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Articles 1651 - 1680 of 2456

Full-Text Articles in Economics

On The Intraday Periodicity Duration Adjustment Of High-Frequency Data, Wu Zhengxiao Mar 2012

On The Intraday Periodicity Duration Adjustment Of High-Frequency Data, Wu Zhengxiao

Research Collection School Of Economics

In the last decade, intensive studies on modeling high frequency financial data at the transaction level have been conducted. In the analysis of high-frequency duration data, it is often the first step to remove the intraday periodicity. Currently the most popular adjustment procedure is the cubic spline procedure proposed by Engle and Russell (1998). In this article, we first carry out a simulation study and show that the performance of the cubic spline procedure is not entirely satisfactory. Then we define periodicity point processes rigorously and prove a time change theorem. A new intraday periodic adjustment procedure is then proposed …

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Finding The Medicine For Healthcare, Knowledge@Smu Feb 2012

Finding The Medicine For Healthcare, Knowledge@Smu

Knowledge@SMU

Health care costs are escalating rapidly in countries with aging populations and is often a source of headache for policymakers. Singapore, which has one of the world’s acclaimed healthcare systems, also faces the same issues of balancing social and economic objectives in its healthcare system. A healthcare expert has now proposed a radical policy shift for the Republic to meet the medical needs of its citizens.

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When To Say “I Love You”: Before Or After Sex?, Knowledge@Smu Feb 2012

When To Say “I Love You”: Before Or After Sex?, Knowledge@Smu

Knowledge@SMU

There are no hard and fast rules on when one should say 'I love you', or who should say it first. Yet, the implications either way can be profound. Taking an evolutionary-economics perspective, these words, for men, could be taken as "bids for sexual access". Women, on the other hand, might view it differently, depending on whether the words were uttered before or after sex. SMU associate professor Norman Li examines what it is that romantic partners really mean when they say "love".

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A Tilt In Favour Of The Older Generation, Less Fortunate, Tan K. B. Eugene Feb 2012

A Tilt In Favour Of The Older Generation, Less Fortunate, Tan K. B. Eugene

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

Assistant Professor of Law Eugene Tan writes that although there are generally no significant handouts, offsets or goodies, Budget 2012 addresses some of the key genuine concerns of Singaporeans during the May 2011 General Election. It is also expected to generate a surplus of S$1.3 billion at a time when many advanced economies are in recession and with significant deficits.

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Bayesian Hypothesis Testing In Latent Variable Models, Yong Li, Jun Yu Feb 2012

Bayesian Hypothesis Testing In Latent Variable Models, Yong Li, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Hypothesis testing using Bayes factors (BFs) is known not to be well defined under the improper prior. In the context of latent variable models, an additional problem with BFs is that they are difficult to compute. In this paper, a new Bayesian method, based on the decision theory and the EM algorithm, is introduced to test a point hypothesis in latent variable models. The new statistic is a by-product of the Bayesian MCMC output and, hence, easy to compute. It is shown that the new statistic is appropriately defined under improper priors because the method employs a continuous loss function. …

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The Et Interview: A Conversation With Professor Eric Ghysels, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu Feb 2012

The Et Interview: A Conversation With Professor Eric Ghysels, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Eric Ghysels is the Bernstein Distinguished Professor of Economics and Professor of Finance at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. In 2008, Eric Ghysels and Robert Engle (2003 Nobel co-Laureate in Economic Science with Clive Granger) founded the Society for Financial Econometrics (SoFiE), establishing a global network of academics and practitioners dedicated to the fast-growing field of financial econometrics. In June 2010, Eric visited the Centre for Financial Econometrics (CoFiE) and the Sim Kee Boon Institute (SKBI) of Financial Economics at Singapore Management University. During his visit we conversed with him about SoFiE and the growing toolroom of financial …

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Testing For Common Trends In Semi-Parametric Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects, Yonghui Zhang, Liangjun Su, Peter C. B. Phillips Feb 2012

Testing For Common Trends In Semi-Parametric Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects, Yonghui Zhang, Liangjun Su, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a non-parametric test for common trends in semi-parametric panel data models with fixed effects based on a measure of non-parametric goodness-of-fit (R2). We first estimate the model under the null hypothesis of common trends by the method of profile least squares, and obtain the augmented residual which consistently estimates the sum of the fixed effect and the disturbance under the null. Then we run a local linear regression of the augmented residuals on a time trend and calculate the non-parametric R2 for each cross-section unit. The proposed test statistic is obtained by averaging all cross-sectional non-parametric R2s, …

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Beyond Catch-Up To New Growth Sources, Hian Teck Hoon Feb 2012

Beyond Catch-Up To New Growth Sources, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

SMU Professor of Economics Hoon Hian Teck gave his take on the impact of the Budget announced last Friday and wrote that the 2012 Budget, in essence, recognises that Singapore is now making a transition from a phase of catch-up growth to being a mature economy. In this mature phase, Singapore needs new sources of growth, and policy interventions are necessary to boost the employability and wage earnings of low-wage and older workers. Professor Hoon is also Associate Dean at the SMU School of Economics.

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Pricing For Goodwill: A Threshold Quantile Regression Approach, Heng Ju, Liangjun Su, Pai Xu Feb 2012

Pricing For Goodwill: A Threshold Quantile Regression Approach, Heng Ju, Liangjun Su, Pai Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

In the absence of other effective trust systems, an agent's reputation status becomes a critical factor in online transactions. A higher reputation category may give sellers an advantage in competition on online trading platforms. It is also possible that such reputation benefits provide sufficient incentives for sellers to adjust their pricing behavior. We here propose a simple economic model in which an online seller maximizes the sum of the profit from current sales and the possible future gain from a targeted higher reputation level. We show that the model can predict a jump in optimal pricing behavior. We adopt a …

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Designing And Implementing An Evaluation Of A National Work Support Program, Kong Weng Ho, Irene Y. H. Ng, Thartmalingam Nesamani, Alex Lee, Tee Liang Ngiam Feb 2012

Designing And Implementing An Evaluation Of A National Work Support Program, Kong Weng Ho, Irene Y. H. Ng, Thartmalingam Nesamani, Alex Lee, Tee Liang Ngiam

Research Collection School Of Economics

Welfare reforms in the 1990s have shifted governments around the world towards financial assistance conditional on work. While large-scale rigorous research on welfare-to-work programs has demonstrated effectiveness towards employment in other countries, no such micro-level evaluation of a policy has ever been conducted in Singapore. This article describes the process of developing a large experimental evaluation of the Work Support Program, which the Ministry of Community Development, Youth and Sports started in 2006. The lessons learned from planning and implementing the research can be helpful to future researchers in negotiating long-term rigorous evaluations in an environment where collaborators lack sufficient …

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In Support Of The Trips Agreement, Amanda Jakobsson, Paul S. Segerstrom Feb 2012

In Support Of The Trips Agreement, Amanda Jakobsson, Paul S. Segerstrom

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper challenges the conventional wisdom that the TRIPs agreement is bad for developing countries. We present a dynamic general equilibrium model of North-South trade that allows us to study the implications of stronger intellectual property rights (IPR) protection and simultaneous trade liberalization. In our model, stronger IPR protection in the South (TRIPs) leads to more innovation in the North, more technology transfer to the South and higher long-run southern consumer welfare. The South also benefits from trade liberalization but the welfare gains from TRIPs are considerably larger.

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Micro-Finance Competition With Motivated Mfis, Brishti Guha, Prabal Roy Chowdhury Feb 2012

Micro-Finance Competition With Motivated Mfis, Brishti Guha, Prabal Roy Chowdhury

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we examine the effect of increased MFI competition, focusing on its implications for borrower targeting, both in the presence and the absence of double-dipping. In the absence of competition we find that the loans are more likely to go to relatively richer borrowers whenever inequality is not too large, and the technology is sufficiently convex. In the presence of competition, the results depend on whether double-dipping is feasible or not. In case double-dipping is not feasible, we find that the MFIs necessarily target the richer borrowers. Interestingly, it turns out that double-dipping may encourage the MFIs to …

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A Household-Level Decomposition Of The White-Black Homeownership Gap, Eric Fesselmeyer, Kien T. Le, Kiat Ying Seah Jan 2012

A Household-Level Decomposition Of The White-Black Homeownership Gap, Eric Fesselmeyer, Kien T. Le, Kiat Ying Seah

Research Collection College of Integrative Studies

This paper uses a semiparametric homeownership model to estimate and to decompose the household-level white-black homeownership gap into an endowment component and a residual component across the distribution of homeownership rates. We find that the racial gap differs across homeownership rates and that studies that examine the gap only at the mean may be misleading. We also find that although household characteristics explain the homeownership gap for most households, there is a substantial portion of the gap that remains unexplained for households with a very low propensity to own homes. A comparison of the estimates from the semiparametric model and …

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Risk Management In A Volatile Market, Singapore Management University Jan 2012

Risk Management In A Volatile Market, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

As stock markets around the world whipsaw in a manner that bewilders even the seasoned trader, an academic has suggested for financial institutions to look more closely at linking dynamic loss tail distributions to contagion modeling for effective risk management.

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Sense And Sustainability, Ken Hickson Jan 2012

Sense And Sustainability, Ken Hickson

Social Space

Like the proverbial chicken and egg, climate change and sustainability are inextricably linked; it is impossible to decide which comes first, but urgent solutions are needed. Ken Hickson delivers a timely lesson on the four E’s of sustainability—energy, environment, economics and ethics.

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Technical Analysis: An Asian Perspective, Siqin Liaw Jan 2012

Technical Analysis: An Asian Perspective, Siqin Liaw

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Technical analysis, namely the moving average rule and the channel rule, is applied to the currency of an Asian managed floating exchange rate regime (USD/SGD) to see if opportunities for profitable trading exist. Instead of using only daily or monthly data, higher frequency time frames of 10, 15, 30 and 60 minutes are analyzed. Profitable strategies (if any) will be broken down and analyzed within smaller time frames to see if the profits are specifically in sample.

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Forecasting Inflation In Asian Economies, Freddy Chian Fatt Liew Jan 2012

Forecasting Inflation In Asian Economies, Freddy Chian Fatt Liew

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This paper surveys the recent literature on inflation forecasting and conducts an extensive empirical analysis on forecasting inflation in Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong paying particular attention to whether the inflation-markup theory can help to forecast inflation. We first review the relative performance of different predictors in forecasting h-quarter ahead inflation using single equations. These models include the autoregressive model and bivariate Philips curve models. The predictors are selected from business activity, financial activity, trade activity, labour market, interest rate market, money market, exchange rate market and global commodity market variables. We then evaluate a vector autoregressive inflation-markup …

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Three Econometric Essays On Continuous Time Models, Xiaohu Wang Jan 2012

Three Econometric Essays On Continuous Time Models, Xiaohu Wang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Multivariate continuous time models are now widely used in economics and finance. Empirical applications typically rely on some process of discretization so that the system may be estimated with discrete data. The Chapter 2 introduces a framework for discretizing linear multivariate continuous time systems that includes the commonly used Euler and trapezoidal approximations as special cases and leads to a general class of estimators for the mean reversion matrix. Asymptotic distributions and bias formulae are obtained for estimates of the mean reversion parameter. Explicit expressions are given for the discretization bias and its relationship to estimation bias in both multivariate …

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A Household-Level Decomposition Of The White-Black Homeownership Gap, Eric Fesselmeyer, Kien T. Le, Kiat Ying Seah Jan 2012

A Household-Level Decomposition Of The White-Black Homeownership Gap, Eric Fesselmeyer, Kien T. Le, Kiat Ying Seah

Research Collection College of Integrative Studies

This paper uses a semiparametric homeownership model to estimate and to decompose the household-level white-black homeownership gap into an endowment component and a residual component across the distribution of homeownership rates. We find that the racial gap differs across homeownership rates and that studies that examine the gap only at the mean may be misleading. We also find that although household characteristics explain the homeownership gap for most households, there is a substantial portion of the gap that remains unexplained for households with a very low propensity to own homes. A comparison of the estimates from the semiparametric model and …

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What Are Analysts Really Good At?, Ohad Kadan, Leonardo Madureira, Rong Wang, Tzachi. Zach Jan 2012

What Are Analysts Really Good At?, Ohad Kadan, Leonardo Madureira, Rong Wang, Tzachi. Zach

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Sell-side analysts employ different benchmarks when defining their stock recommendations. Forexample, a ‘buy’ for some brokers means the stock is expected to outperform its peers in the same sector(“industry benchmarkers”), while for other brokers it means the stock is expected to outperform themarket (“market benchmarkers”), or just some absolute return (“total benchmarkers”). We use thesebenchmarks to analyze the role of stock picking, industry picking and market timing in contributing to theperformance of stock recommendations. We are able to do so given that different benchmarks suggest theuse of different sets of abilities. Analysis of the relation between analysts’ recommendations and theirlong-term …

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Single Peakedness And Giffen Demand, Massimiliano Landi Jan 2012

Single Peakedness And Giffen Demand, Massimiliano Landi

Research Collection School Of Economics

I provide a simple example of a single peaked utility function that generates a Giffen demand. The utility function is smooth, non piecewise defined, strictly concave but not globally increasing. A full characterization of the parameter conditions under which the Giffen demand arises is provided. In addition the properties of the demand function are studied: I find that the inferior commodity with a Giffen demand must be cheaper relatively to a substitute and that Giffen demand arises at relatively low levels of income. However it is not required that the share of income spent on that commodity be large.

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A Spatial Analysis Of The Italian Second Republic, Second Version, Massimiliano Landi, Ricardo Pelizzo Jan 2012

A Spatial Analysis Of The Italian Second Republic, Second Version, Massimiliano Landi, Ricardo Pelizzo

Research Collection School Of Economics

We apply the Optimal Classification method to a newly created dataset to provide a spatial map of the Italian Second Republic (1996-2008). We find a bi-dimensional political space in the XIII Legislature and virtually a one dimensional political space in the XIV and XV Legislatures. In addition, the main dimension is explained along the dimension government opposition rather than on the traditional left and right dimension. During the Second Republic, Italy experienced changes in electoral system and in the format of the parties. We use our data to discuss the implications of either change on the dimensionality space. We find …

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One Mandarin Benefits The Whole Clan: Hometown Infrastructure And Nepotism In An Autocracy, Kieu-Trang Nguyen, Quoc-Anh Do, Anh Tran Jan 2012

One Mandarin Benefits The Whole Clan: Hometown Infrastructure And Nepotism In An Autocracy, Kieu-Trang Nguyen, Quoc-Anh Do, Anh Tran

Research Collection School Of Economics

Duplicate record, see https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/1383. This paper studies nepotism by government officials in an authoritarian regime. We collect a unique dataset of political promotions of officials in Vietnam and estimate their impact on public infrastructure in their hometowns. We find strong positive effects on several outcomes, some with lags, including roads to villages, marketplaces, clean water access, preschools, irrigation, and local radio broadcasters, as well as the hometown’s propensity to benefit from the State’s “poor commune support program”. Nepotism is not limited to only top-level officials, pervasive even among those without direct authority over hometown budgets, stronger when the hometown chairperson’s …

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Pirates And Fishermen: Is Less Patrolling Always Bad?, Brishti Guha Jan 2012

Pirates And Fishermen: Is Less Patrolling Always Bad?, Brishti Guha

Research Collection School Of Economics

Motivated by the Somali fishermen–pirates, I explore the time allocation decision of potential pirates between piracy and an alternative non-violent occupation, fishing, when the returns of both piracy and fishing are sensitive to patrolling intensity. For a range of parameters, the static model yields multiple equilibria, an “efficient” one with no patrolling and low piracy, a less efficient equilibrium with intermediate levels of both piracy and patrolling and a highly inefficient high-patrolling high-piracy equilibrium. Analyzing the dynamic analogue, I obtain the surprising result that sufficiently low patrolling can be a good strategy.

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Quasi-Option Value Under Strategic Interactions, Tomoki Fujii, Ryuichiro Ishikawa Jan 2012

Quasi-Option Value Under Strategic Interactions, Tomoki Fujii, Ryuichiro Ishikawa

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider a simple two-period model of irreversible investment under strategic interactions between two players. In this setup, we show that the quasi-option value may cause some conceptual difficulties. In case of asymmetric information, decentralized investment decisions fail to induce first-best allocations. Therefore a regulator may not be able to exercise the option to delay the decision to develop. We also show that information-induced inefficiency may arise in a game situation and that under certain assumptions inefficiency can be eliminated by sending asymmetric information to the players, even when the regulator faces informational constraints. Our model is potentially applicable to …

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One Mandarin Benefits The Whole Clan: Hometown Infrastructure And Nepotism In An Autocracy, Kieu-Trang Nguyen, Quoc-Anh Do, Anh Tran Jan 2012

One Mandarin Benefits The Whole Clan: Hometown Infrastructure And Nepotism In An Autocracy, Kieu-Trang Nguyen, Quoc-Anh Do, Anh Tran

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies nepotism by government officials in an authoritarian regime. We collect a unique dataset of political promotions of officials in Vietnam and estimate their impact on public infrastructure in their hometowns. We find strong positive effects on several outcomes, some with lags, including roads to villages, marketplaces, clean water access, preschools, irrigation, and local radio broadcasters, as well as the hometown’s propensity to benefit from the State’s “poor commune support program”. Nepotism is not limited to only top-level officials, pervasive even among those without direct authority over hometown budgets, stronger when the hometown chairperson’s and promoted official’s ages …

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Peer Transparency In Teams: Does It Help Or Hinder Incentives?, Parimal Bag, Nona Pepito Jan 2012

Peer Transparency In Teams: Does It Help Or Hinder Incentives?, Parimal Bag, Nona Pepito

Research Collection School Of Economics

In a joint project involving two players of a two-round effort investment game with complementary efforts, transparency, by allowing players to observe each other's efforts, achieves at least as much, and sometimes more, collective and individual efforts relative to a nontransparent environment. Without transparency, multiple equilibria can arise, and transparency elimites the inferior equilibria. When full cooperation arises only under transparency, it occurs gradually: No worker sinks in the maximum amount of effort in the first round, preferring instead to smooth out contributions over time. If the players' efforts are substitutes, transparency makes no difference to equilibrium efforts.

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An Institutional Perspective And The Role Of The State For Chinese Ofdi, Bing Ren, Hao Liang, Ying Zheng Jan 2012

An Institutional Perspective And The Role Of The State For Chinese Ofdi, Bing Ren, Hao Liang, Ying Zheng

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Napoleon called China a ‘sleeping dragon’, but recent economic developments as China enters the twenty-first century show that the dragon is awakening. China has maintained strong economic growth since 1979 and sustained a GDP increase of more than 9 percent over the years. The total volume of economic output increased from 2.8 percent in 1970 to 7.23 percent in 2008, ranking China as the third largest economy in the world (United Nation Statistics Division Statistical Databases). China launched its ‘Go Global’ policy in 1999 to encourage highperforming Chinese firms to invest abroad and upgrade their global competence. Since then, outward …

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Public Housing: Appreciating Assets?, Sock Yong Phang Jan 2012

Public Housing: Appreciating Assets?, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The topic of HDB housing is one that is close to the hearts and minds of the majority of Singaporeans. The first part of the presentation will provide a brief overview of price trends in Singapore’s housing sector. The second part delves into the market and policy factors behind the rapid increase in HDB housing prices since 2006. The monograph “Reflections on Housing a Nation” published by the Ministry of National Development in February 2011, contains numerous statements on the goals of housing policy. Briefly, the government is committed to affordable home ownership as a major pillar of Singapore’s public …

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Supply Elasticity Of Housing, Kyunghwan Kim, Sock-Yong Phang, Susan Wachter Jan 2012

Supply Elasticity Of Housing, Kyunghwan Kim, Sock-Yong Phang, Susan Wachter

Research Collection School Of Economics

The supply elasticity of housing determines how quickly house prices respond to economic shocks and this has many real economic consequences. Malpezzi and Maclennan (2001) describes its importance in housing market analysis: „most housing models, and most policy analysis hinge on explicit or implicit estimates of the price elasticity of supply of housing: does the market respond to demand side shocks with more supply or higher prices‟. However, as pointed out by Quigley (1979), there exist real analytical difficulties in modeling the supply of housing. Attempting to measure the flow of housing services provided by the stock of housing is …

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