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Articles 2461 - 2490 of 3476
Full-Text Articles in Economics
A Bayesian Analysis Of Trend Determination In Economic Time Series, Eric Zivot, Peter C.B. Phillips
A Bayesian Analysis Of Trend Determination In Economic Time Series, Eric Zivot, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In this paper we provide a comprehensive Bayesian posterior analysis of trend determination in general autoregressive models. Multiple lag autoregressive models with fitted drifts and time trends as well as models that allow for certain types of structural change in the deterministic components are considered. We utilize a modified information matrix-based prior that accommodates stochastic nonstationarity, takes into account the interactions between long-run and short-run dynamics and controls the degree of stochastic nonstationarity permitted. We derive analytic posterior densities for all of the trend determining parameters via the Laplace approximation to multivariate integrals. We also address the sampling properties of …
The Long-Run Australian Consumption Function Reexamined: An Empirical Exercise In Bayesian Influence, Peter C.B. Phillips
The Long-Run Australian Consumption Function Reexamined: An Empirical Exercise In Bayesian Influence, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper reports an empirical application of new Baynesian methodology to Australian data on consumption, income, liquid assets and inflation. The methods involve the use of objective model based reference priors and objective posterior odds test criteria. The paper provides an overview of this methodology, which is based on recent work by the author (1991) and joint work with Werner Ploberger (1991) and Eric Zivot (1991). The empirical application involves tests of nonstationarity and cointegration in the data and various long-run model specifications are studied in detail. Bayesian empirical results are presented alongside well-known classical tests and are shown to …
An Implementation Of The Generalized Basis Reduction Algorithm For Integer Programming, William Cook, Thomas Rutherford, Herbert E. Scarf, David F. Shallcross
An Implementation Of The Generalized Basis Reduction Algorithm For Integer Programming, William Cook, Thomas Rutherford, Herbert E. Scarf, David F. Shallcross
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In recent years many advances have been made in solution techniques for specially structured 0–1 integer programming problems. In contrast, very little progress has been made on solving general (mixed integer) problems. This, of course, is not true when viewed from the theoretical side: Lenstra (1981) made a major breakthrough, obtaining a polynomial-time algorithm when the number of integer variables is fixed. We discuss a practical implementation of a Lenstra-like algorithm, based on the generalized basis reduction method of Lovasz and Scarf (1988). This method allows us to avoid the ellipsoidal approximations required in Lenstra’s algorithm. We report on the …
Comment On ‘To Criticize The Critics’, By Peter C.B. Phillips, Christopher A. Sims
Comment On ‘To Criticize The Critics’, By Peter C.B. Phillips, Christopher A. Sims
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In his paper “To Criticize the Critics” (1991), Peter Phillips discusses Bayesian methodology for time series models. The main point that Uhlig and I set out to make, however, was that careful consideration of the implications of the likelihood principle suggests that much of the recent work under the “unit root” label in the econometrics literature is being incorrectly interpreted in practice. We pointed out that time series models with possible unit roots are one of the few domains within which the implications of a likelihood principle approach to inference are difference, even in the large samples, from those of …
Transformations Of The Commodity Space, Behavioral Heterogeneity And The Aggregation Problem, Jean-Michel Grandmont
Transformations Of The Commodity Space, Behavioral Heterogeneity And The Aggregation Problem, Jean-Michel Grandmont
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The aggregation problem in demand analysis and exchange equilibrium is studied by putting restrictions on the shape of the distribution of the agents’ characteristics. This is done by exploiting the finite dimensional linear structure induced on demand functions by affine transformations of the commodity space (or household equivalence scales). Increasing the degree of behavioral heterogeneity in the household sector or more specifically, making the conditional distributions in each equivalence class of demand functions fiat enough, has an important regularizing influence on aggregate budget shares: market demand has a negative dominant diagonal Jacobian matrix, aggregate excess demand has the gross substitutability …
Bayesian Routes And Unit Roots: De Rebus Prioribus Semper Est Disputandum, Peter C.B. Phillips
Bayesian Routes And Unit Roots: De Rebus Prioribus Semper Est Disputandum, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper provides detailed responses to the following 8 discussants of my paper “To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends”: Gary Koop and Mark Steel; Edward Leamer; In-Moo Kim and G. S. Maddala Dale J. Poirier; Peter C. Schotman and Herman K. van Dijk; James H. Stock; David Dejong and Charles H. Whiteman; and Christopher Sims. This reply puts new emphasis on the call made in the earlier paper for objective Bayesian analysis in time series; it underlines the need for a new approach, especially with regard to posterior odds testing; and it draws attention to …
Dynamic Structural Models: Problems And Prospects. Mixed Continuous Discrete Controls And Market Interactions, Ariel Pakes
Dynamic Structural Models: Problems And Prospects. Mixed Continuous Discrete Controls And Market Interactions, Ariel Pakes
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper reviews dynamic structural econometric models with both continuous and discrete controls, and those with market interactions. Its goal is to highlight techniques which enable researchers to obtain estimates of the parameters of models with these characteristics, and then use the estimates in subsequent descriptive and policy analysis. In an attempt to increase the accessibility of structural modeling, emphasis has been laid on estimation techniques which, though consistent with the underlying structural model, are computationally simple. The extent to which this is possible depends on the characteristics of the applied problem of interest, so the paper ends up covering …
The Ecology Of Markets, William D. Nordhaus
The Ecology Of Markets, William D. Nordhaus
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The notion that “everything is connected to everything else” runs through all of modern economics. Economies are connected in the production sphere through the inputs and outputs that circulate through the world; they are connected through the exchange of goods and services; and they are connected by flows of funds through which some people or nations finance the economic activity of others. It is generally believed that the great macroeconomic crises of this century — the periodic banking panics, the Great Depression of the 1930’s, the debt crisis of the 1980’s, the breakdown in socialist economies of today — occurred …
How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?, Ray C. Fair
How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This study uses data on men’s track and field and road racing records by age to estimate the rate at which men slow down with age. For most of the running events (400 meters through the half marathon), the slowdown rate per year is estimated to be .80 percent between ages 35 and 51. At age 51 the rate begins to increase. It is 1.04 percent at age 60, 1.46 percent at age 75, and 2.01 percent at age 95. The slowdown rate is smaller for 100 meters. For the events longer than the half marathon, the rate is smaller …
Stabilizing The Soviet Economy, William D. Nordhaus
Stabilizing The Soviet Economy, William D. Nordhaus
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The proposals in our policy memorandum on economic stabilization — a restrictive monetary policy and a fiscal policy that eliminates the government deficit — are shaped by our view that the Soviet Union today faces a mounting economic crisis. As we emphasized in our discussion in the policy memorandum, problems include issues of inefficient economic structures, distorted prices, large macroeconomic imbalances, divided government, and lack of popular support for steps to stabilize and restructure the economy.
Repeated Games: Cooperation And Rationality, David G. Pearce
Repeated Games: Cooperation And Rationality, David G. Pearce
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The paper is a survey written for the Sixth World congress of the Econometric Society. It is devoted largely to a discussion of the progress made in the last decade in understanding the structure of self-enforcing agreements in discounted supergames of complete information. Perfect and imperfect monitoring models are considered in turn, with attention given to the case of substantial impatience as well as to the various “folk theorems.” The emphasis is on the features of constrained-optimal perfect equilibria, causes of inefficiency, and some relationships among different strands of the literature. The remainder of the paper is a critical and …
The Spurious Effect Of Unit Roots On Exogeneity Tests In Vector Autoregressions: An Analytical Study, Hiro Y. Toda, Peter C.B. Phillips
The Spurious Effect Of Unit Roots On Exogeneity Tests In Vector Autoregressions: An Analytical Study, Hiro Y. Toda, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper analyzes whether inclusion of a statistically independent random walk in a vector autoregression can result in spurious inference. The problem was raised originally by Ohanian (1988). In a Monte Carlo simulation based on the VAR’s estimated by Sims (1980b, 1982), Ohanian found that block exogeneity of the genuine variables with respect to an artificially generated random walk variable was rejected too often. In the present paper we attempt a full analytical study of this problem. It can be shown that if the genuine variables are nonstationary, the Wald statistic for testing the block exogeneity hypothesis does not have …
Testing The Null Hypothesis Of Stationarity Against The Alternative Of A Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have A Unit Root?, Denis Kwiatkowski, Peter C.B. Phillips, Peter Schmidt
Testing The Null Hypothesis Of Stationarity Against The Alternative Of A Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have A Unit Root?, Denis Kwiatkowski, Peter C.B. Phillips, Peter Schmidt
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The standard conclusion that is drawn from this empirical evidence is that many or most aggregate economic time series contain a unit root. However, it is important to note that in this empirical work the unit root is set up as the null hypothesis testing is carried out ensures that the null hypothesis is accepted unless there is strong evidence against it. Therefore, an alternative explanation for the common failure to reject a unit root is simply that most economic time series are not very informative about whether or not there is a unit root; or, equivalently, that standard unit …
Time Series Modelling With A Bayesian Frame Of Reference: I. Concepts And Illustrations, Peter C.B. Phillips, Werner Ploberger
Time Series Modelling With A Bayesian Frame Of Reference: I. Concepts And Illustrations, Peter C.B. Phillips, Werner Ploberger
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper offers a general approach to time series modeling that attempts to reconcile classical and methods. The central idea put forward to achieve reconciliation is that the Bayesian approach relies implicitly a frame of reference for the data generating mechanism that is quite different from the one that is employed in the classical approach. Differences in inferences from the two approaches are therefore to be expected unless the altered frame reference is taken into account. We show that the new frame of reference in Bayesian inference is a consequence of a change of measure that arises naturally in the …
A Bound Of The Proportion Of Pure Strategy Equilibria In Generic Games, Faruk Gul, David G. Pearce, Ennio Stacchetti
A Bound Of The Proportion Of Pure Strategy Equilibria In Generic Games, Faruk Gul, David G. Pearce, Ennio Stacchetti
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In a generic finite normal form game with 2(α) + 1 Nash equilibria, at least alpha of the equilibria are nondegenerate mixed strategy equilibria (that is, they involve randomization by some players).
An ‘Average’ Lyapunov Convexity Theorem And Some Core Equivalence Results, Lin Zhou
An ‘Average’ Lyapunov Convexity Theorem And Some Core Equivalence Results, Lin Zhou
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
I prove an “average” version of the Lyapunov convexity theorem and apply it to establish some core equivalence results for an atomless economy.
Vector Autoregression And Causality, Hiro Y. Toda, Peter C.B. Phillips
Vector Autoregression And Causality, Hiro Y. Toda, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper develops a complete limit theory for Wald tests of Granger causality in levels vector autoregression (VAR’s) and Johansen-type error correction models (ECM’s) allowing for the presence of stochastic trends and cointegration. Earlier work by Sims, Stock and Watson (1990) on trivariate VAR systems is extended to the general case, thereby formally characterizing the circumstances when these Wald tests are asymptotically valid as chi-square criteria. Our results for inference from unrestricted levels VAR are not encouraging.
Exactly Unbiased Estimation Of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models, Donald W.K. Andrews
Exactly Unbiased Estimation Of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models, Donald W.K. Andrews
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper is concerned with the estimation of first-order autoregressive/unit root models with independent identically distributed normal errors. The models considered include those without an intercept, those with an intercept, and those with an intercept and time trend. The autoregressive (AR) parameter alpha is allowed to lie in the interval (-1,1], which includes the case of a unit root. Exactly median-unbiased estimators of the AR parameter alpha are proposed. Exact confidence intervals for this parameter are introduced. Corresponding exactly median-unbiased estimators and exact confidence intervals are also provided for the impulse response function and the cumulative impulse response. An unbiased …
-Person Game And Endogenous Coalition Formation, Lin Zhou
-Person Game And Endogenous Coalition Formation, Lin Zhou
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The two most fundamental questions in cooperative game theory are: When a game is played, what coalitions will be formed and what payoff vectors will be chosen? No previous solution concepts or theories in the literature provide satisfactory answers to both questions; answers are especially lacking for the first one. In this paper we introduce the refined bargaining set, which is the first solution concept in cooperative game theory that simultaneously provides answers to both of the fundamental questions.
Strictly Fair Allocations In Large Exchange Economies, Lin Zhou
Strictly Fair Allocations In Large Exchange Economies, Lin Zhou
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In this paper we introduce the concept of a strictly fair allocation and investigate the set of strictly fair allocations in large exchange economies. We prove that when agents’ utility functions are differentiable, the set of strictly fair allocations coincides with the set of equal-income Walrasian equilibria. This is shown using both the “limit theorem” approach the “limit economy” approach. We also extend the analysis to economies that have both atoms and an atomless sector. These results substantially improve upon the existing characterizations of equal-income Walrasian equilibria in terms of both economic efficiency and economic equity.
Dual Distribution In Franchising, Nancy Gallini, Nancy A. Lutz
Dual Distribution In Franchising, Nancy Gallini, Nancy A. Lutz
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In this paper we offer an explanation for the practice of dual distribution. the simultaneous use of franchises and company owned outlets for distributing new products. Our explanation rests on the observation that franchisors often acquire private information, not available to franchisees, on product demand through marketing efforts. Under this assumption of asymmetric information, we show that a franchisor will use both direct ownership as well as the franchise contract to convey information about a new product. This explanation for dual distribution relies neither on capital market imperfections nor upon location-specific factors, in contrast to alternative explanations advanced in the …
Actual And Warranted Relations Between Asset Prices, Andrea E. Beltratti, Robert J. Shiller
Actual And Warranted Relations Between Asset Prices, Andrea E. Beltratti, Robert J. Shiller
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Efficient markets models assert that the price of each asset is equal to the optimal forecast of its ex-post or fundamental value. These models do not imply, however, that the covariance between two asset prices is given by the covariance between the ex-post values they respectively forecast: these two covariances can even have opposite signs. However, it is possible to place bounds on the covariance between asset prices given the covariance matrix of ex-post values. We present such bounds for both covariances and correlations and show how such bounds can be tightened using information beyond the covariance matrix of ex-post …
Economic Equilibrium And Soviet Economic Reform, Herbert E. Scarf
Economic Equilibrium And Soviet Economic Reform, Herbert E. Scarf
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The paper, prepared for a Roundtable on Major Economic Problems in the U.S. and the U.S.S.R., discusses some aspects of price theory — in particular, the theory of general equilibrium — which may offer some theoretical insights about the economic problems to be encountered during the transition from Socialism to private markets in the Soviet Union.
Arithmetic Repeat Sales Price Estimators, Robert J. Shiller
Arithmetic Repeat Sales Price Estimators, Robert J. Shiller
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Repeat sales price estimators are designed to infer price indexes of infrequently sold and unstandardized assets, such as houses, based only on changes in prices of those individual assets that are observed to be sold twice. Repeat sales price estimators are proposed here that are arithmetic, and either value-weighted or equally-weighted. Moreover, variants are proposed that are interval-weighted, i.e., that correct for a form of heteroskedasticity, and that include additional regressors representing changes in hedonic variables. Some of these methods are applied to data on house prices in Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas and San Francisco 1970–1986.
The Invisible Hand In Modern Macroeconomics, James Tobin
The Invisible Hand In Modern Macroeconomics, James Tobin
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The Invisible Hand, one of the Great Ideas of history and one of the most influential, is Adam Smith’s most important legacy to macroeconomics, as to all economics. It is particularly important today as the ultimate inspiration for the New Classical Macroeconomics and for Real Business Cycle Theory. These are intellectual movements that engage many of the best brains in the profession, especially among younger cohorts and especially in the United States. They dominate the agenda even of theorists and econometricians who are skeptical or hostile to their methods and conclusions.
The Method Of Simulated Scores For The Estimation Of Ldv Models With An Application To External Debt Crisis, Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou, Daniel Mcfadden
The Method Of Simulated Scores For The Estimation Of Ldv Models With An Application To External Debt Crisis, Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou, Daniel Mcfadden
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The method of simulated scores (MSS) is presented for estimating LDV models with flexible correlation structure in the unobservables. We propose simulators that are continuous in the unknown parameter vectors, and hence standard optimization methods can be used to compute the MSS estimators that employ these simulators. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the MSS estimators and derive suitable rates at which the number of simulations must use if biased simulators are used. The estimation method is applied to analyze a model in which the incidence and the extent of debt repayments problems of LDC’s are viewed as optimized …
Shortest Integer Vectors, Herbert E. Scarf, David F. Shallcross
Shortest Integer Vectors, Herbert E. Scarf, David F. Shallcross
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Let A be a fixed integer matrix of size m by n and consider all b for which the body is full dimensional. We examine the set of shortest non-zero integral vectors with respect to the family of norms. We show that the number of such shortest vectors is polynomial in the bit size of A , for fixed n . We also show the existence, for any n , of a family of matrices M for which the number of shortest vectors has as a lower bound a polynomial in the bit size of M of the same degree …
Tests Of Specification For Parametric And Semiparametric Models, Yoon-Jae Whang, Donald W.K. Andrews
Tests Of Specification For Parametric And Semiparametric Models, Yoon-Jae Whang, Donald W.K. Andrews
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper provides a general framework for constructing specification tests for parametric and semiparametric models. The paper develops new specification tests using the general framework. In particular, specification tests for semiparametric partially linear regression, sample selection, and censored regression models are introduced. The results apply in time series and cross-sectional contexts. The method of proof exploits results concerning the stochastic equicontinuity or weak convergence of normalized sums of stochastic processes.
A Strategic Market Game With A Mutual Bank With Fractional Reserves And Redemption In Gold (A Continuum Of Traders), Martin Shubik, Dimitrios P. Tsomocos
A Strategic Market Game With A Mutual Bank With Fractional Reserves And Redemption In Gold (A Continuum Of Traders), Martin Shubik, Dimitrios P. Tsomocos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We utilize the strategic market game approach to analyze the role and function of a mutual bank with variable fractional reserves, redemption in gold and endogenous interest rate formation. We specify the conditions of enough money and its distribution. Using the continuum of traders model, we show existence and optimality for the case of no bankruptcy as well as for the case in which there exists the potentiality of bankruptcy. Finally, we analyze the relationship of the gearing ratio and the bankruptcy penalty with respect to the resulting equilibrium allocations.
Default And Bankruptcy In A Multistage Exchange Economy, Martin Shubik
Default And Bankruptcy In A Multistage Exchange Economy, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Either lending must be secured or otherwise some form of default or bankruptcy rules are required to provide a disincentive against strategic default. When many time periods are involved, the mere specification of a penalty which is sufficient for one period of trade, is not sufficient. The complete specification of even a two period game requires that both the treatment of creditors (including seniority conditions) and the nature of the rehabilitation of the debtor must be specified. This paper explores these problems.