Economics Commons^™

Choices For Financing Fiscal And External Deficits, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

The ongoing debate on the growing trade and current account deficits and fiscal deficit needs to be encouraged as it creates awareness of economic issues among the general public and puts pressure on the policy makers to take corrective action. However, this debate has so far been dominated by a superficial or highly perfunctory analysis perpetuated by two extreme positions. Those who wish to criticize and find fault with the government paint a doom and gloom scenario and argue that deficits are a result of mismanagement and wrong economic policies pursued and pose a serious threat to macroeconomic stability and …

Pakistan's External Sector: An Analytical Survey 1999–2000 To 2005–06, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

Recent media reports, commentators and editorials have raised questions about the growing trade deficit faced by Pakistan in the current fiscal year, as well as, about the rise in the absolute level of External Debt. In raising these issues, a serious concern has been expressed about Pakistan's ability to pay its external obligations and the impact on foreign reserves in the future. Alternatively, it is argued, that these obligations can be paid only by incurring higher debt from abroad and thus increasing debt burden.

What Is Fiscal Deficit?, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

Fiscal deficit, Revenue deficit, Primary deficit, Government expenditure, Tax revenue, External account, Balance of payments, Current account, Capital account, Foreign exchange reserves

Pakistan’S External Sector, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

Recent media reports, commentators and editorials have raised questions about the growing trade deficit faced by Pakistan in the current fiscal year, as well as, about the rise in the absolute level of External Debt. In raising these issues a serious concern has been expressed about Pakistan’s ability to pay its external obligations and the impact on foreign reserves in the future. Alternatively, it is argued, that these obligations can be paid only by incurring higher debt from abroad and thus increasing debt burden.

Choices For Financing Fiscal And External Deficits, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

The on going debate on the growing trade and current account deficits and fiscal deficit needs to be encouraged as it creates awareness of economic issues among the general public and puts pressures on the policy makers to take corrective actions. However, this debate has so far been dominated by a superficial or highly perfunctory analysis perpetuated by two extreme positions. Those who wish to criticize and find fault with the government paint a doom and gloom day scenario and argue that deficits are a result of mismanagement and wrong economic policies pursued and pose a serious threat to macroeconomic …

Japan Pakistan Economic Relations: Challenges And Opportunities From Japan’S New Economy, Seiji Kojima

Business Review

I have various reasons to discuss the economic relations between Japan and Pakistan today. First, one of the most important and urgent tasks that the Pakistani Government faces is of course to achieve a robust and stable economic growth, thereby enabling to eradicate poverty from this country. As the largest bilateral donor and a major trade partner of Pakistan, it would be quite natural for Japan to place importance on the economic aspect of the relations with Pakistan. Second, this is an institute of business administration, and I imagine that the audience will show interest in the economic side of …

Towards A Vision 2030: Direction Of Industrial Development In Pakistan, Japan International Cooperation Agency ., International Development Center Of Japan .

Business Review

Pakistan needs to find out ways to promote expansion of the dynamic market economy. This Study attempted to present ways to promote industries, specifically in order to achieve “well-directed economic development” to be broken down into: upgrading of industrial structure, control of the underground economy and proper development of economic infrastructure. In addition, in relation to “building economic clusters, unique to its locality”, concrete recommendations should be presented for the purpose of “well-directed regional development”. The Study selected seven manufacturing sectors – textile, food processing, automobile, electronic & electrical, chemical, housing related and IT industries –, and looked into their …

Financial Reforms And Common Stochastic Trends In International Stock Prices: A Case Study Of Pakistan, Mohammed Nishat, Ch. Muhammad Irfan

Business Review

This study uses the co-integration and error-correction techniques to examine the linkages between Pakistan and other capital markets of developed economies (US, UK, Japan, Australia and Canada); regional markets in South Asia (India, Sri Lanka), East Asia (Indonesia, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan, Philippines) and EU (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Italy and Czech) countries. The results indicate a long-run relationship between Pakistani stock market and most of the international markets during the sample period (1997 to 2004). However, the longrun linkages were comparatively stronger with developed and EU markets. The direction of linkages in most cases, are from other regional …

Development Of Asian Bond Markets: Current Situation And Future Prospects, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse

Historical and empirical studies carried out during the last several decades have amply demonstrated that an effectively functioning financial system is linked to economic growth, macroeconomic stability and poverty reduction. What are the mechanisms through which financial system plays such an important role? First the financial system is the main conduit through which funds are transferred in exchange of goods, services or promises of future return. Second, it mobilizes savings from those who have surplus disposable funds and allocates these funds among the efficient and productive investors for expansion of the economy. Third, it transforms risk through aggregation from a …

Islamic Finance Industry: Positioned For Growth, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse

The achievements made by Islamic Finance Industry during the last few years have indeed been impressive. The growth rate of 15-20% annually, the evolution of sukuks, fixed income, equity, money market instruments and the attraction of Islamic products among a large variety of issuers and investors globally have been the salient features that have characterized the Islamic Finance Industry (IFI). What I propose to do this afternoon is to spell out the challenges that the industry has to meet during the next several years to integrate itself within the framework of global financial system. First, the host country leadership in …

Banking For The Poor, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

In 1974 a young economic professor of Chittagong University just returned from the U.S after his doctorate in an exoteric topic when the famine struck Bangladesh. He approached the people of a village nearby the University as to how he could help them and discovered that their biggest problem was they were so heavily indebted to the moneylenders that they had almost lost their freedom of individual action. The moneylenders were charging exorbitant rates of interest that were multiplying the outstanding amount exponentially beyond the capacity of the poor villagers. He offered to provide his own personal funds to them …

Why Do We Fear Globalization, Ishrat Hussain Dr.

Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse

The present study by SPDC clearly demonstrates that trade liberalization is good for growth as well as poverty reduction. Trade liberalization is just one component of the phenomenon broadly termed as globalization. Other components are financial flows and integration, migration of labor and technology transfer. In my recent travels across a number of developing countries I came back with an uneasy feeling that our best efforts to liberalize and integrate our economy in the globalizing economy are not yet good enough to keep up with the growing competition. I realize that a deeper process of reforms going beyond top layer …

Why Reform The Government?, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

The recent decision taken by the Government of Pakistan to establish a National Commission for Government Reform (NCGR) has evoked a varied set of reactions and also heightened expectations about the outcome of these reforms in some quarters.

The purpose of this article is to explain the rationale, lay down the scope of work and to apprise the general public as to ways in which they can contribute to the task of the Commission.

Random Walk Tests For Kse-100 Index: Evidence And Implications, Abdul Rashid

Business Review

The variance-ratio tests are used to test the random walk hypothesis for Pakistan’s stock exchange. The evidence indicates that the stock prices generally do not follow random walk over the entire examined period. This piece of evidence is robust during the second sub-period. During the first sub-period, however, the stock prices do not behave non-randomly. The absence of a random walk is implying that profitable trading rules can be devised. The findings also show that the Karachi Stock Exchange falls back to normal after being dramatically affected by a shock.

Socioeconomic Status As A Predictor Of Marital Adjustment In Working Women, Zeenat Ismail, Kausar Ansari

Business Review

The purpose of the present research was to determine the extent to which Socioeconomic Status in Pakistani scenario can predict Marital Adjustment with special reference to working women. After detailed literature review it was hypothesized that Marital Adjustment would be more among working women of high Socioeconomic Status as compared to working women of low and middle Socioeconomic Status. Sample of the present research consisted of 150 married working women divided into three groups of subjects each consisting of fifty women. These groups comprised of low, middle and high socioeconomic classes. Dyadic Adjustment Scale was administered in order to measure …

Wavelet Based Sarima Models For Forecasting Natural Gas Demand, S.M. Aqil Burney, Afzal Saleemi, Syed Akhter Raza

Business Review

Time series analysis has attracted a lot of attention of researchers in recent times due to availability of sophisticated computing facilities. In this paper wavelet transformation and seasonal ARIMA methodology have been used to analyze and forecast time series. First we analyze time series data for gas demand of Sui southern Gas Company (SSGC) of Pakistan and forecast with Box-Jenkins SARIMA models then we look at waveletbased multiresolution analysis (MRA) and SARIMA models predictions using the compressed and de-noised signals. With the right choice of mother wavelets, this method is very successful in analyzing and forecasting time series. In the …

Have We Missed The Rally?, Talib Haider

Business Review

Capital Markets across the world have made many rich and many poor. Though the number of people losing money appears to be somewhat more, this notion simply becomes relative if one looks at it from stock investment perspective, where one loses one day and gains on another.

Why Is A New Index Needed?, Shama Ahmed

Business Review

Stock Market, Indices, Finance

Pakistan’S Investment Scenario And Capital Markets, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

Most media reports, editorials, commentators and talk show experts vehemently assert that growth in Pakistanis consumption led and fuelled by bank credit. If they are right then the latest data available is indeed very intriguing. Gross fixed capital formation during 2005-06 was Rs.1.42 trillion – an increase of 30.7 % over last year. This was over and above an increase of 28.6 % recorded in 2004-05. In constant price terms (after adjusting for inflation) this translated into real growth rates of 10.3 % and 9.3 % respectively. Consequently, Investment – GDP ratio rose to 20 %. This trend is confirmed …

Challenges To Islamic Finance Services Industry, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse

The achievements made by Islamic Finance Industry during the last few years have indeed been impressive. The growth rate of 15-20% annually, the evolution of sukuks, fixed income, equity, money market instruments and the attraction of Islamic products among a large variety of issuers and investors globally have been the salient features that have characterized the Islamic Finance Industry (IFI). The highest spread of the industry has taken place in the GCC countries followed by Malaysia, Iran and Sudan. The annual growth rate in GCC countries is 24 percent while in South East Asia it is 26 percent. In all …

Revisiting The Elitist Economy Of Pakistan, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

Several observers and media persons have asked me to update on the latest assessment of my thesis propounded in the book " Pakistan : The Economy of an elitist state. " They are interested in exploring the question whether the polices and programs pursued during the last six years have made any dent on the elitist model of the economy that I had put forward in February, 1999 or not.

As I was one of the players involved in the economic management of the country it is natural that my perspective would be highly subjective. But it is equally incumbent …

Time To Look To The East, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

One of the most dynamic regions of the world today and likely to remain so in the next several decades is East Asia (including Japan, China, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand). The East Asia summit that was held at Kuala Lumpur recently was a path-breaking event in which 10 Asian countries (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam), along with China, Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand and India participated. This summit could become a precursor for a long drawn process for an emerging East Asian Community.

Why Increase In Capital Requirement Of Banks?, Ishrat Husain Dr

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

Several commentetcrs have critiqued the recent move of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to raise tile minimum capital requirements of the banks by 2009. They believe that this move is unfair as it would lead to the survival of big banks and eliminaIion of small banks and also result in the exit of the foreign banks from the scene.

The Perils Of Higher Skill Shortages For Pakistan’S Economy, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse

It is highly paradoxical that in a developing country such as Pakistan, we are experiencing serious skill shortages and, at the same time, high rates of open and under employment. A lot has already been said about the causes of the mismatch between the skills required by the economy and the skills generated by the educational institutions. In this paper, I am also not going to focus on technical and vocational skills such as carpenters, masons, electricians, plumbers, automobile, air conditioning, refrigeration mechanics, medical technicians, nurses, foremen, etc. but mostly on higher skills such as needed by the I.T. and …

Monetary-Cum-Exchange Rate Regime: What Works Best For Emerging Market Economies?, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse

Conduct of monetary policy in emerging market economies is certainly no less challenging than it is in advance economies; it may be argued that it is, in fact, more challenging because of different nature of economic, socio-political and institutional structure of emerging market economies. However, the experience of advance economies in formulating and implementing monetary policy combined with the broad principles of economics and their own experiences provides a natural starting point for the central banks of emerging economies to actively search for improving their monetary regimes.

Culture, Ethics, And Values In The Banking System, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse

When I addressed you for the first time on March 25, 2000, we were in a despondent and gloomy mood. The economy was stagnant, external debt payment difficulties were pervasive and the financial soundness indicators of the banking system in Pakistan were quite worrisome. Public sector owned and managed banks dominated the system with its peculiar bureaucratic culture, indifferent service standards, laid back and lethargic business practices and narrow product range. The Government of Pakistan was underwriting the losses of these banks out of its scarce budgetary resources. Average lending rates hovered around 15 to 16 percent, credit growth to …

Why Privatization Is Necessary For Economic Growth In Pakistan?, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse

The decade of 1970s in Pakistan witnessed a massive redistribution of national assets from the private owners to the state. The reason underlying the then Government’s thinking for this extremely radical action was that the national wealth was being concentrated in the hands of few families and the rich were getting richer and the poor getting poorer. It was asserted by the proponents of this strategy that the state control over allocation of the resources would promote the best interests of the poor. The intellectual support for this strategy was drawn from the success of the Soviet Union and the …

What Is Happening To Pakistan’S External Sector?, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse

Recent media reports, commentators and editorials have raised questions about the growing trade deficit faced by Pakistan in the current fiscal year, as well as, about the rise in the absolute level of External Debt. In raising these issues a serious concern has been expressed about Pakistan’s ability to pay its external obligations and the impact on foreign reserves in the future. Alternatively, it is argued, that these obligations can be paid only by incurring higher debt from abroad and thus increasing debt burden.

Pakistan’S Budget For 2005-2006: Links With Strategic Framework, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse

Let me first begin by commending the Institute of Bankers for organizing this forum once again for the banking community so that they get a first shot of what the budget implies for them, as well as, for the country as a whole. I would not like to repeat what has been said by the two previous speakers but let me say that we should understand the process because there is some confusion about the way the budget is formulated.

Who Will Be State Bank Governor?, Saniyya Gauhar

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

Dr. Ishrat Husain's fruitful and successful tenure as Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan will, unfortunately, be over. He has definitely been the best State Bank governor we have had in a long time, and arguably the best ever given the enormous problems that he inherited, so it would be a pity to lose him - much more work needs to be done in banking sector reform.