manufacturing. Overall, crop yield variation can explain up to 44% of industrial output fluctuations in developing countries (rainfall shocks cause 31% of …
On Random Social Choice Functions With The Tops-Only Property, Shurojit Chatterji, Huaxia Zeng
On Random Social Choice Functions With The Tops-Only Property, Shurojit Chatterji, Huaxia Zeng
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study the standard voting model with randomization. A Random Social Choice Function (or RSCF) satisfies the tops-only property if the social lottery under each preference profile depends only on the peaks of voters' preferences. We identify a general condition on domains of preferences (the Interior Property and the Exterior Property) which ensures that every strategy-proof RSCF satisfying unanimity has the tops-only property. We show that our condition applies to important classes of voting domains which include restricted connected domains (Sato, 2013) and the multi-dimensional single-peaked domain (Barberà et al., 1993). As an application of our result, we show that …
Return And Volatility Spillovers Between The Renminbi And Asian Currencies, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan
Return And Volatility Spillovers Between The Renminbi And Asian Currencies, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper examines the extent of interdependence between the Chinese Renminbi and Asian currenciesafter the global financial crisis. We combine the distinct influence of offshore Renminbi with the impact ofthe onshore rate on eight Asian currencies (including the Australian dollar). Diebold-Yilmaz spilloverindexes reveal Asian foreign exchange markets are subject to considerable cross-border transmissions. Interms of the US dollar bilateral exchange rates, cross-border transfers of daily return are strongercompared to daily volatility reflecting currency management by regional authorities to curb excessiveexchange rate volatility. Return spillovers from the Renminbi markets to individual Asian foreignexchange markets are generally on par with that from …
Sequentially Testing Polynomial Model Hypotheses Using Power Transforms Of Regressors, Jin Seo Cho, Peter C. B. Phillips
Sequentially Testing Polynomial Model Hypotheses Using Power Transforms Of Regressors, Jin Seo Cho, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
We provide a methodology for testing a polynomial model hypothesis by generalizing the approach and results of Baek, Cho, and Phillips (Journal of Econometrics, 2015, 187, 376–384; BCP), which test for neglected nonlinearity using power transforms of regressors against arbitrary nonlinearity. We use the BCP quasi-likelihood ratio test and deal with the new multifold identification problem that arises under the null of the polynomial model. The approach leads to convenient asymptotic theory for inference, has omnibus power against general nonlinear alternatives, and allows estimation of an unknown polynomial degree in a model by way of sequential testing, a technique that …
Extremal Quantile Treatment Effects, Yichong Zhang
Extremal Quantile Treatment Effects, Yichong Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper establishes an asymptotic theory and inference method for quantile treatment effect estimators when the quantile index is close to or equal to zero. Such quantile treatment effects are of interest in many applications, such as the effect of maternal smoking on an infant’s adverse birth outcomes. When the quantile index is close to zero, the sparsity of data jeopardizes conventional asymptotic theory and bootstrap inference. When the quantile index is zero, there are no existing inference methods directly applicable in the treatment effect context. This paper addresses both of these issues by proposing new inference methods that are …
Informing Medicare's Two-Midnight Rule Policy With An Analysis Of Hospital-Based Long Observation Stays, Brad Wright, Xuan Zhang, Momotazur Rahman, Keith Kocher
Informing Medicare's Two-Midnight Rule Policy With An Analysis Of Hospital-Based Long Observation Stays, Brad Wright, Xuan Zhang, Momotazur Rahman, Keith Kocher
Research Collection School Of Economics
Outpatient observation stays are increasingly substituting for standard inpatient hospitalizations. In 2013, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services adopted the controversial Two-Midnight Rule policy to curb long observation stays and better define the use of hospital-based observation services versus inpatient hospitalizations. We seek to determine the extent to which Medicare beneficiaries exposed to long observation stays (>48 hours) are clinically similar to those with short observation stays (≤48 hours) because this has relevance to the Two-Midnight Rule.\nUsing 100% Medicare claims data from 2008 to 2010, we identified all patients with long observation stays (>48 hours) who were …
Pythagorean Generalization Of Testing The Equality Of Two Symmetric Positive Definite Matrices, Jin Seo Cho, Peter C. B. Phillips
Pythagorean Generalization Of Testing The Equality Of Two Symmetric Positive Definite Matrices, Jin Seo Cho, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
We provide a new test for equality of two symmetric positive-definite matrices that leads to a convenient mechanism for testing specification using the information matrix equality or the sandwich asymptotic covariance matrix of the GMM estimator. The test relies on a new characterization of equality between two k dimensional symmetric positive-definite matrices A and B: the traces of AB−1 and BA−1 are equal to k if and only if A=B. Using this simple criterion, we introduce a class of omnibus test statistics for equality and examine their null and local alternative approximations under some mild regularity conditions. A preferred test …
The Impact Of The Cost Of Car Ownership On House Price Gradient In Singapore, Naqun Huang, Jing Li, Amanda Ross
The Impact Of The Cost Of Car Ownership On House Price Gradient In Singapore, Naqun Huang, Jing Li, Amanda Ross
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper examines the extent to which a change in the cost of car ownership affects the house price gradient with respect to distance from the central business district (CBD). Theory suggests that if the cost of car ownership increases, then people will shift towards other modes of transportation, thus reducing house prices farther away from the CBD. However, the cost of car ownership is likely to be endogenous and correlated with various unobserved factors that also contribute to a change in the house price gradient. To obtain causal effects, we exploit a unique feature of Singapore’s car registration process. …
Universalism And The Value Of Political Power, Yumi Koh
Universalism And The Value Of Political Power, Yumi Koh
Research Collection School Of Economics
While legislatures typically use majority rule to allocate a budget in distributive legislation, near-unanimous consent over the broad allocation of benefits is pervasive. I develop a game-theoretic model where players strategically interact in a universal coalition to determine allocations, with non-cooperative bargaining as a threat point for the breakdown of cooperation. To quantify the effects of political power and actual needs on the agreed-upon allocation, I structurally estimate the model using the "Bridge Bill Capital Budget" in 1992. I find that 9.58% of the budget would be allocated differently if allocations were determined only based on actual needs.
Contributors Of Singaporean Youths' Wellbeing: Life Goals, Family-Community-Nation Capitals, Opportunity And Social Mobility, Kong Weng Ho
Contributors Of Singaporean Youths' Wellbeing: Life Goals, Family-Community-Nation Capitals, Opportunity And Social Mobility, Kong Weng Ho
Research Collection School Of Economics
Life goals induce one’s current investment and set one’s expectations of future outcomes, affecting one’s current state of subjective wellbeing. Using National Youth Survey (NYS) 2016, which has a representative sample of Singaporean youths, we find that non-zero-sum life goals such as family-oriented life goals and altruism-oriented life goals enhance happiness and life satisfaction of Singaporean youths while career-oriented life goals, zero-sum in nature, reduce subjective wellbeing. Apart from personal motivations or life aspirations, perceived social mobility (in terms of career opportunity and meritocracy) matters positively in the subjective wellbeing of both youths in school and in the workforce. Family …
Sequential Auctions With Decreasing Reserve Prices., Massimiliano Landi, Domenico Menicucci
Sequential Auctions With Decreasing Reserve Prices., Massimiliano Landi, Domenico Menicucci
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study sequential sealed bid auctions with decreasing reserve prices when there are two identical objects for sale and unit-demand bidders (existing literature has dealt with the case of weakly increasing reserve prices). Under decreasing reserve prices bidders may have an incentive not to bid in the first auction, and no equilibrium exists with a strictly increasing stage one bidding function. However, we find that an equilibrium always exists, and its shape depends on the distance between the two reserve prices. The equilibrium exhibits some pooling at the stage one auction, which disappears in the limit as the number of …
Evidence Of Racial And Geographic Disparities In The Use Of Medicare Observation Stays And Subsequent Patient Outcomes Relative To Short-Stay Hospitalizations, Brad Wright, Xuan Zhang, Momotazur Rahman, Mahshid Abir, Padmaja Ayyagari, Keith E. Kocher
Evidence Of Racial And Geographic Disparities In The Use Of Medicare Observation Stays And Subsequent Patient Outcomes Relative To Short-Stay Hospitalizations, Brad Wright, Xuan Zhang, Momotazur Rahman, Mahshid Abir, Padmaja Ayyagari, Keith E. Kocher
Research Collection School Of Economics
To examine racial and geographic disparities in the use of-and outcomes associated with-Medicare observation stays versus short-stay hospitalizations.\nWe used 2007-2010 fee-for-service Medicare claims, including 3,555,994 observation and short-stay hospitalizations for individuals over age 65. We estimated linear probability models with hospital fixed effects to identify within-facility disparities in observation stay use, and estimated in-hospital mortality, and 30- and 90-day post-discharge mortality, return ED visits, and hospital readmissions as a function of placement in observation using linear probability models, propensity-score matching, and interaction terms.\nWe identified racial and geographic disparities in the likelihood of observation stay use within hospitals (blacks 3.9 percentage …
Bayesian Analysis Of Bubbles In Asset Prices, Andras Fulop, Jun Yu
Bayesian Analysis Of Bubbles In Asset Prices, Andras Fulop, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop a new asset price model where the dynamic structure of the asset price, after the fundamental value is removed, is subject to two different regimes. One regime reflects the normal period where the asset price divided by the dividend is assumed to follow a mean-reverting process around a stochastic long run mean. This latter is allowed to account for possible smooth structural change. The second regime reflects the bubble period with explosive behavior. Stochastic switches between two regimes and non-constant probabilities of exit from the bubble regime are both allowed. A Bayesian learning approach is employed to jointly …
Inference In Continuous Systems With Mildly Explosive Regressors, Ye Chen, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Inference In Continuous Systems With Mildly Explosive Regressors, Ye Chen, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
New limit theory is developed for co-moving systems with explosive processes, connecting continuous and discrete time formulations. The theory uses double asymptotics with infill (as the sampling interval tends to zero) and large time span asymptotics. The limit theory explicitly involves initial conditions, allows for drift in the system, is provided for single and multiple explosive regressors, and is feasible to implement in practice. Simulations show that double asymptotics deliver a good approximation to the finite sample distribution, with both finite sample and asymptotic distributions showing sensitivity to initial conditions. The methods are implemented in the US real estate market …
Identifying Latent Group Structures In Nonlinear Panels, Wuyi Wang, Liangjun Su
Identifying Latent Group Structures In Nonlinear Panels, Wuyi Wang, Liangjun Su
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose a procedure to identify latent group structures in nonlinear panel data models where some regression coefficients are heterogeneous across groups but homogeneous within a group and the group number and membership are unknown. To identify the group structures, we consider the order statistics for the preliminary unconstrained consistent estimators of the regression coefficients and translate the problem of classification into the problem of break detection. Then we extend the sequential binary segmentation algorithm of Bai (1997) for break detection from the time series setup to the panel data framework. We demonstrate that our method is able to identify …
Business Time Sampling Scheme With Applications To Testing Semi-Martingale Hypothesis And Estimating Integrated Volatility, Yingjie Dong, Yiu Kuen Tse
Business Time Sampling Scheme With Applications To Testing Semi-Martingale Hypothesis And Estimating Integrated Volatility, Yingjie Dong, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose a new method to implement the Business Time Sampling (BTS) scheme for high-frequency financial data. We compute a time-transformation (TT) function using the intraday integrated volatility estimated by a jump-robust method. The BTS transactions are obtained using the inverse of the TT function. Using our sampled BTS transactions, we test the semi-martingale hypothesis of the stock log-price process and estimate the daily realized volatility. Our method improves the normality approximation of the standardized business-time return distribution. Our Monte Carlo results show that the integrated volatility estimates using our proposed sampling strategy provide smaller root mean-squared error.
Cultural Preferences In International Trade: Evidence From The Globalization Of Korean Pop Culture, Pao-Li Chang, Iona Hyojung Lee
Cultural Preferences In International Trade: Evidence From The Globalization Of Korean Pop Culture, Pao-Li Chang, Iona Hyojung Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
The Korean pop culture (TVdramas and K-pop music) has grown immensely popular across the globe over thepast two decades. This paper analyzes its impacts on international trade. We compilea cross-country panel dataset of South Korea's TV show exports to over 150countries for the period of 1998{2014. These variations in exposure to Koreanpop cultures are used to identify changes in consumer preferences for Koreanmerchandise across time, countries, and products (at the HS 4-digit level).First, we find that more Korean TV show exports significantly increase Koreanexports of goods for women, while the effects are much smaller on men'smerchandise. This strongly supports the …
Inference In Continuous Systems With Mildly Explosive Regressors, Ye Chen, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Inference In Continuous Systems With Mildly Explosive Regressors, Ye Chen, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
New limit theory is developed for co-moving systems with explosive processes, connecting continuous and discrete time formulations. The theory uses double asymptotics with infill (as the sampling interval tends to zero) and large time span asymptotics. The limit theory explicitly involves initial conditions, allows for drift in the system, is provided for single and multiple explosive regressors, and is feasible to implement in practice. Simulations show that double asymptotics deliver a good approximation to the finite sample distribution, with both finite sample and asymptotic distributions showing sensitivity to initial conditions. The methods are implemented in the US real estate market …
Volatility Spillovers And Linkages In Asian Stock Markets, Hwee Kwan Chow
Volatility Spillovers And Linkages In Asian Stock Markets, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
Diebold–Yilmaz spillover indexes are computed for weekly return volatilities based on daily benchmark stock indexes of the US, the UK, and 10 Asian countries. We found (i) the strengthening of overall volatility spillovers is not a temporary surge but persisted after the crisis; (ii) the susceptibility of individual Asian stock markets to inward volatility transfers is linked to its degree of openness; and (iii) the Asian bourses are becoming more important emitters of financial shocks since the crisis. Rolling regressions on volatility linkages reveal the relative dominance of the US over the Japanese and Chinese bourses, and the level of …
Dynamic Poverty Decomposition Analysis: An Application To The Philippines, Tomoki Fujii
Dynamic Poverty Decomposition Analysis: An Application To The Philippines, Tomoki Fujii
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper, we propose a new method of poverty decomposition. Our method remedies the shortcomings of existing methods and has some desirable properties such as time-revision consistency and subperiod additivity. It integrates the existing methods of growth-redistribution decomposition and sector based decomposition, because it allows us to decompose poverty change into growth and redistribution components for each group (e.g., regions or sectors) in the economy. We extend out method to have six components and provide empirical application to the Philippines for the period of 1985 to 2009.
Estimating Finite-Horizon Life-Cycle Models: A Quasi-Bayesian Approach, Xiaobin Liu
Estimating Finite-Horizon Life-Cycle Models: A Quasi-Bayesian Approach, Xiaobin Liu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper proposes a quasi-Bayesian approach for structural parameters in finite-horizon life-cycle models. This approach circumvents the numerical evaluation of the gradient of the objective function and alleviates the local optimum problem. The asymptotic normality of the estimators with and without approximation errors is derived. The proposed estimators reach the semiparametric eciency bound in the general methods of moment (GMM) framework. Both the estimators and the corresponding asymptotic covariance are readily computable. The estimation procedure is easy to parallel so that the graphic processing unit (GPU) can be used to enhance the computational speed. The estimation procedure is illustrated using …
Determining The Number Of Groups In Latent Panel Structures With An Application To Income And Democracy, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su
Determining The Number Of Groups In Latent Panel Structures With An Application To Income And Democracy, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su
Research Collection School Of Economics
We consider a latent group panel structure as recently studied by Su, Shi, and Phillips (2014), where the number of groups is unknown and has to be determined empirically. We propose a testing procedure to determine the number of roups. Our test is a residualbased LM-type test. We show that after being appropriately standardized, our test is asymptotically normally distributed under the null hypothesis of a given number of groups and has power to detect deviations from the null. Monte Carlo simulations show that our test performs remarkably well in finite samples. We apply our method to study the effect …
Urban Rail Transit Ppps: Lessons From East Asian Cities, Zheng Chang, Sock Yong Phang
Urban Rail Transit Ppps: Lessons From East Asian Cities, Zheng Chang, Sock Yong Phang
Research Collection School Of Economics
Private sector participation in urban rail transit has proliferated in the past two decades. The large metropolises of East Asia have had decades of experience with private sector participation in the provision of heavy metro services. The design of these public–private partnerships (PPP) are varied. The diverse experiences of Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore and Beijing contain valuable lessons for other cities. Using a case study approach, this paper discusses three features of urban rail transitdevelopments in the context of East Asian cities, viz., farebox recovery, land value capture mechanisms, and vertical structure of the industry. Super vertical integration between rail …
The Role Of Macroeconomic, Policy, And Forecaster Uncertainty In Forecast Dispersion, You Li, Anthony S. Tay
The Role Of Macroeconomic, Policy, And Forecaster Uncertainty In Forecast Dispersion, You Li, Anthony S. Tay
Research Collection School Of Economics
We explore the role of uncertainty in explaining dispersion in professional forecasters’ density forecasts of real output growth and inflation. We consider three separate notions of uncertainty: general macroeconomic uncertainty (the fact that macroeconomic variables are easier to forecast at some times than at others), policy uncertainty, and forecaster uncertainty. We find that dispersion in individual density forecasts is related to overall macroeconomic uncertainty and policy uncertainty, while forecaster uncertainty (which we define as the average in the uncertainty expressed by individual forecasters) appears to have little role in forecast dispersion.
Does "America First" Help America? The Impact Of Country Image On Exports And Welfare, Pao-Li Chang, Tomoki Fujii, Wei Jin
Does "America First" Help America? The Impact Of Country Image On Exports And Welfare, Pao-Li Chang, Tomoki Fujii, Wei Jin
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper estimates the effects of bilateral and time-varying preference bias on trade flows and welfare. We use a unique dataset from the BBC World Opinion Poll that surveys (annually during 2005-2017 with some gaps) the populations from a wide array of countries on their views of whether an evaluated country is having a mainly positive or negative influence in the world. We identify the effects on bilateral preference parameters due to shifts in these country image perceptions, and quantify their general equilibrium effects on bilateral exports and welfare (each time for an evaluated exporting country, assuming that the exporting …