Economics Commons^™

Coarse Revealed Preference, Gaoji Hu, Jiangtao Li, John K-H Quah, Rui Tang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a novel concept of rationalization, called coarse rationalization, tailored for the analysis of datasets where an agent’s choices are imperfectly observed. We characterize those datasets which are rationalizable in this sense and present an efficient algorithm to verify the characterizing condition. We then demonstrate how our results can be applied through a duality approach to test the rationalizability of datasets with perfectly observed choices but imprecisely observed linear budget sets. For datasets that consist of both perfectly observed feasible sets and choices but are inconsistent with perfect rationality, our results could be used to measure the extent to …

Bubbly Booms And Welfare, Feng Dong, Yang Jiao, Haoning Sun

Research Collection School Of Economics

We show the competing effects of a housing bubble on the real economy by developing a multi-sector dynamic model with housing production. On the one hand, firms can sell or collateralize their housing, so a housing bubble helps firms obtain credit to finance their investment and expand production. On the other hand, a boom in the housing sector crowds out labor in the non-housing sector. We show that housing booms can reduce social welfare both in the steady state and in the transitional dynamics only when the production externalities in the non-housing sector are sufficiently large. We quantitatively evaluate our …

Hiv Estimation Using Population-Based Surveys With Non-Response: A Partial Identification Approach, Oyelola A. Adegboye, Tomoki Fujii, Denis H. Y. Leung, Siyu Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

HIV estimation using data from the demographic and health surveys (DHS) is limited by the presence of non-response and test refusals. Conventional adjustments such as imputation require the data to be missing at random. Methods that use instrumental variables allow the possibility that prevalence is different between the respondents and non-respondents, but their performance depends critically on the validity of the instrument. Using Manski's partial identification approach, we form instrumental variable bounds for HIV prevalence from a pool of candidate instruments. Our method does not require all candidate instruments to be valid. We use a simulation study to evaluate and …

Rank-Guaranteed Auctions, Wei He, Jiangtao Li, Weijie Zhong

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a combinatorial ascending auction that is “approximately” optimal, requiring minimal rationality to achieve this level of optimality, and is robust to strategic and distributional uncertainties. Specifically, the auction is rankguaranteed, meaning that for any menu M and any valuation profile, the ex-post revenue is guaranteed to be at least as high as the highest revenue achievable from feasible allocations, taking the (|M| + 1)th-highest valuation for each bundle as the price. Our analysis highlights a crucial aspect of combinatorial auction design, namely, the design of menus. We provide simple and sufficient menus in various settings.

Reading The Candlesticks: An Ok Estimator For Volatility, Jia Li, Dishen Wang, Qiushi Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose an Optimal candlesticK (OK) estimator for the spot volatility using high-frequency candlestick observations. Under a standard infill asymptotic setting, we show that the OK estimator is asymptotically unbiased and has minimal asymptotic variance within a class of linear estimators. Its estimation error can be coupled by a Brownian functional, which permits valid inference. Our theoretical and numerical results suggest that the proposed candlestick-based estimator is much more accurate than the conventional spot volatility estimator based on high-frequency returns. An empirical illustration documents the intraday volatility dynamics of various assets during the Fed chairman's recent congressional testimony.

The Role Of Macroprudential Policies Under Carbon Pricing, Maria Teresa Punzi

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

This paper analyses the effectiveness of macroprudential policy on macro-financial fluctuations when the government enforces carbon pricing to reduce carbon emissions and achieve the net-zero target. A carbon tax policy alone can reduce carbon emissions by 2030, but at the cost of a deep and prolonged recession, with consequential financial instability due to a higher probability of default on entrepreneurs in the brown sector. This result suggests that carbon pricing should be coupled with complementary policies, such as macroprudential policy. In particular, differentiated LTV ratios and differentiated capital requirements that penalize the brown sector in favour of the green sector …

Does Generative Ai Facilitate Investor Trading? Evidence From Chatgpt Outages, Qiang Cheng, Pengkai Lin, Yue Zhao

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

In this paper, we use ChatGPT outages to investigate whether investors rely on generative artificial intelligence (GAI) to perform trading-related tasks and the associated impact on stock price informativeness. We first document a significant decline in stock trading volume during ChatGPT outages and find that the effect is stronger for firms with corporate news released immediately before or during the outages. We further document similar declines in the short-run price impact, return variance, and bid-ask spreads, consistent with a reduction in informed trading during the outage periods. Lastly, we use trading volume changes during outages to construct a firm-level measure …

The Research Of The Non-Financial Factors In The Investment Decision, Wenbiao Hou

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Driven by globalization and technological innovation, the complexity of investment decisions is continuously increasing. While traditional financial factors still play a crucial role in these decisions, an increasing number of real-life cases indicate that investors are relying more on non-financial factors. This paper systematically analyzes the impact of these non-financial factors in the framework of investment decision-making.

This paper employs a mixed research method, incorporating both qualitative and quantitative analyses to ensure comprehensive coverage of the topic. First, it outlines the theoretical basis and development of non-financial factors in investment decisions through a review of prior literature. Next, it collects …

Policy Design For Biodiversity: How Problem Conception Drift Undermines "Fit-For-Purpose" Peatland Conservation, Benjamin Cashore, Ishani Mukherjee, Altaf Virani, Lahiru S. Wijedasa

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

For over two decades, scientists have documented the alarming decline of global Peatland ecosystems, regarded as the planet’s most crucial carbon sinks. The deterioration of these unique wetlands alongside their policy attention presents a puzzle for policy scientists and for students of anticipatory policy design. Two contrasting explanations have emerged. Some argue that pressures from economic globalization compel governments to relax environmental standards, while others point to deficiencies in policy design and implementation. Our paper applies Cashore’s Four Problem Types framework to assess a more nuanced explanation: that failure of global and local policies to curb ecosystem degradation is owing …

Enhancing Student Engagement In Introductory Economics With Interactive Videos And Synthesized Readings In Flipped Learning, Bei Hong, Duan Ning, Magdeleine Lew

Research Collection School Of Economics

A major challenge faced by university economics instructors is to find more time to incorporate active learning into the classroom, which encourages student participation. As a result, more instructors choose to flip their classrooms, in which students are encouraged to perform preparatory reading or watch videos to participate more meaningfully and learn more effectively. This study aims to examine how pre-lecture materials enhance student participation by examining the effectiveness of two types of materials: interactive videos and synthesized readings. The synthesized readings contain essential information extracted from the textbook and is presented in a structured manner with highlighted key points. …

Politically Connected Emncs In A (De)Globalising World: A Review And Future Research Directions, Dongdong Huang, Lai Si Tsui-Auch, Marleen Dieleman, David Gomulya

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Emerging market multinational corporations (EMNCs) have emerged as significant global players, driven by their home country political connections that present both opportunities and challenges. Despite the insights gained from current studies, we still lack a clear conceptualisation of diverse political connections and the distinctiveness of politically connected EMNCs. Our study conducts a comprehensive review to bridge those gaps. We identify and compare two types of political connections, delve into major theories and highlight their main focus, key arguments, mechanisms and outcome predictions. Consequently, we propose a context-mechanism-outcome framework across three contextual levels, emphasising theoretical convergence and divergence between politically connected …

Childlessness, Social Network Profiles In Midlife And Late Adulthood, And Their Implications For Subjective Well-Being, Bussarawan Teerawichitchainan, Dahye Kim, Christine Ho

Research Collection School Of Economics

Objectives: Despite the rising prevalence of individuals reaching advanced age without children, little is known about the diversity of support networks within childless populations. We examine the network profiles of childless adults aged 50+ in Singapore, which observes high childlessness rates despite societal emphasis on familism. Methods: We employ latent class analysis to derive network typology based on a 2022 nationwide survey in Singapore. Additionally, we use logistic regression analyses to investigate the sociodemographic correlates of childless individuals' network types and the associations between these network types and subjective well-being. Results: Childless Singaporeans form a heterogeneous group characterized by different …

Weight Misperceptions And Health Management Via Information Nudges, Lanjie Wang, Xuan Zhang, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh

Research Collection School Of Economics

Being overweight or obese is a serious public health problem. Misperception of one's own weight status and inertia are major obstacles to weight control. To overcome these two problems, we conduct a randomized controlled trial in which participants are presented with the correct weight category based on their body mass index to remove any weight misperception, and then given six biweekly reminders about healthy diet and physical activity via SMS/email. We find that our intervention reduces individuals’ weight misperception and encourages healthier dietary choices. However, it has little impact on their physical activity. We further show that people who were …

Trade Imbalance, Heavy Goods, And Pollution, Jungho Lee, Shang-Jin Wei, Jianhuan Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a new welfare effect of trade surplus. Guided by insight from several fields in economics, we provide evidence that an increase in a country's trade surplus alters the unit shipping costs for its trade and the composition of its imports in ways that induce more pollution in the country in equilibrium. This new form of welfare loss of trade imbalance has not been accounted for in the existing international economics literature

Specifying And Estimating Vector Autoregressions Using Their Eigensystem Representation, Leo Krippner

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

This article introduces the principles and mechanics of the eigensystem vector autoregression (EVAR) framework, where a VAR may be specified and estimated directly via its eigenvalue and eigenvector parameters. Using explicit constraints on the eigensystem permits control of a VAR ís allowable dynamics, which is illustrated empirically with standard and time-varying VAR estimations specified to be always non-explosive.

Essays On High-Frequency Financial Econometric, Qiyuan Li

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of three papers contributing to the theory of estimation and inference of high-frequency financial data. In the second chapter, a general framework is introduced for optimal nonparametric spot volatility estimation based on intraday range data, comprised of the first, highest, lowest, and last prices over a given time interval. Employing a decisiontheoretic approach together with a coupling-type argument, the form of the nonparametric estimator is directly tailored to the specific volatility measure of interest and the relevant loss function. The resulting new optimal estimators offer substantial efficiency gains compared to existing commonly used range-based procedures. The third …

Essays On Weak Identification, Dennis Guo Wei Lim

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation presents a comprehensive examination of inference techniques for weak instrumental variable (IV) models, crucial in addressing endogeneity and bias in econometric analyses. Comprising two interconnected chapters, the research explores innovative methodologies to enhance the reliability and robustness of IV regression estimations. Chapter 1 is concerned with maximizing the power of tests in the many weak IVs setting. This is done by introducing a novel approach that considers a linear combination of jackknife Anderson-Rubin (AR), jackknife Lagrangian multiplier (LM), and orthogonalized jackknife
LM tests for inference in IV regressions with many weak instruments and heteroskedasticity. Following I. Andrews (2016), …

Essays On Spatial Economics And International Trade, Naiyuan Hu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of three papers on spatial economics and international trade. The first paper focuses on spatial inequalities. Educational resources are distributed unevenly and contribute to spatial inequality. A dynamic spatial model with life-cycle elements studies the impacts of location-specific educational resources. Individuals determine where to attend college, weighing distance, expected value of education, and available resources. Locations with more colleges attract more students. As mobility costs increase with age, many graduates stay in the city where they studied, affecting skill composition. Applied to China, it finds that the 2005- 2015 college expansion had minimal welfare impacts and suggests …

Regulatory Protection And The Role Of International Cooperation, Yuan Mei

Research Collection School Of Economics

I develop a general equilibrium framework to analyze the welfare consequences of product regulations and their international harmonization. In my model, raising product standards reduces a negative consumption externality, but also increases the marginal and fixed costs of production. When product standards are set noncooperatively, the effects of standards on other countries' wages and number of firms are not internalized, giving rise to an international inefficiency. The World Trade Organization's nondiscrimination principle of national treatment only partly addresses this inefficiency. Welfare losses from abandoning national treatment average 2.8%, whereas the maximum welfare gains from efficient cooperation average 11.8%.

Better The Devil You Know: Improved Forecasts From Imperfect Models, Dong Hwan Oh, Andrew John Patton

Research Collection School Of Economics

Many important economic decisions are based on a parametric forecasting model that is known to be good but imperfect. We propose methods to improve out-of-sample forecasts from a misspecified model by estimating its parameters using a form of local M estimation (thereby nesting local OLS and local MLE), drawing on information from a state variable that is correlated with the misspecification of the model. We theoretically consider the forecast environments in which our approach is likely to offer improvements over standard methods, and we find significant forecast improvements from applying the proposed method across four distinct empirical analyses including volatility …

Allocating Vehicle Registration Permits, Massimiliano Landi, Domenico Menicucci

Research Collection School Of Economics

We compare social welfare, consumer surplus and profits in two different institutional settings in which an item whose quantity is fixed and controlled (vehicle registration permit) is allocated to the buyers of a complementary good (car). In the first setting, which resembles the way in which vehicle registration permits are allocated in Singapore, the central planner runs a uniform price auction for permits in which the consumers who bid the highest receive the permits and pay the highest losing bid. Then each winning consumer purchases a car from a seller. In the alternative setting, the central planner first allocates the …

The Balance Of Concessions In Trade Agreements, Mostafa Beshkar, Pao-Li Chang, Shenxi Song

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper introduces a quantitative framework to analyze the WTO’s reciprocity principle. Utilizing two polar bargaining environments, we measure terms-of-trade concessions among WTO members and examine how shifts in applied tariffs and economic fundamentals affect bilateral and multilateral balance of concessions. We find significant disparities in concessions, largely driven by the rise in trade imbalances since the early 1990s. Notably, although US-China bilateral tariffs suggest considerable terms-of-trade benefits for China, under a hypothetical balanced trade scenario, their relationship evolves towards near reciprocity following China’s accession to the WTO. Furthermore, in contrast to the significant gains in its relationship with the …

Heat And Observed Economic Activity In The Rich Urban Tropics, Eric Fesselmeyer, Haoming. Liu, Alberto. Salvo, Rhita P B. Simorangkir

Research Collection College of Integrative Studies

We use space-and-time resolved mobility data to assess how heat impacts Singapore, a rich city-state and arguably a harbinger of what is to come in the urbanizing tropics. Singapore’s offices, factories, malls, buses, and trains are widely air conditioned, its public schools less so. We document increased attendance and commuting to workplaces, malls, and the more air-conditioned schools on hotter relative to cooler days, particularly by low-income residents with limited use of adaptive technologies at home. Investment by rich cities may attenuate heat’s pervasive negative consequences on productive outcomes, yet this may worsen the climate emergency in the long run.

Green Transition And Financial Stability: The Role Of Green Monetary And Macroprudential Policies And Vouchers, Ying Tung Chan, Maria Teresa Punzi, Hong Zhao

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

This paper analyzes a mix of alternative policies in supporting the green transition and the phase-out of fossil fuels, without compromising financial stability. An environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (E-DSGE) model with two sectors (green and brown) and endogenous default is developed to assess potential climate-induced financial stability threats that can be mainly generated through physical and transition risks mechanism. Those risks are evaluated through a compound capital depreciation shock and a carbon tax shock. The paper offers several findings. First of all, a too stringent carbon tax would increase the medium-term default rate in both sectors, harming financial stability …

Unintended Consequences Of Universal Basic Income On Living Arrangements: Evidence From The Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Program, Jia Wen Liew

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This paper investigates the impact of the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (APFD), a form of universal basic income, on family structures. Using the Synthetic Control Method and data from the Annual Social and Economic supplement of the Current Population Survey, I assess how the introduction of the APFD payments in 1982 affected children’s living arrangements, as well as how it affected adults’ marital status and living arrangements. I find that the introduction of the APFD has several significant impacts on family structures. Specifically, female children and especially those aged 13 to 18 in Alaska are more likely to be living …

Assessing The Impacts Of The Us-China Trade War On Asian Economies, Ruoqing Chen

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China have reverberated globally, sparking concerns about economic stability and growth. What are the most affected industries and economies among Asia? What will happen if the US and China further raise their tariffs? Are there any useful trade policy adjustments for the Asian economies to improve their lots under the not-so-optimistic world trade climate? This paper employs a multi-country, multi-industry, general equilibrium model to analyze the impacts of the US-China trade war and potential further tariff war on 13 Asian regions across 20 industries in the year 2017. The results indicate …

Housing Markets Since Shapley And Scarf, Mustafa Oguz Afacan, Gaoji Hu, Jiangtao Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

Shapley and Scarf (1974) appeared in the first issue of the Journal of Mathematical Economics, and is one of the journal’s most impactful publications. As we approach the remarkable milestone of the journal’s 50th anniversary (1974–2024), this article serves as a commemorative exploration of Shapley and Scarf (1974) and the extensive body of literature that follows it.

Wild Bootstrap Inference For Instrumental Variables Regressions With Weak And Few Clusters, Wenjie Wang, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the wild bootstrap inference for instrumental variable regressions under an alternative asymptotic framework that the number of independent clusters is fixed, the size of each cluster diverges to infinity, and the within cluster dependence is sufficiently weak. We first show that the wild bootstrap Wald test controls size asymptotically up to a small error as long as the parameters of endogenous variables are strongly identified in at least one of the clusters. Second, we establish the conditions for the bootstrap tests to have power against local alternatives. We further develop a wild bootstrap Anderson–Rubin test for the full-vector …

Hiv Estimation Using Population Based Surveys With Non-Response: A Partial Identification Approach, Oyelola A Adegboye, Tomoki Fujii, Denis H. Y. Leung, Siyu Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

HIV estimation using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) is lim-ited by the presence of non-response and test refusals. Conventional adjustments such as imputation require the data to be missing at random. Methods that use instrumental variables allow the possibility that prevalence is different between the respondents and non-respondents, but their performance depends critically on the validity of the instru-ment. Using Manski’s partial identification approach, we form instrumental variable bounds for HIV prevalence from a pool of candidate instruments. Our method does not require all candidate instruments to be valid. We use a simulation study to evaluate and …

Uniform Nonparametric Inference For Spatially Dependent Panel Data, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao, Wenyu Zhou

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article proposes a uniform functional inference method for nonparametric regressions in a panel-data setting that features general unknown forms of spatio-temporal dependence. The method requires a long time span, but does not impose any restriction on the size of the cross section or the strength of spatial correlation. The uniform inference is justified via a new growing-dimensional Gaussian coupling theory for spatio-temporally dependent panels. We apply the method in two empirical settings. One concerns the nonparametric relationship between asset price volatility and trading volume as depicted by the mixture of distribution hypothesis. The other pertains to testing the rationality …