Economics Commons^™

How Employers Shape The Earnings Gap Between Mothers And Fathers, Rebecca Jack, Daniel Tannenbaum, Brenden Timpe

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Short-Run Economic Effects Of Michigan's State-Funded Preschool Programs, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Policy Papers

This policy paper estimates the short-run economic effects of the Great Start Readiness Program (GSRP), Michigan’s state-funded preschool program for 4-year-olds. The paper considers 15year effects on state residents’ per capita incomes due to impacts on employment rates and real wages, as well as cost-savings from free preschool and fiscal benefits due to tax base expansion. These 15-year effects ignore the program’s outcomes for child participants and focus on how the Michigan economy is affected by GSRP’s direct impacts on parents and preschool teachers. The estimates use a regional econometric model of a state’s economy, developed originally to evaluate economic …

Oshtemo Township Housing Plan 2023, Emily Petz, Dakota Mccracken, Gerrit Anderson, Lee Adams, Brian Pittelko

Reports

No abstract provided.

How Even Luxury Housing Can Help Solve The Housing Shortage, Kathleen Bolter

Reports

No abstract provided.

The Parenthood Gap: Firms And Earnings Inequality After Kids, Rebecca Jack, Daniel Tannenbaum, Brenden Timpe

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We document the dynamics of career paths around parenthood, capturing worker advancement within firms and across firms with differing pay rates. Using a new linkage between administrative data on U.S. workers’ fertility and labor market histories, we show that the parental earnings gap is partly explained by mothers transitioning to lower-paying firms. Firm downgrading is driven by parents who take an extended absence from the labor force. Mothers who move to lower-paying firms see improved job amenities but less generous fringe benefits. The firm’s contribution to the parental earnings gap rises over time and reaches one-third by the child’s 11th …

The Past, Present, And Future Of Long-Run Local Population Decline, Brian J. Asquith, Evan Mast

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Granting Unemployment Insurance Benefits In Borderline Cases Helps Workers At Low Cost, Jonathan Cohen, Geoffrey C. Schnorr

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Resident Participation Survey, Regional And Economic Planning Services, W.E. Upjohn Institute For Employment Research

Reports

No abstract provided.

What Is The Value Of The Child And Dependent Care Credit?, Gabrielle Pepin

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The Child and Dependent Care Credit (CDCC) subsidizes child care costs for working families. In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 increased the CDCC’s generosity during 2021 only. I find that while the CDCC is of relatively little value in its current form, increases in eligibility rates and conditional benefits under the pandemic expansion increased the credit’s value dramatically. Conditional on CDCC eligibility, higher-income households experienced the largest increases in benefit levels under the expanded CDCC, but lower-income households benefited disproportionately when measuring benefits as a share of income or child care spending.

Five Key Lessons For Five Core Groups Shaping Place-Based Policy, Kathleen Bolter, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein, Michelle Miller-Adams, Alfonso Hernandez, Kyle Huisman, Bridget Timmeney

Reports

No abstract provided.

New Employer Payroll Taxes And Entrepreneurship, Audrey Guo, Melanie Wallskog

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

How costly are taxes for young firms? In this paper, we demonstrate that even small payroll taxes significantly distort entry, growth, and hiring decisions. First, leveraging cross-sectional variation in the taxes faced by new employers, we find that higher taxes discourage new firms from hiring their first workers, with an elasticity of the number of new employers to taxes of −0.1. Second, studying changes in taxes after entry, we find that higher taxes lead more firms to exit, while also reducing employment for those who survive and leading some firms to avoid taxes by using non-taxable contract labor.

Predicting Rail Transit Impacts With Endogenous Worker Choice: Evidence From Oahu, Justin Tyndall

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The provision of public transportation can improve the accessibility of work opportunities. However, predicting the labor market effects of new transit infrastructure is difficult because of endogenous worker decisions. I examine a large public-transit rail project on the island of Oahu, Hawaii. Using block-level commuter-flow and travel-time estimates, I propose and estimate a quantitative spatial model of location and mode choice for workers. I estimate that the new rail system increases public-transit-mode share and the employment rate but does not reduce the average commute duration, because of endogenous worker sorting. Low-income workers on Oahu capture a significant share of transit’s …

Introducing Slms: Spillover-Based Local Labor Markets, Timothy J. Bartik

Presentations

No abstract provided.

Strengthening Work Requirements? Forecasting Impacts Of Reforming Cash Assistance, Josep M. Nadal-Fernandez, Gabrielle Pepin, Kane Schrader

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Work requirements are perhaps the most controversial aspect of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program, America’s sole federal cash assistance program for low-income families with children. In 2025, for the first time in nearly 20 years, the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 (FRA) will implement policy changes intended to strengthen states’ work requirements. However, researcher’ and policymakers’ understanding of how FRA will impact states’ compliance with federal requirements is hampered by a lack of research and publicly available data.

We tie information from reports submitted to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services that are collected to …

Resource Gaps For Minority Entrepreneurs In The Dayton Ecosystem, Iryna V. Lendel, Megan Zabik, Molly Schnoke, Jack Yochum

Reports

No abstract provided.

Economic Vitality Index: Mapping Michigan’S 83 Counties, Sevrin Williams, Iryna V. Lendel

Reports

No abstract provided.

Occupational Projections For Skilled Trades In Kalamazoo County, 2023-2032, Sevrin Williams, Michael Horrigan, Iryna V. Lendel

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

No abstract provided.

Reduced School Tracking Increased Educational Attainment And Fertility In France, Serena Canaan

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

“Just Right” Definitions Of Local Labor Markets: Introducing Slms, Timothy J. Bartik

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

“Just Right” Definitions Of Local Labor Markets: Introducing Slms, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Aaron Sojourner’S Beginner’S Guide To Bluesky, Aaron Sojourner

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Local Labor Markets Should Be Redefined: New Definitions Based On Estimated Demand-Shock Spillovers, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper provides estimates that lead to better U.S. labor market definitions. Current U.S. labor market definitions—for example, metropolitan areas and commuting zones—are unsatisfactory because they are ad hoc and usually do not correspond to commonly used local planning areas. This paper proposes basing U.S. labor market definitions on how a job shock to a county affects nearby counties’ employment rates. New estimates of county spillovers are presented. Using these estimated spillovers, new multicounty labor market definitions are based on maximizing a weighted sum of total spillovers captured, versus taking the average size of within-market effects. These new “spillover-defined local …

The Past, Present, And Future Of Long-Run Local Population Decline, Brian J. Asquith, Evan Mast

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Broadly Shared Local Economic Success: New Measures And New Lessons For Communities, Timothy J. Bartik

Presentations

No abstract provided.

Birth Dearth And Local Population Decline, Brian J. Asquith, Evan Mast

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Local population decline has spread rapidly since 1970, with half of counties losing population between 2010 and 2020. The workhorse economic models point to net out-migration, likely driven by changing local economies and amenities, as the cause of this trend. However, we show that the share of counties with high net out-migration has not increased. Instead, falling fertility has caused migration rates that used to generate growth to instead result in decline. When we simulate county populations from 1970 to the present holding fertility at its initial level, only 10 percent of counties decline during the 2010s.

Granting Unemployment Insurance Benefits In Borderline Cases Helps Workers At Low Cost, Jonathan Cohen, Geoffrey C. Schnorr

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Efficiency Costs Of Unemployment Insurance Denial: Evidence From Randomly Assigned Examiners, Jonathan Cohen, Geoffrey C. Schnorr

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Approximately 10 percent of Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimants in the United States are denied benefits after being deemed at-fault for their job loss by a government examiner. Using administrative data from California and an examiner leniency design, we estimate the causal effects of extending eligibility to marginally at-fault claimants—those whose job separation reason would be deemed UI-eligible by some examiners but UI-ineligible by others. Approving a marginally at-fault claimant increases UI benefits paid by over $3,000 and lengthens the nonemployment spell by just under two weeks, but it does not decrease labor income. We combine these estimates and other relevant …

Race And The Manufacturing Workforce: Opportunities To Expand Growth And Equity In A Rebounding Industry Sector, Benjamin Armstrong, Matthew D. Wilson, Nichola J. Lowe

Upjohn Institute Policy Papers

This paper provides an overview of the manufacturing work experience of different racial groups. Our goal is to lend support to “middle-out” policy responses that seek to promote greater economic opportunity across the country through targeted sector growth, including manufacturing, while also bringing together people of all races in support of manufacturing regeneration. By pinpointing persistent inequities in U.S. manufacturing, we hope to embolden policy responses that ensure that as the manufacturing sector rebounds and continues to evolve, its high-paying, good-quality jobs are also more inclusive of workers of color.

A Study Of Claim Resolution Settlement Agreements: Final Report, Brian J. Asquith, Yuci Chen, Marcus Dillender, Kevin Hollenbeck, Beth C. Truesdale

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

No abstract provided.

Training Needs And Costs In Kalamazoo's Core Neighborhoods, Timothy J. Bartik, Bridget Timmeney, Zachary Brown, Gerrit Anderson, Kathleen Bolter, Nicholas Martens, Brian Pittelko

Reports

This report estimates training needs in three Kalamazoo “core neighborhoods”: the Northside, Edison, and the Eastside. Using Census data, the analysis estimates the number of people potentially needing training in these neighborhoods as between 1,254 and 2,098 individuals. This report also estimates this training population’s characteristics, including: childcare needs, lack of a household vehicle, disability, felony records, substance abuse, mental illness. All these characteristics pose challenges for many hundreds in the training population. Based on a review of prior effective “sectoral training programs”, a training program may cost $7,300 per trainee, with over two-thirds of this cost due to various …