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Articles 991 - 1020 of 3476
Full-Text Articles in Economics
The Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy H: The Global Contagion, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
The Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy H: The Global Contagion, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
When Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008, it was the largest such filing in U.S. history and a huge shock to the world’s financial markets, which were already stressed from the deflated housing bubble and questions about subprime mortgages. Lehman was the fourth-largest U.S. investment bank with assets of $639 billion and its operations spread across the globe. Lehman’s clients and counterparties began to disclose millions of dollars of potential losses as they accounted for their exposures. But the impact of Lehman’s demise was felt well beyond its counterparties. Concern regarding its real estate assets, its large …
The Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy G: The Special Case Of Derivatives, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
The Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy G: The Special Case Of Derivatives, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
When it filed for bankruptcy protection in September 2008, Lehman Brothers was an active participant in the derivatives market and was party to 906,000 derivative transactions of all types under 6,120 ISDA Master Agreements with an estimated notional value of $35 trillion. The majority of Lehman’s derivatives were bilateral agreements not traded on an exchange but in the over-the-counter (OTC) market. Because derivatives enjoyed an exemption from the automatic stay provisions of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code, parties to Lehman’s derivatives could seek resolution and self-protection without the guidance and restraint of the bankruptcy court. The rush of counterparties to novate …
The Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy E: The Effects On Lehman’S U.S. Broker-Dealer, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
The Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy E: The Effects On Lehman’S U.S. Broker-Dealer, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
Lehman’s U.S. broker-dealer, Lehman Brothers Inc. (LBI), was excluded from the parent company’s bankruptcy filing on September 15, 2008, because it was thought that the solvent subsidiary might be able to wind down its affairs in a normal fashion. However, the force of the parent’s demise proved too strong, and within days, LBI and dozens of Lehman subsidiaries around the world were also in liquidation. As a regulated broker-dealer, LBI was required to comply with the Securities and Exchange Commission financial-responsibility rules for broker-dealers, including maintaining customer assets separately. However, the corporate complexity and enterprise integration that characterized the Lehman …
The Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy D: The Role Of Ernst & Young, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Rosalind L. Bennett, Andrew Metrick
The Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy D: The Role Of Ernst & Young, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Rosalind L. Bennett, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
For many years prior to its demise, Lehman Brothers employed Ernst & Young (EY) as the firm’s independent auditors to review its financial statements and express an opinion as to whether they fairly represented the company’s financial position. EY was supposed to try to detect fraud, determine whether a matter should be publicly disclosed, and communicate certain issues to Lehman’s Board audit committee. After Lehman filed for bankruptcy, it was discovered that the firm had employed questionable accounting with regard to an unorthodox financing transaction, Repo 105, which it used to make its results appear better than they were. EY …
The Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy C: Managing The Balance Sheet Through The Use Of Repo 105, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
The Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy C: Managing The Balance Sheet Through The Use Of Repo 105, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
The Lehman Brothers court-appointed bankruptcy examiner produced a 2,200-page report detailing possible claims that the estate might pursue. The most surprising revelation of the report was that during its last year Lehman had relied heavily on an unusual financing transaction—Repo 105. The examiner concluded that Lehman’s aggressive use of Repo 105 transactions enabled it to remove up to $50 billion of assets from its balance sheet at quarter-end and to manipulate its leverage ratio so that it could report more favorable results. This case considers in-depth Lehman’s questionable use of Repo 105 transactions and its impact.
The Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy A: Overview, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Thomas Piontek, Andrew Metrick
The Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy A: Overview, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Thomas Piontek, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
On September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc., the fourth-largest U.S. investment bank, sought Chapter 11 protection, initiating the largest bankruptcy proceeding in U.S. history. The demise of the 164-year old firm was a seminal event in the global financial crisis. Under the direction of its long-time Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld, Lehman had been very successful pursuing a high-leverage, high-risk business model that required it to daily raise billions of dollars to fund its operations. Beginning in 2006, Lehman began to invest aggressively in real-estate-related assets and soon had significant exposures to housing and subprime mortgages, just as these …
The Early Phases Of The Financial Crisis: Reflections On The Lender Of Last Resort, Timothy F. Geithner
The Early Phases Of The Financial Crisis: Reflections On The Lender Of Last Resort, Timothy F. Geithner
Journal of Financial Crises
This essay discusses the powers and limitations of the Federal Reserve’s role as Lender of Last Resort and how it deployed those powers during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. It considers the Fed’s authorities and the frameworks that it relied on in utilizing its powers to calm markets in turmoil and to assist specific financial institutions.
Breaking Ties: Regression Discontinuity Design Meets Market Design, Atila Abdulkadiroğlu, Joshua D. Angrist, Yusuke Narita, Parag A. Pathak
Breaking Ties: Regression Discontinuity Design Meets Market Design, Atila Abdulkadiroğlu, Joshua D. Angrist, Yusuke Narita, Parag A. Pathak
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Many schools in large urban districts have more applicants than seats. Centralized school assignment algorithms ration seats at over-subscribed schools using randomly assigned lottery numbers, non-lottery tie-breakers like test scores, or both. The New York City public high school match illustrates the latter, using test scores and other criteria to rank applicants at \screened” schools, combined with lottery tie-breaking at unscreened \lottery” schools. We show how to identify causal effects of school attendance in such settings. Our approach generalizes regression discontinuity methods to allow for multiple treatments and multiple running variables, some of which are randomly assigned. The key to …
The Economics Of Social Data: An Introduction, Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti
The Economics Of Social Data: An Introduction, Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Large internet platforms collect data from individual users in almost every interaction on the internet. Whenever an individual browses a news website, searches for a medical term or for a travel recommendation, or simply checks the weather forecast on an app, that individual generates data. A central feature of the data collected from the individuals is its social aspect. Namely, the data captured from an individual user is not only informative about this specific individual, but also about users in some metric similar to the individual. Thus, the individual data is really social data. The social nature of the data …
Global Unanimity Equilibrium On The Carbon Budget, Humberto Llavador, John E. Roemer
Global Unanimity Equilibrium On The Carbon Budget, Humberto Llavador, John E. Roemer
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Carbon budgets are a useful way to frame the climate mitigation challenge and much easier to agree upon than the allocation of emissions. We propose a mechanism with countries agreeing on the global carbon budget, while the decision to emit is decentralized at the country level. The revenue is collected in a global fund and allocated according to endogenously defined weights proportional to the marginal cost of climate change. The proposal features a unanimous agreement of the national citizenries of the world and global Pareto efficiency. We run a simulation in the spirit of the Paris Agreement, with zero emissions …
The Economics Of Social Data: An Introduction, Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti
The Economics Of Social Data: An Introduction, Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Large internet platforms collect data from individual users in almost every interaction on the internet. Whenever an individual browses a news website, searches for a medical term or for a travel recommendation, or simply checks the weather forecast on an app, that individual generates data. A central feature of the data collected from the individuals is its social aspect. Namely, the data captured from an individual user is not only informative about this specific individual, but also about users in some metric similar to the individual. Thus, the individual data is really social data. The social nature of the data …
Breaking Ties: Regression Discontinuity Design Meets Market Design, Atila Abdulkadiro?Lu, Joshua D. Angrist, Yusuke Narita, Parag A. Pathak
Breaking Ties: Regression Discontinuity Design Meets Market Design, Atila Abdulkadiro?Lu, Joshua D. Angrist, Yusuke Narita, Parag A. Pathak
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Centralized school assignment algorithms must distinguish between applicants with the same preferences and priorities. This is done with randomly assigned lottery numbers, nonlottery tie-breakers like test scores, or both. The New York City public high school match illustrates the latter, using test scores, grades, and interviews to rank applicants to screened schools, combined with lottery tie-breaking at unscreened schools. We show how to identify causal effects of school attendance in such settings. Our approach generalizes regression discontinuity designs to allow for multiple treatments and multiple running variables, some of which are randomly assigned. Lotteries generate assignment risk at screened as …
Variable Mismeasurement In A Class Of Dsge Models: Comment, Ray C. Fair
Variable Mismeasurement In A Class Of Dsge Models: Comment, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This comment points out mismeasurement of variables in the DSGE model in Smets and Wouters (2007) and in models that follow the Smets-Wouters measurement procedures. The mismeasurement errors appear to be large.
Physical Laws And Human Behavior: A Three-Tier Framework, Shabnam Mousavi, Shyam Sunder
Physical Laws And Human Behavior: A Three-Tier Framework, Shabnam Mousavi, Shyam Sunder
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Social sciences start by looking at the social-psychological attributes of humans to model and explain their observed behavior. However, we suggest starting the study of observed human behavior with the universal laws of physics, e.g., the principle of minimum action. In our proposed three-tier framework, behavior is a manifestation of action driven by physical, biological, and social-psychological principles at the core, intermediate, and top tier, respectively. More broadly, this reordering is an initial step towards building a platform for reorganizing the research methods used for theorizing and modeling behavior. This perspective outlines and illustrates how a physical law can account …
Non-Exclusive Insurance With Free Entry: A Pedagogical Note, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos
Non-Exclusive Insurance With Free Entry: A Pedagogical Note, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We consider the Rothschild-Stiglitz model of insurance but without the exclusivity constraint. It turns out that there always exists a unique equilibrium, in which the reliable and unreliable consumers take out a primary insurance up to its quantity limit, and the unreliable take out further secondary insurance at a higher premium. We provide a simple proof of this result (extended to multiple types of consumers) with the hope that it may be pedagogically useful.
Variable Mismeasurement In A Class Of Dsge Models: Comment, Ray C. Fair
Variable Mismeasurement In A Class Of Dsge Models: Comment, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This comment points out mismeasurement of three of the variables in the DSGE model in Smets and Wouters (2007) and in models that use the Smets-Wouters model as a benchmark. The mismeasurement appears serious enough to call into question the reliability of empirical results using these variables.
Inflation In The Great Recession And New Keynesian Models: Comment, Ray C. Fair
Inflation In The Great Recession And New Keynesian Models: Comment, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This comment points out mismeasurement of three of the variables in the DSGE model in Del Negro, Giannoni, and Schorfheide (2015). These errors began with the model in Smets and Wouters (2007), and they also exist in other models that use the Smets-Wouters model as a benchmark. The mismeasurement appears serious enough to call into question the reliability of empirical results using these variables.
Some Important Macro Points, Ray C. Fair
Some Important Macro Points, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper lists 19 points that follow from results I have obtained using a structural macroeconomic model (SEM). Such models are more closely tied to the aggregate data than are DSGE models, and I argue that DSGE models and similar models should have properties that are consistent with these points. The aim is to try to bring macro back to its empirical roots.
Global Collateral And Capital Flows, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos, Gregory Phelan
Global Collateral And Capital Flows, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos, Gregory Phelan
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Cross-border financial flows arise when (otherwise identical) countries differ in their abilities to use assets as collateral to back financial contracts. Financially integrated countries have access to the same set of financial instruments, and yet there is no price convergence of assets with identical payoffs, due to a gap in collateral values. Home (financially advanced) runs a current account deficit. Financial flows amplify asset price volatility in both countries, and gross flows driven by collateral differences collapse following bad news about fundamentals. Our results can explain financial flows among rich, similarly-developed countries, and why these flows increase volatility.
Some Important Macro Points, Ray C. Fair
Some Important Macro Points, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper lists 19 points that follow from results I have obtained using a structural macroeconomic model (SEM). Such models are more closely tied to the aggregate data than are DSGE models, and I argue that DSGE models and similar models should have properties that are consistent with these points. The aim is to try to bring macro back to its empirical roots.
Narratives About Technology-Induced Job Degradation Then And Now, Robert J. Shiller
Narratives About Technology-Induced Job Degradation Then And Now, Robert J. Shiller
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Concerns that technological progress degrades job opportunities have been expressed over much of the last two centuries by both professional economists and the general public. These concerns can be seen in narratives both in scholarly publications and in the news media. Part of the expressed concern about jobs has been about the potential for increased economic inequality. But another part of the concern has been about a perceived decline in job quality in terms of its effects on monotony vs creativity of work, individual sense of identity, power to act independently, and meaning of life. Public policy should take account …
Contract Enforcement And Productive Efficiency: Evidence From The Bidding And Renegotiation Of Power Contracts In India, Nicholas Ryan
Contract Enforcement And Productive Efficiency: Evidence From The Bidding And Renegotiation Of Power Contracts In India, Nicholas Ryan
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Weak contract enforcement may reduce the efficiency of production in developing countries. I study how contract enforcement affects efficiency in procurement auctions for the largest power projects in India. I gather data on bidding and ex post contract renegotiation and find that the renegotiation of contracts in response to cost shocks is widespread, despite that bidders are allowed to index their bids to future costs like the price of coal. Connected firms choose to index less of the value of their bids to coal prices and, through this strategy, expose themselves to cost shocks to induce renegotiation. I use a …
Spatial Linkages, Global Shocks, And Local Labor Markets: Theory And Evidence, Rodrigo Adão, Costas Arkolakis, Federico Espósito
Spatial Linkages, Global Shocks, And Local Labor Markets: Theory And Evidence, Rodrigo Adão, Costas Arkolakis, Federico Espósito
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
How do shocks to economic fundamentals in the world economy affect local labor markets? In a framework with a flexible structure of spatial linkages, we characterize the model-consistent shock exposure of a local market as the exogenous shift in its production revenues and consumption costs. In general equilibrium, labor outcomes in any market respond directly to the market’s own shock exposure, and indirectly to other markets shocks exposures. We show how spatial linkages control the size and the heterogeneity of these indirect effects. We then develop a new estimation methodology - the Model-implied Optimal IV (MOIV) - that exploits quasi-experimental …
Contract Enforcement And Productive Efficiency: Evidence From The Bidding And Renegotiation Of Power Contracts In India, Nicholas Ryan
Contract Enforcement And Productive Efficiency: Evidence From The Bidding And Renegotiation Of Power Contracts In India, Nicholas Ryan
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Weak contract enforcement may reduce the efficiency of investment in developing countries. I study how contract enforcement affects efficiency in procurement auctions for the largest power projects in India. I gather data on bidding and ex post contract renegotiation and find that the renegotiation of contracts in response to cost shocks is widespread, despite that bidders are allowed to index their bids to future costs like the price of coal. Connected firms choose to index less of the value of their bids to coal prices and, through this strategy, expose themselves to cost shocks to induce renegotiation. I use a …
Counterfactuals With Latent Information, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris
Counterfactuals With Latent Information, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We describe a methodology for making counterfactual predictions when the information held by strategic agents is a latent parameter. The analyst observes behavior which is rationalized by a Bayesian model, in which agents maximize expected utility, given partial and differential information about payoff-relevant states of the world, represented as an information structure. A counterfactual prediction is desired about behavior in another strategic setting, under the hypothesis that the distribution of the state and agents’ information about the state are held fixed. When the data and the desired counterfactual prediction pertain to environments with finitely many states, players, and actions, there …
Counterfactuals With Latent Information, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris
Counterfactuals With Latent Information, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We describe a methodology for making counterfactual predictions in settings where the information held by strategic agents is unknown. The analyst observes behavior assumed to be rationalized by a Bayesian model, in which agents maximize expected utility, given partial and differential information about payoff-relevant states of the world. A counterfactual prediction is desired about behavior in another strategic setting, under the hypothesis that the distribution of the state and agents’ information about the state are held fixed. When the data and the desired counterfactual prediction pertain to environments with finitely many states, players, and actions, the counterfactual prediction is described …
Learning Under Diverse World Views: Model-Based Inference, George J. Mailath, Larry Samuelson
Learning Under Diverse World Views: Model-Based Inference, George J. Mailath, Larry Samuelson
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
People reason about uncertainty with deliberately incomplete models, including only the most relevant variables. How do people hampered by different, incomplete views of the world learn from each other? We introduce a model of “model-based inference.” Model-based reasoners partition an otherwise hopelessly complex state space into a manageable model. We nd that unless the differences in agents’ models are trivial, interactions will often not lead agents to have common beliefs, and indeed the correct-model belief will typically lie outside the convex hull of the agents’ beliefs. However, if the agents’ models have enough in common, then interacting will lead agents …
The Wisdom Of A Confused Crowd: Model-Based Inference, George J. Mailath, Larry Samuelson
The Wisdom Of A Confused Crowd: Model-Based Inference, George J. Mailath, Larry Samuelson
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
“Crowds” are often regarded as “wiser” than individuals, and prediction markets are often regarded as effective methods for harnessing this wisdom. If the agents in prediction markets are Bayesians who share a common model and prior belief, then the no-trade theorem implies that we should see no trade in the market. But if the agents in the market are not Bayesians who share a common model and prior belief, then it is no longer obvious that the market outcome aggregates or conveys information. In this paper, we examine a stylized prediction market comprised of Bayesian agents whose inferences are based …
Misinterpreting Others And The Fragility Of Social Learning, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii
Misinterpreting Others And The Fragility Of Social Learning, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We study to what extent information aggregation in social learning environments is robust to slight misperceptions of others’ characteristics (e.g., tastes or risk attitudes). We consider a population of agents who obtain information about the state of the world both from initial private signals and by observing a random sample of other agents’ actions over time, where agents’ actions depend not only on their beliefs about the state but also on their idiosyncratic types. When agents are correct about the type distribution in the population, they learn the true state in the long run. By contrast, our first main result …
Eliminating Latent Discrimination: Train Then Mask, Soheil Ghili, Ehsan Kazemi, Amin Karbasi
Eliminating Latent Discrimination: Train Then Mask, Soheil Ghili, Ehsan Kazemi, Amin Karbasi
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
How can we control for latent discrimination in predictive models? How can we provably remove it? Such questions are at the heart of algorithmic fairness and its impacts on society. In this paper, we define a new operational fairness criteria, inspired by the well-understood notion of omitted variable-bias in statistics and econometrics. Our notion of fairness effectively controls for sensitive features and provides diagnostics for deviations from fair decision making. We then establish analytical and algorithmic results about the existence of a fair classifier in the context of supervised learning. Our results readily imply a simple, but rather counter-intuitive, strategy …