Economics Commons^™

Private Equity – The Rescue Or Destruction Of Financially Distressed Investments, Alex Wilson

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates the effect PE-backing has on portfolio companies in financial distress. Inspired by the more recent questioning of the morality of the Private Equity industry, this paper analyzes the change in financial health after a PE buyout transaction and directly compares that of financially distressed firms during the same time period that were not PE-backed. This study utilizes a dataset made up of financially distressed, public US firms as of 2009, and assesses the change in Z-score ~10 years after PE investment to determine whether PE-backing has an effect on the change in financial health. The negative coefficient …

Integrating Carbon Pricing Approaches, Amay Shah

CMC Senior Theses

Concerns about global climate change and its effects have been steadily growing around the world in recent years. The Paris Agreement has laid out ambitious targets for countries to cut their emissions in order to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees and to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Carbon pricing mechanisms are an inventive instrument that can help achieve these emissions reductions by placing a price on greenhouse gas emissions, creating incentives for organizations to reduce their emissions. These mechanisms can also help enable the transfers from wealthy nations to developing nations that will be essential for ensuring a …

Impact Of College Extracurricular Involvement On Entrepreneurial Outcomes, Emily Malech

CMC Senior Theses

Despite extensive inquiry, relatively little is understood about the factors which shape entrepreneurs as young adults. This paper examines the impact of college extracurricular involvement on the entrepreneurial outcomes of alumni; it considers which extracurricular activities are most strongly associated with entrepreneurship. Additionally, it explores whether the number of extracurricular activities participated in by students impacts their proclivity for entrepreneurship. It observes 219 alumni of Claremont McKenna College and uses data from the institution’s public records as well as alumni’s LinkedIn profiles. This data contains information on entrepreneurship, indicated by job titles, and five extracurricular activities. Using a probit model …

The Federal Reserve’S Qe Practices Impact On Inflation: A Comparative Analysis Of The Gfc And Covid-Eras, Robert Driscoll

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates and compares the effects of the Fed’s quantitative easing policies on US inflation during the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-era up to February of 2022. As inflation continues to rise, a quantitative measurement of the Fed’s monetary policy response to recessions and its resulting effect on the price level is becoming increasingly relevant. Supporting the quantity monetary theory, I test the impact of the Fed’s increasing their total assets and securities on their balance sheet on CPI and core CPI. Using multiple time series regressions and a single lag component on the analyzed variables. The model …

How A Supply Chain Stumble Changes A Company’S Policies And Progress 20 Years Later: A Case Study Of Gap Inc., Alexandra Futterman

CMC Senior Theses

Gap Inc. is the third-largest American retailer. Founded in 1969, Gap Inc. holds four brands, Gap, Banana Republic, Old Navy and Athleta. In the late 1990s and early 2000s Gap Inc. made headlines for child labor abuses along with many other large brands. After this negative attention, Gap Inc. began developing policies and practices to combat ethical supply chain issues. These policies included a Human Rights Policy, a Code of Vendor Conduct, working conditions standards, and even capacity building programs that boarded company reaches into communities they touch. In conjunction with the policies Gap Inc. has published several social responsibility …

The Lure Of Musical Comfort: An Analysis Of How Consumer Preferences In Popular Music Change Depending On The State Of The U.S. Economy Using Billboard Hot 100, Spotify Api, & Economic Data, Lindsey A. Larson

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines data from Spotify’s Web API for all songs that have been on the Billboard Hot 100 chart from the first chart’s release in August 1958 to May 2021 to determine the relationship between music misery and economic misery. Twelve dependent variables– duration, danceability, energy, key, acousticness, speechiness, mode, loudness, instrumentalness, liveness, valence, and tempo– are used to measure the impact of Arthur Okun’s U.S. economic misery index on each characteristic. Using 12 individual linear regressions– one for each dependent variable– I find that during times of increased economic hardship, consumers are likely to choose to listen to …

Geographic Banking Discrimination In The United States, Simon Ross Gilbert

CMC Senior Theses

Financial institutions in the United States have historically discriminated against Black Americans in a multitude of ways. One potential dynamic of unequal access that remains understudied is geographic in nature. That is, are commercial banks less likely to locate in neighborhoods with more Black people? Using a fixed effects and selection on observables model, I find that a 1 percentage point increase in an area’s Black population is related to a 0.11 decrease in the number of commercial banks in that area. This effect is localized primarily in urban areas, particularly in cities in the Mid-Atlantic, Upper Midwest, and Pacific …

Cross-Cultural Examination Of Vacation Policy On Employee Satisfaction And Happiness, Ketan D. Parekh

CMC Senior Theses

With the advent of technological advancement, entrepreneurship, and a higher emphasis on meritocracy, societies across the globe have experienced intense competition to outdo one another. This has pushed companies to place increased importance on worker productivity; large and small companies want to see their employees work harder, longer, and faster. With this increased demand for work, companies today are making sure they have suitable reward systems to ensure worker satisfaction and quality work production. However, what these reward systems look like and how they function contrast significantly across cultures, especially as it pertains to corporate leave policies. This thesis examines …

Nft-Related Companies: Token Sale Returns, Robert Liu

CMC Senior Theses

Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have emerged as a new means of digital asset ownership and many companies are building projects that revolve around the technology. These companies are blockchain-based and raise capital for their projects through cryptocurrency token sales, which have become a new mechanism of entrepreneurial finance. In a sample of 62 NFT-related companies, I examine which company, fundraising, and token sale process characteristics are associated with the performance of 7-day and 60-day market returns after a token’s public listing. A multivariate regression analysis finds that the total amount of capital raised before a token launch has a negative relationship …

Impact Of School Closures On Female Labor Force Participation In The Covid-19 Pandemic, Shreya Shome

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the role of school closures in reducing the female labor force participation during the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States. While there is significant discussion on the decline of female labor force participation, this paper examines the role of school closures and lack of child care options in determining women’s decisions and ability to work. The data set includes the share school closures at each level of education, the number of schools and students in each school, the regulatory stringency indices, and the number of Covid-19 related deaths in each state on a monthly basis from January …

The Rising Power Of The Individual Investor: How Social Media Sentiments And User Activity Impact Stock Price Volatility And Trading Volume, Nandini Jayaram

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates the relationship between social media sentiments and user activity on the ability of online platforms like Robinhood, Reddit, and Twitter to drive volatility in stock returns and trading volume of shares. The research contributes to the existing literature by studying the potential power of social media communities to influence the stock market parameters. The dataset includes information for several stocks of daily Robinhood users, mentions in r/wallstreetbets, number of Twitter followers, as well as closing price and trading volume data. Using a fixed effects panel data model, the regressions yield statistically significant results that indicate higher WallStreetBets …

Exploring The Generational Evolution Of Black-White Wage Inequality Across Geographic Regions Of The United States, Rachel Scharff-Hansen

CMC Senior Theses

Wages of black men trail those of their white counterparts despite decades of generational socio-political change. This paper examines the extent to which the black-white wage gap has evolved from individuals born in the Baby Boomer (births between 1956 and 1964) to the Millennial (births between 1977 and 1995) generation, an era assumed to reflect great shifts in anti-racist sentiments and opportunities in the late 20^th century. Despite presumed progressive attitudes developed in this time period, I find that the black-white wage differential of the labor market in its whole has worsened from black earnings lagging 28.1% behind white …

The Influence Of Political Party Affiliation And Park Accessibility On Covid-19 Case Incidence, Sascha Wolf-Sorokin

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the joint effect of political party affiliation and the urban landscape, as measured by access to parks, on case rates during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. The 2016 and 2020 U.S. Presidential Election returns are used as a proxy for a county’s political party affiliation prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic. A county population’s spatial relationship to its parks encapsulates the green open space within an urban environment. The data set controls for features of the built environment, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics (race, gender, income, education), COVID-19 government regulations, and presidential election returns. Using …

Economic Propaganda In The United States, Brooklyn Montgomery

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis aims to identify and analyze three different forms of economic propaganda: cultural, structural, and political. I first examine ‘Do What You Love’ culture and its impact on the labor force. Chapter Two explores the propagation of neoliberal economics as an objective study, and the final chapter analyzes the use of Black capitalism as a political mechanism to quell Black radical sentiment. In detailing these phenomenons, I investigate the implementation, normalization, and effects, as well as the material repercussions of these ideas and structures.

Migration And The Quality Of American Cities, Chase Mendell

CMC Senior Theses

Across the United States, cities are expanding. It is the role of the city leaders to promote policies that benefit both current and incoming residents. While these policies have intended results, the realized benefits and damages are challenging to define because they are the result of individual choices and the unique characteristics of the city. As a result, policymakers need to consider a complex web of factors such as employment, taxation, housing, mobility, and environmental quality. This thesis seeks to analyze these overlapping factors to discuss how policymakers can increase well-being while mitigating potential harms.

Disembedded Liberalism: The Global Pressure On Democracy, Hallie Spear

CMC Senior Theses

The international political order is at a crossroads with divergent paths. Liberal democracy is once again threatened on the international stage. What's more troubling is that the most stable and influential democracies, the United States, those in Europe and India, seem to be vulnerable to the autocratic wave sweeping through the world. This thesis completes a critical analysis to understand the root causes of the recent disruption to democracy the world has observed. Focusing on three established, diverse, and populous democracies, this thesis investigates the economic conditions at play that made each nation vulnerable to populism. Neoliberal economic policies implemented …

The Transforming Importance Of Social Skills In The Labor Market In The 2010s, Andrew Bradjan

CMC Senior Theses

The growing importance of social skills has led to an increase in returns to wages and employment for workers specializing in social skill-intensive occupations. Between 2012 and 2019, social skill-intensive occupations grew by 3 percentage points as a share of the U.S. labor force. Math-intensive occupations also grew by a similar amount during this time. To analyze these patterns, I utilize a model of team production where workers trade tasks to exploit their comparative advantage. Social skills reduce coordination costs between workers and allow them to specialize and cooperate with other workers more effectively by trading tasks. This model predicts …

Liquidity Outbreak: A 49 Country Analysis Of The Money Supply’S Effect On Stock Markets During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Dylan Porter

CMC Senior Theses

This paper compares the effects of monthly money growth on monthly stock market performance in 49 countries around the world before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Countries are grouped in aggregate, by continent, and development status. OLS panel regressions show that lagged monetary growth variables are better monetary indicators of stock market performance than contemporaneous values. Variables that measure the pandemic’s progress (infections/deaths and government responses) are included alongside macro-economic variables but are seldom significant. Monetary growth had less correlation with the stock market during the pre-pandemic period (January 2018 - December 2020), suggesting that the uncertain economic conditions of …

Rural Development In Papua New Guinea: Mining, Logging, Agriculture, And Alternatives, Tj Askew

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines multiple approaches to providing rural, indigenous Papuans with improved social services and economic opportunities. Rural Papuans, who make up 80 percent of the population, face below average rates of nutrition, education, disease, crime, and other quality of life indicators. Due to location, land use rights, lack of infrastructure, and minimal access to economic markets, the PNG government has struggled to provide rural communities with basic social services. Historically, the development of resource extraction projects such as mining, logging, and agriculture have been the main strategies used to improve the livelihood of rural Papuans, with limited success. This …

Information Prioritization: A Comparison Between Utility Maximizers And Probability Matchers, Yusuf Ismaeel

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the differences between probability matchers and utility maximizers in their preferences for information sources in a lab environment. In this paper, we consider the best source of information to be the most connected one. We conducted several linear probability model type regressions along with logit regressions. Furthermore, we also attempted to control and fix any potential misclassifications in classifying the cognitive strategy by using instrumental variables. The results show that utility maximizers will almost always choose the most informed node. Probability matchers, on the other hand, do not exhibit such a behavior as the probability matching strategy …

Feature Investigation For Stock Returns Prediction Using Xgboost And Deep Learning Sentiment Classification, Seungho (Samuel) Lee

CMC Senior Theses

This paper attempts to quantify predictive power of social media sentiment and financial data in stock prediction by utilizing a comprehensive set of stock-related fundamental and technical variables and social media sentiments. For conducting sentiment analysis, this study employs a pretrained finBERT model that provides three different sentiment classifications and respective softmax scores. Hence, the significance of these variables is evaluated with XGBoost regression and Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) frameworks. Through investigating feature importance, this study finds that statistical properties of sentiment variables provide a stronger predictive power than a weighted sentiment score and that it is possible to quantify …

A Network Pandemic: Exploring The Effects Of Social Connectedness On The Spread Of Covid-19 In The United States, Mrinalini Bhushan

CMC Senior Theses

Social interactions influence the way we think and act. Recent literature on COVID-19 and social connectedness explores how social interactions influence people’s perceptions of the risk from COVID-19 and their behaviors. This paper seeks to investigate how social connectedness, political ideologies, and physical interaction are associated with local COVID-19 case and death rates at the US county level. Social connectedness, as defined by (Bailey et al, 2018) measures connectedness between US counties based on Facebook friendship links. I examine whether a county’s average social connectedness to other counties, as determined by the Facebook index, has an impact on its own …

Converged Subset Portfolios: An Extension To Subset Optimization, Coleman Cornell

CMC Senior Theses

The limited span of useful data, coupled with increasingly expansive asset universes, cripples the traditional mean-variance problem. When optimizing in these environments, the pronounced effect of estimation error yields extremely unstable portfolios when evaluated out-of-sample. As a proposed solution to the "curse of dimensionality," Gillen (2016) presents subset optimization as a technique to reduce the impact of estimation error. Instead of optimizing jointly over the entire asset universe, subset optimization na\"ively aggregates over many "subset portfolios" that each optimize over a much smaller random sample of assets. Given the inefficiencies when using naive aggregation, converged subset optimization is presented as …

Diversifying Investment Portfolios With Collectible Sneakers: Expected Returns And Benefits Of Diversification, Samuel Soo

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis seeks to identify if collectible sneakers can provide diversification benefits to an investor’s portfolio. Using data from a global collectible sneaker marketplace, StockX, I constructed an index to compare it with other traditional assets, including the S&P 500 index and 5-year US Treasury Bills. By calculating key metrics including expected returns, volatility, and correlation, I analyzed the risk-return characteristics of the collectible sneaker asset class compared to other traditional asset classes. From the data analysis I performed, I found that collectible sneakers did not outperform returns significantly compared to traditional asset classes, but had low correlations, which provides …

The Socioeconomic Impact And Allocative Discrepancies Of Fema Disaster Declarations And Aid, Emma Ranheim

CMC Senior Theses

In my thesis I examine the impact of natural disaster declarations on socioeconomic outcomes. I use counties that requested, but did not receive, a natural disaster declaration as controls for treatment counties that received the requested declaration. I construct a county-by-year panel dataset covering 2005 to 2016. I estimate a difference-in-differences model to estimate socioeconomic outcomes resulting from the disaster declaration decision. I find that receiving a declaration was associated with a 0.8 percentage point poverty reduction in 2010, but no other years or changes in socioeconomic outcomes were causally and significantly established by my model.

Dropping The Ball: A Political And Economic Analysis Of Public Subsidization For Stadium Construction Projects, Max Fisher

CMC Senior Theses

The results generated by this research argue that the high cost of public subsidization does not outweigh the benefits associated with new stadiums. By using several cost-benefit analyses, my research adds to the current literature that these projects, while seemingly beneficial for communities, induces negligible or even negative outcomes. In particular, this study details the Las Vegas Raiders and the New York Yankees, explaining how these teams were able to achieve a new stadium. To understand why politicians continually support stadium construction despite extensive literature showing its harms, this research includes explanations based on the political theory from authors such …

Gambling Autonomy: The Impact Of Latin American Central Bank Independence On Risk Aversion Within Monetary Policy Implementation, Julia Duarte Schulman

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the effect of Latin American central bank independence (CBI) on risk-averse behaviors in monetary policy. Using a fixed effects panel regression, I document how multiple forms of monetary policy are influenced by different macroeconomic variables, conflicting policy targets and central bank independence benchmarks. The results show that increasing CBI has a positive impact on risk aversion, especially in policies targeting inflation and money supply. Additionally, the results show that interest rates and reserve requirements were especially susceptible to changes in independence, while the monetary base and volume of domestic credit were less influenced. Finally, as time and …

‘It’S Like Baking A Cake’: An Analysis Of Conscience Voting In The New Zealand House Of Representatives Since The Introduction Of The Mixed-Member Proportional System In 1996, Harrison Hosking

CMC Senior Theses

Conscience voting in the New Zealand House of Representatives offers a unique opportunity to assess Sam Peltzman’s ‘Principal-Agent Theory’ as outlined in his 1984 paper, Constituent Interest and Congressional Voting.

This thesis begins with a brief assessment of the principal-agent model (and other literature regarding parliamentary representation) before looking at the New Zealand Parliamentary system and the phenomenon of private member’s bills and how they aid the legislative process. This is followed by an exploration of a constructed dataset of conscience votes that have occurred since the inception of the mixed-member proportional (MMP) electoral system in 1996. An analysis …

Zoom In, Class Out: An Event Study On Publicly Traded Ed Tech Firm Valuations During Covid-19, Matiss Ozols

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines how publicly traded Ed Tech firms reacted to negative announcements regarding COVID-19. Using an event study method, I document how an international portfolio of Ed Tech firms react across multiple event windows. The results show that Ed Tech firms reacted positively to the announcement of the first US death and negatively to the World Health Organization’s declaration that COVID-19 was a pandemic. Additionally, differences in geographical location did not impact cumulative abnormal returns across event windows. Finally, firm-specific characteristics such as volatility and financial leverage had little or no significance on stock returns.

An Evaluation Of Knot Placement Strategies For Spline Regression, William Klein

CMC Senior Theses

Regression splines have an established value for producing quality fit at a relatively low-degree polynomial. This paper explores the implications of adopting new methods for knot selection in tandem with established methodology from the current literature. Structural features of generated datasets, as well as residuals collected from sequential iterative models are used to augment the equidistant knot selection process. From analyzing a simulated dataset and an application onto the Racial Animus dataset, I find that a B-spline basis paired with equally-spaced knots remains the best choice when data are evenly distributed, even when structural features of a dataset are known …