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Articles 1891 - 1920 of 2456
Full-Text Articles in Economics
Implementation With Near Complete Information: The Case Of Subgame Perfection, Takashi Kunimoto, Olivier Tercieux
Implementation With Near Complete Information: The Case Of Subgame Perfection, Takashi Kunimoto, Olivier Tercieux
Research Collection School Of Economics
While monotonicity is a necessary and almost sufficient condition for Nash implementationand often a demanding one, almost any (non-monotonic, for instance) socialchoice rule can be implemented using undominated Nash or subgame perfect equilibrium.By requiring solution concepts to have closed graph in the limit of completeinformation, Chung and Ely (2003) show that only monotonic social choice rules canbe implemented in the closure of the undominated Nash equilibrium correspondence.In this paper, we show that only monotonic social choice rules can be implemented inthe closure of the subgame perfect equilibrium/sequential equilibrium correspondence.Our robustness result helps understand the limits of subgame pefect implementation,which is …
Subnational Credit Rating: A Comparative Review, Lili Liu, Kim Song Tan
Subnational Credit Rating: A Comparative Review, Lili Liu, Kim Song Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper surveys methodological issues in subnational credit ratings and highlights key challenges for developing countries. Subnational borrowing from capital markets has been on the rise owing to fiscal decentralization and demand for infrastructure investments. A prerequisite for accessing capital markets, subnational credit ratings have also emerged as a part of broader reform for fiscal sustainability. They facilitate a more transparent budgetary and financial management system. The global financial crisis makes subnational credit ratings more relevant, as they contribute to fiscal risk evaluations and fiscal adjustment. In addition to subnationals’ own credit strength, the creditworthiness of the sovereign and the …
Penny For Your Pint: The Tricky Art Of Buying Kindness, Knowledge@Smu
Penny For Your Pint: The Tricky Art Of Buying Kindness, Knowledge@Smu
Knowledge@SMU
Do material incentives influence blood donations? A commonly held view is that people donate their blood out of a pro-social motivation. But not everyone is willing to offer their blood for nothing. Material incentives might persuade some to step forward, yet they could very well alienate those who believe that such acts must not be motivated by selfish gains. Indeed, blood banks thread a fine line between motivating the ‘selfish’ and pandering to the ‘selfless’. Economist Alois Stutzer shares the results of a field experiment involving more than 10,000 potential blood donors with Singapore Management University.
Competition Law And The International Transport Sectors, Sock Yong Phang
Competition Law And The International Transport Sectors, Sock Yong Phang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This article charts the evolving regulation of cooperation and coordination between international transport firms, in particular those operating within the liner shipping and international air transport sectors. There has been a long history of exemption of these sectors from the rules and regulations of antitrust or competition law. In the past three decades, regulatory reforms and privatization have, however, subjected these sectors to competitive forces that have transformed these industries. With the introduction of competition law in many jurisdictions, the justifications for their continued exemption have come under intense scrutiny. In the late 19705, the US initiated deregulation of its …
Asian Currency Baskets: An Answer In Search Of A Question?, Charles Adams, Hwee Kwan Chow
Asian Currency Baskets: An Answer In Search Of A Question?, Charles Adams, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper considers how a regional currency basket and the associated divergence indicators could be used in official surveillance. Recently, proponents of Asian currency baskets have referred to the role the ECU played in constructing exchange rate divergence indicators in Europe as evidence of the intrinsic usefulness of currency baskets for exchange rate monitoring. We show in this paper a number of problems with the use of regional currency-basket based divergence indicators. First, at a technical level, such indicators involve tracking regional exchange rates against a moving currency basket and can obscure underlying movements in bilateral exchange rates. Second, currency …
Efficient Parameter Estimation In Longitudinal Data Analysis Using A Hybrid Gee Method, Denis H. Y. Leung, You Gan Wang, Min Zhu
Efficient Parameter Estimation In Longitudinal Data Analysis Using A Hybrid Gee Method, Denis H. Y. Leung, You Gan Wang, Min Zhu
Research Collection School Of Economics
The method of generalized estimating equations (GEEs) provides consistent estimates of the regression parameters in a marginal regression model for longitudinal data, even when the working correlation model is misspecified (Liang and Zeger, 1986). However, the efficiency of a GEE estimate can be seriously affected by the choice of the working correlation model. This study addresses this problem by proposing a hybrid method that combines multiple GEEs based on different working correlation models, using the empirical likelihood method (Qin and Lawless, 1994). Analyses show that this hybrid method is more efficient than a GEE using a misspecified working correlation model. …
Can A Representative-Agent Model Represent A Heterogeneous-Agent Economy, Sungbae An, Yongsung Chang, Sun-Bin Kim
Can A Representative-Agent Model Represent A Heterogeneous-Agent Economy, Sungbae An, Yongsung Chang, Sun-Bin Kim
Research Collection School Of Economics
Accounting for observed fluctuations in aggregate employment, consumption, and real wage using the optimality conditions of a representative household requires preferences that are incompatible with economic priors. In order to reconcile theory with data, we construct a model with heterogeneous agents whose decisions are difficult to aggregate because of incomplete capital markets and the indivisible nature of labor supply. If we were to explain the model-generated aggregate time series using decisions of a stand-in household, such a household must have a nonconcave or unstable utility as is often found with the aggregate US data.
School Entry, Educational Attainment And Quarter Of Birth: A Cautionary Tale Of Late, Rashmi Barua, Kevin Lang
School Entry, Educational Attainment And Quarter Of Birth: A Cautionary Tale Of Late, Rashmi Barua, Kevin Lang
Research Collection School Of Economics
Partly in response to increased testing and accountability, states and districts have been raising the minimum school entry age, but existing studies show mixed results regarding the effects of entry age. These studies may be severely biased because they violate the monotonicity assumption needed for LATE. We propose an instrument not subject to this bias and show no effect on the educational attainment of children born in the fourth quarter of moving from a December 31 to an earlier cutoff. We then estimate a structural model of optimal entry age that reconciles the different IV estimates including ours. We find …
Auction Design And Tacit Collusion In Fcc Spectrum Auctions, Patrick Bajari, Jungwon Yeo
Auction Design And Tacit Collusion In Fcc Spectrum Auctions, Patrick Bajari, Jungwon Yeo
Research Collection School Of Economics
The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has used auctions to award spectrum since 1994. During this time period, the FCC has experimented with a variety of auctions rules including click box bidding and anonymous bidding. These rule changes make the actions of bidders less visible during the auction and also limit the set of bids that can be submitted during a particular round. Economic theory suggests that tacit collusion may be more difficult as a result. We examine this proposition using data from four auctions: the PCS-C Block, the PCS-C&F Block Reauction, the Advanced Wireless Service auction and the 700 MHz …
A Two-Stage Realized Volatility Approach To Estimation Of Diffusion Processes With Discrete Data, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
A Two-Stage Realized Volatility Approach To Estimation Of Diffusion Processes With Discrete Data, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper motivates and introduces a two-stage method of estimating diffusion processes based on discretely sampled observations. In the first stage we make use of the feasible central limit theory for realized volatility, as developed in [Jacod, J., 1994. Limit of random measures associated with the increments of a Brownian semiartingal. Working paper, Laboratoire de Probabilities, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris] and [Barndorff-Nielsen, O., Shephard, N., 2002. Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, 64, 253-280], to provide a regression model for estimating the parameters …
An Empirical Analysis Of Stock Market Integration: Comparison Study Of Singapore And Malaysia, Zheng Yi, Swee Liang Tan
An Empirical Analysis Of Stock Market Integration: Comparison Study Of Singapore And Malaysia, Zheng Yi, Swee Liang Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
Using a GARCH (1,1) model, this paper compares the extent to which financial sector liberalization in Singapore and Malaysia each has led to integration of its domestic equity market with external markets. The results show that the level of integration of the domestic markets with the external markets is higher when MSCI regional and global data are used, as compared to when individual country data are used to proxy regional and global markets. Inferences are made about the preferred pace of liberalization in Singapore, as well as, the impact of the Asian financial crisis and capital control measures imposed in …
What Do We Expect From Our Friends?, Stephen Leider, Markus M. Mobius, Tanya S. Rosenblat, Quoc-Anh Do
What Do We Expect From Our Friends?, Stephen Leider, Markus M. Mobius, Tanya S. Rosenblat, Quoc-Anh Do
Research Collection School Of Economics
We conduct a field experiment in a large real-world social network to examine how subjects expect to be treated by their friends and by strangers who make allocation decisions in modified dictator games. Although recipients’ beliefs accurately account for the extent to which friends will choose more generous allocations than strangers (i.e., directed altruism), recipients are not able to anticipate individual differences in the baseline altruism of allocators (measured by giving to an unnamed recipient, which is predictive of generosity toward named recipients). Recipients who are direct friends with the allocator, or even recipients with many common friends, are no …
Study On Singapore's Experience Of Regional Economic Cooperation, John Wong, Kim Song Tan, Yang Mu, Sarah Tong, Tim Seng Lim, Chee Kia Lim
Study On Singapore's Experience Of Regional Economic Cooperation, John Wong, Kim Song Tan, Yang Mu, Sarah Tong, Tim Seng Lim, Chee Kia Lim
Research Collection School Of Economics
Singapore and Hong Kong share many similarities in their growth experiences and challenges. Both were traditionally entrepot economies and service hubs for their hinterlands – China for Hong Kong, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), in general but Malaysia and Indonesia in particular, in the case of Singapore. The two economies have gone through major structural changes over the years in response to changes in the global economy and in their relationships with their respective hinterlands. The changing relationships with their hinterlands play a crucial role in driving their external economic policies.
Subsidies For Fdi: Implications From A Model With Heterogeneous Firms, Davin Chor
Subsidies For Fdi: Implications From A Model With Heterogeneous Firms, Davin Chor
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper analyzes the welfare effects of subsidies to attract multinational corporations when firms are heterogeneous in their productivity levels. I show that the use of a small subsidy raises welfare in the FDI host country, with the consumption gains from attracting more multinationals exceeding the direct cost of funding the subsidy program through a tax on labor income. This welfare gain stems from a selection effect, whereby the subsidy induces only the most productive exporters to switch to servicing the host's market via FDI. I further show that for the same total subsidy bill, a subsidy to variable costs …
Econometric Theory And Practice, Peter C. B. Phillips
Econometric Theory And Practice, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
Econometrics has been evolving as a discipline over the last decade in a way that has successfully brought theory and practice much closer together. Many of the developments are associated with laptop computing, the increasing availability of electronic databases, and the convenience of modern econometric software and matrix programming languages. The changes that have occurred affect us at every level as teachers, researchers, practitioners, readers, reviewers, and authors. No journal can stand still in the face of such changes. This editorial speaks to these changes and the way they impact our subject, our authors, and our readership.
Econometric Theory And Practice, Peter C. B. Phillips
Econometric Theory And Practice, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
Econometrics has been evolving as a discipline over the last decade in a way that has successfully brought theory and practice much closer together. Many of the developments are associated with laptop computing, the increasing availability of electronic databases, and the convenience of modern econometric software and matrix programming languages. The changes that have occurred affect us at every level as teachers, researchers, practitioners, readers, reviewers, and authors. No journal can stand still in the face of such changes. This editorial speaks to these changes and the way they impact our subject, our authors, and our readership.
Discrete Choice Modeling With Nonstationary Panels Applied To Exchange Rate Regime Choice, Sainan Jin
Discrete Choice Modeling With Nonstationary Panels Applied To Exchange Rate Regime Choice, Sainan Jin
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper develops a regression limit theory for discrete choice nonstationary panels with large cross section (N) and time series (T) dimensions. Some results emerging from this theory are directly applicable in the wider context of M-estimation. This includes an extension of work by Wooldridge [Wooldridge, J.M., 1994. Estimation and Inference for Dependent Processes. In: Engle, R.F., McFadden, D.L. (Eds.). Handbook of Econometrics, vol. 4, North-Holland, Amsterdam] on the limit theory of local extremum estimators to multi-indexed processes in nonlinear nonstationary panel data models. It is shown that the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator is consistent without an incidental parameters problem …
Technology, Unilateral Commitments And Cumulative Emissions Reduction, Shurojit Chatterji, Sayantan Ghosal
Technology, Unilateral Commitments And Cumulative Emissions Reduction, Shurojit Chatterji, Sayantan Ghosal
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this article, we argue that weak property rights over transnational pollution and the limited threat of retaliatory punishments blunts the effectiveness of a broad-based multilateral agreement to deliver the emission reductions required to mitigate climate change. Instead, we propose a policy framework that builds on unilateral commitments, endogenous innovation and technology transfer that could lead to cumulative emissions reduction by altering the participation constraints of nations over time.
Hype My Stock: Do Firms Really Want Biased Research?, Roger Loh
Hype My Stock: Do Firms Really Want Biased Research?, Roger Loh
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Analyst research is alleged to be biased because of conflicts of interest when analysts’ employers underwrite securities for the firms covered. I posit that affiliated analyst optimism should be the strongest for offering firms with a desire to over-inflate stock prices. I hypothesize that a firm’s corporate governance and its CEO incentives are related to the affiliation bias. Using stock recommendations data, I find evidence that the affiliation bias is indeed more pervasive for firms with high CEO wealth sensitivity to stock price (i.e., high CEO delta). The larger affiliation bias for high delta firms remains even after the introduction …
Payroll Taxes, Wealth And Employment In Neoclassical Theory: Neutrality Or Non-Neutrality?, Hian Teck Hoon
Payroll Taxes, Wealth And Employment In Neoclassical Theory: Neutrality Or Non-Neutrality?, Hian Teck Hoon
Research Collection School Of Economics
The theoretical proposition that temporarily below-normal tax rates on labor this year, when merged with the prospect of reversion to normal rates next year, will encourage households to squeeze more work into this year and to work less in future years is well-founded. This proposition was recently tested anew on Icelandic data and performed well empirically (Bianchi, Gudmundsson and Zoega (2001)). But would a permanent cut in tax rates on labor encourage more work permanently—with no diminution of effectiveness? Conversely, does a permanent increase in tax rates on labor cause a permanent decline in hours worked?
A Paradox Of Inconsistent Parametric And Consistent Nonparametric Regression, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su
A Paradox Of Inconsistent Parametric And Consistent Nonparametric Regression, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper explores a paradox discovered in recent work by Phillips and Su (2009). That paper gave an example in which nonparametric regression is consistent whereas parametric regression is inconsistent even when the true regression functional form is known and used in regression. This appears to be a paradox, as knowing the true functional form should not in general be detrimental in regression. In the present case, local regression methods turn out to have a distinct advantage because of endogeneity in the regressor. The paradox arises because additional correct information is not necessarily advantageous when information is incomplete. In the …
Using High-Frequency Transaction Data To Estimate The Probability Of Informed Trading, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitchell Warachka
Using High-Frequency Transaction Data To Estimate The Probability Of Informed Trading, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitchell Warachka
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper applies the asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration (AACD) model of Bauwens and Giot (2003) to estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN) using irregularly spaced transaction data. We model trade direction (buy versus sell orders) and the duration between trades jointly. Unlike the Easley, Hvidkjaer, and O'Hara (2002) approach, which uses the aggregate numbers of daily buy and sell orders to estimate PIN, our methodology allows for interactions between consecutive buy-sell orders and accounts for the duration between trades and the volume of trade. We extend the Easley–Hvidkjaer–O'Hara framework by allowing the probabilities of good news and bad news …
Nonparametric Structural Estimation Via Continuous Location Shifts In An Endogenous Regressor, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su
Nonparametric Structural Estimation Via Continuous Location Shifts In An Endogenous Regressor, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su
Research Collection School Of Economics
Recent work by Wang and Phillips (2009b, c) has shown that ill posed inverse problems do not arise in nonstationary nonparametric regression and there is no need for nonparametric instrumental variable estimation. Instead, simple Nadaraya Watson nonparametric estimation of a (possibly nonlinear) cointegrating regression equation is consistent with a limiting (mixed) normal distribution irrespective of the endogeneity in the regressor, near integration as well as integration in the regressor, and serial dependence in the regression equation. The present paper shows that some closely related results apply in the case of structural nonparametric regression with independent data when there are continuous …
Limit Theory For Dating The Origination And Collapse Of Mildly Explosive Periods In Time Series Data, Jun Yu, Peter C. B. Phillips
Limit Theory For Dating The Origination And Collapse Of Mildly Explosive Periods In Time Series Data, Jun Yu, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
Some limit theory is developed for estimators suggested in Phillips, Wu and Yu (2009) for dating bubble pheonoma in time series data. The models involve mildly explosive autoregressions and the tests rely on right sided recursive unit root tests. The estimates locate the origination and collapse dates of bubbles involving mildly explosive episodes set within longer periods where the data evolve as a stochastic trend. The dating estimators are shown to be consistent under mild regularity conditions on the process. Some simulation evidence on the performance of the estimators is reported. The proposed method works well in finite samples and …
Limit Theory For Cointegrated Systems With Moderately Integrated And Moderately Explosive Regressors, Tassos Magdalinos, Peter C. B. Phillips
Limit Theory For Cointegrated Systems With Moderately Integrated And Moderately Explosive Regressors, Tassos Magdalinos, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
An asymptotic theory is developed for multivariate regression in cointegrated systems whose variables are moderately integrated or moderately explosive in the sense that they have autoregressive roots of the form rho(ni) = 1 + c(i)/n(alpha), involving moderate deviations from unity when alpha is an element of (0, 1) and c(i) is an element of R are constant parameters. When the data are moderately integrated in the stationary direction (with c(i) < 0), it is shown that least squares regression is consistent and asymptotically normal but suffers from significant bias, related to simultaneous equations bias. In the moderately explosive case (where c(i) > 0) the limit theory is mixed normal with Cauchy-type tail behavior, and the rate of convergence is explosive, as in the case of a moderately explosive scalar autoregression (Phillips and …
Has Vietnam’S Economic Progress Bypassed Its Ethnic Minorities?, Knowledge@Smu
Has Vietnam’S Economic Progress Bypassed Its Ethnic Minorities?, Knowledge@Smu
Knowledge@SMU
In Vietnam, young people account for about one-third of the country’s 85 million population, a historic peak for this age group. While previously with the Population Council in Vietnam, sociology professor at the Singapore Management University (SMU), Bussarawan Teerawichitchainan, conducted studies of ethnic minority youths as well as health-seeking behavioural practices of minority parents with children less than five years. The findings raised concerns that the benefits of the country’s rapid progress as well as improvements in living and health standards have not filtered through to those living in the remote areas.
Testing Conditional Uncorrelatedness, Liangjun Su, Aman Ullah
Testing Conditional Uncorrelatedness, Liangjun Su, Aman Ullah
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose a nonparametric test for conditional uncorrelatedness in multiple-equation models such as seemingly unrelated regressions (SURs), multivariate volatility models, and vector autoregressions (VARs). Under the null hypothesis of conditional uncorrelatedness, the test statistic converges to the standard normal distribution asymptotically. We also study the local power property of the test. Simulation shows that the test behaves quite well in finite samples.
Misaligned Incentives And Mortgage Lending In Asia, Richard Green, Roberto S. Mariano, Andrey Pavlov, Susan Wachter
Misaligned Incentives And Mortgage Lending In Asia, Richard Green, Roberto S. Mariano, Andrey Pavlov, Susan Wachter
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper provides a conceptual basis for the price discovery potential for tradable market instruments and specifically the development of mortgage securitization in Asia and the potential dangers of such markets. Nonetheless we argue for the potential importance of securitization in Asia because of its possible role in increasing transparency of the financial sector of Asian economies. We put forth a model explaining how misaligned incentives can lead to bank generated real estate crashes and macroeconomic instability, with or without securitization under certain circumstances. We examine the banking sector’s performance in Asia compared to securitized real estate returns, to provide …
Risk, Firm Heterogeneity, And Dynamics Of Fdi Entry, Pao Li Chang, Chia-Hui Lu
Risk, Firm Heterogeneity, And Dynamics Of Fdi Entry, Pao Li Chang, Chia-Hui Lu
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study the dynamics of FDI entry under a setting with firm heterogeneity and FDI uncertainty. The risk of FDI failure depends positively on the complexity of production technology, negatively on the quality of infrastructure in the host country, and evolves over time with the extent of knowledge diffusion. The incorporation of FDI uncertainty leads to a non-monotonic relationship between technology complexity and the timing of FDI entry: firms with intermediate technology levels lead the first wave of FDI, which helps lower the investment uncertainty facing subsequent investors and induces a wider range of FDI entry in the second period. …
Tops-Only Domains, Shurojit Chatterji, Arunava Sen
Tops-Only Domains, Shurojit Chatterji, Arunava Sen
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper we consider the standard voting model with a finite set of alternatives A and n voters and address the following question: what are the characteristics of domains D that induce the property that every strategy-proof social choice function f : Dn → A satisfying unanimity, has the tops-only property? We first impose a minimal richness condition which ensures that for every alternative a, there exists an admissible ordering where a is maximal. We identify conditions on D that are sufficient for strategy-proofness and unanimity to imply tops onlyness in the general case of n voters and in …