Economics Commons^™

On Factor Models With Random Missing: Em Estimation, Inference, And Cross Validation, Sainan Jin, Ke Miao, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider the estimation and inference in approximate factor models with random missing values. We show that with the low rank structure of the common component, we can estimate the factors and factor loadings consistently with the missing values replaced by zeros. We establish the asymptotic distributions of the resulting estimators and those based on the EM algorithm. We also propose a cross validation-based method to determine the number of factors in factor models with or without missing values and justify its consistency. Simulations demonstrate that our cross validation method is robust to fat tails in the error distribution and …

On The Decomposability Of Fractional Allocations, Shurojit Chatterji, Peng Liu

SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series

A common practice in dealing with the allocation of indivisible objects is to treat them as infinitely divisible and specify a fractional allocation, which is then implemented as a lottery on integer allocations that are feasible. The question we study is whether an arbitrary fractional allocation can be decomposed as a lottery on an arbitrary set of feasible integer allocations. The main result is a characterization of decomposable fractional allocations, that is obtained by transforming the decomposability problem into a maximum flow problem. We also provide a separate necessary condition for decomposability.

Three Essays On Empirical Asset Pricing, Xueying Bian

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The dissertation consists of three essays on empirical asset pricing. The first chapter proposes a novel inter-firm link - similar employee satisfaction. Based on the employee satisfaction data on Glassdoor, the returns of similar employee satisfaction (SES) firms are documented to predict focal firm stock returns. A long-short portfolio sorted on the lagged returns of SES firms yields the Fama-French six-factor alpha of 135 bps per month. The observed predictability cannot be explained by risk-based arguments or subsumed by other known inter-firm momentums. According to the international tests, we observe stronger return predictability in countries with more flexible labor markets. …

Footprints Of A Winning Idea: Three Decades Of The Human Development Paradigm (1990-2019), Devin K. Joshi

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

The rise and fall of international development paradigms has long captured the interest of scholars, but interpreting whether a paradigm is winning or losing depends largely on how we measure its success. In this research note, we contribute to this debate by assessing the influence of development paradigms via comparative bibliometric analysis. Focusing on the human development and capabilities approach (HDCA) promoted by the Human Development Reports (HDRs) of the United Nations, our analysis reveals how the HDCA has emerged to become an influential paradigm of development over the last three decades. As the HDCA has fared impressively well vis-à-vis …

Essays On Empirical Asset Pricing, Zilin Chen

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The dissertation consists of three chapters on empirical asset pricing. The first chapter examines whether the cross-sectional variation in private subsidiaries’ information disclosure predicts the cross-sectional dispersion in future equity returns of public parent firms. Information disclosure on private subsidiaries is not mandatory for public firms in the U.S., and thus these subsidiaries could be a good choice for public firms to hide bad news. We construct a private subsidiaries’ information disclosure (PSID) measure and find that a value-weighted portfolio that longs stocks in the highest PSID quintile and shorts stocks in the lowest PSID quintile yields a Fama and …

Study On The Ideas For Developing M&A Funds In China In The Context Of Economic Transformation, Xiaoming Song

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

M & A fund is one category of private equity investment fund. In the past 25 years, private equity fund has grown into a considerable asset section. Since 2008, China's economy has experienced the pounding pain of structural transformation multiplied with other challenges, e.g. international economy’s lack of growth momentum, increased trade friction, aging population and so on. The trade friction between China and the United States has further exacerbated. Against this backdrop, from September 2018, there was a significant shift in the domestic central government’s economic policy, particularly the capital market policy, has undergone major changes with the repressed …

Selective Engagement? Future Path For Us-China Economic Relations And Its Implications, Heng Wang

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

The US-China economic interactions will have profound ramifications for the world. The article explores the following questions: what is the path forward for US-China economic interactions? What are its implications? It argues that selective engagement is the possible future path for US-China economic interactions. Selective engagement involves selective focuses, which currently are an unprecedented emphasis on market access, and delegalized implementation. Selective engagement contrasts sharply with deep free trade agreements that focus on regulatory disciplines and legalized dispute settlement. Selective engagement carries profound implications, ranging from rule vacuum and inconsistency, increased protection and economic disintegration, to the marginalization of multilateralism. …

A Hybrid Equity Release Plan For Retirement Financing, Koon Shing Kwong, Yiu Kuen Tse, Junxing Chay

Research Collection School Of Economics

There are two main equity release plans for retirement financing: reverse mortgage plan and home reversion plan. Both plans entitle the homeowners not only to release cash from their properties but also to allow them living there for life. In the lease buyback scheme (LBS) recently introduced in Singapore, the home owner sells the tail-end of the property lease to the government in exchange for a cash payment upfront. Unlike the two main equity release plans, the LBS only allows the owner to stay in the property for the front part of the lease but not for life.

In this …

The Evolution Of Income Risk And Consumption Insurance In South Korea Over The Last Two Decades, Taehyun Ahn, Chung Gu Chee, Seonghoon Kim

Research Collection School Of Economics

Using data from the Korea Labor Income Panel Study, we study the evolution of income risk and consumption insurance against transitory and permanent income shocks in South Korea over the last two decades. We find a decreasing trend in both income and consumption risks. Furthermore, we estimate that 47.6% of permanent income shocks and 9.8% of transitory income shocks pass through to consumption. We also provide evidence of substantial improvements in consumption insurance among the less educated and the older cohort nearing retirement. Our results suggest that recent developments of social safety net and welfare system may have played an …

Government Management Capacities And The Containment Of Covid-19: A Repeated Cross-Sectional Study Across Chinese Cities, Wenchao Li, Jing Li, Junjian Yi

Research Collection School Of Economics

Objectives: Better understanding of the dynamics of the COVID-19 (2019 novel coronavirus disease) pandemic to curb its spread is now a global imperative. While travel restrictions and control measures have been shown to limit the spread of the disease, the effectiveness of the enforcement of those measures should depend on the strength of the government. Whether, and how, the government plays a role in fighting the disease, however, has not been investigated. Here, we show that government management capacities are critical to the containment of the disease. Setting: We conducted a statistical analysis based on cross-city comparisons within China. China …

Teaching In The Right Context: Textbook Supply Program, Language, And Vocabulary Ability In Vietnam, Tomoki Fujii, Maki Nakajima, Sijia Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

While past two decades have witnessed a remarkable educational progress in Vietnam, ethnic minority children consistently lagged behind ethnic majority children in academic performance. The government of Vietnam has stepped up efforts to assist ethnic minority students in their learning by lowering the linguistic and cultural barriers they face. Among such efforts is the textbook supply program, and we examine its impact on the learning of children proxied by vocabulary test. We apply difference-in-differences estimation to four rounds of the Young Lives data between 2006 and 2015 in order to investigate how the textbook supply program narrowed the gap between …

Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Models With Correlated Random Effects, Liyao Li, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, M-estimation and inference methods are developed for spatial dynamic panel data models with correlated random effects, based on short panels. The unobserved individual-specific effects are assumed to be correlated with the observed time-varying regressors linearly or in a linearizable way, giving the so-called correlated random effects model, which allows the estimation of effects of time-invariant regressors. The unbiased estimating functions are obtained by adjusting the conditional quasi-scores given the initial observations, leading to M-estimators that are consistent, asymptotically normal, and free from the initial conditions except the process starting time. By decomposing the estimating functions …

Determining The Number Of Communities In Degree-Corrected Stochastic Block Models, Shujie Ma, Liangjun Su, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose to estimate the number of communities in degree-corrected stochastic block models based on a pseudo likelihood ratio. For estimation, we consider a spectral clustering together with binary segmentation method. This approach guarantees an upper bound for the pseudo likelihood ratio statistic when the model is over-fitted. We also derive its limiting distribution when the model is under-fitted. Based on these properties, we establish the consistency of our estimator for the true number of communities. Developing these theoretical properties require a mild condition on the average degree: growing at a rate faster than log(n), where n is the number …

On The Decomposability Of Fractional Allocations, Shurojit Chatterji, Peng Liu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A common practice in dealing with the allocation of indivisible objects is to treat them as infinitely divisible and specify a fractional allocation, which is then implemented as a lottery on integer allocations that are feasible. The question we study is whether an arbitrary fractional allocation can be decomposed as a lottery on an arbitrary set of feasible integer allocations. The main result is a characterization of decomposable fractional allocations, that is obtained by transforming the decomposability problem into a maximum flow problem. We also provide a separate necessary condition for decomposability.

Earnings Momentum Meets Short-Term Return Reversal, Zhaobo Zhu, Licheng Sun, Jun Tu, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of a joint strategy that exploits fundamental-based momentum and return-based reversal anomalies. This joint strategy is motivated by two considerations. First, reversal can serve as a natural hedge to momentum. Second, both fundamental and price-related information can contribute to stock return predictability. Consequently, we propose a new joint strategy that synthesises both earnings momentum and short-term reversal. We find that this joint strategy generates considerable economic gains and outperforms the sum of profits from two individual anomalies. Moreover, the proposed strategy appears to be quite robust, generating stable and persistent profits across different market conditions.

Asset Classes, Nicolas L. Jacquet

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a theory of endogenous differences in liquidity of assets based on the interaction between differences in the risk of assets and differences in liquidity needs of investors. An equilibrium of the model, which always exists and is unique, displays a class structure, where investors’ types sort themselves across different types of assets. I also provide a detailed analysis of the possible types of sorting and of the consequences for the cross-sectional properties of asset prices and their velocity. The framework can also be useful to think about what constitute a ""light-to-liquidity" and a "safe asset".

Mildly Explosive Autoregression With Anti-Persistent Errors, Yiu Lim Lui, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

An asymptotic distribution is derived for the least squares (LS) estimate of a first‐order autoregression with a mildly explosive root and anti‐persistent errors. While the sample moments depend on the Hurst parameter asymptotically, the Cauchy limiting distribution theory remains valid for the LS estimates in the model without intercept and a model with an asymptotically negligible intercept. Monte Carlo studies are designed to check the precision of the Cauchy distribution in finite samples. An empirical study based on the monthly NASDAQ index highlights the usefulness of the model and the new limiting distribution.

Mildly Explosive Autoregression With Anti-Persistent Errors, Yui Lim Lui, Jun Yu, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

An asymptotic distribution is derived for the least squares (LS) estimate of a first-order autoregression with a mildly explosive root and anti-persistent errors. While the sample moments depend on the Hurst parameter asymptotically, the Cauchy limiting distribution theory remains valid for the LS estimates in the model without intercept and a model with an asymptotically negligible intercept. Monte Carlo studies are designed to check the precision of the Cauchy distribution in finite samples. An empirical study based on the monthly NASDAQ index highlights the usefulness of the model and the new limiting distribution.

Regional Economic Impacts Of China's High-Speed Rail Development And Its Institutional Challenges, Hankun Zhao

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This article studies the impact of connecting to high-speed rail (HSR) network on regional development and the replication and sustainability of China’s GIUR system, aiming to summarize the experience of China’s HSR, which can provide several policy references for developing countries. This article conducts two research: (1) explore the impact of connecting to HSR network on the urban industrial structure, urban creativity and urban-rural income gap of cities in different regions and cities with heterogeneous locations along the HSR lines in the long and short term; (2) explore the advantages and disadvantages of the Government-Industry-University-Research (GIUR) system in the process …

Change In Outbreak Epicentre And Its Impact On The Importation Risks Of Covid-19 Progression: A Modelling Study, Oyelola A. Adegboye, Adeshina I. Adekunle, Anton Pak, Ezra Gayawan, Denis H. Y. Leung, Diana P. Rojas, Emma S. Mcbryde, Damon P. Eisen

Research Collection School Of Economics

Background: The outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) that was first detected in the city of Wuhan, China has now spread to every inhabitable continent, but now the attention has shifted from China to other epicentres. This study explored early assessment of the influence of spatial proximities and travel patterns from Italy on the further spread of SARS-CoV-2 worldwide. Methods: Using data on the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and air travel data between countries, we applied a stochastic meta-population model to estimate the global spread of COVID-19. Pearson's correlation, semi-variogram, and Moran's Index were used to …

Japanese Monetary Policy And Its Impact On Stock Market Implied Volatility During Pleasant And Unpleasant Weather, Marinela Adriana Finta

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the effect of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting releases on the intraday dynamics of the Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index and its futures during pleasant and unpleasant weather. We show that at the time of a monetary policy release when the temperature is pleasant, there is a significant decline in Japanese equities’ implied volatility and futures, which lasts for about 10 minutes and 5 minutes, respectively. This decline is longer and exhibits a greater variation when releases occur during cold days. Finally, we emphasize the achievable economic profits and losses, given the reaction of Nikkei VI futures to the …

The Effects Of Income On Health: Evidence From Lottery Wins In Singapore, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh

Research Collection School Of Economics

We estimate the causal effects of household income on self-reported health status by exploiting random variations in the amount of lottery prizes won. We find that a S$10,000 (US$7,245) increase in income via lottery wins improves individuals’ health by a standard deviation of 0.18. As possible mechanisms, we find that lottery wins increase household consumption spending and improve overall life satisfaction, but do not change healthcare spending, labor supply, and risky health behavior. Previous studies, which focused on the health effects of lottery prizes in Western European countries with strong social safety nets, do not find positive effects other than …

The Role Of Macroeconomic And Policy Uncertainty In Density Forecast Dispersion, You Li, Anthony S. Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

We explore empirically the role of macroeconomic and policy uncertainty in explaining dispersion in professional forecasters’ density forecasts, and in explaining individual forecaster uncertainty (defined as the uncertainty expressed by individual forecasters in their density forecasts). We focus on US real output growth and inflation, using data from the Philadelphia Fed’s quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), 1992-2016. We find that dispersion in individual density forecasts is related to macroeconomic uncertainty, especially in longer horizon forecasts, but not policy or forecaster uncertainty. There is also little evidence that forecaster uncertainty reflects macroeconomic or policy uncertainty.

On Incentive Compatible, Individually Rational Public Good Provision Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Cuiling Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper characterizes mechanisms satisfying incentive compatibility and individual rationality in the classical public good provision problem. Many papers in the literature obtain the results in the so-called standard model of ex ante identical agents with a continuous, closed interval of types. The main contribution of this paper is the characterization of the budget-surplus maximizing mechanism satisfying incentive compatibility and individual rationality (Theorem 1 for Bayesian implementation and Theorem 3 for dominant strategy implementation) that applies to a finite discretization over the standard model. Making use of the proposed budget-surplus maximizing mechanisms, we show that some known results do not …

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2021 February, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The latest survey results suggest that the five largest economies collectively is projected to snapback to almost 6% in 2021, a modest upgrade from the August median, following an unprecedented preliminary contraction of roughly 4% last year (in real GDP terms). The 2022 median growth forecast of slightly above 4.5%, while slower, is still respectable, outstripping its pre-COVID 10-year average pace by more than half a percentage point. The aggregate upgrade in 2021, however, obscures the lopsided nature and highly uneven contour of the ongoing recovery. The bulk of the upward revision to growth was mainly due to IN (to …

Learning By Supplying And Competition Threat, Yi-Fan Chen, Alireza Naghavi, Shin-Kun Peng

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study proposes a model of learning by supplying in an international outsourcing framework, where the supplier of a relationship-specific input can reverse engineer and become a competitor to its partner in the final goods market. Transmitting knowledge to a more capable supplier therefore creates competitive threat despite the benefits it brings within an outsourcing relationship. In particular, in markets with less differentiated products and for standard inputs that require less knowledge to be shared, choosing an intermediate capability level supplier prompts a strategic expansion of output to deter supplier entry in the final goods market, resulting in higher profits …

Pregnancy Persistently Reduces Alcohol Purchases: Causal Evidence From Scanner Data, Aljoscha Janssen, Elle Parslow

Research Collection School Of Economics

We analyze household-level changes in alcohol consumption in response to pregnancy. Using scanner data, we identify households with a pregnant household member. Within an event study and a dynamic difference-in-differences estimation, we find that during a first pregnancy, households reduce their alcohol purchases by 36%. After pregnancy, purchases of alcohol are 34% lower than before pregnancy. We do not find any effect during the second pregnancy. One possible explanation for our result is that lower consumption during pregnancy changes habits and reduces consumption in the long term. We discuss other explanations and comment on policy implications.

The Economics Of Hedge Fund Startups: Theory And Empirical Evidence, Charles Cao, Grant Farnsworth, Hong Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines how market frictions influence the managerial incentives and organizational structure of new hedge funds. We develop a stylized model in which new managers search for accredited investors and have stronger incentives to acquire managerial skill when encountering low investor demand. Fund families endogenously arise to mitigate frictions and weaken the performance incentives of affiliated new funds. Empirically, based on a TASS-HFR-BarclayHedge merged database, we find that ex ante identified cold inceptions facing low investor demand outperform existing hedge funds and hot inceptions facing high demand and that cold stand-alone inceptions outperform all types of family-affiliated inceptions.

Trust And Retirement Preparedness: Evidence From Singapore, Benedict S. K. Koh, Olivia S. Mitchell, Joelle H. Fong

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Trust is an essential component of any financial system, and distrust can undermine savings and economic growth. Our study draws on the Singapore Life Panel to assess how trust ties to older respondents’ (1) pension plan participation and withdrawals; (2) life, health, and long-term care insurance holdings; and (3) stock market engagement. We show that the widely-used ‘trust in people’ question is uncorrelated with household behaviours related to retirement preparedness. Instead, trust in private and public financial representatives is positively associated with pension savings, investments, and insurance holdings. Financial literacy also plays an important and consistent role in retirement decision-making.

Identifying Latent Group Structures In Nonlinear Panels, Wuyi Wang, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a procedure to identify latent group structures in nonlinear panel data models where some regression coefficients are heterogeneous across groups but homogeneous within a group and the group number and membership are unknown. To identify the group structures, we consider the order statistics for the preliminary unconstrained consistent estimators of the regression coefficients and translate the problem of classification into the problem of break detection. Then we extend the sequential binary segmentation algorithm of Bai (1997) for break detection from the time series setup to the panel data framework. We demonstrate that our method is able to identify …