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Full-Text Articles in Economics

Favorite-Longshot Bias In Pari-Mutuel Betting: An Evolutionary Explanation, Atsushi Kajii, Takahiro Watanabe Aug 2017

Favorite-Longshot Bias In Pari-Mutuel Betting: An Evolutionary Explanation, Atsushi Kajii, Takahiro Watanabe

Research Collection School Of Economics

Favorite-longshot bias (FLB) refers to an observed tendency whereby “longshots” are overvalued and favorites are undervalued. We offer an evolutionary explanation for FLB in pari-mutuel betting using a simple market model. A bettor is forced to quit with some probability if his total net gain in one day is negative. Because of a positive track take, the expected returns of any strategy are negative, and so every agent must eventually lose and disappear in the long run. Those who favor longshots have a better chance of getting ahead with rare but large gains, enabling them to survive for longer than …

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On The Relationship Between Household Wealth And Entrepreneurship, Jungho Lee Aug 2017

On The Relationship Between Household Wealth And Entrepreneurship, Jungho Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

Motivated by a substantial number of startup owners with negative household net worth, I present a model that incorporates credit borrowing into Evans and Jovanovic [1989]. The estimated model generates no relationship between household wealth and the propensity for business entry. Ignoring credit borrowing for potential business owners substantially overstates the efficiency loss from financial constraints in business entry. However, the efficiency loss in investments by the entrants is large even if credit borrowing is allowed. Individuals who start a business once credit borrowing is available are those whose business ideas are of a high-enough quality to compensate high financing …

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Every Random Choice Rule Is Backwards-Induction Rationalizable, Jiangtao Li, Rui Tang Jul 2017

Every Random Choice Rule Is Backwards-Induction Rationalizable, Jiangtao Li, Rui Tang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Motivated by the literature on random choice and in particular the random utility models, we extend the analysis in Bossert and Sprumont (2013) to include the possibility that players exhibit stochastic preferences over alternatives. We prove that every random choice rule is backwards-induction rationalizable.

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Growing Through The Merger And Acquisition, Jianhuan Xu Jul 2017

Growing Through The Merger And Acquisition, Jianhuan Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The paper studies with an endogenous growth model how the merger and acquisition (M&A) affects the aggregate growth rate. We model the M&A as a capital reallocation process, which can increase both productivity and growth rates of firms. The model is tractable and greatly consistent with patterns observed in the M&A at the micro level. Matching our model to the data, we find that prohibiting the M&A would lead to the reduction of the aggregate growth rate of US economy by 0.1% and the reduction of the aggregate TFP by 5%.

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Analysis Of Spatial Data With A Nested Correlation Structure: An Estimating Equations Approach., Oyelola A. Adegboye, Denis H. Y. Leung, You-Gan Wang Jul 2017

Analysis Of Spatial Data With A Nested Correlation Structure: An Estimating Equations Approach., Oyelola A. Adegboye, Denis H. Y. Leung, You-Gan Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Spatial statistical analyses are often used to study the link between environmental factors and the incidence of diseases. In modelling spatial data, the existence of spatial correlation between observations must be considered. However, in many situations, the exact form of the spatial correlation is unknown. This paper studies environmental factors that might influence the incidence of malaria in Afghanistan. We assume that spatial correlation may be induced by multiple latent sources. Our method is based on a generalized estimating equation of the marginal mean of disease incidence, as a function of the geographical factors and the spatial correlation. Instead of …

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Hedging And Pricing Rent Risk With Search Frictions, Briana Chang, Hyunsoo Choi, Harrison Hong, Jeffrey Kubik Jul 2017

Hedging And Pricing Rent Risk With Search Frictions, Briana Chang, Hyunsoo Choi, Harrison Hong, Jeffrey Kubik

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The desire of risk-averse households to hedge rent risk is thought to increase home ownership and prices. While evidence for the ownership implication is compelling, support for the price effect is mixed. We show that an important reason is search frictions. Rent risk reduces outside options, leading to less-picky buyers and worse home/buyer matches. This attenuates the rise in the price-to-rent ratio that would otherwise occur without frictions. Consistent with our model, a house remains on the market for fewer days when rent risk is higher. Accounting for frictions significantly increases the effect of rent risk on home prices.

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Hedging And Pricing Rent Risk With Search Frictions, Briana Chang, Hyunsoo Choi, Harrison Hong, Jeffrey Kubik Jul 2017

Hedging And Pricing Rent Risk With Search Frictions, Briana Chang, Hyunsoo Choi, Harrison Hong, Jeffrey Kubik

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The desire of risk-averse households to hedge rent risk is thought to increase home ownership and prices. While evidence for the ownership implication is compelling, support for the price effect is mixed. We show that an important reason is search frictions. Rent risk reduces outside options, leading to less-picky buyers and worse home/buyer matches. This attenuates the rise in the price-to-rent ratio that would otherwise occur without frictions. Consistent with our model, a house remains on the market for fewer days when rent risk is higher. Accounting for frictions significantly increases the effect of rent risk on home prices.

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Forecasting Stock Returns In Good And Bad Times: The Role Of Market States, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou Jul 2017

Forecasting Stock Returns In Good And Bad Times: The Role Of Market States, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper proposes a two-state predictive regression model and shows that stock market 12-month return (TMR), the time-series momentum predictor of Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen (2012), forecasts the aggregate stock market negatively in good times and positively in bad times. The out-of-sample R-squares are 0.96% and 1.72% in good and bad times, or 1.28% and 1.41% in NBER economic expansions and recessions, respectively. The TMR predictability pattern holds in the cross-section of U.S. stocks and the international markets. Our study shows that the absence of return predictability in good times, an important finding of recent studies, is largely driven by …

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Fertility And Rural Electrification In Bangladesh, Tomoki Fujii, Abu S. Shonchoy Jul 2017

Fertility And Rural Electrification In Bangladesh, Tomoki Fujii, Abu S. Shonchoy

Research Collection School Of Economics

We use a household-level panel dataset from Bangladesh to examine the household-level relationship between fertility and the access to electricity. We find that the household's access to electricity reduces the change in the number of children by about 0.1 to 0.25 children in a period of five years in most estimates. This finding also applies to retrospective panel data and is robust to the choice of covariates and estimation methods. Our finding passes falsification test and corroborates with the predictions of our theoretical model on the households' time use and consumption pattern.

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Growing Through The Merger And Acquisition, Jianhuan Xu Jul 2017

Growing Through The Merger And Acquisition, Jianhuan Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The paper studies with an endogenous growth model how the merger and acquisition (M&A) affects the aggregate growth rate. We model the M&A as a capital reallocation process, which can increase both productivity and growth rates of firms. The model is tractable and greatly consistent with patterns observed in the M&A at the micro level. Matching our model to the data, we find that prohibiting the M&A would lead to the reduction of the aggregate growth rate of US economy by 0.1% and the reduction of the aggregate TFP by 5%.

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Asean In 2025, Singapore Management University Jun 2017

Asean In 2025, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Will ASEAN ever progress beyond being a forum to discuss, and sometimes settle, differences?

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China’S Pearl River Delta Development: A Game Changer For Hong Kong, Singapore Management University Jun 2017

China’S Pearl River Delta Development: A Game Changer For Hong Kong, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

“Hong Kong government has to think out of the box and take initiative to lead Hong Kong to break the bottle neck in economy development,” said Dr. Fang Zhou, Research Director of One Country Two Systems Research Institute (OCTSRI), a non-government public policy think tank in Hong Kong, at a seminar organized by Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics and Finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong in November 2016.

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Indirect Inference In Spatial Autoregression, Maria Kyriacou, Peter C. B. Phillips, Francesca Rossi Jun 2017

Indirect Inference In Spatial Autoregression, Maria Kyriacou, Peter C. B. Phillips, Francesca Rossi

Research Collection School Of Economics

Ordinary least-squares (OLS) is well known to produce an inconsistent estimator of the spatial parameter in pure spatial autoregression (SAR). In this paper, we explore the potential of indirect inference to correct the inconsistency of OLS. Under broad conditions, it is shown that indirect inference (II) based on OLS produces consistent and asymptotically normal estimates in pure SAR regression. The II estimator used here is robust to departures from normal disturbances and is computationally straightforward compared with quasi-maximum likelihood (QML). Monte Carlo experiments based on various specifications of the weight matrix show that: (a) the II estimator displays little bias …

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Liquidity In A Market For Unique Assets: Specified Pool And To-Be-Announced Trading In The Mortgage-Backed Securities Market, Pengjie Gao, Paul Schultz, Zhaogang Song Jun 2017

Liquidity In A Market For Unique Assets: Specified Pool And To-Be-Announced Trading In The Mortgage-Backed Securities Market, Pengjie Gao, Paul Schultz, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) trade simultaneously in a market for specified pools (SPs) and in the to-be-announced (TBA) forward market. TBA trading creates liquidity by allowing thousands of different MBS to be traded in a handful of TBA contracts. SPs that are eligible to be traded as TBAs have significantly lower trading costs than other SPs. We present evidence that TBA eligibility, in addition to characteristics of TBA-eligible SPs, lowers trading costs. We show that dealers hedge SP inventory with TBA trades, and they are more likely to prearrange trades in SPs that are difficult to hedge.

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Industry Integration And Stock Price Synchronicity, Hao Cheng, Kian Guan Lim, Tien Foo Sing, Long Wang Jun 2017

Industry Integration And Stock Price Synchronicity, Hao Cheng, Kian Guan Lim, Tien Foo Sing, Long Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper provides an alternative explanation of the negative relationship between price synchronicity and proprietary right protection that are uncorrelated to the information hypothesis. Using empirical data for 40 countries, we show that stock market volatility and firm size have significant impact on stock price synchronicity. We find significant correlations of international R2 disparity with industry structure integrations. The derived industry integration indices that capture industry correlations significantly explain cross-sectional and temporal variations in price synchronicity. The results imply that tighter industry integration leads to higher R2, and also explain away the property rights factor found in the information hypothesis.

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Indirect Inference In Spatial Autoregression, Maria Kyriacou, Peter C. B. Phillips, Francesca Rossi Jun 2017

Indirect Inference In Spatial Autoregression, Maria Kyriacou, Peter C. B. Phillips, Francesca Rossi

Research Collection School Of Economics

Ordinary least-squares (OLS) is well known to produce an inconsistent estimator of the spatial parameter in pure spatial autoregression (SAR). In this paper, we explore the potential of indirect inference to correct the inconsistency of OLS. Under broad conditions, it is shown that indirect inference (II) based on OLS produces consistent and asymptotically normal estimates in pure SAR regression. The II estimator used here is robust to departures from normal disturbances and is computationally straightforward compared with quasi-maximum likelihood (QML). Monte Carlo experiments based on various specifications of the weight matrix show that: (a) the II estimator displays little bias …

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Trump And Asia, Singapore Management University May 2017

Trump And Asia, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

The American president is off to an uncertain start in his first 100 days in office but his administration could yet develop a coherent foreign policy

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How To Measure Well-Being At Work And Why It Matters, Singapore Management University May 2017

How To Measure Well-Being At Work And Why It Matters, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Supported staff are key drivers of high performing workplaces

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The Revival Of The Philippine Economy, Cesar V. Purisima, Philip Charles Zerrillo May 2017

The Revival Of The Philippine Economy, Cesar V. Purisima, Philip Charles Zerrillo

Asian Management Insights

The former Secretary of Finance for the Philippines and Chair of the Economic Development Cluster from 2010 to 2016, Cesar V. Purisima, talks about the turning around of the Philippine economy and restoring investor confidence, in this interview with Philip Zerrillo.

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Harnessing The Youth Bulge, Sarah Harper May 2017

Harnessing The Youth Bulge, Sarah Harper

Asian Management Insights

How Asia can take advantage of its changing age composition.

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The Value Of Trading Relations In Turbulent Times, Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani, Zhaogang Song May 2017

The Value Of Trading Relations In Turbulent Times, Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper investigates how dealers’ trading relations shape their trading behavior in the corporate bond market. Dealers charge lower spreads to dealers with whom they have the strongest ties and more so during periods of market turmoil. Systemically important dealers exploit their connections at the expense of peripheral dealers as well as clients, charging higher markups than to other core dealers. Also, intermediation chains lengthened by 20% following the collapse of a flagship dealer in 2008 and even more for institutions strongly connected to this dealer. Finally, dealers drastically reduced their inventory during the crisis.

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On Time-Varying Factor Models: Estimation And Testing, Liangjun Su, Xia Wang May 2017

On Time-Varying Factor Models: Estimation And Testing, Liangjun Su, Xia Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Conventional factor models assume that factor loadings are fixed over a long horizon of time, which appears overly restrictive and unrealistic in applications. In this paper, we introduce a time-varying factor model where factor loadings are allowed to change smoothly over time. We propose a local version of the principal component method to estimate the latent factors and time-varying factor loadings simultaneously. We establish the limiting distributions of the estimated factors and factor loadings in the standard large N and large T framework. We also propose a BIC-type information criterion to determine the number of factors, which can be used …

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A Specification Test Based On The Mcmc Output, Yong Li, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng May 2017

A Specification Test Based On The Mcmc Output, Yong Li, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

A test statistic is proposed to assess themodel specification after the model is estimated by Bayesian MCMC methods. Thenew test is motivated from the power enhancement technique of Fan, Liao and Yao(2015). It combines a component (J1) that tests anull point hypothesis in an expanded model and a power enhancement component (J0) obtained from the null model. It is shown that J0 converges to zero when the null model is correctly specified anddiverges when the null model is misspecified. Also shown is that J1 is asymptotically X2-distributed, suggesting that theproposed test is asymptotically pivotal, when the null model is correctlyspecified. …

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In-Fill Asymptotic Theory For Structural Break Point In Autoregression: A Unified Theory, Liang Jiang, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu May 2017

In-Fill Asymptotic Theory For Structural Break Point In Autoregression: A Unified Theory, Liang Jiang, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper obtains the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimatorof structural break point in the OrnsteinñUhlenbeck process when a continuousrecord is available. The exact distribution is asymmetric, tri-modal, dependenton the initial condition. These three properties are also found in the önite sampledistribution of the least squares (LS) estimator of structural break point inautoregressive (AR) models. Motivated by these observations, the paper then developsan in-öll asymptotic theory for the LS estimator of structural break point inthe AR(1) coe¢ cient. The in-öll asymptotic distribution is also asymmetric, trimodal,dependent on the initial condition, and delivers excellent approximationsto the önite sample distribution. Unlike …

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A Martingale Difference-Divergence-Based Test For Specification, Liangjun Su, Xin Zheng May 2017

A Martingale Difference-Divergence-Based Test For Specification, Liangjun Su, Xin Zheng

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we propose a novel consistent model specification test based on the martingale difference divergence (MDD) of the error term given the covariates. The MDD equals zero if and only if error term is conditionally mean independent of the covariates. Our MDD test does not require any nonparametric estimation under the alternative and it is applicable even if we have many covariates in the regression model. We establish the asymptotic distributions of our test statistic under the null and a sequence of Pitman local alternatives converging to the null at the usual parametric rate. Simulations suggest that our …

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Improved Likelihood Inferences For Weibull Regression Model, Yan Shen, Zhenlin Yang May 2017

Improved Likelihood Inferences For Weibull Regression Model, Yan Shen, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

A general procedure is developed for bias-correcting the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the parameters of Weibull regression model with either complete or right-censored data. Following the bias correction, variance corrections and hence improved t-ratios for model parameters are presented. Potentially improved t-ratios for other reliability-related quantities are also discussed. Simulation results show that the proposed method is effective in correcting the bias of the MLEs, and the resulted t-ratios generally improve over the regular t-ratios.

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Monetary Policy And Energy Price Shocks, Bao Tan Huynh May 2017

Monetary Policy And Energy Price Shocks, Bao Tan Huynh

Research Collection School Of Economics

A New Keynesian framework with endogenous energy production is proposed to investigate the role of monetary policy in addressing disturbances in energy markets. The novelty of the model lies in the endogenous production of energy with convex costs, explicit modeling of goods with different degrees of energy-dependency and sectoral price rigidities. Our analyses prescribe the desirable monetary responses to four types of energy price shocks, highlighting the distinct characteristics of each shock and affirming the need for diverse policy considerations. We also found several points of divergence in relation to previous studies on addressing energy supply shocks. In addition, we …

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Robust Jump Regressions, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, George Tauchen May 2017

Robust Jump Regressions, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, George Tauchen

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop robust inference methods for studying linear dependence between the jumps of discretely observed processes at high frequency. Unlike classical linear regressions, jump regressions are determined by a small number of jumps occurring over a fixed time interval and the rest of the components of the processes around the jump times. The latter are the continuous martingale parts of the processes as well as observation noise. By sampling more frequently the role of these components, which are hidden in the observed price, shrinks asymptotically. The robustness of our inference procedure is with respect to outliers, which are of particular …

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Love, Money, And Parental Goods: Does Parental Matchmaking Matter?, Fali Huang, Ginger Zhe Xu, Lixin Colin Xu May 2017

Love, Money, And Parental Goods: Does Parental Matchmaking Matter?, Fali Huang, Ginger Zhe Xu, Lixin Colin Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

While parental matchmaking has been widespread throughout history and across countries, we know little about the relationship between parental matchmaking and marriage outcomes. Does parental involvement in matchmaking help ensure their needs are better taken care of by married children? This paper finds supportive evidence using a survey of Chinese couples. In particular, parental involvement in matchmaking is associated with having a more submissive wife, a greater number of children, a higher likelihood of having any male children, and a stronger belief of the husband in providing old age support to his parents. These benefits, however, are achieved at the …

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The Value Of Trading Relations In Turbulent Times, Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani, Zhaogang Song May 2017

The Value Of Trading Relations In Turbulent Times, Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper investigates how dealers’ trading relations shape their trading behavior in the corporate bond market. Dealers charge lower spreads to dealers with whom they have the strongest ties and more so during periods of market turmoil. Systemically important dealers exploit their connections at the expense of peripheral dealers as well as clients, charging higher markups than to other core dealers. Also, intermediation chains lengthened by 20% following the collapse of a flagship dealer in 2008 and even more for institutions strongly connected to this dealer. Finally, dealers drastically reduced their inventory during the crisis.

Go to article

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