Economics Commons^™

Weak Identification Of Long Memory With Implications For Inference, Jia Li, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper explores weak identification issues arising in commonly used models of economic and financial time series. Two highly popular configurations are shown to be asymptotically observationally equivalent: one with long memory and weak autoregressive dynamics, the other with antipersistent shocks and a near-unit autoregressive root. We develop a data-driven semiparametric and identification-robust approach to inference that reveals such ambiguities and documents the prevalence of weak identification in many realized volatility and trading volume series. The identification-robust empirical evidence generally favors long memory dynamics in volatility and volume, a conclusion that is corroborated using social-media news flow data.

Internal Capital Markets And Predictability In Complex Ownership Firms, Ran Chang, Angelica Gonzalez, Sergei Sarkissian, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using global cross-firm ownership data, we find that both stock returns and cash-flow news of ownership-linked firms predict focal firm's returns for all types of ownership structures: subsidiary-parent, parent-subsidiary, subsidiary-subsidiary, and parent-parent. This effect, observed only after the establishment of cross-firm ownership, is not subsumed by focal firm or industry momentum, or alternative inter-firm relations, including customer-supplier links and shared analyst coverage. Our findings are explained by mispricing due to internal capital markets - a mechanism unique to complex ownership firms. Higher internal capital market activity among ownership-linked firms also induces larger investments and lower external financing of the focal …

Start-Up Firms And Corporate Culture: Evidence From Advertised Corporate Culture, Jungho Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

I document advertised corporate culture among start-up firms from an online job board. Two corporate-culture types emerge, one that concerns the well-being of em- ployees (worker-centered culture) and another that emphasizes other values, such as cus- tomers, firms, and markets (firm-centered culture). The worker-centered culture attracts 20% more applications than the other culture type. Firms advertising the worker-centered culture exploit worker preference by paying 5% lower salaries than measurably similar jobs. Using a standard model of business creation, I show financially constrained start- ups are incentivized to advocate popular culture, even though doing so is not optimal without financial constraints.

Win: How Public Entrepreneurship Can Transform The Developing World, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

This book provides a story about the Infrastructure Development Company Limited (IDCOL) written from the perspective of its first full-time Chief Executive Officer. For those who have never heard of IDCOL, it was created in 1997 by the Government of Bangladesh as a nonbank financial institution to fill the financial gap for developing medium- to large-scale infrastructure. IDCOL had a very modest start with a nominal paid-up capital of less than US$2,000, but its capital, equity, and reserves increased to US$110 million by 2020. During this massive expansion, IDCOL met various challenges. This book gives an account of these challenges …

A Consistent Specification Test For Dynamic Quantile Models, Peter Horvath, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao, Andrew J. Patton

Research Collection School Of Economics

Correct specification of a conditional quantile model implies that a particular conditional moment is equal to zero. We nonparametrically estimate the conditional moment function via series regression and test whether it is identically zero using uniform functional inference. Our approach is theoretically justified via a strong Gaussian approximation for statistics of growing dimensions in a general time series setting. We propose a novel bootstrap method in this nonstandard context and show that it significantly outperforms the benchmark asymptotic approximation in finite samples, especially for tail quantiles such as Value-at-Risk (VaR). We use the proposed new test to study the VaR …

Growing A Mapletree, Hiew Yoon Khong

Perspectives@SMU

By focusing on recycling capital and re-seeding its portfolio, Singapore’s Mapletree Investments have moved beyond the island and into the global market

Essays On International Trade, Shenxi Song

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Reciprocity is a key principle governing the negotiations under the GATT/WTO agreement, which calls for a balance of concessions among the WTO members. In recent years, however, various politicians across the world have voiced concerns about their country's excessive obligations under the WTO and a lack of reciprocation by their trading partners. The objective in the first chapter is to evaluate the degree to which the pattern of applied tariffs across WTO members deviates from a balanced-concession condition. To this end, we employ a quantitative trade model and use alternative definitions of reciprocity (based on market access or welfare) to …

Labor Market Participation, Income Distribution, And Welfare Gains From Trade, Pao-Li Chang, Yi-Fan Chen, Wen-Tai Hsu

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a general equilibrium trade model where households with skill heterogeneity choose between home production and working on the labor market. Unlike most of the trade literature, the labor supply is elastic and is heterogeneous across households. As a result, trade affects labor participation, income, and welfare differently across households. We show that, when market goods and home goods are substitutes, households with lower skill levels expe-rience higher proportional increase to their income, while households with higher skill levels experience higher proportional increase in welfare. We further show that elastic labor supply preserves the extensive margin of welfare gains …

A Black-Scholes User's Guide To The Bachelier Model, Jaehyuk Choi, Minsuk Kwak, Chyng Wen Tee, Yumeng Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

To cope with the negative oil futures price caused by the COVID-19 recession, global commodity futures exchanges switched the option model from Black-Scholes to Bachelier in April 2020. This study reviews the literature on Bachelier's pioneering option pricing model and summarizes the practical results on volatility conversion, risk management, stochastic volatility, and barrier options pricing to facilitate the model transition. In particular, using the displaced Black-Scholes model as a model family with the Black-Scholes and Bachelier models as special cases, we not only connect the two models but also present a continuous spectrum of model choices.

Variation And Efficiency Of High-Frequency Betas, Congshan Zhang, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, George Tauchen

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the efficient estimation of betas from high-frequency return data on a fixed time interval. Under an assumption of equal diffusive and jump betas, we derive the semiparametric efficiency bound for estimating the common beta and develop an adaptive estimator that attains the efficiency bound. We further propose a Hausman type test for deciding whether the common beta assumption is true from the high-frequency data. In our empirical analysis we provide examples of stocks and time periods for which a common market beta assumption appears true and ones for which this is not the case. We further quantify …

Probabilistic Fixed Ballot Rules And Hybrid Domains, Shurojit Chatterji, Souvik Roy, Soumyarup Sadhukhan, Arunava Sen, Huaxia Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study a class of preference domains that satisfies the familiar properties of minimal richness, diversity and no-restoration. We show that a specific preference restriction, hybridness, has been embedded in these domains so that the preferences are single-peaked at the “extremes” and unrestricted in the “middle”. We also study the structure of strategy-proof and unanimous Random Social Choice Functions on these domains. We show them to be special cases of probabilistic fixed ballot rules (introduced by Ehlers, Peters, and Storcken (2002)).

Labor Market Institutions And The Incidence Of Payroll Taxation, Jinyoung Kim, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh

Research Collection School Of Economics

Despite the unambiguous predictions of the canonical model of a competitive labor market, empirical studies of the labor market effects of payroll taxation provide conflicting evidence. We estimate the labor market impacts of payroll taxation in Singapore, the country with the most competitive and flexible labor market among the countries investigated in the literature. By exploiting the sharp reduction in payroll tax rate when workers turn 60, we find that the reduced payroll tax rate in Singapore has a large effect on wages without changes in employment. Our meta-analysis shows consistent evidence that varying degrees of labor market competitiveness across …

Inflation And Ukraine War Make It Challenging For Our Beloved Value Stores To Survive, Aurobindo Ghosh, Taimur Baig

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In a joint commentary, SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) and Principal Investigator of DBS-SKBI Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations Project Aurobindo Ghosh and Chief Economist and Managing Director at DBS Bank Dr Taimur Baig discussed how global inflationary pressures and rising commodity prices due to war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia are culminating into a perfect storm and making it challenging for value stores to survive. They also gave advice on what value stores can do to survive this perfect storm.

Essays On Information Diffusion And Stock Market Efficiency & Analyst Style, Zuben Jin

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The dissertation consists of three chapters on information diffusion and stock market efficiency and analyst style. The first chapter examines the asset pricing implications of investors’ inattention to non-obvious firm relatedness hidden in earnings calls. This chapter documents that the overlap in attention allocation over various business aspects serves as a time-sensitive proxy for firm relatedness. By employing the unsupervised topic modelling methodology, I characterize the attention allocation of earnings conference call participants (executives, investors and analysts) over topics discussed. I construct a novel cross-firm topic similarity measure that captures difficultto-observe and time-varying firm relatedness compared with existing peer-firm classification …

Information Acquisition And Market Friction, Bo Sang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

My dissertation consists of three papers related to information diversity, acquisition, and asymmetry. One part of the dissertation explores the implications of interactions among different market participants and subsequent price efficiency in the stock market. The empirical findings indicate the information diversity between individuals and institutional investors, as well as an important channel for retail investors to obtain useful information – through insider filings. The remaining part investigates the information asymmetry between issuers and naive investors in the cryptocurrency market. In Chapter 2, I aggregate trading signals from hedge funds and retail investors, in order to examine their information diversity …

The Gatt/Wto Welfare Effects: 1950–2015, Pao-Li Chang, Wei Jin, Kefang Yao

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper evaluates the welfare effects of GATT/WTO-induced reductions in tariffs, vari-able and fixed trade costs, based on identified direct effects of membership indicators on trade flows via nonparametric matching estimations. The identification does not require the use of tariff data, which permits a comprehensive evaluation of the welfare impact of GATT/WTO for a long panel since its inception (1950–2015) of as many as 180 economies. The results indicate substantial (but highly dispersed) welfare gains across members of different development stages and increasing welfare losses of nonmembers in later decades by staying outside the system. An extensive set of robustness …

Investor Sentiment And Paradigm Shifts In Equity Premium Forecasting, Liya Chu, Kai Li, Tony Xue-Zhong He, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study investigates the impact of investor sentiment on excess equity return forecasting. A high (low) investor sentiment may weaken the connection between fundamental economic (behavioral-based non-fundamental) predictors and market returns. We find that although fundamental variables can be strong predictors when sentiment is low, they tend to lose their predictive power when investor sentiment is high. Non-fundamental predictors perform well during high-sentiment periods while their predictive ability deteriorates when investor sentiment is low. These paradigm shifts in equity return forecasting provide a key to understanding and resolving the lack of predictive power for both fundamental and non-fundamental variables debated …

Why Commonality Persists?, Chyng Wen Tee, Raja Velu, Zhaoque Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We show that order flows do not exhibit predictive power on asset returns, and their relationships have been static over time. We use a reduced-rank regression formulation to model both returns and the order flows as endogenous variables, and use investors' sentiment and attention as exogenous factors. We provide empiricalevidence to demonstrate that cross-sectional commonality in attention (sentiment) is linearly (nonlinearly) associated with both returns and order flows at the intraday level, while the sentiment and attentionmeasures themselves exhibit a nonlinear mutual relationship, thus revealing the multi-dimensional aspect of the commonality relationship.

Housing Wealth Shocks, Home Equity Withdrawal, And The Claiming Of Social Security Retirement Benefits, Naqun Huang, Li Jing, Amanda Ross

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines the impact of changes in house prices on when eligible individuals start receiving Social Security benefits. If house prices increase, financially constrained households may draw upon the additional home equity to finance expenses and delay receipt of Social Security in order to have increased lifetime monthly benefits. To address concerns that house price changes are correlated with unobserved local demand shocks, we use a control function approach and employ two different instrumental variables. We find that individuals delay Social Security claiming when house prices increase during the housing boom. The probability of claiming within two years after …

The Grid Bootstrap For Continuous Time Models, Yiu Lim Lui, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article proposes the new grid bootstrap to construct confidence intervals (CI) for the persistence parameter in a class of continuous-time models. It is different from the standard grid bootstrap of Hansen in dealing with the initial condition. The asymptotic validity of the CI is discussed under the in-fill scheme. The modified grid bootstrap leads to uniform inferences on the persistence parameter. Its improvement over in-fill asymptotics is achieved by expanding the coefficient-based statistic around its in-fill asymptotic distribution that is non-pivotal and depends on the initial condition. Monte Carlo studies show that the modified grid bootstrap performs better than …

The Effects Of The Affordable Care Act Dependent Coverage Mandate On Parents’ Labor Market Outcomes, Kim, Koh Kanghyock

Research Collection School Of Economics

We examine the labor market impacts of the Affordable Care Act dependent mandate (ACA-DM), which has significantly increased dependent children's health insurance coverage through parents’ employer-sponsored health benefits. Using data from the American Community Survey, we find that the ACA-DM reduced parents’ annual wages by about $2,600. However, the probability of employment and working hours only decreased marginally. The back-of-the-envelope calculation indicates that the magnitude of the estimated wage impact is similar to the increased insurance premium of a family plan due to the ACA-DM. These findings imply that a deadweight loss associated with the expansion of dependent health coverage …

Unconventional Monetary Policy And Disaster Risk: Evidence From The Subprime And Covid–19 Crises, Gustavo S. Cortes, George P. Gao, Felipe B. G. Silva, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We compare the interventions conducted by the Federal Reserve in response to the subprime and COVID–19 crises with respect to their effectiveness in reducing disaster risk. Using model-free measures of disaster risk derived from daily options data, we document that interventions in response to both crises reduced tail risks in domestic equity markets. The spillover effects of the two crises have been markedly dissimilar. While subprime interventions are generally characterized by negative spillovers to international equity markets, policy responses to the COVID–19 crisis are generally associated with positive spillovers. We interpret these results as consistent with the different degrees of …

Do Underwriters Short-Change Corporations Issuing Bonds?, Choo Yong, Jeremy Goh, Lisa Yang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We confirm prior evidence that bonds on average are offered at prices below their immediate post-offer secondary market prices. However, in cases where banks lead-manage their own bond offerings the underpricing is significantly less as compared to other non-self-marketed offerings. These findings are robust across various matched samples and selection models. Our results suggest that the bond offering process is characterized by substantive agency conflicts between shareholders of corporations (issuers) and underwriters.

Natural Disasters And Domestic Violence?: A Study Of The 2015 Nepal Earthquake, Arpita Khanna, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study estimates the impact of exposure to the 2015 Nepal Earthquake on intimate partner violence with two rounds of Demographic and Health Surveys data. Using differences-in-differences estimation, we find that exposure to the earthquake lead to a statistically and economically significant increase in intimate partner violence in the urban areas but not in the rural areas. This is possibly due to an increase in the stress felt by the earthquake victims. We also offer some evidence that the impact heterogeneity between the urban and rural areas is attributable to the differences in the reconstruction processes and assistance provided.

Geopolitics And Ballpark Estimates, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

Most economist commenced 2022 with 3 key assumptions on the global economy:

1) Some policy normalisation and reversal, though cautious and uneven, are likely to occur in economies with above-average growth and inflation;

2) The Covid-19 infection wave, while presumably asymmetric and recurrent across countries, appears to have less of an imprint on cyclical activity on balance;

3) The lingering supply disruptions resulting from the pandemic, albeit still intense and widespread, should be easing gradually.

Financial Intermediaries And Contagion In Market Efficiency: The Case Of Etfs, Claire Yurong Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Avanidhar Subrahmanyam

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Capital constraints of financial intermediaries can affect liquidity provision. We investigate whether these constraints spillover and consequently cause contagion in the degree of market efficiency across assets managed by a common intermediary. Specifically, we provide evidence of strong comovement in pricing gaps between ETFs and their constituents for ETFs served by the same lead market maker (LMM). The effects are stronger for ETFs that are more illiquid and volatile, when the underlying constituents of the ETFs are more costly to arbitrage, and for LMMs with more constrained capital. Using extreme disruptions in debt markets during COVID-19 as an experiment, we …

How Do Firms Respond To Reduced Private Equity Buyout Activity?, Yi-Hsin Lo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper presents new evidence on the economic role of private equity buyouts by exploiting the staggered adoption of the constructive fraud provision by U.S. state courts. The law unintentionally shifts the credit default risk borne by existing unsecured creditors of the buyout target to the selling shareholders and lenders in the form of ex-post litigation risk, thereby discouraging buyout activity. Using a difference-in-differences framework, I find that firms raise less capital, reduce payouts and investments, and form alliances with employees. Firms also avoid positive NPV projects that carry too much risk. These findings are consistent with managers enjoying a …

Correlation-Robust Auction Design, Wei He, Jiangtao Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the design of auctions when the auctioneer has limited statistical information about the joint distribution of the bidders' valuations. More specifically, we consider an auctioneer who has an estimate of the marginal distribution of a generic bidder's valuation but does not have reliable information about the correlation structure. We analyze the performance of mechanisms in terms of the revenue guarantee, that is, the greatest lower bound of revenue across all joint distributions that are consistent with the marginals. A simple auction format, the second-price auction with no reserve price, is shown to be asymptotically optimal, as the number …

Assessing Gender Parity In Intrahousehold Allocation Of Educational Resources: Evidence From Bangladesh, Sijia Xu, Abu S. Shonchoy, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

Gender parity in education—an important global development goal—has been primarily measured through school enrollment, and the gender parity in education quality has received limited attention until recently. We address this issue by highlighting the intrahousehold allocation of education expenditure. We extend the hurdle model into a three-part model to enable decomposition of households’ education decisions into enrollment, total education expenditure, and share of the total education expenditure on the core component, or items relating to the quality of education such as private tutoring. We apply this model to four rounds of nationally representative household surveys from Bangladesh, a country that …

Forced Moves And Home Maintenance: The Amplifying Effects Of Mortgage Payment Burden On Underwater Homeowners, John Harding, Li Jing, Stuart Rosenthal, Xirui Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Although the adverse effect of high loan to value ratios (LTV) on mortgage default is known, the potential amplifying effect of high payment-to-income (PTI) ratios that can force families out of their homes has received limited attention. High PTI and LTV can also add to default costs by discouraging home maintenance. Using the 1985-2013 AHS panel, we show that high PTI prompts families to move and especially so for households with LTV above 120%. This lends support for policies like HAMP and HARP that seek to reduce forced moves and mortgage default by lowering mortgage payment burden for financially stressed …