Economics Commons^™

The Interplay Between Real Estate Prices In Shenzhen, Dongguan And Huizhou, Zhituan Su

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

In recent years, the Chinese government has proposed a national development strategy for the construction of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, which has been beefing up the trend of integrated development of Shenzhen, Dongguan and Huizhou, frontiers of the reform and opening up. Among many other topics, the evolution of the real estate prices in Shenzhen, Dongguan and Huizhou has become a front-burner topic.

In this dissertation focusing on the real estate price in Shenzhen, Dongguan and Huizhou, we have conducted in-depth analysis of the interplay between the real estate price in Shenzhen, Dongguan and Huizhou from such perspectives as …

Political Connections And The Value Of Cash Holdings, Yuanto Kusnadi

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

This study examines how political connections influence the value of cash holdings in an international setting. The main finding reveals that political connections are not associated with the value of cash holdings in the overall sample. However, further analysis demonstrates that political connections are negatively associated with the value of cash holdings for firms inemerging markets and in countries with high levels of corruption. Moreover, the negative valuation of cash holdings is driven by firms that are connected through large shareholders. Overall, the findings provide new insights into the value relevance of cash holdings, especially for politically connected firms.

Singapore As A Sustainable City: Past, Present And The Future, Tomoki Fujii, Rohan Ray

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper outlines Singapore’s major sustainability challenges and its policy response in the areas of land use, transportation, waste management, water, and energy. We review the current and past Concept Plans from the perspective of sustainable land use and provide an overview of transportation policy in Singapore. We also examine Singapore’s policies to manage increasing wastes and review the four tap water management plan. Finally, we look at various initiatives by the government for sustainable use of energy. While Singapore has been successful in many ways in transforming itself into one of the most prosperous and sustainable cities in the …

Wti Crude Oil Option Implied Var And Cvar: An Empirical Application, Giovanni Barone-Adesi, Marinela Adriana Finta, Chiara Legnazzi, Carlo Sala

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using option market data we derive naturally forward-looking, non-parametric and model-free risk estimates, three desired characteristics hardly obtainable using historical returns. The option-implied measures are only based on the first derivative of the option price with respect to the strike price, bypassing the difficult task of estimating the tail of the return distribution. We estimate and backtest the 1%, 2.5%, and 5% WTI crude oil futures option-implied value at risk and conditional value at risk for the turbulent years 2011–2016 and for both tails of the distribution. Compared with risk estimations based on the filtered historical simulation methodology, our results …

Volatility Timing Under Low-Volatility Strategy, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The authors devise a volatility timing strategy based on statistical tests on the slope of the volatility decile portfolio return profile. Superior performance is obtained, with a 30% increase in Sharpe ratio and an order of magnitude improvement on cumulated wealth. The profitability of the volatility timing strategy can be attributed to holding a diversified portfolio during bear markets, while holding a concentrated growth portfolio during bull markets.

Forecasting Realized Volatility Using A Nonnegative Semiparametric Model, Anders Eriksson, Daniel P. A. Preve, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper introduces a parsimonious and yet flexible semiparametric model to forecast financial volatility. The new model extends a related linear nonnegative autoregressive model previously used in the volatility literature by way of a power transformation. It is semiparametric in the sense that the distributional and functional form of its error component is partially unspecified. The statistical properties of the model are discussed and a novel estimation method is proposed. Simulation studies validate the new method and suggest that it works reasonably well in finite samples. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the proposed model is evaluated against a number of …

The World Predictive Power Of U.S. Equity Market Skewness Risk, Jian Chen, Fuwei Jiang, Shuyu Xue, Jiaquan Yao

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study investigates the cross-country impact of U.S. equity market skewness risk. We find that a large decrease in the U.S. market skewness significantly predicts higher future returns on international equity markets. The predictability remains significant after controlling for a set of U.S. and local forecasting variables. Furthermore, we find strong predictability in- an out-of-sample setting and the predictability delivers a large economic value. The U.S. market skewness also forecasts U.S. economic recessions and international market conditions, consistent with the international three-moment capital asset pricing model (three-moment CAPM) and the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM).

An Interview Question That Brought About Some Thoughts, Zhengxiao Wu

Research Collection School Of Economics

We tackle the question posed by journalist Mehdi Hassan – on how many Chinese lives could be lost or would have to be lost to justify a single percentage of economic growth. We considered a utility maximization problem where the utility function is defined to be the sum of the life expectancy at birth for all Chinese nationals.

Estimation And Inference Of Fractional Continuous-Time Model With Discrete-Sampled Data, Xiaohu Wang, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a two-stage method for estimating parameters in a para-metric fractional continuous-time model based on discrete-sampled observations. In the first stage, the Hurst parameter is estimated based on the ratio of two second-order differences of observations from different time scales. In the second stage, the other parameters are estimated by the method of moments. All estimators have closed-form expressions and are easy to obtain. A large sample theory of the pro-posed estimators is derived under either the in-fill asymptotic scheme or the double asymptotic scheme. Extensive simulations show that the proposed theory performs well in finite samples. Two …

The Information In Asset Fire Sales, Sheng Huang, Matthew Ringgenberg, Zhe Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Asset prices remain depressed for several years following mutual fund fire sales. We show that this price pressure is partly due to asymmetric information which leads to an adverse selection problem for arbitrageurs. After a flow shock, fund managers do not scale down their portfolio, rather, they choose to sell a subset of low-quality stocks that subsequently underperform. In other words, fund managers have stock selling ability. Our findings suggest an explanation for the tendency of asset prices to remain depressed following fire sales: information asymmetries make it difficult for arbitrageurs to disentangle pure price pressure from negative information.

Strong Consistency Of Spectral Clustering For Stochastic Block Models, Liangjun Su, Wuyi Wang, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we prove the strong consistency of several methods based on the spectral clustering techniques that are widely used to study the community detection problem in stochastic block models (SBMs). We show that under some weak conditions on the minimal degree, the number of communities, and the eigenvalues of the probability block matrix, the K-means algorithm applied to the eigenvectors of the graph Laplacian associated with its first few largest eigenvalues can classify all individuals into the true community uniformly correctly almost surely. Extensions to both regularized spectral clustering and degree-corrected SBMs are also considered. We illustrate the …

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2019 August, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

On balance, our overall interpretation of the multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, China, US, Japan and Euro Area (i.e., India’s economy appears to be the least at-risk, while the Euro Area might be the most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risks to GDP growth to be tilted to the downside in 2019 and 2020 followed by a more balanced growth environment in 2021. But participants seem to lean toward a more balanced risk assessment on headline inflation from 2019 through 2021, with the exception of the Euro Area, where a modest …

Quantitative Effects Of Two Kinds Of Robots In A Neo-Classical Growth Model, Hoang Phuong Que Vu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Advances in artificial intelligence are leading to many revolutions in robotics. How will the arrival of robots impact the growth of the economy, the workers' wage, consumption, and lifetime welfare? This dissertation attempts to answer this question by presenting a standard neoclassical growth model with two different kinds of robots, reflecting two ways that robots can transform the labor market. The first chapter introduces additive robots- a perfect substitution for human labor, while the second chapter employs multiplicative robots- a type of robots that augments human labor. The prevailing main result is that even in the case with no population …

Time-Varying Contemporaneous Spillovers During The European Debt Crisis, Marinela Adriana Finta, Bart Frijins, Alireza Tourani-Rad

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper considers contemporaneous spillover effects between Germany and four peripheral European countries that were most affected by the European Debt Crisis, and provides evidence of bidirectional spillovers among these equity markets. We document that there is asymmetry and time variation in contemporaneous spillovers. Particularly, contemporaneous return spillovers from Germany to the peripheral equity markets is higher than the other way around. We show that European Debt Crisis led to a decrease in the contemporaneous spillover effects.

To Extubate Or Not To Extubate: Risk Factors For Extubation Failure And Deterioration With Further Mechanical Ventilation, Jingui Xie, Guang Cheng, Zhichao Zheng, Haidong Luo, Oon Cheong Ooi

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Background: Extubation is a critical step in the intensive care unit (ICU). In this study, we aim to investigate the risk factors for both extubation failure and deterioration with further mechanical ventilation (MV). Methods: Data were collected from a cardiothoracic ICU in a tertiary hospital. The risk factors for extubation failure and deterioration with further MV were investigated by multivariate logistic regression. Results: A total of 676 patients were enrolled in the study. Patients with extubation failure had a longer ICU length of stay and a higher mortality rate than patients without extubation failure. An age greater than 65 years, …

Industry 4.0: Challenges And Opportunities In Different Countries, Keng Siau, Yingrui Xi, Cui Zou

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Along with the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI), cyber-physical systems (CPSs), big data analytics, and cloud computing, Industry 4.0 — a subset of the fourth Industrial Revolution — has started to emerge and take root in many countries. Many expect that Industry 4.0 will be transformative and revolutionary for multiple industries and countries. Its impact will be much more significant than those of Industry 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0. Most studies and papers on Industry 4.0 have examined its impact on various industries, jobs, and organizations. In this article, we investigate the impact of Industry 4.0 on countries and groups …

Mortgage Dollar Roll, Zhaogang Song, Haoxiang Zhu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Mortgage dollar roll, the most common financing strategy for agency MBS, differs from repo in that the returned collateral can differ from those received. Also, MBS ownership changes hands in the funding period. We show that dollar roll “specialness,” how much implied financing rates fall below MBS repo rates, (1) increases in the value of the cheapest-to-deliver option, (2) decreases in the leverage of primary dealers, (3) decreases in prepayment risk exposure during the financing period, and (4) decreases in MBS returns. The Federal Reserve’s dollar roll sales in quantitative easing operations are associated with lower specialness.

Hypothesis Testing, Specification Testing And Model Selection Based On The Mcmc Output Using R, Yong Li, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

This chapter overviews several MCMC-based test statistics for hypothesis testing andspecification testing and MCMC-based model selection criteria developed in recentyears. The statistics for hypothesis testing can be viewed as the MCMC version ofthe “trinity” of test statistics based in maximum likelihood (ML), namely, the likelihoodratio (LR) test, the Lagrange multiplier (LM) test, and the Wald test. The model selection criteria correspond to two predictive distributions. One of them can be viewed asthe MCMC version of widely used information criterion, AIC. The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics and model selection criteria are discussed. The test statisticsand model selection criteria are …

How China’S Ageing Population Will Impact On The Rest Of Us, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

The world’s second largest economy is getting old before it gets rich

Location, Location, Location? Not Any More, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

The retail industry faces a future where convenience and value-added services will be the deciding factors

Forecasting In Blockchain-Based Local Energy Markets, Michael Kostmann, Wolfgang Karl Hardle

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

Increasingly volatile and distributed energy production challenges traditional mechanisms to manage grid loads and price energy. Local energy markets (LEMs) may be a response to those challenges as they can balance energy production and consumption locally and may lower energy costs for consumers. Blockchain-based LEMs provide a decentralized market to local energy consumer and prosumers. They implement a market mechanism in the form of a smart contract without the need for a central authority coordinating the market. Recently proposed blockchain-based LEMs use auction designs to match future demand and supply. Thus, such blockchain-based LEMs rely on accurate short-term forecasts of …

Transparency And Dealer Networks: Evidence From The Initiation Of Post-Trade Reporting In The Mortgage Backed Security Market, Paul Schultz, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine the introduction of mandatory post-trade reporting in the To-Be-Announced mortgage-backed securities market. With post-trade reporting, trading costs fell for institutional investors. Trading costs declined more for investors’ trades with peripheral dealers than for their trades with core dealers. Peripheral dealers’ market share dropped after the introduction of post-trade reporting, suggesting that opacity was protecting inefficient high-cost dealers. Interdealer trades and volume declined as transparency made it easier to find natural counterparties. Relationships between dealers became less important and, after controlling for the number of trades, dealers used more counterparties in interdealer trades.

Policy Effectiveness And Capacity: Two Sides Of The Design Coin, Ishani Mukherjee, Azad S. Bali

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Policy capacity and effectiveness are two themes that have opened new pathways for academic and empirical enquiry throughout the policy sciences. In the contemporary discourse of policy design, effectiveness has taken on a more foundational meaning that goes beyond what is understood as only the attainment of specific policy goals. Rather, it has come to occupy a central position in the study of policy design, signifying the broader logic of deliberate policy action used to articulate policy problems and present alternative ways of addressing them. Effectiveness thus signals both effectual processes as well as successful policy outcomes. However, what constitutes …

Tail Risk Concerns Everywhere, George P. Gao, Xiaomeng Lu, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We show that the beta with respect to an index of global ex ante tail risk concerns (��ℝ����), which we construct using out-of-the-money options on multiple global assets, negatively drives cross-sectional return variations across asset classes, including international equity indices, foreign currencies, and government bond futures. The pricing power of ��ℝ���� becomes stronger when more asset-class-level tail risk concerns are incorporated in the index construction. ��ℝ���� also dominates asset-class-level tail risk concerns in pricing assets within each asset class. These evidences imply that the pricing effect of tail risk concerns works predominantly as a global channel. The ��ℝ���� pricing effect …

Equivalence Of Stochastic And Deterministic Mechanisms, Yi-Chun Chen, Jiangtao Li, Jiangtao Li, Yeneng Sun

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider a general social choice environment that has multiple agents, a finite set of alternatives, independent types, and atomless type distribution. We show that for any Bayesian incentive compatible mechanism, there exists an equivalent deterministic mechanism that (1) is Bayesian incentive compatible; (2) delivers the same interim expected allocation probabilities and the same interim expected utilities for all agents; and (3) delivers the same ex ante expected social surplus. This result holds in settings with a rich class of utility functions, multidimensional types, interdependent valuations, and in settings without monetary transfers. To prove our result, we develop a novel …

Limit Theory For Moderate Deviation From Integrated Garch Processes, Yubo Tao

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops the limit theory of the GARCH(1,1) process that moderately deviates from IGARCH process towards both stationary and explosive regimes. The asymptotic theory extends Berkes et al. (2005) by allowing the parameters to have a slower rate of convergence. The results can be applied to unit root test for processes with mildly-integrated GARCH innovations (e.g. Boswijk (2001), Cavaliere and Taylor (2007, 2009)) and deriving limit theory of estimators for models involving mildly-integrated GARCH processes (e.g. Jensen and Rahbek (2004), Francq and Zakoïan (2012, 2013).

Random Mechanism Design On Multidimensional Domains, Shurojit Chatterji, Huaxia Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study random mechanism design in an environment where the set of alternatives has a Cartesian product structure. We first show that all generalized random dictatorships are strategy-proof on a minimally rich domain if and only if the domain is a top-separable domain. We next generalize the notion of connectedness (Monjardet, 2009) to establish a particular class of top-separable domains: connected domains, and show that in the class of minimally rich and connected domains, the multidimensional single-peakedness restriction is necessary and sufficient for the design of a flexible random social choice function that is unanimous and strategy-proof. Such a flexible …

Improved Marginal Likelihood Estimation Via Power Posteriors And Importance Sampling, Yong Li, Nianling Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The power-posterior method of Friel and Pettitt (2008) has been used to estimate the marginal likelihoods of competing Bayesian models. In this paper it is shown that the Bernstein-von Mises (BvM) theorem holds for the power posteriors under regularity conditions. Due to the BvM theorem, the power posteriors, when adjusted by the square root of the corresponding grid points, converge to the same normal distribution as the original posterior distribution, facilitating the implementation of importance sampling for the purpose of estimating the marginal likelihood. Unlike the power-posterior method that requires repeated posterior sampling from the power posteriors, the new method …

A Quantile-Based Asset Pricing Model, Tomohiro Ando, Jushan Bai, Mitohide Nishimura, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

It is well-known that the standard estimators of the risk premium in asset pricing models are biased when some price factors are omitted. To address this problem, we propose a novel quantile-based asset pricing model and a new estimation method. Our new asset pricing model allows for the risk premium to be quantile-dependent and our estimation method is applicable to models with unobserved factors. It avoids biased estimation results and always ensures a positive risk premium. The method is applied to the U.S., Japan, and U.K. stock markets. The empirical analysis demonstrates the clear benefits of our approach.

Panel Threshold Regressions With Latent Group Structures, Ke Miao, Liangjun Su, Wendun Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we consider the least squares estimation of a panel structure threshold re-gression (PSTR) model where both the slope coefficients and threshold parameters may exhibit latent group structures. We study the asymptotic properties of the estimators of the latent group structure and the slope and threshold coefficients. We show that we can estimate the latent group structure correctly with probability approaching 1 and the estimators of the slope and threshold coefficients are asymptotically equivalent to the infeasible estimators that are obtained as if the true group structures were known. We study likelihood-ratio-based inferences on the group-specific threshold parameters …