Economics Commons^™

Analyzing Google Maps As A Data Source For Urban Research In Dhaka, Xinyi Du

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This paper investigates how mass transit infrastructure shapes urban economic activity by examining the impact of Dhaka's first metro line using novel Google Maps data. Leveraging the opening of Metro Line 6 on December 2022, we employ a difference-in-differences framework to analyze changes in business establishment density around metro stations. Our estimates show that every 1% reduction in distance to the nearest metro station adds, on average, about 0.092–0.111 establishments per 40 m × 40 m grid cell—that is, roughly 57 – 69 additional businesses per square kilometer. The effect is even more pronounced for dining: about 1 – 4 …

Three Essays In Development Economics, Vardaan Chawla

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation explores policy-relevant questions through three empirical studies on issues related to education, human capital formation, and consumer protection in developing countries. The first two chapters focus on education policies in India and examine their intended and unintended impacts on children’s schooling and labour-market outcomes. The third chapter evaluates a new approach to tackle consumer protection issues in digital finance in Uganda and Bangladesh. Across all three, this dissertation reflects an interest and understanding in advancing evidence-based policymaking in developing countries, be it in education or consumer protection.

In the first chapter, we evaluate the impact of the midday …

Undominated Mechanisms, Tilman Borgers, Jiangtao Li, Kexin Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the design of mechanisms when the designer faces multiple plausible scenarios and is uncertain about the true scenario. A mechanism is dominated by another if the latter performs at least as well in all plausible scenarios and strictly better in at least one. A mechanism is undominated if no other feasible mechanism dominates it. We show how analyzing undominated mechanisms could be useful and illustrate the tractability of characterizing such mechanisms. This approach provides an alternative criterion for mechanism design under non-Bayesian uncertainty, complementing existing methods.

Technifying Ventures, Yoshiki Ando, Emin Dinlersoz, Jeremy Greenwood, Ruben Piazzesi

Research Collection School Of Economics

How do advanced technology adoption and venture capital (VC) funding impact employment and growth? An analysis of data from the US Census Bureau suggests that while both advanced technology use and VC funding matter on their own for firm outcomes, their joint presence is most strongly correlated with higher employment levels. VC presence is linked with a high increase in employment, though primarily among a limited subset of firms. In contrast, technology adoption is associated with a smaller rise in employment, yet it influences a considerably larger number of firms. A model of startups is created, focusing on decisions to …

The Aggregate Welfare And Trade Implications Of Contracting Frictions In Global Sourcing, Davin Chor, Lin Ma

Research Collection School Of Economics

How much do contracting frictions between global firms and their suppliers impact country welfare and trade? We answer this by developing a model of global sourcing under partial contractibility, where firm-supplier relationships are exposed to a bilateral holdup problem. Sourcing decisions aggregate into a gravity equation for trade flows by organizational mode (intrafirm vs. arm’s length), which we take to structural estimation. We can then evaluate welfare changes with an extended Arkolakis, Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2012) formula that incorporates these contracting frictions. Our counterfactual analysis reveals a sizeable average country welfare gain of 9.2% from eliminating contracting frictions in global …

High Frequency Factor Analysis With Partially Observable Factors, Dachuan Chen, Wenqi Lu, Siyu Xie

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers a novel factor structure – Partially Observable Factor Model – where both observable factors and latent factors exist in the model simultaneously. Such factor structure can make sure both interpretability and goodness-of-fit at the same time. Necessary estimation methodologies for this partially observable factor model are developed in this paper for the high frequency data. The proposed estimation methodology is robust to jumps, microstructure noise and asynchronous observation times simultaneously.When the observable factors are exogenous, we provide the estimation theory for the integrated eigenvalues of the residual covariance matrix, which including the bias-corrected estimator, central limit theorem …

Multi-Period Portfolio Allocation: A One-Shot Stochastic Optimization Approach, Peng Liu, Chyng Wen Tee, Xiaofei Xu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Multi-period portfolio optimization is a central problem in finance, yet it is computationally intractable for traditional dynamic programming methods due to the curse of dimensionality. This paper develops a tractable and theoretically grounded 'one-shot' stochastic optimization framework that recasts the sequential decision problem into a single, high-dimensional optimization task. Our approach models the predictive distribution of factor returns using Gaussian Processes (GPs), allowing it to capture complex, non-linear market dynamics. We make three primary contributions. First, for the special case of a linear GP kernel, we derive an analytical solution for the optimal portfolio path, providing a clear economic interpretation …

Do Search Costs Explain Persistent Investment In Active Mutual Funds?, Aljoscha Janssen, Jurre Thiel

Research Collection School Of Economics

Active funds, though losing market share since the 1990s, make up nearly half of all mutual funds but charge more without better performance. We analyze fund data and a search model, highlighting the impact of search costs and active fund preferences. From 1993 to 2018, reduced search costs expanded the market and heightened competition, while a preference shift from active to passive funds increased the latter's market share. However, investors who choose active funds, facing higher search costs, and continue to show a strong preference for them, allow these funds to keep charging higher fees.

One-Sided Limited Commitment And Aggregate Risk, Yoshiki Ando, Dirk Krueger, Harald Uhlig

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we study the neoclassical growth model with idiosyncratic income risk and aggregate risk in which risk sharing is endogenously constrained by one sided limited commitment. Households can trade a full set of contingent claims that pay off depending on both idiosyncratic and aggregate risk, but limited commitment rules out that households sell these assets short. The model results, under suitable restrictions of the parameters of the model, in partial consumption insurance in equilibrium. With log-utility and idiosyncratic income shocks taking two values one of which is zero (e.g., employment and unemployment) we show that the equilibrium can …

The Rising Returns To R&D: Ideas Are Not Getting Harder To Find, Yoshiki Ando, James Bessen, Xiupeng Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

R&D has grown robustly, yet aggregate productivity growth has stagnated. Is this because “ideas are getting harder to find”? Using microdata from the US Census Bureau this paper estimates R&D effectiveness in the manufacturing sector from 1976 to 2018. We find that the marginal effect of R&D on output and the gross marginal returns to R&D have risen sharply. But rivals’ R&D has also gotten more effective, raising expected obsolescence. But firm productivity growth rises with growth in the R&D stock. Higher obsolescence slows the accumulation of R&D capital, reducing the contribution to productivity growth and shortening innovation lives.

Reducing Carbon Emissions Through Sustainable Food Consumption: Applying An A-S-I Framework On Beijing Residents, Xuan Yang, Jiaxin Zou, Jingyao Gao, Shu Yang

Student Publications

The food sector represents one of the largest contributors to global climate change, making it urgent for the public to transform their food consumption behavior. However, food consumption behaviors that can facilitate carbon reduction, and how to classify these behaviors from the perspective of behavioral science, have not been deeply explored. This study pioneers a novel categorization of carbon-mitigating food consumption behaviors based on an A-S-I framework (i.e., “Avoid” food loss and waste, “Shift” to low-carbon alternatives, and “Improve” dietary structure). Such a classification not only encompasses the full spectrum of emission-altering behaviors but also enables identification of common determinants …

Local Insights Into Global Value Chains, Pao-Li Chang

Asian Management Insights

Leveraging firm-level data to inform anticipatory economic policy decisions.

Do Government Benefit Programs Reduce Child Labor?: Causal Evidence From The Midday Meal Scheme In India, Vardaan Chawla, Tomoki Fujii, Arpita Khanna, Ray Rohan

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study evaluates the impact of the midday meal program in India on the prevalence of child labor for upper primary school going children. The staggered implementation of the largest school feeding program in the world across states provides exogenous variation in exposure. Using the nationally representative National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) data, we find that exposure to the program reduced prevalence of child labor by 47 percent relative to children in never-treated states, with no significant difference in impact between boys and girls. The effects were primarily driven by a decline in household labor supply, especially performance of household …

The Pricing Of Green Bonds And The Determinants Of The Green Bond Premium In The Asia-Pacific And European Markets, Parath Wongaree, Chiyachantana N. Chiraphol, Kuan Yong David Ding, Pattarawan Prasarnphanich, Wasin Siwasarit

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study examines the sources of capital for sustainable development and investigates the existence of a green bond premium in both primary and secondary bond markets across the Asia-Pacific and European regions. Utilizing the robust Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM) method in conjunction with the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE), our analysis reveals a significant disparity in yields between green bonds and conventional bonds within the Asia-Pacific markets, indicating the existence of a green bond premium. In contrast, this distinction is not observed in Europe. These findings suggest that investors in the Asia-Pacific region display a willingness to accept lower yields …

Efficient Bilateral Trade With Interdependent Values: The Use Of Two-Stage Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Cuiling Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Efficient, voluntary bilateral trades are generally not implementable in an interdependent values environment with two-sided asymmetric information. To obtain more positive results, we consider two-stage mechanisms in which (i) the outcome (e.g., allocation of the goods) is determined first; (ii) the agents partially learn the state via their own outcome-decision payoffs; and (iii) transfers are finally made. We propose the approximate shoot-the-liar (AS) mechanism and identify Assumption 1, under which “approximately” efficient, voluntary trades are implementable. We further illustrate the permissiveness of the assumption, and characterize it in terms of the nature of interdependence in valuation functions—delineating the boundary between …

Strategic Thinking Skills: A Key To Collective Economic Success, Syngjoo Choi, Seonghoon Kim, Wooyoung Lim

ROSA Journal Articles and Publications

We conduct a large-scale experiment to measure elementary aspects of strategic thinking skills and their linkage to labor market outcomes. Two incentivized measures of higher-order rationality and backward induction are developed. Males' (females') strategic thinking skills are positively (negatively) associated with individual labor income. However, among married individuals, strategic thinking skills are significantly and positively associated with their household labor income regardless of gender, highlighting the importance of strategic thinking skills for collective economic success. We argue that the intrahousehold channels encompassing collective labor supply with home-to-workplace spillover and marriage assortative matching offer the most plausible explanation for our findings.

Three Essays On Robust Mechanism Design, Kexin Wang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of three chapters that study the mechanism design problems when the designer does not completely know the economic environments. In the first chapter, we study the design of contracts when the principal has limited statistical information about the output distributions induced by the agent’s actions. In the baseline model, we consider a principal who only knows the mean of the output distribution for each action. The mean restrictions allow for a large set of profiles of output distributions, including some extreme output distributions that can be used to establish the robust optimality of increasing affine contracts. Motivated …

Essays On Institutions And Human Capital, Xiaofan Zhu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation investigates the critical role of political and culturally embedded institutions in shaping human capital investment and firm behavior, focusing on three distinct but related areas. Chapter 1 investigates how institutional quality influences educational choices in China, with a focus on behavioral responses to the anti-corruption campaign. The study finds that politically connected students from regions more a!ected by the campaign are significantly more likely to pursue further education – especially those with non-STEM majors, weaker academic performance, and stronger political ties. The analysis of underlying mechanisms suggests that as the employment environment became more equitable, connected individuals responded …

The Effects Of Income On Infant Health: Evidence From The Coal Boom And Bust, Chu Gek Chew

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

An individual’s health at birth is an important component in human capital accumulation, posing significant implications both in the short- and long-run. I investigate how infant health outcomes were impacted during a period of successive positive and negative economic shocks led by the coal industry between the 1970s to 1990s. Using exogenous variation within counties’ pre-existing coal reserves, I instrument for the changes in economic opportunities during the coal boom and bust. I find some limited evidence that an increase in income improves infant health outcomes. The incidence of low birthweight is decreasing in earnings growth, and effects are stronger …

Does Moving From One-Story Building To Multi-Building Affect The Health Status Of The Elderly: Evidence From China’S Par Program, Lu Cao

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This study investigates the causal impact of relocating from single-story to multistory buildings on the health outcomes of elderly residents in China. Using China’s Poverty Alleviation Relocation (PAR) program as an exogenous policy shock, we employ instrumental variable and difference-in-differences approaches to establish causality. Our analysis of data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011-2018) reveals a nuanced relationship between vertical living and elderly health. While relocation to multi-story buildings is associated with deterioration in self-reported physical health status, it significantly improves mental health conditions and life satisfaction among elderly movers. We identify two key mechanisms driving these …

Intraday Volatility In Financial Markets: Evidence From High-Frequency Data, Haolin Wang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

In this study, we conduct an analysis of intraday spot volatility using high-frequency data from the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). We begin with the assumption that the intraday volatility of asset prices exhibits time-variation. To capture this dynamic behavior, we construct proxies for the unobserved spot volatility by applying appropriate estimators to the high-frequency price data. Following the estimation procedure, we employ various forecasting models to generate volatility forecasts. Finally, we evaluate and compare the predictive performance of these models using established forecast evaluation metrics, and analyze the results.

Essays On Financial Econometrics, Yuexuan Ren

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of two papers that contribute to the theory of estimation, inference, and prediction using high-frequency financial data. In the first chapter, time-varying betas from return regressions, commonly used to measure systematic financial market risk, are studied using high-frequency data. A novel econometric framework is introduced for the nonparametric estimation of these betas. The optimal finite-sample inference, in a well-defined sense, is enabled by the local Gaussian property of a generic continuous-time benchmark model under the fixed-k framework. Furthermore, a uniform functional inference theory for spot regressions is developed. The proposed methodology is broadly applicable in empirical settings, …

Essays On Spatial Economics And International Trade, Yunlong Song

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of two chapters that study the China’s spatial economy in the context of heterogenous skill workers, local capital investment, and foreign direct investment (FDI). The first chapter studies how production factor accumulations in space respond to economic shocks or events, and how those responses modify the aggregate and distributional impacts of shocks. To examine their responses and implications, we develop a dynamic spatial model that incorporates capital accumulation and skill acquisition. Focusing on China’s trade liberalization and infrastructure expansion in the early 2000s, we show that allowing for capital accumulation amplifies welfare gains and intensifies between-skill inequality, …

Is Subjective Well-Being Insured Against Income Shocks? Evidence From 20-Year Panel Data In South Korea, Jiyeon An, Taehyun Ahn, Kim

Research Collection School Of Economics

Using 20 years of nationally representative panel data in South Korea, we estimate how life satisfaction responds to income shocks. We document that unexpected income changes significantly impact an individual's life satisfaction, and the magnitudes depend on the persistence of income shocks. We find that permanent income shocks substantially penetrate life satisfaction, while transitory income shocks have minimal impact. We also find that life satisfaction regarding external factors such as family income and leisure activities is more sensitive to income shocks than life satisfaction related to social relationships. Our findings imply that it is critical for the government to address …

Strategizing Towards The Future Hospital: A Systems Thinking Approach, Ashish Kumar, Sean Shao Wei Lam, Sze Ling Chan, Yingqi Xu, Yao Ge, Geoffrey Kah Tack Gui, Hiang Khoon Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Background: The complex systemic nature of Future Hospital design in the rapidly ageing city-state of Singapore calls for systems thinking. We apply this approach to answer two research questions: (i) What are the variables that drive the present and future dynamics of the Future Hospital system? (ii) How are these driving variables related? Methods: Causal loop diagrams (CLDs) were developed collaboratively by a cross-functional system modelling team through group modelling discussions and reviews, totalling 20 sessions. Network analysis of the resulting CLDs was used to identify dominant variables. Results: Seven interlocking CLDs (national view, cluster view, and study hospital top …

Valuation Of Crypto Assets On Blockchain With Deep Learning Approach, Xi Zhou, Yin Pang, Esther Ying Yang, Jing Rong Goh, Shaun Shuxun Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

With the rapid expansion of the blockchain ecosystem, crypto asset valuation has become an essential area of study for investors and institutions. Here, we introduce a deep learning framework that was designed to predict the value index of crypto assets by integrating intrinsic value variables and decomposing market prices into value and sentiment components. The Crypto Asset Value-indexing Model (CAVM) was applied to Ethereum’s cryptocurrency ETH to demonstrate its effectiveness. Four econometric tests were conducted to verify the informativeness, predictiveness, and reasonability of the generated value indices, as well as the efficiency of price decomposition. Our findings suggested that the …

Limit Theory For Local Polynomial Estimation Of Functional Coefficient Models With Possibly Integrated Regressors, Ying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Limit theory for functional coefficient cointegrating regression was recently found to be considerably more complex than earlier understood. The issues were explained and correct limit theory derived for the kernel weighted local level estimator in Phillips and Wang (2023b). The present paper provides complete limit theory for the general kernel weighted local th order polynomial estimators of the functional coefficient and the coefficient derivatives. Both stationary and nonstationary regressors are allowed. Implications for bandwidth selection are discussed. An adaptive procedure to select the fit order  is proposed and found to work well. A robust -ratio is constructed following the new …

Tba Trading And Security Issuance In The Agency Mbs Market, Yu An, Wei Li, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In addition to the standard individual-security-based specified pool (SP) contract, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are actively traded via the to-be-announced (TBA) contract that sets a uniform price for a cohort of heterogeneous securities. We provide empirical support for the economic impact of TBA trading on MBS issuers' security design: issuers pick low-quality loans and pool them together into few TBA MBS. We then conduct a quantitative analysis and show that TBA-trading-induced strategic MBS design increases issuers' selling revenue by about 55% of the SP transaction costs. Finally, we show that smaller issuers are less able to package low-quality loans separately …

The Impact Of Nafta On Prices And Competition: Evidence From Mexican Manufacturing Plants, Felipe Brugués, Ayumu Ken Kikkawa, Yuan Mei, Pablo Robles

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper assesses the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement on Mexican manufacturing plants’ output prices and markups. We distinguish between Mexican goods that are exported and those sold domestically, and decompose their prices separately into markups and marginal costs. We then analyze how these components were affected by the reductions in Mexican output tariffs, intermediate input tariffs, and U.S. tariffs on Mexican exports. We find that domestically sold products saw a decline in prices as Mexican plants faced more competition and gained access to cheaper inputs. Prices of exported goods fell only slightly as plants increased their …

How Industrial Clusters Affect Technological Innovation: Evidence From Vanyang Small & Micro Industrial Park, Jianming Wu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This study focuses on the mechanism through which industrial clusters enhance technological innovation among micro and small enterprises. Using the VanYang Micro-Enterprise Park in Zhejiang Province as a representative case, the research integrates perspectives from industrial cluster theory, innovation theory, and spatial economics to explore how clustered environments influence enterprise innovation performance through resource integration, knowledge spillovers, and organizational collaboration. Departing from traditional static comparative methods, this study adopts an event study approach to dynamically capture the impact trajectory and temporal structure of enterprise innovation performance, with "entry into the park" serving as the key event.

Based on panel data …