Economics Commons^™

The Gender Gap In Immigrant Entrepreneurship: The Role Of Culture And Home Country Self-Employment, Amy Ingram

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates the effect of culture and home country self-employment rates on immigrant self-employment in the United States, post-migration. This study analyzes the effects for both men and women, focusing on the gender gap in self-employment. The empirical results show that home country effects have a small impact on self-employment, but most of this relationship is unexplained. Because the explanatory power of home country effects is so low, it is unlikely that culture significantly influences self-employment. I find that, contrary to my hypotheses, women from countries with high female self-employment rates are likely to see a larger decrease in …

Revenue Incentives And Referee Propensity To Make Foul Calls In The Nba Finals, Daniel Fallon-Cyr

CMC Senior Theses

In this study I examine foul calls by NBA referees alongside the difference in aggressiveness of twelve NBA basketball teams as they compete for the Championship Title. I aim to identify referee biases that increase the likelihood of the NBA Finals ending in a later game due to league revenue incentives. My data consists of 91 individual NBA Finals games played between the 2001 and 2016 NBA Finals. After controlling for changes in play as well as the difference in aggressiveness, I find that NBA referee’s foul calls are more dependent on a call on the opposing team in situations …

Is Silence The Answer?, Gator Adams

CMC Senior Theses

This study examines the relationship between company management guidance, and ex-ante crash risk over the duration of 2008(Jan 2006-Dec 2009) financial crisis using the implied volatility skew, which is based upon ex-ante volatility implied by the pricing model developed by Black-Scholes (1973). The study finds that over the duration of this crisis period, management guidance decreases with a rise in ex-ante crash risk. Further, the study provides evidence on the relationship of management guidance and earnings volatility, and how that is affected by a firm's industry product concentration based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) score.

Australian Real Estate Stock Reactions To Firb Regulation Changes, Henry Wei

CMC Senior Theses

This study analyzes the share price reactions to real estate development and building/construction materials corporations in relation to FIRB rule changes. It appears companies as a whole were indifferent to the rule changes; however individual securities returns were wildly different. These findings suggest that the FIRB rule changes had a mixed effect on different corporations possibly based on their exposure to the Australian real estate market.

Salary Inequality In The Nba: Changing Returns To Skill Or Wider Skill Distributions?, Jonah F. Breslow

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I examine trends in salary inequality from the 1985-86 NBA season to the 2015-16 NBA season. Income and wealth inequality have been extremely important issues recently, which motivated me to analyze inequality in the NBA. I investigated if salary inequality trends in the NBA can be explained by either returns to skill or widening skill distributions. I used Pareto exponents to measure inequality levels and tested to see if the levels changed over the sample. Then, I estimated league-wide returns to skill. I found that returns to skill have not significantly changed, but variance in skill has …

The “Modi Effect”: Investigating The Effect Of Demonetization On Currency Demand And The Size Of The Underground Economy In India, Sanjana Sankaran

CMC Senior Theses

Demonetization is an economic tool used to reduce the size of an underground economy. Though studies on the effectiveness of demonetization have increased over the past 50 years, there is little literature on the ineffectiveness of demonetization and subsequent factors that could explain a lack of change, or an increase, in illegal activity. This paper examines past cases of demonetization to determine the effectiveness of demonetization, and investigates the incentive for foreign currency substitution as a mechanism for criminals to circumvent regulatory scrutiny. Major findings of this paper include a positive but statistically insignificant correlation between demonetization and growth in …

A Problematic Business Model: The Effect Of Private Prisons On Arrests, Claire Donnelly

CMC Senior Theses

Past work related to the private prison system has focused on direct comparisons between private and public facilities, including their respective quality, cost-effectiveness, and influence on recidivism. Using 2005 United States data compiled from a prison facility census, county census, and information on number of arrests by county, I examine the effect that the presence of private prisons has on the number of adult male arrests per county. Across four regression models, I initially find a significant effect of private prisons on arrests, but find that effect becomes insignificant once county and prison controls are accounted for. This suggests that …

A Deep Dive Into Technological Unemployment: A State-Level Analysis On The Employment Effect Of Technological Innovations, Yuqing "Jenny" Cang

CMC Senior Theses

Ever since the first Industrial Revolution, during which many textile artisans lost their jobs to weaving machines, the relationship between technological progress and unemployment has been explored and examined by researchers and policy makers. Existing empirical research, mostly at the microeconomic level, has presented ambiguous results. Procuring data on 51 U.S. states for a period of 19 years and a large number of controls, this paper studies the employment effect of technological innovations with a novel state-level macroeconomic analysis. Using commercially-supplied Research and Development expenditure as a proxy, this paper finds that although technological innovations have a non-significant effect on …

The Fear Factor: Determinants Of Entrepreneurial Fear Of Failure, Pema Donyo

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis aims to investigate determinants of fear of failure in entrepreneurial activity that could inhibit starting a business. The study uses cross-sectional, pooled OLS, and panel regressions. The dependent variable is fear of failure regarding entrepreneurship, measured with the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) survey question of whether fear of failure would prevent the responder from starting a firm. The unit of analysis is at country level. I categorize determinants into demographic, property rights, and procedural variables. A population of higher working age ratio (measured as the population aged 15-64 divided by the population aged 65 and over) correlates with …

The Potential And Limits Of Extended Producer Responsibility: A Comparative Analysis Study, Jessica Bass

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis draws on the concept of product stewardship and its focus on incorporating all of the actors in a product’s lifecycle into steps to take responsibility for waste management. Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) recognizes the producer’s distinct potential to consider and drive change in waste management. Producers often serve like mediators between the design and use phases of a product’s lifecycle. Through EPR policies, the producer takes on the costs of ensuring safe end-of-life waste disposal. In this way, EPR can be expected to help relieve the public of some of the costs of waste disposal, and to support …

The Relative Impact Of The Ged On Labor Market Outcomes For The Formerly Incarcerated, Sally Vandenberg

CMC Senior Theses

This paper shows that while incarceration is associated with economic losses, the economic benefits associated with a GED may be nearly twice as large for high school dropouts that have been incarcerated than for dropouts who have not been incarcerated. My results, though imprecisely estimated, suggest that this relationship may be one of correlation, rather than causality. I find that among the formerly incarcerated the GED is associated with other positive outcomes, particularly lower rates of drug use.

Sustainable Mining For Long Term Poverty Alleviation In The Democratic Republic Of The Congo, Ellen Perfect

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis explores the poverty alleviation and peace-spoiling power of the mineral extraction sector in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to arrive at a set of strategic goals for the country moving forward. Although subterranean minerals are often a source or perpetuator of violence, the potential to lift the country’s rural communities out of extreme poverty makes the mining industry an essential part of the nation’s development strategies. Lessons from Tanzania, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Ghana, Zambia, Uganda and Sierra Leone to arrive at best practices for increasing the multiplier effect of large-scale mining, formalization, beneficiation, capital …

Virtual Reality: The Game Changer For Residential Real Estate Staging Through Increased Presence, Alexander Julian Brenner

CMC Senior Theses

This study proposes a series of 3 experiments to explore how different types of staging, pictures versus virtual reality, impacts potential buyers’ likelihood of wanting to visit a home. Moreover, this study seeks to address how the type of market, hot versus cold, and type of home, luxury versus non-luxury, connects with staging and its impact on wanting to visit a home. In Experiment 1, participants will view 10 total homes, 5 randomly selected with staged pictures first followed by the remaining 5 with virtual reality, either within the hot or cold market. If VR increases presence, then people should …

Don’T Worry, College Doesn’T Make You Successful In The Nba, Cameron E. Van

CMC Senior Theses

This paper explores the value of attending college to Division I National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) basketball players in terms of future success in the NBA. Future success is measured by both salary and minutes played per game. A dataset of 660 athletes from the 2006 through 2016 drafts was collected from Basketball-Reference. An empirical model is estimated using this data in order to identify the determinant factors in a player’s success in the NBA. It is found that college is not a determinant of success in the NBA.

Does Fundamental Analysis Lead To A Rudimentary Momentum Strategy For The Inexperienced Investor? Evidence From A Student Investment Fund, Nicholas J. Lillie

CMC Senior Theses

Using the Student Investment Fund at Claremont McKenna College as a proxy for inexperienced investors, I demonstrate that inexperienced investors using fundamental analysis produce momentum-like buying patterns. The results show that the Student Investment Fund is on average buying stocks that outperform Carhart’s four-factor asset pricing model in the year before purchase. As a result, the Student Investment Fund has, on average, underperformed the S&P500 by .48% per year since 1996. My thesis explores why the Student Investment Fund may have adopted momentum-like purchasing patterns and what steps can be taken to remedy it.

Restauración De La Diplomacia Y Sus Implicaciones: Los Próximos Pasos En Las Relaciones Entre Los Estados Unidos Y Cuba, Emily Chambard

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis explores the implications of the recent restoration of diplomatic relations between the United States and Cuba. Through historical analysis and discussion of the ‘Cuban Thaw’ beginning in 2009, it proposes certain courses of immediate and long-term action for both nations, but specifically the United States, to guarantee future collaboration and mutual gain. Its conclusions emphasize the unique nature of current circumstances, which have opened a window of opportunity never before seen in the history of US-Cuban relations. The causes are one, the succession of Fidel Castro by his brother, Raúl, who has already demonstrated more progressive policy action …

Compounding The Sacred And The Profane: How Economic Theory Brings New Insight To The Growth And Decline Of American Protestantism, Bretton Chad

CMC Senior Theses

In this thesis, economic theory and models will be used to analyze trends of religious growth and decline within the United States. These theories and models, such as Rational Choice Theory, will be applied in order to better understand and gain new insight into shifts and changes within the religious landscape of the United States. Recent trends of growth and decline within Protestantism, the most prominent Christian tradition in America, will be the focus of the investigation. As its main focus, this thesis will ultimately demonstrate that the trends of decline in the mainline Protestant tradition opposed to the trends …

Adventures At The Zero Lower Bound: A Bayesian Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Analysis Of Monetary Policy Uncertainty Shocks, Rachel M. Doehr

CMC Senior Theses

Using survey-based measures of future interest rate expectations from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we examine the relationship between monetary policy uncertainty, captured as the dispersion of interest rate forecasts, and fluctuations in real economic activity and core inflation. We use a flexible time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model to clearly isolate the dynamic effects of shocks to monetary policy uncertainty. To further study possible a possible nonlinear relationship between monetary policy uncertainty and the macroeconomic aggregates, we extract the impulse-response functions (IRF’s) estimated at each quarter in the time series, and use a …

A Comparative Examination Of International Carbon Trading Mechanisms, Allison Moors

CMC Senior Theses

A Comparative Examination of International Carbon Trading Mechanisms

Peer Misbehavior Effects In The Classroom, Alex Hwung

CMC Senior Theses

This paper seeks to evaluate the effects of peer misbehavior in the classroom on student learning outcomes--namely, if there is any truth behind the old saying that “one bad apple ruins the bunch”. Using experimental data, I show that there is a strong initial relationship between the level of misbehavior in a given classroom and performance on a mathematics evaluation; however, the inclusion of lagged peer achievement in the model causes most of that relationship to be absorbed away, suggesting that the bulk of peer effects stem more from the academic performance of other students than from their behavior.

Proximity To Children: A Geospatial Approach To Understanding The Relationship Between Fast Food And Schools, Andrew Atwong

CMC Senior Theses

In a time when Americans are waking up to the health consequences of consuming fast food, researchers have discovered that fast food restaurants seem to be located in greater concentrations near primary or secondary schools. While this phenomenon affects the food environments of some children and carries implications as to their short term and long term health (which has also been well researched), this paper focuses primarily on fast food restaurants that are within walking distance of schools. Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to integrate geospatial, business, demographic, and food quality data, I use linear regressions to examine whether and …

The Drivers Of Success In The Nfl: Differences In Factors Affecting The Probability Of Winning Based On First Half Performance, Zach Alleva

CMC Senior Theses

This paper explores how changing various end game statistics effects a given teams probability of winning a game in the National Football League (NFL). Data from the 2000-2016 NFL seasons is split into two subsets, one for teams winning at halftime, another for losing teams. Using this data an empirical model is estimated to study how the determinants of a team’s success differ between the two sets of data. Overall, the factors which determine a team’s outcome are consistent between the two subsets, varying primarily by magnitude of the effect.

How Cutting The Cost Of Using A Bank Affects Household’S Behavior Of Remittance Transfers: Evidence From A Field Experiment In Rural Malawi, Chuyuan Lu

CMC Senior Theses

Using a randomized experiment in rural Malawi, this paper finds that providing information on mobile bank buses’ services leads to a higher probability of adopting savings accounts in the treatment group. Households in the treated villages are 3.06 percentage points more likely to adopt savings accounts than households in the control group. Second, the information treatment leads to an increase of in the probability of households receiving remittances in the treated villages, as well as an increase in the amount of remittances received. In particular, the effect is strongest for households that lived at least three kilometers away from the …

An Event Study Analysis Of American Bank Holding Company Equity Returns Upon Basel Iii Announcement, Brian R. Delaney

CMC Senior Theses

This study examines the trading activity of a large cross section of American bank holding companies upon various sub-events associated with the introduction of Basel III. An event study methodology was applied to various sub-composite portfolios, as determined by regulatory capitalization and leverage ratios. The results suggest that statically significant abnormal negative returns occurred on the announcement to negotiate due to heightened regulatory uncertainty, especially amongst the least capitalized and highest leveraged banks. However, this effect is complemented by statically significant positive returns upon the release of the initial guidelines. Reactions to subsequent events report to be less significant.

A Re-Examination Of Rating Shopping And Catering Using Post-Crisis Data On Cdos, Robert H. Owlett

CMC Senior Theses

I re-examine “rating shopping” and “rating catering” in the market for AAA rated collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) by replicating the study of Griffin and Tang (2013) using post-crisis data. I find a sharp increase in the amount of CDOs that received a single rating, suggesting that CDO underwriters were more cautious about formally soliciting multiple ratings. However, I also find a decrease in AAA rating disagreements between S&P and Moody’s, implying that issuers shopped their CDOs through informal conversations with agencies. Finally, I find investors correctly accepted tighter credit spreads for dual-rated CDOs because dual-rated CDOs experienced fewer rating downgrades …

Consumer Neuroscience: A Multi-Disciplinary Approach To Marketing Leveraging Advances In Neuroscience, Psychology And Economics, Bridget E. Blum

CMC Senior Theses

For decades, neuroscience has greatly contributed to our foundational understanding of human behavior. More recently, the findings and methods of neuroscience have been applied to study the process of decision-making in order to offer advanced insights into the neural mechanisms that influence economic and consumer choices. In this thesis, I will address how customized marketing strategies can be enriched through the integration of consumer neuroscience, an integrative field anchored in the biological, cognitive and affective mechanisms of consumer behavior. By recognizing and utilizing these multidisciplinary interdependencies, marketers can enhance their advertising and promotional mix to elicit desired neural and affective …

Decrypting Bitcoin Prices And Adoption Rates Using Google Search, Varun Puri

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I analyze Bitcoin price formation and adoption rates at a global and national level. In determining Bitcoin prices, I consider contemporaneous and lagged values of traditional determinants of currencies, such as inflation and industrial production, and digital currency specific factors, primarily public interest. Using monthly time-series data across five years (2011 – 2016), I find that global public interest in Bitcoin, measured by Google searches for the keyword ‘Bitcoin,’ has a positive and significant impact on Bitcoin prices. I extend the analysis to a country level by employing a proxy for adoption rates, represented by the number …

An Analysis Of Education Reform In Sub-Saharan Africa, Katharine Eger

CMC Senior Theses

Sub-Saharan Africa continues to fall behind other developing regions regarding educational attainment, despite recent progress in enrollment. This thesis examines a variety of external conditional factors that could contribute to a country’s relative success, in terms of years spent in school using a prediction model that compares years enrolled in secondary education as a foundation to determine over- and under-performing countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

By exploring various educational policies, historical patterns, and projects executed in Rwanda, South Africa, Ghana, and Botswana, this thesis sheds light on four main challenges that can impact educational attainment: ethnic and racial tensions, an acute …

Escaping The Poverty Trap: Formal Savings And Asset Accumulation In Rural Malawi, Audrey Breitwieser

CMC Senior Theses

Formal savings accounts can be an effective device for households to accumulate assets over time and thus have more funds available to better afford an expensive one-time payment, in the form of either addressing an economic shock or paying for an important life event. I explore this relationship using a field experiment in rural Malawi conducted from 2008-2010, and find that adoption of a formal savings account has no effect on the frequency of economic shocks that a household experiences, nor does it affect how households respond to shocks. However, I find that account adoption does significantly increase the frequency …

Conditional Cash Transfers And Their Effect On Poverty, Inequality, And School Enrollment: The Case Of Mexico And Latin America, Maria Romano

CMC Senior Theses

Over the past two decades, conditional cash transfer (CCT) has become one of the most widespread approaches to social development in Latin America. Spurred in large part by the evident and immediate success of Mexico’s CCT initiative, a multitude of countries began to invest heavily in this strategy hoping to reduce poverty and inequality in the short and long run. This paper examines the relationship between CCT program breadth and poverty, inequality, and secondary school enrollment over a thirteen year span in order to determine whether or not programs with the largest coverage were the most efficient. This question is …