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Articles 31 - 60 of 1733
Full-Text Articles in Economics
Brand Switching Or Behavior Change: The 2023 Bud Light Boycott's Impact On Alcohol Purchases, Aljoscha Janssen
Brand Switching Or Behavior Change: The 2023 Bud Light Boycott's Impact On Alcohol Purchases, Aljoscha Janssen
Research Collection School Of Economics
I study how the 2023 Bud Light boycott affected overall alcohol demand using household-level panel data and a set of difference-in-differences designs. Focusing on households that, before April 2023, regularly purchased Bud Light, I find a large drop in Bud Light volume (34%–37%), partial switching into other beer (＋70 to ＋90 ounces per month), and a net decline in total ethanol purchases of about 3–4 fl-oz per month, or roughly 5.5%–7.5% of pre-boycott intake. I detect no compensatory increase in wine or spirits. Scaled nationally, the quantity response is equivalent to roughly 150 million standard drinks per year; using CDC …
Are Cities Losing Innovation Advantages? Online Versus Face-To-Face Interactions, Ruben Gaetani, Naqun Huang, Jing Li, Yanmin Yang
Are Cities Losing Innovation Advantages? Online Versus Face-To-Face Interactions, Ruben Gaetani, Naqun Huang, Jing Li, Yanmin Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
How did COVID-19 affect the innovation advantages of dense locations? Using data on the universe of U.S. patent applications, we find that the density premium in the production of novel inventions declined by 18.5%-22.9% in 2020-2021 relative to its pre-pandemic level. Smartphone data on local mobility suggest that the drop in the frequency of local interactions can explain a significant portion of this effect. While COVID-19 resulted in a temporary setback in the innovation advantages of dense locations, the role of urban density in facilitating the exchange and recombination of ideas is unlikely to be persistently replaced by online communication.
Removed: When Taxi Drivers Meet Dynamic Pricing: A Lesson From Singapore's Justgrab Program, Shih-Fen Cheng, Wen-Tai Hsu, Jing Li
Removed: When Taxi Drivers Meet Dynamic Pricing: A Lesson From Singapore's Justgrab Program, Shih-Fen Cheng, Wen-Tai Hsu, Jing Li
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper studies how dynamic pricing influences taxi drivers’ behaviors using a unique event, the inception of the JustGrab program in Singapore in 2017, which introduces dynamic pricing to some, but not all, taxi drivers. This is the first time in history that traditional taxi drivers have access to dynamic pricing. Using data covering the universe of taxi trips before and after the inception of JustGrab, we find that there is spatial reallocation that directs more taxi drivers to the previously less-served areas, that there is also a temporal reallocation that directs more taxi drivers to rush hours, as well …
Projecting Inflation Tail Risks In A Small Open Economy: Some Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan, Jordan Lee
Projecting Inflation Tail Risks In A Small Open Economy: Some Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan, Jordan Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
This study empirically assesses the drivers of risks to the inflation outlook for a small open economy like Singapore. We apply the inflation-at-risk framework of López-Salido and Loria (2020) and incorporate projections from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) as point forecasts of inflation. Our findings show that macro-financial risk factors—shaped by Singapore’s openness, role as a financial hub, and exchange rate–centered monetary policy framework—enter nonlinearly into inflation risk models and exert differentiated effects. Foreign price pressures heighten upside risks, and exchange rate policy has proven effective at mitigating them. Tighter global financial conditions amplify inflation risks through cost-push channels, …
New Asymptotics Applied To Functional Coefficient Regression And Climate Sensitivity Analysis, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Ying Wang
New Asymptotics Applied To Functional Coefficient Regression And Climate Sensitivity Analysis, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Ying Wang
Research Collection School Of Economics
A general asymptotic theory is established for sample cross moments of nonstationary time series, allowing for long-range dependence and local unit roots. The theory provides a substantial extension of earlier results on nonparametric regression that include near-cointegrated nonparametric regression as well as spurious nonparametric regression. Many new models are covered by the limit theory, among which are functional coefficient regressions in which both regressors and the functional covariate are nonstationary. Simulations show finite sample performance matching well with the asymptotic theory and having broad relevance to applications, while revealing how dual nonstationarity in regressors and covariates raises sensitivity to bandwidth …
Testing Mean Stability Of Heteroskedastic Time Series, Violetta Dalla, Liudas Giraitis, Peter C. B. Phillips
Testing Mean Stability Of Heteroskedastic Time Series, Violetta Dalla, Liudas Giraitis, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
Time series models are often fitted to the data without preliminary checks for stability of the mean and variance, conditions that may not hold in much economic and financial data, particularly over long periods. Ignoring such shifts may result in fitting models with spurious dynamics that lead to unsupported and controversial conclusions about time dependence, causality, and the effects of unanticipated shocks. In spite of what may seem as obvious differences between a time series of independent variates with changing variance and a stationary conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) process, such processes may be hard to distinguish in applied work using basic …
Shrinkflation And Consumer Demand, Aljoscha Janssen, Johannes Kasinger
Shrinkflation And Consumer Demand, Aljoscha Janssen, Johannes Kasinger
Research Collection School Of Economics
This study investigates shrinkflation—the practice of reducing product size while maintaining or slightly changing prices—in the U.S. retail grocery market. We analyze a decade of retail scanner data to assess the prevalence and patterns of product size changes across various product categories. Our findings show that approximately 1.92% of products have been downsized. When comparing total sales, product downsizing is more than five times as prevalent as upsizing. Product downsizing typically occurs without a corresponding decrease in price and is widespread across product categories. Consequently, consumers end up paying more per unit volume. We further find that consumers are more …
Childlessness And Health In Middle Age And Older Adulthood: Evidence From Singapore, Christine Ho, Dahye Kim, Rohan Ray, Bussarawan Teerawichitchainan
Childlessness And Health In Middle Age And Older Adulthood: Evidence From Singapore, Christine Ho, Dahye Kim, Rohan Ray, Bussarawan Teerawichitchainan
Research Collection School Of Economics
Health and well-being in mature adulthood are important concerns given the prevalence of individuals aging without children. We exploit two new instruments for childlessness— infertility and the number of childless siblings—and condition our analyses on a rich set of covariates including childhood health and financial status, to investigate the causal relationship between childlessness and health in middle age and older adulthood. Using a nationwide dataset of 1,500 Singaporeans aged 50 and above, we show that OLS underestimates the negativeeffects of childlessness on health. We find that childlessness leads to higher likelihood of poorer self-reported health and mental distress. The results …
Uncovering Mild Drift In Asset Prices With Intraday High-Frequency Data, Shuping Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips
Uncovering Mild Drift In Asset Prices With Intraday High-Frequency Data, Shuping Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
Asset prices are commonly represented as a drift-diffusion process, wherein the drift component denotes the anticipated return of the asset within some time frame, while the diffusion component accommodates random shocks. The drift component has substantial practical significance but accurate estimation is typically challenging and has met with limited success in the existing literature except over large time spans. This paper explores a comprehensive range of drift-diffusion models that include constant, linear, trending, and bursting drift. Conditions are identified under which realized squared drift is a reliable tool for gauging integrated squared drift when the time span Tn is large …
Assessing Ethereum’S Diversification Role With Bitcoin And Major Equity Index – A Bayesian Mixture Copula Approach, Jackie Li, Jacie Jia Liu
Assessing Ethereum’S Diversification Role With Bitcoin And Major Equity Index – A Bayesian Mixture Copula Approach, Jackie Li, Jacie Jia Liu
Research Collection School Of Economics
With the introduction of spot Ethereum ETFs, Ethereum plays an increasingly important role in the cryptocurrency market. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian modelling framework incorporating a mixture copula for co-modelling Ethereum returns with Bitcoin or FTSE 100 returns. The mixture copula is designed as a combination of the Clayton copula and its three rotations, Frank, and Gaussian copulas. It provides substantial flexibility for handling a variety of dependency structures. The Bayesian approach offers the advantage of jointly estimating both the margins and copulas and simulating future returns in a coherent procedure. Using 10 different risk or risk-return measures, …
Gmm Estimation With Brownian Kernels Applied To Income Inequality Measurement, Jin Seo Cho, Peter C. B. Phillips
Gmm Estimation With Brownian Kernels Applied To Income Inequality Measurement, Jin Seo Cho, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
In GMM estimation, it is well known that if the moment dimension grows with the sample size, the asymptotics of GMM differ from the standard finite dimensional case. The present work examines the asymptotic properties of infinite dimensional GMM estimation when the weight matrix is formed by inverting Brownian motion or Brownian bridge covariance kernels. These kernels arise in econometric work such as minimum Cramér–von Mises distance estimation when testing distributional specification. The properties of GMM estimation are studied under different environments where the moment conditions converge to a smooth Gaussian or non-differentiable Gaussian process. Conditions are also developed for …
Robust Implementation In Rationalizable Strategies In General Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Rene Saran
Robust Implementation In Rationalizable Strategies In General Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Rene Saran
Research Collection School Of Economics
A social choice function (SCF) is robustly implementable in rationalizable strate-gies if every rationalizable strategy profile on every type space results in outcomes consistent with it. First, we establish an equivalence between robust implementation in rationalizable strategies and “weak rationalizable implementation”. Second, using the equivalence result, we identify weak robust monotonicity as a necessary and al-most sufficient condition for robust implementation in rationalizable strategies. This exhibits a contrast with robust implementation in interim equilibria, i.e., every equilib-rium on every type space achieves outcomes consistent with the SCF. Bergemann and Morris (2011) show that strict robust monotonicity is a necessary and …
Competition Through Entry Fees Between Auctions For Differentiated Objects, Massimiliano Landi, Domenico Menicucci, Domenico Colucci
Competition Through Entry Fees Between Auctions For Differentiated Objects, Massimiliano Landi, Domenico Menicucci, Domenico Colucci
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper considers two competing auctions with objects differentiated according to the random utility framework introduced in Perloff and Salop (1985): bidders privately observe their values for the two objects, and values are ex ante i.i.d. across objects and across bidders. For the case of uniform distribution of values, we show that competition under entry fees is less intense than competition under reserve prices in the sense that sellers are better off, and bidders are worse off when competition takes place with entry fees rather than under reserve prices. The key difference between the two settings is that undercutting under …
Weak Identification Of Long Memory With Implications For Volatility Modeling;, Jia Li, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu
Weak Identification Of Long Memory With Implications For Volatility Modeling;, Jia Li, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper explores implications of weak identification in common ‘long memory’ and recent ‘rough’ approaches to modeling volatility dynamics of financial assets. We unveil an asymptotic near-observational equivalence between a long memory model with weak autoregressive dynamics and a rough model with a near-unit autoregressive root. Standard methods struggle to distinguish them, and conventional asymptotics are invalid. We propose an identification-robust approach to construct confidence sets that reveal the uncertainty and aid inference. Empirical studies based on realized volatility and trading volume often fail to statistically reject either model, thereby providing evidence of their potential coexistence.
The Impact Of A Vocational Training ‘Plus’ Programme On Employment And Income, Abu S. Shonchoy, Tomoki Fujii, Selim. Raihan
The Impact Of A Vocational Training ‘Plus’ Programme On Employment And Income, Abu S. Shonchoy, Tomoki Fujii, Selim. Raihan
Research Collection School Of Economics
Following a Randomised Controlled Trial in Northern Bangladesh, this study explores the barriers to rural youth migration to urban employment hubs. By implementing a vocational training “plus” programme facilitating apparel sector employment, the study revealed significant and persistent effects of the programme on income and employment, primarily due to the addition of a stipend and on-the-job training components. Treated participants experienced significant income and remittance increases, alongside reduced income poverty, attributed to the lower job search costs and job–fit risks. Notably, the on-the-job paid apprenticeship offered a benefit–cost ratio of 8.85, demonstrating its cost-effectiveness for programme scalability.
The Motherhood Penalty On Health: Evidence From China, Ang Sun, Fang Xia, Xuan Zhang
The Motherhood Penalty On Health: Evidence From China, Ang Sun, Fang Xia, Xuan Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
Understanding women’s physical and mental well-being following childbirth is critical for informing policies on labor market equity, family support, and fertility. Using event study methods and panel data from China, we document a persistent motherhood penalty in both physical and mental health, whereas the health impacts on fathers are minimal. While mothers experience a temporary reduction in paid work hours, they face a sustained increase in unpaid domestic labor — housework and childcare — resulting in a net increase in total work time. This additional workload likely contributes to deterioration in health. Mothers are also more likely to engage in …
Short-Term Mortality And Healthcare Utilization Consequences Of Pension Income Receipt: Evidence From South Korea, Mimi Jeon, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh
Short-Term Mortality And Healthcare Utilization Consequences Of Pension Income Receipt: Evidence From South Korea, Mimi Jeon, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh
Research Collection School Of Economics
We examine short-term consequences of pension income receipt on mortality and healthcare utilization within the monthly payment cycle. Using the national death registry data of South Korea, we document that the mortality rate decreases by 1.2–1.4 percent in the week of the disbursement date. The mortality-reducing effects are larger for causes of death that could have been avoided through timely and effective healthcare interventions. Using healthcare claims data, we document that the number of hospital admissions increases during the disbursement week. We provide suggestive evidence of greater mortality-reducing effects from a smaller but more frequent disbursement than from a monthly …
Unpacking Singapore's Leasehold Relativity Table: An Empirical And Legal Analysis, Koon Shing Kwong, Jing Rong Goh, Seng Wei, Edward Ti
Unpacking Singapore's Leasehold Relativity Table: An Empirical And Legal Analysis, Koon Shing Kwong, Jing Rong Goh, Seng Wei, Edward Ti
Research Collection School Of Economics
In Singapore, most land is state-owned, with the state generally issuing leasehold estates via state leases of not more than 99 years1, depending on the intended land use. Naturally, the value of a leasehold estate, which erodes over time as the lease approaches the end of its term, is a key component of the premium charged for lease renewals, or the tax imposed for permission given in relation to a development that would increase the value of the land. By law, the state valuation of leasehold land is prescribed by a leasehold relativity table colloquially known as ‘Bala’s Curve’ or …
Product Technology Adoption And Aggregate Innovation, Qiugu He, Xuan Luo, Fan Zheng
Product Technology Adoption And Aggregate Innovation, Qiugu He, Xuan Luo, Fan Zheng
Research Collection School Of Economics
We document that a firm's research and development (R&D) expenditure depends on its product diversity. Combining with the fact that Chinese manufacturers often enter new product markets via technology adoption, we develop a quantitative framework of innovation and technology adoption, allowing firms to expand their product scopes. Firms adopt technologies across multiple fields to expand their knowledge base, which in turn serves as an input for subsequent innovation or adoption. Counterfactual analysis from the 2000s reveals that two-thirds of knowledge privately held by all firms is generated through adoption, accounting for one-third of aggregate innovation.
Speculative Bubbles In The Recent Ai Boom: Nasdaq And The Magnificent Seven, Rerotlhe B. Basele, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi
Speculative Bubbles In The Recent Ai Boom: Nasdaq And The Magnificent Seven, Rerotlhe B. Basele, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi
Research Collection School Of Economics
The recent artificial intelligence (AI) boom covers a period of rapid innovation and wide adoption of AI intelligence technologies across diverse industries. These developments have fueled an unprecedented frenzy in the Nasdaq, with AI-focused companies experiencing soaring stock prices that raise concerns about speculative bubbles and real-economy consequences. Against this background, this study investigates the formation of speculative bubbles in the Nasdaq stock market with a specific focus on the so-called Magnificent Seven (Mag-7) individual stocks during the AI boom, spanning the period from January 2017 to January 2025. We apply the real-time PSY bubble detection methodology of Phillips et …
A General Test For Functional Inequalities, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao, Wenyu Zhou
A General Test For Functional Inequalities, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao, Wenyu Zhou
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper develops a nonparametric test for general functional inequalities that include conditional moment inequalities as a special case. It is shown that the test controls size uniformly over a large class of distributions for observed data, importantly allowing for general forms of time series dependence. New results on uniform growing dimensional Gaussian coupling for general mixingale processes are developed for this purpose, which readily accommodate most applications in economics and finance. The proposed method is applied in a portfolio evaluation context to test for “all-weather” portfolios with uniformly superior conditional Sharpe ratio functions.
Max-Share Misidentification, Liyu Dou, Paul Ho, Thomas Lubik
Max-Share Misidentification, Liyu Dou, Paul Ho, Thomas Lubik
Research Collection School Of Economics
While max-share identiffcation has become increasingly popular in a wide range of applications, we show that its validity requires necessary and suffffcient conditions that are rarely satisffed in practice—the target variable’s response to the target shock must be (i) orthogonal to its responses to untargeted shocks and (ii) larger than combinations of those responses. Imposing additional restrictions on the target shock weakens but does not fully eliminate these conditions. We show that in practice, the weight max-share places on an identiffed untargeted shock can be obtained by projecting the response to that shock on the max-share response. We also theoretically …
Learning Camp, Language Of Instruction, And Education Outcomes: Evidence From A Field Experiment In Malawi, Hyuncheol Bryant. Kim, Kim
Learning Camp, Language Of Instruction, And Education Outcomes: Evidence From A Field Experiment In Malawi, Hyuncheol Bryant. Kim, Kim
Research Collection School Of Economics
We conducted a randomized experiment to study the impacts of a summer learning camp and the language of instruction on education outcomes. The program, covering social studies and mathematics, provided additional high-quality learning time for 4th and 5th graders in Malawi. The program significantly increased test scores in social studies and mathematics (0.24–0.36 standard deviations). We find suggestive evidence that the impact on test scores in social studies was greater for students instructed in Chichewa, the local language, than for those instructed in English. However, we find no such evidence of differential impacts on test scores in mathematics by the …
Policy Evaluation With Nonlinear Trended Outcomes: Covid-19 Vaccination Rates In The United States, Lynn Bergeland Morgan, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul
Policy Evaluation With Nonlinear Trended Outcomes: Covid-19 Vaccination Rates In The United States, Lynn Bergeland Morgan, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper discusses pitfalls in two way fixed effects (TWFE) regressions when the outcome variables contain nonlinear and possibly stochastic trend components. If a policy change shifts trend paths of outcome variables, TWFE estimation can distort results and invalidate inference, especially in a context of evolving policy decisions. A robust solution is proposed by allowing for dynamic club membership empirically using a relative convergence test procedure. The determinants of respective club memberships are assessed by panel ordered logit regressions. The approach allows for policy evolution and shifts in outcomes according to a convergence cluster framework with transitions over time and …
Bridging Generations: Intergenerational Transfers And Time Use In A Changing World, Christine Ho
Bridging Generations: Intergenerational Transfers And Time Use In A Changing World, Christine Ho
Research Collection School Of Economics
This Special Issue brings together nine papers that examine how families allocate time and money across generations. Spanning aging societies in East Asia to informal settlements in the Pacific, the contributions employ diverse methodological approaches, from natural experiments and policy variation to administrative data linkage and cross-generational panel surveys. The findings converge on a central insight: intergenerational transfers of time and money are not merely cultural practices, but systematic responses to changing economic environments and institutional frameworks. Family decisions are critical to the provision of long-term care, investment in children’s human capital, and the transmission of preferences, opportunities, and well-being …
Is R&D Rivalry Slowing The Growth Of Productive Firms?, Yoshiki Ando, James Bessen, Xiupeng Wang
Is R&D Rivalry Slowing The Growth Of Productive Firms?, Yoshiki Ando, James Bessen, Xiupeng Wang
Research Collection School Of Economics
The reallocation of jobs to more productive firms is a substantial component of aggregate productivity growth, yet job reallocation rates have declined substantially in the United States. This paper explores the hypothesis that greater technological rivalry has exacerbated adjustment costs, slowing reallocation. Using microdata at the US Census and estimates of technological rivalry in firm growth regressions, we find that technological rivalry slows firm responses to productivity shocks. Firms do not expand as rapidly in the face of higher obsolescence risk. Estimating counterfactual firm growth from 1997-2018, we find that growing technological rivalry accounts for most of the decline in …
Do Search Costs Explain Persistent Investment In Active Mutual Funds?, Aljoscha Janssen, Jurre Thiel
Do Search Costs Explain Persistent Investment In Active Mutual Funds?, Aljoscha Janssen, Jurre Thiel
Research Collection School Of Economics
Active funds, though losing market share since the 1990s, make up nearly half of all mutual funds but charge more without better performance. We analyze fund data and a search model, highlighting the impact of search costs and active fund preferences. From 1993 to 2018, reduced search costs expanded the market and heightened competition, while a preference shift from active to passive funds increased the latter's market share. However, investors who choose active funds, facing higher search costs, and continue to show a strong preference for them, allow these funds to keep charging higher fees.
One-Sided Limited Commitment And Aggregate Risk, Yoshiki Ando, Dirk Krueger, Harald Uhlig
One-Sided Limited Commitment And Aggregate Risk, Yoshiki Ando, Dirk Krueger, Harald Uhlig
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper we study the neoclassical growth model with idiosyncratic income risk and aggregate risk in which risk sharing is endogenously constrained by one sided limited commitment. Households can trade a full set of contingent claims that pay off depending on both idiosyncratic and aggregate risk, but limited commitment rules out that households sell these assets short. The model results, under suitable restrictions of the parameters of the model, in partial consumption insurance in equilibrium. With log-utility and idiosyncratic income shocks taking two values one of which is zero (e.g., employment and unemployment) we show that the equilibrium can …
The Rising Returns To R&D: Ideas Are Not Getting Harder To Find, Yoshiki Ando, James Bessen, Xiupeng Wang
The Rising Returns To R&D: Ideas Are Not Getting Harder To Find, Yoshiki Ando, James Bessen, Xiupeng Wang
Research Collection School Of Economics
R&D has grown robustly, yet aggregate productivity growth has stagnated. Is this because “ideas are getting harder to find”? Using microdata from the US Census Bureau this paper estimates R&D effectiveness in the manufacturing sector from 1976 to 2018. We find that the marginal effect of R&D on output and the gross marginal returns to R&D have risen sharply. But rivals’ R&D has also gotten more effective, raising expected obsolescence. But firm productivity growth rises with growth in the R&D stock. Higher obsolescence slows the accumulation of R&D capital, reducing the contribution to productivity growth and shortening innovation lives.
Undominated Mechanisms, Tilman Borgers, Jiangtao Li, Kexin Wang
Undominated Mechanisms, Tilman Borgers, Jiangtao Li, Kexin Wang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study the design of mechanisms when the designer faces multiple plausible scenarios and is uncertain about the true scenario. A mechanism is dominated by another if the latter performs at least as well in all plausible scenarios and strictly better in at least one. A mechanism is undominated if no other feasible mechanism dominates it. We show how analyzing undominated mechanisms could be useful and illustrate the tractability of characterizing such mechanisms. This approach provides an alternative criterion for mechanism design under non-Bayesian uncertainty, complementing existing methods.