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Full-Text Articles in Economics

Multivariate Stochastic Volatility, Manabu Asai, Michael Mcaleer, Jun Yu Dec 2006

Multivariate Stochastic Volatility, Manabu Asai, Michael Mcaleer, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The literature on multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) models has developed significantly over the last few years. This paper reviews the substantial literature on specification, estimation and evaluation of MSV models. A wide range of MSV models is presented according to various categories, namely (i) asymmetric models; (ii) factor models; (iii) time-varying correlation models; and (iv) alternative MSV specifications, including models based on the matrix exponential transformation, Cholesky decomposition, Wishart autoregressive process, and the empirical range. Alternative methods of estimation, including quasi-maximum likelihood, simulated maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo likelihood, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, are discussed and compared. Various methods …

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Choice Of Currency By East Asia Bond Issuers, David Fernandez, Simon Klassen Nov 2006

Choice Of Currency By East Asia Bond Issuers, David Fernandez, Simon Klassen

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In discussing bond markets in Asia, academics and policymakers typically begin by noting that the Asian crisis of 1997-98 in part resulted from the underdevelopment of the region’s domestic bond markets and the resultant currency and duration mismatches. When assessing the progress made in developing these markets in the post-crisis years, academics and policymakers usually observe that, while several domestic currency government bond markets have moved ahead, corporate bond markets have lagged (Asian Development Bank (2002), Reserve Bank of Australia (2003)). The policy conclusion is therefore often drawn: to prevent another Asian crisis, Asian bond markets must be further developed.

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Lottery Rather Than Waiting-Line Auction, Winston T. H. Koh, Zhenlin Yang, Lijing Zhu Oct 2006

Lottery Rather Than Waiting-Line Auction, Winston T. H. Koh, Zhenlin Yang, Lijing Zhu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper investigates the allocative efficiency of two non-price allocation mechanisms – the lottery (random allocation) and the waiting-line auction (queue system) – for the cases where consumers possess identical time costs (the homogeneous case), and where time costs are correlated with time valuations (the heterogeneous case). We show that the relative efficiency of the two mechanisms depends critically on a scarcity factor (measured by the ratio of the number of objects available for allocation over the number of participants) and on the shape of the distribution of valuations. We show that the lottery dominates the waiting-line auction for a …

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On Joint Modelling And Testing For Local And Global Spatial Externalities, Zhenlin Yang Oct 2006

On Joint Modelling And Testing For Local And Global Spatial Externalities, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper concerns the joint modeling, estimation and testing for local and global spatial externalities. Spatial externalities have become in recent years a standard notion of economic research activities in relation to social interactions, spatial spillovers and dependence, etc., and have received an increasing attention by econometricians and applied researchers. While conceptually the principle underlying the spatial dependence is straightforward, the precise way in which this dependence should be included in a regression model is complex. Following the taxonomy of Anselin (2003, International Regional Science Review 26, 153-166), a general model is proposed, which takes into account jointly local and …

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What Matter For Child Development?, Fali Huang Oct 2006

What Matter For Child Development?, Fali Huang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper estimates production functions of child cognitive and social development using a panel data of nine-year old children each with over two hundred home and school inputs as well as family background variables. A tree regression method is used to conduct estimation under various speci…cations. A small subset of inputs is found consistently important in explaining variances of child development results, including the number of books a child has at various ages and how often a mother reads to child by age …ve, while the e¤ects of race and maternal employment are negligible when detailed inputs are controlled.

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Novartis's Alex Gorsky: Ensuring That Patients Get Access To The Medicines They Need, Knowledge@Smu Sep 2006

Novartis's Alex Gorsky: Ensuring That Patients Get Access To The Medicines They Need, Knowledge@Smu

Knowledge@SMU

Alex Gorsky was named head of Pharma North America and CEO of Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corp., the U.S. affiliate of Swiss drug giant Novartis, in the fall of 2005. Since joining the company in 2004 as chief operating officer and head of general medicines, Gorsky has overseen the continued growth of Novartis's industry-leading cardiovascular franchise, notably the blockbuster drugs Diovan and Lotrel. The company sells a variety of products, including those that treat endocrine and respiratory disease, gastrointestinal illnesses, cancer and blood disorders and bone and joint conditions, among others. Prior to joining Novartis, Gorsky was company group chairman for Johnson …

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Performance, Growth And Earnings Management, Chi Wen Jevons Lee, Laura Yue Li, Heng Yue Sep 2006

Performance, Growth And Earnings Management, Chi Wen Jevons Lee, Laura Yue Li, Heng Yue

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

We study the relationship between the amount of managed earnings and firms' earnings performance and expected growth in a reporting model, where managers manipulate earnings to influence the valuation of firms' equity while bearing a cost that is increasing and convex in the amount of managed earnings. In the unique revealing equilibrium to the model, firms with higher performance and growth over-report earnings by a larger amount because price responsiveness increases with earnings performance and growth. And earnings quality, defined as the proportion of true economic earnings in total reported earnings, increases with earnings performance but decreases with earnings growth. …

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Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models: Bayesian Estimation And Model Comparison, Jun Yu, Renate Meyer Sep 2006

Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models: Bayesian Estimation And Model Comparison, Jun Yu, Renate Meyer

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we show that fully likelihood-based estimation and comparison of multivariate stochastic volatility (SV) models can be easily performed via a freely available Bayesian software called WinBUGS. Moreover, we introduce to the literature several new specifications that are natural extensions to certain existing models, one of which allows for time-varying correlation coefficients. Ideas are illustrated by fitting, to a bivariate time series data of weekly exchange rates, nine multivariate SV models, including the specifications with Granger causality in volatility, time-varying correlations, heavy-tailed error distributions, additive factor structure, and multiplicative factor structure. Empirical results suggest that the best specifications …

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Set Inference For Semiparametric Discrete Games, Kyoo-Il Kim Sep 2006

Set Inference For Semiparametric Discrete Games, Kyoo-Il Kim

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider estimation and inference of parameters in discrete games allowing for multiple equilibria, without using an equilibrium selection rule. We do a set inference while a game model can contain infinite dimensional parameters. Examples can include signaling games with discrete types where the type distribution is nonparametrically specified and entry-exit games with partially linear payoffs functions. A consistent set estimator and a confidence interval of a function of parameters are provided in this paper. We note that achieving a consistent point estimation often requires an information reduction. Due to this less use of information, we may end up a …

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Higher Order Bias Correcting Moment Equation For M-Estimation And Its Higher Order Efficiency, Kyoo-Il Kim Sep 2006

Higher Order Bias Correcting Moment Equation For M-Estimation And Its Higher Order Efficiency, Kyoo-Il Kim

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies an alternative bias correction for the M-estimator, which is obtained by correcting the moment equation in the spirit of Firth (1993). In particular, this paper compares the stochastic expansions of the analytically bias-corrected estimator and the alternative estimator and finds that the third-order stochastic expansions of these two estimators are identical. This implies that at least in terms of the third order stochastic expansion, we cannot improve on the simple one-step bias correction by using the bias correction of moment equations. Though the result in this paper is for a fixed number of parameters, our intuition may …

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Uniform Convergence Rate Of The Snp Density Estimator And Testing For Similarity Of Two Unknown Densities, Kyoo-Il Kim Sep 2006

Uniform Convergence Rate Of The Snp Density Estimator And Testing For Similarity Of Two Unknown Densities, Kyoo-Il Kim

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the uniform convergence rate of the turncated SNP (semi-nonparametric) density estimator. Using the uniform convergence rate result we obtain, we propose a test statistic testing the equivalence of two unknown densities where two densities are estimated using the SNP estimator and supports of densities are possibly unbounded.

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Semiparametric Estimation Of Signaling Games, Kyoo-Il Kim Sep 2006

Semiparametric Estimation Of Signaling Games, Kyoo-Il Kim

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies an econometric modeling of a signaling game with two players where one player has one of two types. In particular, we develop an estimation strategy that identifies the payoffs structure and the distribution of types from data of observed actions. We can achieve uniqueness of equilibrium using a refinement, which enables us to identify the parameters of interest. In the game, we consider non-strategic public signals about the types. Because the mixing distribution of these signals is nonparametrically specified, we propose to estimate the model using a sieve conditional MLE. We achieve the consistency and the asymptotic …

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On The Magnet Effect Of Foreign Direct Investment, Pao Li Chang, Chia-Hui Lu Sep 2006

On The Magnet Effect Of Foreign Direct Investment, Pao Li Chang, Chia-Hui Lu

Research Collection School Of Economics

We extend Antras and Helpman (2004) on firm heterogeneity and organizational choice to a dynamic setting with FDI uncertainty, in which the probability of investment failure decreases with the host country's infrastructure level and increases with the technological complexity facing each firm. Moreover, it decreases over time as the accumulated mass of firms succeeding in FDI increases. We show that a minimum level of infrastructure is required to trigger a first wave of industrial migration. We then formalize the often noted "magnet effect" of FDI - the first wave of industrial migration generates positive externality (information spillover) for subsequent investors, …

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Protection For Sale Under Monopolistic Competition: An Empirical Investigation, Pao Li Chang, Myoung-Jae Lee Aug 2006

Protection For Sale Under Monopolistic Competition: An Empirical Investigation, Pao Li Chang, Myoung-Jae Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a general empirical framework to estimate the protection-for-sale model, where the protection regime shifts according to a sector's market structure (perfectly or monopolistically competitive). We base the protection structure on Grossman and Helpman (1994) for the subset of perfectly competitive sectors and on Chang (2005) for the subset of monopolistically competitive sectors. The two protection regimes are simultaneously estimated with joint constraints. The results of the J-test consistently reject the homogeneous (perfect competition) protection-for-sale model often adopted in previous literature and suggest a direction of improvement toward the proposed heterogeneous protection structure model.

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Characterizing Exchange Rate Policy In East Asia: A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow Aug 2006

Characterizing Exchange Rate Policy In East Asia: A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

Frankel and Wei [Frankel, J. A., & Wei, S.-J. (1994). Yen bloc or dollar bloc: Exchange rate policies of the East Asian economies. In I. Takatoshi & A. Krueger (Eds.), Macroeconomic linkages. Chicago: University of Chicago Press] developed and popularized a method for uncovering the implicit weights assigned to major international currencies constituting a currency basket. We extend the methodology in two dimensions: include regional competitive pressure and employ a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to overcome simultaneity bias. With these modifications, we confirm the prominent role of the US dollar in the exchange rate policy of East Asian economies beyond …

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The Political Economy Of Poverty Reduction: A Comparative Study Of Two Chinese Provinces, John A. Donaldson Aug 2006

The Political Economy Of Poverty Reduction: A Comparative Study Of Two Chinese Provinces, John A. Donaldson

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Is growth good for the poor? In theory, yes. As one influential report on China’s “War on Poverty” suggested, ”Obviously robust economic growth helps reduce poverty, as long as the gains are reasonably distributed” (Rozelle et al. 2000). In practice as well, growth is often a crucial ingredient in the poverty reduction recipe. While this relationship is well founded, important exceptions present themselves – some areas grow, but poverty persists; the economies of other areas remain apparently stagnant, yet poverty diminishes. These exceptions, if studied, will not only illuminate further the causal relationship between these two concepts, but also provide …

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The Coevolution Of Economic And Political Development, Fali Huang Aug 2006

The Coevolution Of Economic And Political Development, Fali Huang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper establishes a simple model of long run economic and political development, which is driven by the inherent technical features of different production factors, and political conflicts among factor owners on how to divide the outputs. The main capital form in economy evolves from land to physical capital and then to human capital, which enables their respective owners (landlords, capitalists, and workers) to gain political powers in the same sequence, shaping the political development path from monarchy to elite ruling and finally to full suffrage. When it is too costly for any group of factor owners to repress others, …

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Spectral Density Estimation And Robust Hypothesis Testing Using Steep Origin Kernels Without Truncation, Peter C.B Philips, Yixiao Sun, Sainan Jin Aug 2006

Spectral Density Estimation And Robust Hypothesis Testing Using Steep Origin Kernels Without Truncation, Peter C.B Philips, Yixiao Sun, Sainan Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new class of kernels for long-run variance and spectral density estimation is developed by exponentiating traditional quadratic kernels. Depending on whether the exponent parameter is allowed to grow with the sample size, we establish different asymptotic approximations to the sampling distribution of the proposed estimators. When the exponent is passed to infinity with the sample size, the new estimator is consistent and shown to be asymptotically normal. When the exponent is fixed, the new estimator is inconsistent and has a nonstandard limiting distribution. It is shown via Monte Carlo experiments that, when the chosen exponent is small in practical …

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Can't Afford To See A Doctor? The Difficulties Of Reforming China's Healthcare System, Knowledge@Smu Jul 2006

Can't Afford To See A Doctor? The Difficulties Of Reforming China's Healthcare System, Knowledge@Smu

Knowledge@SMU

An article co-published on May 22 by China Social Science Literature Publishing house and China Medical Industry Magazine, entitled “Healthcare Greenpaper,” reviews a series of problems associated with China’s healthcare reform over the past 10 years. Of the five biggest problems identified by the paper, the worst one is prohibitively expensive treatment. To examine this issue, Knowledge@Wharton interviewed a variety of experts and officials on the state of health care in China and the changing relationships between hospitals and patients.

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A Modified Family Of Power Transformations, Zhenlin Yang Jul 2006

A Modified Family Of Power Transformations, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

A modified family of power transformation, called the dual power transformation, is proposed. The new transformation is shown to possess properties similar to those of the well-known Box-Cox power transformation, but overcomes the long-standing truncation problem of the latter. It generates a rich family of distributions that is seen to be very useful in modeling and analysis of durations and event-times.

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Exchange-Rate Systems And Interest-Rate Behaviour: The Experience Of Hong Kong And Singapore, Yiu Kuen Tse, Paul S. L. Yip Jul 2006

Exchange-Rate Systems And Interest-Rate Behaviour: The Experience Of Hong Kong And Singapore, Yiu Kuen Tse, Paul S. L. Yip

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Currency Board System in Hong Kong and the monitoring band system in Singapore are important benchmarks for two different exchange-rate systems. In this paper we consider the implications of the two exchange-rate systems on the interest-rate behaviour of the two economies. We examine the domestic–US interest differentials under the two exchange-rate regimes during the Asian Financial Crisis as well as the pre-and post-crisis periods. Using a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model, we also investigate whether there is any change in the correlation between the domestic and US interest rates due to the Asian Financial Crisis.

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Weak Monotonicity Characterizes Deterministic Dominant-Strategy Implementation, Sushil Bikhchandani, Shurojit Chatterji, Ron Lavi, Ahuva Mu'alem, Noam Nisan, Arunava Sen Jul 2006

Weak Monotonicity Characterizes Deterministic Dominant-Strategy Implementation, Sushil Bikhchandani, Shurojit Chatterji, Ron Lavi, Ahuva Mu'alem, Noam Nisan, Arunava Sen

Research Collection School Of Economics

We characterize dominant-strategy incentive compatibility with multidimensional types. A deterministic social choice function is dominant-strategy incentive compatible if and only if it is weakly monotone (W-Mon). The W-Mon requirement is the following: If changing one agent's type (while keeping the types of other agents fixed) changes the outcome under the social choice function, then the resulting difference in utilities of the new and original outcomes evaluated at the new type of this agent must be no less than this difference in utilities evaluated at the original type of this agent.

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Non-Fundamental Expectations And Economic Fluctuations: Evidence From Professional Forecasts, Keen Meng Choy, Kenneth Leong, Anthony S. Tay Jun 2006

Non-Fundamental Expectations And Economic Fluctuations: Evidence From Professional Forecasts, Keen Meng Choy, Kenneth Leong, Anthony S. Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

It is theoretically possible that non-fundamental idiosyncratic shocks to agents’ rational expectations are a source of economic fluctuations. Studies using data on consumer and investor sentiment suggest that this is indeed an important source of fluctuations. We present the results of a study that uses forecasts from professional forecasters to extract non-fundamental shocks to expectations. In contrast to previous studies, we show that non-fundamental expectations are not a significant source of output fluctuations, although such shocks contributed to inflation.

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Innovation, Imitation And Entrepreneurship, Kong Weng Ho, Grace Yong Jun 2006

Innovation, Imitation And Entrepreneurship, Kong Weng Ho, Grace Yong

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

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Intergeneration Educational Mobility In Singapore: An Empirical Study, Kong Weng Ho, Regina Ng Jun 2006

Intergeneration Educational Mobility In Singapore: An Empirical Study, Kong Weng Ho, Regina Ng

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

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A Spatial Analysis Of The Xiii Italian Legislature, Massimiliano Landi, Riccardo Pelizzo Jun 2006

A Spatial Analysis Of The Xiii Italian Legislature, Massimiliano Landi, Riccardo Pelizzo

Research Collection School Of Economics

We present a spatial map of the Italian House of Deputies during the XIII Legislature obtained by applying the Poole and Rosenthal methodology to roll call data. We estimate coordinates for almost all the 650 Deputies that were on the House’s floor at the time, and we aggregate them according to parties. We find that voting patters generate basically a two dimensional political space. The first dimension represents loyalty to either the ruling coalition or the opposing one. The second dimension is represented by the European Union. These findings are consistent with the exceptional case of the party Northern League, …

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Growth Accounting For A Follower-Economy In A World Of Ideas: The Example Of Singapore, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon Jun 2006

Growth Accounting For A Follower-Economy In A World Of Ideas: The Example Of Singapore, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we take another approach to accounting for the sources of Singapore’s economic growth by being explicit about the channels through which Singapore, as a technological follower, benefits from international R&D spillovers. Taking into account the channels through which technology developed in the G5 countries diffuses to technological followers, we show that 57.5 percent of Singapore’s real GDP per worker growth rate over the 1970-2002 period is due to multifactor productivity growth. In particular, about 52 percent of the growth is accounted for by an increase in the effectiveness of accessing ideas developed by the technology leaders through …

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Message Spaces For Perfect Correlated Equilibria, Shurojit Chatterji, Srihari Govindan Jun 2006

Message Spaces For Perfect Correlated Equilibria, Shurojit Chatterji, Srihari Govindan

Research Collection School Of Economics

We show that a perfect correlated equilibrium distribution of an N-person game, as defined by Dhillon and Mertens (1996) can be achieved using a finite number of copies of the strategy space as the message space.

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Green Revolutions And Miracle Economies: Agricultural Innovation, Trade And Growth, Brishti Guha Jun 2006

Green Revolutions And Miracle Economies: Agricultural Innovation, Trade And Growth, Brishti Guha

Research Collection School Of Economics

The purpose of this paper is to develop a simple model of an economy in which growth is driven by a combination of exogenous technical change in agriculture and a rising world demand for labor-intensive manufactured exports. We explore the relative roles of an exogenous agricultural productivity shock and rising export demand in a model with two traded industrial goods and a non-traded agricultural good, food. When the non-traded sector uses a specific factor, we show that technical change in agriculture may be the key to factor migration into industry, in particular driving intersectoral labor migration. A key assumption is …

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The Transition From Relational To Legal Contract Enforcement, Fali Huang Jun 2006

The Transition From Relational To Legal Contract Enforcement, Fali Huang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the transition of contract enforcement institutions. The prevalence of relational contracts, low legal quality, strong cultural preference for personalistic relationships, low social mobility, and highly unequal endowment form a cluster of mutually reinforcing institutions that hinder economic development. The cultural element per se does not necessarily reduce social welfare though it may slow down the legal development, while the real problem lies in endowment inequality and low social mobility. Thus a more equal distribution of resources may be the ultimate key to unravel the above interlocking institutions. These results are generally consistent with the empirical evidence.

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