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Articles 241 - 270 of 386
Full-Text Articles in Economics
Momentum Investing: The Case Of High-Tech Ipos, Sanjiv Jaggia, Satish Thosar
Momentum Investing: The Case Of High-Tech Ipos, Sanjiv Jaggia, Satish Thosar
Economics
We document significant momentum effects in the high-tech IPO aftermarket beyond the initial (underpricing) run-up. Cumulative market-adjusted returns (CMARs) reveal a striking pattern. A local peak of just over 10 percent is reached around 20 trading days post-IPO coinciding with the expiry of the “quiet period”. A global peak (of about 33 percent) is reached after 105 trading days. The CMAR decays fairly rapidly thereafter possibly in anticipation of the expiry of the six-month lockup period. Further, we find strong evidence of a linkage between technical ex-ante observable variables and the momentum build-up. We conjecture that visceral factors may at …
Mean Reversion And The Asset Allocation Decisions, Sanjiv Jaggia, Satish Thosar
Mean Reversion And The Asset Allocation Decisions, Sanjiv Jaggia, Satish Thosar
Economics
Until fairly recently the conventional wisdom in the finance academic community was that security prices follow a random walk. Some influential papers have uncovered evidence of mean reversion particularly over longer horizons. Siegel (1998) has suggested that given this evidence: "the holding period becomes a crucial issue when the data reveal the mean reversion of the stock returns." In this paper, we explore the pattern of mean reversion in post-World War ll U.S. stock returns and find that it peaks in a 4-year cycle. Given this empirical regularity we show that a buy-and-hold investment strategy, which is appropriate under a …
Counterfactual Reasoning And Common Knowledge Of Rationality In Normal Form Games, Eduardo Zambrano
Counterfactual Reasoning And Common Knowledge Of Rationality In Normal Form Games, Eduardo Zambrano
Economics
When evaluating the rationality of a player in a game one has to examine counterfactuals such as "what would happen if the player were to do what he does not do?" In this paper I develop a model of a normal form game where counterfactuals of this sort are evaluated as in the philosophical literature (cf. Lewis, 1973; Stalnaker, 1968). According to this method one evaluates a statement like ``what would the player believe if he were to do what he does not do'' at the world that is closest to the actual world where the hypothetical deviation occurs. I …
The Transition From Dirty To Clean Industries: Optimal Fiscal Policy And The Environmental Kuznets Curve, Steven P. Cassou, Stephen F. Hamilton
The Transition From Dirty To Clean Industries: Optimal Fiscal Policy And The Environmental Kuznets Curve, Steven P. Cassou, Stephen F. Hamilton
Economics
This paper investigates privately and socially optimal patterns of economic development in a two-sector endogenous growth model with clean and dirty goods. We consider a second-best fiscal policy framework in which distortionary taxes jointly influence economic growth and environmental quality. In this policy setting, three conditions produce an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC): (i) dirty output is bounded; (ii) clean output grows endogenously; and (iii) growth in the dirty sector reduces growth in the clean sector. These conditions do not arise with a consumption externality, but can emerge with a production externality. Endogenous labor supply implications are also investigated. Although not …
On The Evolution Of Comparative Advantage In Matching Models, Eric O'N. Fisher, Vikas Kakkar
On The Evolution Of Comparative Advantage In Matching Models, Eric O'N. Fisher, Vikas Kakkar
Economics
This paper examines whether comparative advantage is the long-run outcome of an evolutionary process in the open economy. It formalizes the notion that natural selection eliminates inefficient firms and thus leads to stable and perhaps efficient patterns of world trade. Instead of assuming the existence of a Walrasian auctioneer, we study two simple matching processes that coordinate trade between firms. Our central result is that specialization according to comparative advantage, with the larger country possibly incompletely specialized, is the unique evolutionarily stable state of the world economy.
Tobacco Control Programs And Tobacco Consumption, Michael L. Marlow
Tobacco Control Programs And Tobacco Consumption, Michael L. Marlow
Economics
No Abstract
Why Are We Losing Manufacturing Jobs?, Eric O'N. Fisher
Why Are We Losing Manufacturing Jobs?, Eric O'N. Fisher
Economics
In the last 50 years, the share of employment in manufacturing has declined in the United States. The main reason for this phenomenon is labor-saving technological progress. Variation among state tax polices and international economic conditions have played only minor roles. The source of future prosperity will be technological advances in a service-oriented economy.
The Private Market For Accommodation: Determinants Of Smoking Policies In Restaurants And Bars, John Dunham, Michael L. Marlow
The Private Market For Accommodation: Determinants Of Smoking Policies In Restaurants And Bars, John Dunham, Michael L. Marlow
Economics
No abstract provided.
The Interplay Between Analytics And Computation In The Study Of Congestion Externalities: The Case Of The El Farol Problem, Eduardo Zambrano
The Interplay Between Analytics And Computation In The Study Of Congestion Externalities: The Case Of The El Farol Problem, Eduardo Zambrano
Economics
In this paper I study the El Farol problem, a deterministic, boundedly rational, multi-agent model of a resource subject to congestion externalities that was initially studied computationally by Arthur (1994). I represent the interaction as a game, compute the set of Nash equilibria in mixed strategies of this game, and show analytically how the method of inductive inference employed by the agents in Arthur’s computer simulation leads the empirical distribution of aggregate attendance to be like those in the set of Nash equilibria of the game. This set contains only completely mixed strategy profiles, which explains why aggregate attendance appears …
The Medium-Term Aftermarket In High-Tech Ipos: Patterns And Implications, Sanjiv Jaggia, Satish Thosar
The Medium-Term Aftermarket In High-Tech Ipos: Patterns And Implications, Sanjiv Jaggia, Satish Thosar
Economics
A number of theoretical models, loosely characterized under the rubric of behavioral finance, suggest that price convergence to value is far from instantaneous and possibly involves interplay between noise and informed traders. These models are motivated by documented anomalous patterns in equity markets and assume some form of psychological bias that affects investor behavior. With the benefit of hindsight it seems clear that the technology sector went through a bubble-like pattern in the late 1990s and that investor biases (if indeed they exist and can be inferred) may have been even more pronounced. Accordingly, our study focuses on the medium-term …
Vertical Structure And Strategic Environmental Trade Policy, Stephen F. Hamilton, Till Requate
Vertical Structure And Strategic Environmental Trade Policy, Stephen F. Hamilton, Till Requate
Economics
The idea that environmental trade policy can be used to achieve competitive advantage in international markets has important implications for the way we conceive free trade. This paper considers strategic environmental policy in a model that makes explicit the vertical structure that supports production of the traded good. Including intranational vertical relationships in the analysis of strategic environmental trade policy has substantial qualitative effects. When vertical contracts are allowed, the optimal policy to levy on a polluting input under both quantity and price competition in the international market is the Pigouvian tax.
Dynamic Trade Creation, Eric O'N. Fisher, Neil Vousden
Dynamic Trade Creation, Eric O'N. Fisher, Neil Vousden
Economics
No abstract provided.
The Cost Of Getting Books Read In Rural Africa: Estimates From A Survey Of Library Use In Burkina Faso, Michael Kevane
The Cost Of Getting Books Read In Rural Africa: Estimates From A Survey Of Library Use In Burkina Faso, Michael Kevane
Economics
Dim Delobsom was one of the first indigenous colonial bureaucrats in the French administration of Upper Volta. Born in 1897, he rapidly rose through the ranks of colonial administration, becoming a high-level functionary. He also served as the resident anthropologist of the dominant Mossi tribe of Upper Volta, and published numerous books and articles on Mossi customs. Delobsom fell afoul of an important faction of the colonial apparatus, however, when he decided to assume the chieftaincy of his natal village upon his father's death. Colonial officials and French Catholic priests thought he would be compromised as a bureaucrat-chief, and sought …
The Economic Incidence Of Smoking Laws, John Dunham, Michael L. Marlow
The Economic Incidence Of Smoking Laws, John Dunham, Michael L. Marlow
Economics
Although laws restricting smoking in restaurants are becoming commonplace, most research has focused on either the health benefits that laws may provide customers and workers or whether laws harm owners. But while smoking laws may directly alter profits, owners may alter prices, output, and other business attributes in ways that affect the welfare of customers and workers. This study examines whether restaurant and bar owners alter prices, entertainment, hours of operation and other business attributes in response to local smoking laws. Substantial support is found for these attribute changes in the Wisconsin hospitality industry. One implication is that an overall …
Slotting Allowances As A Facilitating Practice By Food Processors In Wholesale Grocery Markets: Profitability And Welfare Effects, Stephen F. Hamilton
Slotting Allowances As A Facilitating Practice By Food Processors In Wholesale Grocery Markets: Profitability And Welfare Effects, Stephen F. Hamilton
Economics
Slotting allowances, which are lump-sum transfers paid by food manufacturers to grocery retailers in return for various retail concessions, are becoming increasingly common in wholesale grocery markets. This article extends the literature on slotting allowances by considering two features that previously have been ignored: the role of food processors in determining these pricing arrangements, and the effect of slotting allowances on the size and distribution of economic surplus. Slotting allowances motivated by food processors increase procurement quantities and farm prices, and this raises farm surplus, increases total producer surplus, and improves consumer welfare in the food system.
Funded Pensions, Labor Market Participation, And Economic Growth, Mark A. Roberts, Eric O'N. Fisher
Funded Pensions, Labor Market Participation, And Economic Growth, Mark A. Roberts, Eric O'N. Fisher
Economics
This paper analyses a model of overlapping generations in which agents who do not participate in the labor market are unable to borrow. Thus an increase in a fully funded pension raises aggregate savings even with a fixed participation rate since private savings are not crowded out one-for-one. When labor force participation is determined endogenously, a rise in the level of fully funded pensions increases the aggregate labor supply. This in turn increases aggregate savings and growth, directly by raising per capita savings and indirectly through tax and interest rate effects.
The Most Technologically Progressive Decade Of The Century, Alexander J. Field
The Most Technologically Progressive Decade Of The Century, Alexander J. Field
Economics
Because of the Depression’s place in both the popular and academic imagination, and the repeated and justifiable emphasis on output that was not produced, income that was not earned, and expenditure that did not take place, it will seem startling to propose the following hypothesis: the years 1929–1941 were, in the aggregate, the most technologically progressive of any comparable period in U.S. economic history.1 The hypothesis entails two primary claims: that during this period businesses and government contractors implemented or adopted on a more widespread basis a wide range of new technologies and practices, resulting in the highest rate of …
Why Isn't There More Financial Intermediation In Developing Countries?, Michael Kevane, Jonathon Conning
Why Isn't There More Financial Intermediation In Developing Countries?, Michael Kevane, Jonathon Conning
Economics
This paper proposes to organize thinking about the opportunities for improving and extending financial markets and safety nets for the poor, by focusing on factors that may explain why the linkage of local financial networks and safety nets with the larger economy often fails or is incomplete. Understanding the nature of these impediments is the first step in proposing policies to help promote more effective linkage and intermediation. We propose four explanations for the slowness of adoption of intermediation (high costs of delegated monitoring aggravated by limited intermediary capital; lock-in and crowding out effects from local insurance arrangements, social norms …
Comment On Bergstrom, Alexander J. Field
Comment On Bergstrom, Alexander J. Field
Economics
This comment on a 2002 article by Theodore Bergstrom in the Journal of Economic Perspectives argues that group or multilevel selection in haystack models does not require assortative mating. If the various subgroups into which the population periodically divides are sufficiently small, random variation will assure that some groups have more altruists than others, and these groups will have more surviving offspring than others. Under conditions in which the subgroups are periodically repooled into a larger population, it is possible for altruists to increase over time in the general population even though they are declining (or not increasing) at all …
Public Goods And The Value Of Product Quality Regulations: The Case Of Food Safety, Stephen F. Hamilton, David L. Sunding, David Zilberman
Public Goods And The Value Of Product Quality Regulations: The Case Of Food Safety, Stephen F. Hamilton, David L. Sunding, David Zilberman
Economics
The paper examines preferences for product quality regulations. Our premise is that preferences for product quality regulations derive from preferences for both private and public goods. The model is used to explain public attitudes toward a referendum measure to eliminate pesticide residues on food. Results from a survey of consumers are consistent with the conceptual model and show that preferences for public goods influence support for the product quality regulation. The results help explain why consumption behavior is a poor predictor of political behavior, and have implications for methods that use voting and market behavior to value public goods.
Economics, Biology, And Culture: Hodgson On History, Alexander J. Field
Economics, Biology, And Culture: Hodgson On History, Alexander J. Field
Economics
This book addresses what the author claims, with considerable justification, to be the foremost challenge confronting the social and behavioral sciences today: the problem of historical specificity. Hodgson poses the question by asking whether we need different theories to understand social and economic behavior in different societies at different stages of their development. He answers the question in the affirmative, and criticizes the economics profession for suggesting that there is one universal model or theory equally suited to all economies and societies at all times. He faults the profession further for no longer worrying much or conducting serious debate about …
Land Ordinances, Alexander J. Field
Land Ordinances, Alexander J. Field
Economics
As European influence extended across the oceans, all regions of recent settlement faced the challenge of devising means for distributing, by sale, lease, or grant, lands originally held or used by aboriginal populations, and at the same time defining the political relationship between the frontier and the existing states. One of the most sweeping instances of legislation addressing this issue took place in the early years of the United States where, in exchange for the cession of claims on western lands by the original thirteen states, the federal government under the Articles of Confederation agreed to convert the public domain …
Improving Design And Performance Of Group Lending: Suggestions From Burkina Faso, Michael Kevane, Barbara Mknelly
Improving Design And Performance Of Group Lending: Suggestions From Burkina Faso, Michael Kevane, Barbara Mknelly
Economics
We summarize lessons learned by a credit program for women in Burkina Faso. Three observations are made regarding program design: 1) high membership turnover means mutual guarantee groups should be smaller and more central to non-repayment penalties; 2) high turnover in economic activities implies more training in best practices and more variety and experimentation in credit and savings mechanisms; and 3) high degrees of stocking activity suggests the need to develop instruments to mitigate commodity price risk at the individual and program level. Three observations are made regarding program implementation: 1) be more consistent in the treatment of debts of …
Are Investments In Daughters Lower When Daughters Move Away? Evidence From Indonesia, Michael Kevane, David Levine
Are Investments In Daughters Lower When Daughters Move Away? Evidence From Indonesia, Michael Kevane, David Levine
Economics
In much of the developing world daughters receive lower education and other investments than do their brothers, and may even be so devalued as to suffer differential mortality. Daughter disadvantage may be due in part to social norms that prescribe that daughters move away from their natal family upon marriage, a practice known as virilocality. We evaluate the effects of virilocality on female disadvantage using data from the Indonesia Family Life Survey. We find little support for the hypothesis. There is no evidence that the overall pattern of rough equality in the treatment of boys and girls in Indonesia masks …
An Empirical Test Of The Rent-Shifting Hypothesis: The Case Of State Trading Enterprises, Stephen F. Hamilton, Kyle W. Stiegert
An Empirical Test Of The Rent-Shifting Hypothesis: The Case Of State Trading Enterprises, Stephen F. Hamilton, Kyle W. Stiegert
Economics
A central result in the theoretical literature on strategic trade is the ‘rent-shifting hypothesis’, the idea that government’s can employ trade policy as a precommitment device to transfer profit from foreign to domestic firms. To our knowledge, however, the rent-shifting hypothesis remains untested empirically. This paper constructs a theory-based empirical test of rent-shifting behavior that relies on observations of government precommitment variables employed through State Trading Enterprises (STEs). The analysis applies data on the delayed producer payment structure of the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) and examines its merits as a rent-shifting mechanism in the international durum market. The model fails …
The Efficient Mix Of Staffing Resources, Michael L. Marlow
Economic Geography, Trade, And War, David H. Bearce, Eric O'N. Fisher
Economic Geography, Trade, And War, David H. Bearce, Eric O'N. Fisher
Economics
An agent-based model in which economic exchange and military conflict are emergent processes is used to explore the relationship between trade and war. The model of exchange is an applied analysis of the economics of trading networks. The model of conflict treats war as a breakdown in interstate bargaining due to incomplete information. The simulations explore how initial economic geography, state revisionism, defensive advantage, and technological advancement akin to globalization affect both trade and war. The results show that the relationship between trade and war depends on third factors, and an inverse relationship between trade and war emerges from compact …
Strategic Environmental Policy And International Trade In Asymmetric Oligopoly Markets, Yann Duval, Stephen F. Hamilton
Strategic Environmental Policy And International Trade In Asymmetric Oligopoly Markets, Yann Duval, Stephen F. Hamilton
Economics
This paper examines optimal cooperative and non-cooperative environmental taxes for the case in which a polluting input is used to produce an internationally-traded finished product. The model allows for terms-of-trade effects under oligopoly and employs a general specification of the environmental damage function that encompasses special cases of local, global, and transboundary externalities. The model has several implications for public finance. For example, inefficiently high environmental taxes may be optimal for a net exporting country in non-cooperative circumstances, as the motive to shift rent by selecting an inefficiently low tax rate is countervailed by the incentive to shift the burden …
Community-Based Targeting Mechanisms For Social Safety Nets: A Critical Review, Jonathan H. Conning, Michael Kevane
Community-Based Targeting Mechanisms For Social Safety Nets: A Critical Review, Jonathan H. Conning, Michael Kevane
Economics
This paper interprets case studies and theory on community involvement in beneficiary selection and benefit delivery for social safety nets. Several considerations should be carefully balanced in assessing the advantages of using community groups as targeting agents. First, gains from utilizing local information and social capital may be eroded by costly rent-seeking. Second, the potential improvement in targeting criteria from incorporating local notions of deprivation must be tempered by the possibility of program capture by local elites, and by the possibility that local preferences are not pro-poor. Third, intended outcomes may be undermined by unforeseen strategic targeting by local communities …
Comment On: "Do Sunspots Matter When Spot Market Equilibria Are Unique?", Richard C. Barnett, Eric O'N. Fisher
Comment On: "Do Sunspots Matter When Spot Market Equilibria Are Unique?", Richard C. Barnett, Eric O'N. Fisher
Economics
No abstract provided.