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Articles 811 - 840 of 3476
Full-Text Articles in Economics
The Commercial Paper Funding Facility (U.S. Gfc), Rosalind Z. Wiggins
The Commercial Paper Funding Facility (U.S. Gfc), Rosalind Z. Wiggins
Journal of Financial Crises
In mid-September 2008, prime money market mutual funds (MMMFs) began experiencing run-like redemption requests sparked by one fund that had “broken the buck” because of large exposure to Lehman Brothers commercial paper (CP). As a result, MMMFs, which are significant investors in CP, became reluctant to hold CP. Within a week, outstanding CP had been reduced by roughly $300 billion. The CP market experienced severe shortening of maturities and increased rates, making it difficult for issuers to place new paper. When government efforts to assist the MMMFs did not resolve the stresses in the CP market, the Federal Reserve announced, …
The Primary Dealer Credit Facility (Pdcf) (U.S. Gfc), Karen Yang
The Primary Dealer Credit Facility (Pdcf) (U.S. Gfc), Karen Yang
Journal of Financial Crises
On March 16, 2008, the Federal Reserve created the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, or PDCF, to provide overnight funding to primary dealers in the tri-party repurchase agreement (repo) market, where lenders had become increasingly risk averse. Loans were fully secured by (initially) investment-grade securities and offered at the primary credit rate by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The eligible collateral was significantly expanded in September 2008, after rumors of Lehman Brothers potentially filing for bankruptcy, to include all of the types of instruments that could be pledged at the two major tri-party repo clearing banks. The PDCF was …
The Federal Reserve Single-Tranche Term Repurchase Agreements (U.S. Gfc), Aidan Lawson
The Federal Reserve Single-Tranche Term Repurchase Agreements (U.S. Gfc), Aidan Lawson
Journal of Financial Crises
As mortgage defaults and foreclosures continued to climb, the severe strains that started to plague credit markets in the middle of 2007 worsened further. Losses on housing-related securities and derivative instruments continued to climb, causing substantial damage to the balance sheets of large financial institutions that had levered up on these same securities. As their positions worsened, banks found it increasingly difficult to attract funding that wasn’t priced at exorbitantly high rates or for very short terms. Term funding markets, specifically those that centered on agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), quickly dried up as fears of illiquidity and even insolvency spread. …
The Federal Reserve’S Response To The 1987 Market Crash (U.S. Historical), Kaleb B. Nygaard
The Federal Reserve’S Response To The 1987 Market Crash (U.S. Historical), Kaleb B. Nygaard
Journal of Financial Crises
The S&P 500 lost 10% the week ending Friday, October 16, 1987, and lost an additional 20% the following Monday, October 19, 1987. The date would be remembered as Black Monday. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) responded to the crash in four distinct ways: (1) issuing a public statement promising to provide liquidity, as needed, “to support the economic and financial system”; (2) providing support to the Treasury securities market by injecting in-high-demand maturities into the market via reverse repurchase agreements; (3) allowing the federal funds rate to fall from 7.5% to 7.0% and below; and (4) intervening directly to …
Market Liquidity Programs: Gfc And Before, June Rhee, Greg Feldberg, Ariel Smith, Andrew Metrick
Market Liquidity Programs: Gfc And Before, June Rhee, Greg Feldberg, Ariel Smith, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
The virulence of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–09 (GFC) was explained in large part by the increased reliance of the global financial system on market-based funding and the lack of preexisting tools to address a disruption in that type of system. This paper surveys market liquidity programs (MLPs), which we define as government interventions in which the key motivation is to stabilize liquidity in a specific wholesale funding market that is under stress. Most of the MLPs surveyed in this paper were launched during and after the GFC, but two pre-GFC MLPs are included. A subsequent survey on MLPs …
Designing The Main Street Lending Program: Challenges And Options, William B. English, J. Nellie Liang
Designing The Main Street Lending Program: Challenges And Options, William B. English, J. Nellie Liang
Journal of Financial Crises
The Main Street Lending Program (MSLP) was established by the Federal Reserve to provide loans to small and mid-sized firms and large below-investment-grade firms that were financially sound before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The program, which was established under the Fed’s Section 13(3) emergency authorities, is supported by capital from the U.S. Treasury and became operational in July 2020; however, utilization has been slight. We describe the economic challenges in designing a loan support program and evaluate the MSLP program in terms of how it manages significant asymmetric information, adverse selection, poor targeting, and moral hazard problems while …
Identification And Inference In First-Price Auctions With Risk Averse Bidders And Selective Entry, Xiaohong Chen, Matthew Gentry, Tong Li, Jingfeng Lu
Identification And Inference In First-Price Auctions With Risk Averse Bidders And Selective Entry, Xiaohong Chen, Matthew Gentry, Tong Li, Jingfeng Lu
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We study identification and inference in first-price auctions with risk averse bidders and selective entry, building on a flexible entry and bidding framework we call the Affiliated Signal with Risk Aversion (AS-RA) model. Assuming that the econometrician observes either exogenous variation in the number of potential bidders (N) or a continuous instrument (z) shifting opportunity costs of entry, we provide a sharp characterization of the nonparametric restrictions implied by equilibrium bidding. Given variation in either competition or costs, this characterization implies that risk neutrality is nonparametrically testable in the sense that if bidders are strictly risk averse, then no risk …
Consistent Misspecification Testing In Spatial Autoregressive Models, Jungyoon Lee, Peter C. B. Phillips, Francesca Rossi
Consistent Misspecification Testing In Spatial Autoregressive Models, Jungyoon Lee, Peter C. B. Phillips, Francesca Rossi
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Spatial autoregressive (SAR) and related models offer flexible yet parsimonious ways to model spatial or network interaction. SAR specifications typically rely on a particular parametric functional form and an exogenous choice of the so-called spatial weight matrix with only limited guidance from theory in making these specifications. The choice of a SAR model over other alternatives, such as spatial Durbin (SD) or spatial lagged X (SLX) models, is often arbitrary, raising issues of potential specification error. To address such issues, this paper develops an omnibus specification test within the SAR framework that can detect general forms of misspecification including that …
Optimally Stubborn, Anna Sanktjohanser
Optimally Stubborn, Anna Sanktjohanser
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
I consider a bargaining game with two types of players – rational and stubborn. Rational players choose demands at each point in time. Stubborn players are restricted to choose from the set of “insistent” strategies that always make the same demand and never accept anything less. However, their initial choice of demand is unrestricted. I characterize the equilibria of this game. I show that while pooling equilibria exist, fully separating equilibria do not. Relative to the case with exogenous behavioral types, strong behavioral predictions emerge: in the limit, players randomize over at most two demands. However, unlike in a world …
Migration And Informal Insurance, Costas Meghir, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, Corina Mommaerts, Melanie Morten
Migration And Informal Insurance, Costas Meghir, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, Corina Mommaerts, Melanie Morten
Discussion Papers
Do new migration opportunities for rural households change the nature and extent of informal risk sharing? We experimentally document that randomly offering poor rural households subsidies to migrate leads to a 40% improvement in risk sharing in their villages. Our model of endogenous migration and risk sharing shows that risky and temporary migration opportunities can induce an improvement in risk sharing enabling profitable migration. Accounting for improved risk sharing, the migration experiment increased welfare by 12.9%. However, permanent declines in migration costs improve outside options for households and can lead to reductions in risk sharing. The short-run experimental results for …
When Do Consumers Talk?, Ishita Chakraborty, Joyee Deb, Aniko Öry (Oery)
When Do Consumers Talk?, Ishita Chakraborty, Joyee Deb, Aniko Öry (Oery)
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The propensity of consumers to engage in word-of-mouth (WOM) differs after good versus bad experiences, which can result in positive or negative selection of user-generated reviews. We show how the dispersion of consumer beliefs about quality (brand strength), informativeness of good and bad experiences, and price can affect selection of WOM in equilibrium. WOM is costly: Early adopters talk only if they can affect the receiver’s purchase. Under homogeneous beliefs, only negative WOM can arise. Under heterogeneous beliefs, the type of WOM depends on the informativeness of the experiences. We use data from Yelp.com to validate our predictions.
When Do Consumers Talk?, Ishita Chakraborty, Joyee Deb, Aniko Öry (Oery)
When Do Consumers Talk?, Ishita Chakraborty, Joyee Deb, Aniko Öry (Oery)
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The propensity of consumers to engage in word-of-mouth (WOM) can differ after good versus bad experiences. This can result in positive or negative selection of user-generated reviews. We show how the strength of brand image - determined by the dispersion of consumer beliefs about quality - and the informativeness of good and bad experiences impact the selection of WOM in equilibrium. Our premise is that WOM is costly: Early adopters talk only if their information is instrumental for the receiver’s purchase decision. If the brand image is strong, i.e., consumers have close to homogeneous beliefs about quality, then only negative …
Heterogeneous Paths Of Industrialization, Federico Huneeus, Richard Rogerson
Heterogeneous Paths Of Industrialization, Federico Huneeus, Richard Rogerson
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Industrialization experiences differ significantly across countries. We use a benchmark model of structural change to shed light on the sources of this heterogeneity and, in particular, the phenomenon of premature deindustrialization. Our analysis leads to three key findings. First, benchmark models of structural change robustly generate hump-shaped patterns for the evolution of the manufacturing sector. Second, heterogeneous patterns of catch-up in sectoral productivities across countries can generate variation in industrialization experiences similar to those found in the data, including premature deindustrialization. Third, differences in the rate of agricultural productivity growth across economies can account for a large share of the …
Diagnosing Housing Fever With An Econometric Thermometer, Shuping Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips
Diagnosing Housing Fever With An Econometric Thermometer, Shuping Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Housing fever is a popular term to describe an overheated housing market or housing price bubble. Like other financial asset bubbles, housing fever can inflict harm on the real economy, as indeed the US housing bubble did in the period following 2006 leading up to the general financial crisis and great recession. One contribution that econometricians can make to minimize the harm created by a housing bubble is to provide a quantitative `thermometer’ for diagnosing ongoing housing fever. Early diagnosis can enable prompt and effective policy action that reduces long term damage to the real economy. This paper provides a …
Bootstrap Inference For Quantile Treatment Effects In Randomized Experiments With Matched Pairs, Liang Jiang, Xiaobin Liu, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yichong Zhang
Bootstrap Inference For Quantile Treatment Effects In Randomized Experiments With Matched Pairs, Liang Jiang, Xiaobin Liu, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yichong Zhang
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper examines methods of inference concerning quantile treatment effects (QTEs) in randomized experiments with matched-pairs designs (MPDs). We derive the limit distribution of the QTE estimator under MPDs, highlighting the difficulties that arise in analytical inference due to parameter tuning. We show that the naïve weighted bootstrap fails to approximate the limit distribution of the QTE estimator under MPDs because it ignores the dependence structure within the matched pairs.To address this difficulty we propose two bootstrap methods that can consistently approximate the limit distribution: the gradient bootstrap and the weighted bootstrap of the inverse propensity score weighted (IPW) estimator. …
When Bias Contributes To Variance: True Limit Theory In Functional Coefficient Cointegrating Regression, Peter C. B. Phillips, Ying Wang
When Bias Contributes To Variance: True Limit Theory In Functional Coefficient Cointegrating Regression, Peter C. B. Phillips, Ying Wang
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Limit distribution theory in the econometric literature for functional coefficient cointegrating (FCC) regression is shown to be incorrect in important ways, influencing rates of convergence, distributional properties, and practical work. In FCC regression the cointegrating coefficient vector \beta(.) is a function of a covariate z_t. The true limit distribution of the local level kernel estimator of \beta(.) is shown to have multiple forms, each form depending on the bandwidth rate in relation to the sample size n and with an optimal convergence rate of n^{3/4} which is achieved by letting the bandwidth have order 1/n^{1/2}.when z_t is scalar. Unlike stationary …
High-Dimensional Vars With Common Factors, Ke Miao, Peter C.B. Phillips, Liangjun Su
High-Dimensional Vars With Common Factors, Ke Miao, Peter C.B. Phillips, Liangjun Su
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper studies high-dimensional vector autoregressions (VARs) augmented with common factors that allow for strong cross section dependence. Models of this type provide a convenient mechanism for accommodating the interconnectedness and temporal co-variability that are often present in large dimensional systems. We propose an `1-nuclear-norm regularized estimator and derive non-asymptotic upper bounds for the estimation errors as well as large sample asymptotics for the estimates. A singular value thresholding procedure is used to determine the correct number of factors with probability approaching one. Both the LASSO estimator and the conservative LASSO estimator are employed to improve estimation precision. The conservative …
Common Bubble Detection In Large Dimensional Financial Systems, Ye Chen, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi
Common Bubble Detection In Large Dimensional Financial Systems, Ye Chen, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Price bubbles in multiple assets are sometimes nearly coincident in occurrence. Such near-coincidence is strongly suggestive of co-movement in the associated asset prices and likely driven by certain factors that are latent in the financial or economic system with common effects across several markets. Can we detect the presence of such common factors at the early stages of their emergence? To answer this question, we build a factor model that includes I(1), mildly explosive, and stationary factors to capture normal, exuberant, and collapsing phases in such phenomena. The I(1) factor models the primary driving force of market fundamentals. The explosive …
Information Frictions And Access To The Paycheck Protection Program, John Eric Humphries, Christopher Neilson, Gabriel Ulyssea
Information Frictions And Access To The Paycheck Protection Program, John Eric Humphries, Christopher Neilson, Gabriel Ulyssea
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) extended 669 billion dollars of forgivable loans in an unprecedented effort to support small businesses affected by the COVID-19 crisis. This paper provides evidence that information frictions and the “first-come, first-served” design of the PPP program skewed its resources towards larger firms and may have permanently reduced its effectiveness. Using new daily survey data on small businesses in the U.S., we show that the smallest businesses were less aware of the PPP and less likely to apply. If they did apply, the smallest businesses applied later, faced longer processing times, and were less likely to …
Copula-Based Time Series With Filtered Nonstationarity, Xiaohong Chen, Zhijie Xiao, Bo Wang
Copula-Based Time Series With Filtered Nonstationarity, Xiaohong Chen, Zhijie Xiao, Bo Wang
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Economic and financial time series data can exhibit nonstationary and nonlinear patterns simultaneously. This paper studies copula-based time series models that capture both patterns. We introduce a procedure where nonstationarity is removed via a filtration, and then the nonlinear temporal dependence in the filtered data is captured via a flexible Markov copula. We propose two estimators of the copula dependence parameters: the parametric (two-step) copula estimator where the marginal distribution of the filtered series is estimated parametrically; and the semiparametric (two-step) copula estimator where the marginal distribution is estimated via a rescaled empirical distribution of the filtered series. We show …
You Can Lead A Horse To Water: Spatial Learning And Path Dependence In Consumer Search, Charles Hodgson, Gregory Lewis
You Can Lead A Horse To Water: Spatial Learning And Path Dependence In Consumer Search, Charles Hodgson, Gregory Lewis
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We develop a model of consumer search with spatial learning in which sampling the payoff of one product causes consumers to update their beliefs about the payoffs of other products that are nearby in attribute space. Spatial learning gives rise to path dependence, as each new search decision depends on past experiences through the updating process. We present evidence of spatial learning in data that records online search for digital cameras. Consumers’ search paths tend to converge to the chosen product in attribute space, and consumers take larger steps away from rarely purchased products. We estimate the structural parameters of …
A Public Option For The Core, Yotam Harchol, Dirk Bergemann, Nick Feamster, Eric Friedman, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Aurojit Panda, Sylvia Ratnasamy, Michael Schapira, Scott Shenker
A Public Option For The Core, Yotam Harchol, Dirk Bergemann, Nick Feamster, Eric Friedman, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Aurojit Panda, Sylvia Ratnasamy, Michael Schapira, Scott Shenker
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper is focused not on the Internet architecture – as defined by layering, the narrow waist of IP, and other core design principles – but on the Internet infrastructure, as embodied in the technologies and organizations that provide Internet service. In this paper we discuss both the challenges and the opportunities that make this an auspicious time to revisit how we might best structure the Internet’s infrastructure. Currently, the tasks of transit-between-domains and last-mile-delivery are jointly handled by a set of ISPs who interconnect through BGP. In this paper we propose cleanly separating these two tasks. For transit, we …
Objective Rationality Foundations For (Dynamic) Α-Meu, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yves Le Yaouanq
Objective Rationality Foundations For (Dynamic) Α-Meu, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yves Le Yaouanq
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We show how incorporating Gilboa, Maccheroni, Marinacci, and Schmeidler’s (2010) notion of objective rationality into the alpha-MEU model of choice under ambiguity (Hurwicz, 1951) can overcome several challenges faced by the baseline model without objective rationality. The decision-maker (DM) has a subjectively rational preference $\succsim^\wedge$, which captures the complete ranking over acts the DM expresses when forced to make a choice; in addition, we endow the DM with a (possibly incomplete) objectively rational preference $\succsim^*$, which captures the rankings the DM deems uncontroversial. Under the objectively founded alpha-MEU model, $\succsim^\wedge$ has an alpha-MEU representation and $\succsim^*$ has a unanimity representation …
The Us Employment Situation Using The Yale Labor Survey, Christopher Foote, William D. Nordhaus, Douglas Rivers
The Us Employment Situation Using The Yale Labor Survey, Christopher Foote, William D. Nordhaus, Douglas Rivers
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This study presents the design and results of a rapid-fire survey that collects labor market data for households in the United States. The Yale Labor Survey, or YLS, uses an online panel from YouGov to replicate the Current Population Survey (CPS), which is the source of the government’s monthly household statistics. Questions in the YLS concern current and retrospective employment, hours, and income. Because the YLS draws upon an existing pool of potential respondents, it can generate responses inexpensively and quickly (within 24 hours). Moreover, the YLS can develop new questions in real time to study unusual patterns of work …
Lessons Learned: A Conversation With Paul A. Volcker, Andrew Metrick, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Kaleb B. Nygaard
Lessons Learned: A Conversation With Paul A. Volcker, Andrew Metrick, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Kaleb B. Nygaard
Journal of Financial Crises
On March 26, 2019, Andrew Metrick, the Janet Yellen Professor of Finance at the Yale School of Management and Founder and Director of the Yale Program on Financial Stabilitysat down with Paul A. Volcker to discuss his perspectives on the Federal Reserve, central banking autonomy, “too big to fail,” and how his perspectives on these topics have changed over the decades.It turned out to be one of the last interviews given by the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve System who passed away on December 8, 2019, at the age of 92.
The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response E: The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response E: The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
Securitization is a process that allows banks and other lenders to package loans and sell them as bonds called asset-backed securities (ABS), removing them from their balance sheets and immediately generating cash for new loans. ABS are an important component of the financing cycle for many types of loans to households and small businesses, including mortgages. In the fall of 2008, financial markets began experiencing disturbances as the effects of the U.S. subprime market meltdown spread. The ABS market froze decreasing the volume of new loans to households and small businesses. The Federal Reserve became very concerned about the potential …
The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response D: Commercial Paper Market Facilities, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response D: Commercial Paper Market Facilities, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
During the summer of 2007, the U.S. residential mortgage market began to decline sharply negatively impacting the asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) market, which often relied on mortgages as underlying support. Money Market Mutual Funds (MMMFs), significant investors in commercial paper (CP), quickly retreated from the market, causing a substantial decline in outstanding ABCP. In September 2008, pressures on the markets severely escalated again, when the Reserve Primary Fund MMMF “broke the buck” and prompted run-like redemption requests by many MMMF investors. These disruptions resulted in higher rates and shorter maturities, practically freezing the market for term CP. Concerned about the …
The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response C: Providing U.S. Dollars To Foreign Central Banks, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response C: Providing U.S. Dollars To Foreign Central Banks, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
The financial crisis that began in late 2007 with the decline in the United States (U.S.) subprime mortgage markets quickly spread to other markets and eventually disrupted the interbank funding markets in the U.S. as well as overseas. To address the strain in the U.S. dollar (USD) funding markets, the Federal Reserve worked with foreign central banks around the world to provide USD liquidity to affected overseas markets by entering into currency swap agreements. Following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, and the resulting further destabilization of the world’s financial systems, the size and utilization of these swaps …
The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response B: Lending & Credit Programs For Primary Dealers, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Patricia C. Mosser, Andrew Metrick
The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response B: Lending & Credit Programs For Primary Dealers, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Patricia C. Mosser, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
Beginning in the summer 2007 the Federal Reserve (the Fed) deployed numerous conventional and innovative programs to address the credit crisis occurring in the wholesale lending markets that was beginning to affect the broader financial markets and threaten the economy at large. Two of those programs, the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) and the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) were aimed at providing liquidity to primary dealers and required the Fed to rely on its authority under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. Section 13(3) is a Depression Era amendment that permits the Fed expanded powers in “unusual and …
The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response A: Lending & Credit Programs For Depository Institutions, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response A: Lending & Credit Programs For Depository Institutions, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
Beginning in summer 2007, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) was called upon to address a severe disruption in the interbank lending markets sparked by a downturn in the subprime mortgage market. As these developments began to impact the ability of banks to raise adequate funding, the Fed encouraged them to utilize the Discount Window (DW), its standing facility for lending to depository institutions, and repeatedly decreased the lending rate to make the facility more accessible. Despite the Fed’s efforts, for a number of reasons, including historical perceptions of stigma, banks were reluctant to utilize the DW. In December 2007, the …