Economics Commons^™

Workforce Dynamics In Michigan’S Upper Peninsula: Trends, Shocks, And Projections Through 2030, Iryna V. Lendel, Chloe Wieber, Sevrin Williams, Gerrit Anderson, Lee Adams

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

This report examines the economic and workforce dynamics of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula (U.P.) through 2030, highlighting the region’s ongoing transition during population decline, workforce aging, and structural labor shortages. Despite these pressures, the U.P.’s labor force remains relatively stable due to increased participation among older workers, partially offsetting declines in prime-age cohorts. The region’s economy is highly specialized, with strong concentrations in extraction, construction, and production industries—sectors that offer high wages but are vulnerable to cyclical economic downturns.

Using a combination of demographic analysis, occupational data, and industry projections, the study identifies significant skill overlap across key industries, suggesting potential …

Ai Exposure And The Future Of Work: Tasks, Skill Demand, And Education, Erik Vasilauskas, Michael Horrigan

External Papers and Reports

No abstract provided.

How Do Minimum Wages Affect Workplace Injuries?, Michael Davies, R. Jisung Park, Anna Stansbury

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Minimum Wages And Workplace Injuries, Michael Davies, R. Jisung Park, Anna Stansbury

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

How do minimum wage changes affect workplace amenities? Using the universe of claims from California, the US’ largest workers’ compensation system, over 2000-2019, we exploit geographic variation in state- and city-level minimum wages and local occupation-level variation in exposure to minimum wage changes to estimate whether minimum wage increases affect the rate of workplace injuries. We find a large adverse effect of raising minimum wages on injuries. A 10% increase in the minimum wage increases the injury rate by 7.2% in an occupation-metro area labor market which is fully exposed to the minimum wage increase. Our results imply an elasticity …

How Changes In Mexican Immigration To The United States Affect Mexican Labor Markets, Gonzalo Ares De Parga-Regalado, Marta Prato

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Flex, Pivot, Sustain: Adaptive Design Of Promise Programs, Michelle Miller-Adams, Jennifer Iriti

Reports

The design of a Promise program or place-based college scholarship requires community partners to make three key decisions: 1) Which students are eligible, 2) Where can students use the scholarship?, and 3) How should the scholarship be structured? Changes in available funding may affect all three decisions. This practice brief, developed in conjunction with the Kresge Foundation, lays out key principles for redesigning Promise programs when available funding changes, providing three case study examples to illustrate how program officials navigated redesign choices.

The Effects Of Declining U.S. Immigration On Local Labor Markets In Mexico, Gonzalo Ares De Parga-Regalado, Marta Prato

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper examines how declining migration opportunities to the United States affect local labor markets in Mexico. Using novel micro-level data from consular identification cards and deportations, we link individuals’ Mexican municipalities of origin to their U.S. destination states. We implement a shift-share design based on historical migration networks and exploit regional variation in exposure to changes in U.S. migration flows between 2017 and 2022 to identify the local labor market effects of reduced emigration while controlling for involuntary repatriations. While we find no impact on overall employment rates, regions more exposed to the decline in migration experience an increase …

How To Design A State Child And Dependent Care Tax Credit That Works, Gabrielle Pepin

Reports

High care costs for children and older adults put an increasing strain on American families, often pushing caregivers out of the workforce. While investments in affordable care deliver lasting benefits for families, employers, and the economy, the federal Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC) falls short—leaving states well positioned to make a difference. This Policy Blueprint highlights three ways the CDCTC fails families, and three solutions for designing a state tax credit that can help.

More Hours, More Work: Head Start Expansions Boost Maternal Employment, Chloe R. Gibbs, Esra Kose, Maria Rosales Rueda

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Women’s employment remains highly sensitive to childcare constraints, making childcare availability a critical lever for supporting mothers’ labor force attachment. We study the effects of expanded full-day programming in Head Start, using the 2016 federal funding initiative that targeted grantees with low full-day enrollment. Linking administrative program data, geo-coded center locations, and household data on employment, we estimate a difference-in-differences design by comparing mothers of young children in treated and untreated areas. The policy increased full-day enrollment by 19 percent and raised single mothers’ employment (1.9%), hours (2.5%), and earnings (6.5%). Results show that extending program duration meaningfully improves maternal …

Human Capital And Labor Market Effects Of Elite Schooling In England, Scotland, And Wales: New Causal Evidence From Nonparametric Bounds, Zhanhan Yu, Vikesh Amin, Carlos A. Flores, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, Giuseppe Germinario

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We estimate the causal effect of attending elite schools in England, Scotland, and Wales on human capital and labor market outcomes for cohorts of children from the 1958 National Child Development Study and the 1970 British Cohort Study. For identification, we employ a nonparametric partial-identification approach that provides bounds on the causal effect by assuming that, on average, there is positive selection into elite school attendance, and that attending an elite school does not worsen average potential human capital or labor market outcomes. The bounds indicate that there could possibly be large education and labor market returns from attending an …

Early Learning Across Decades: Advances In Measuring Head Start Effectiveness, Chloe R. Gibbs

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The Head Start program, launched in 1965 and targeted to children from disadvantaged backgrounds, remains the largest early childhood care and education (ECE) program in the United States and the only one deployed at the federal level. As such, the Head Start literature spans several decades and now allows for synthesis of findings from different contexts, time periods, and research designs. This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the rigorous evidence measuring Head Start’s effects on children, their families, and society. The focus is on how (1) the contrast between program and counterfactual conditions, (2) takeup of the program among …

Updated Kalamazoo County Housing Plan 2025, Emily Petz, Val Klomparens, Gerrit Anderson, Lee Adams

Reports

A healthy housing continuum provides homes for those in a range of incomes or in different life situations. Kalamazoo County has a shortage of housing units at multiple price points. Low rates of construction, high construction costs, increased demand from a growing population, and housing costs that are increasing faster than wages have contributed to the shortage and affordability issues. This update completed in Spring of 2025 includes new housing assessment and demand numbers to incorporate the impact of the Ford BlueOval Battery Park in Marshall. The demand shows a total of 8,000 units are needed by 2030. If all …

Military Service During The Vietnam War Hurt Veterans’ Long-Term Health, Xintong Wang, Carlos A. Flores, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Do Older Americans Work More When Their Housing Wealth Declines?, Brian J. Asquith

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

An Evaluation Of Structural Gaps And Systemic Barriers In The Entrepreneurship Ecosystem, Iryna V. Lendel, Chloe Wieber, Molly Schnoke

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

This comprehensive study of Dayton, Ohio’s minority entrepreneurial ecosystem was supported by the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation. Based on a multi-year research effort and in-depth interviews with business support organizations (BSOs) and ecosystem stakeholders, the study examines how Dayton’s extensive network of entrepreneurial services supports minority and underrepresented entrepreneurs, identifies persistent gaps, and documents how the ecosystem has evolved amid COVID-19 disruptions, declining federal funding, and shifting approaches to diversity, equity, and inclusion. The study highlights strengths such as well-built early-stage support and collaborative service networks, alongside challenges including limited later-stage business assistance, fragmented entry points, misaligned performance metrics, and …

Economic Outlook Of Battle Creek: Challenges And Opportunities, Iryna V. Lendel, Chloe Wieber, Sevrin Williams, Gerrit Anderson

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

This report by the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research examines labor market dynamics in Battle Creek, finding that roughly 75 percent of jobs in the city are held by workers who live outside the city limits, with significant skill mismatches between city residents and local employer needs. This mismatch helps explain persistently low wages, elevated poverty rates, and high reliance on public assistance among city residents despite a strong manufacturing base and growing logistics, food processing, and machining sectors. Limited housing supply, inadequate public transportation, and childcare shortages further restrict residents’ access to employment. The report underscores the urgency …

Military Service During The Vietnam War Hurt Veterans’ Long-Term Health, Xintong Wang, Carlos A. Flores, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Does Investing In Schools Reduce Violent Crime?, Jamein Cunningham, Monique E. Davis, Kenneth Whaley

Presentations

No abstract provided.

South Carolina Reemployment Services And Eligibility Assessments (Resea) Randomized Controlled Trial Design Report, Gabrielle Pepin, Ethan Jenkins, Christopher J. O'Leary, Aaron Sojourner

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

No abstract provided.

How Fair Workweek Laws Affect Labor Markets: A New York City Case Study, Joseph Pickens, Aaron Sojourner

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Women’S Mba Peers Affect Their Course Choices, Career Paths, And The Gender Pay Gap, Mallika Thomas

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Understanding Michigan’S Reconnect Program Applicants, Alexander W. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein, Brian Jacob, Kevin M. Stange, Bryan A. Stuart, Zhonghan Xie

Reports

No abstract provided.

Berrien County Talent Ecosystem, Lee Adams, Val Klomparens

Reports

No abstract provided.

An Economic Impact Analysis Of Rx Kids In Flint, Michigan, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein, Iryna V. Lendel, Sevrin Williams

Reports

No abstract provided.

Migration And U.S. Labor Market Effects Of The Mexican Drug War, Mark Borgschulte, Yuci Chen, Eduardo Medina-Cortina

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We estimate the effect of the Mexican drug war on Mexico-to-U.S. migration and the resulting effects on population, employment, and wages in U.S. labor markets. Our empirical strategy compares U.S. counties differentially connected to Mexican municipalities through historical migration networks, using drug violence triggered by close municipal elections in 2007–2008 as a source of exogenous variation. Over the following decade, migrants fleeing the violence—the vast majority of whom are undocumented—cause native-born U.S. workers’ employment rates to increase and unemployment rates to fall, while wages do not change. Employment gains are largest for natives without a college degree. Employment effects fade …

Just Cause Protection Under Manager Discrimination, Joseph Pickens, Aaron Sojourner

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

“Just cause” policies aim to discourage the arbitrary firing of employees. Recent efforts at passing such laws in the U.S. have been motivated by deterring discrimination. This paper presents a framework to study the effects of just cause when managers engage in taste-based discrimination. The framework generates predictions on whether just cause will ease achievement and retention of stable employment by exploiting the timing of separations around a probationary period. Since probationary periods are a typical feature of protections, the approach is generalizable. We test predictions using New York City’s 2021 just cause law for fast-food employees. Using a synthetic …

Nyc’S “Just Cause” Law Aims To Make It Harder To Fire Fast Food Workers. Does It?, Joseph Pickens, Aaron Sojourner

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

How Fair Workweek Laws Affect Labor Markets: A New York City Case Study, Joseph Pickens, Aaron Sojourner

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Ten Lessons In Public–Private Partnerships To Create Good Jobs, Kathleen Bolter, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein, Michelle Miller-Adams, Alfonso Hernandez, Kyle Huisman, Bridget Timmeney

Reports

No abstract provided.

Do Older Americans Work More When Their Housing Wealth Declines?, Brian J. Asquith

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.