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Articles 181 - 210 of 532
Full-Text Articles in Economics
Estimating Proportion Of Noise Traders And Asset Prices, Mirza Faizan Ahmed
Estimating Proportion Of Noise Traders And Asset Prices, Mirza Faizan Ahmed
Business Review
This paper provides empirical evidence of the presence, proportion and trading behavior of noise traders in the U.S. equity market (S&P500 index). A simple methodology is used to estimate the heterogeneous agent asset pricing model involving noise traders’ risk, through GMM. Departing from previous estimations of heterogeneous agent models, it estimates fundamental price using the consumption-based asset pricing model and noise traders’ misperception as deviation from this price. It concludes that noise traders exist in the S&P500, they exaggerate price expectations as compared to fundamental traders, and traders (or investors) are rational, on average.
Examining The Impact Of Personalization On Online Advertising Engagement: Moderating Role Of Privacy Concerns Of Online Users, Uzma Noor, Tahira Awan, Muhammad Zahid
Examining The Impact Of Personalization On Online Advertising Engagement: Moderating Role Of Privacy Concerns Of Online Users, Uzma Noor, Tahira Awan, Muhammad Zahid
Business Review
This study examines online advertising engagement as a potential consequence of perceived personalization in online behavioral advertising (OBA) context. Internet users’ privacy concerns were analyzed as a moderator on perceived personalization and online advertising engagement relationship. Scenario based activity design was used and 409 usable questionnaires were incorporated in the statistical analysis. The collected data was analyzed using (SPSS) 21 and AMOS 23. Hayes method was used to perform moderation analysis. The moderation analysis showed a significant result but in the opposite direction as hypothesized i.e., high level of privacy concerns made the relationship between perceived personalization and online advertising …
Board Structure And Dividend Smoothing: A Case Of Pakistani Listed Firms, Zahid Ali, Assad Ullah, Arshad Ali
Board Structure And Dividend Smoothing: A Case Of Pakistani Listed Firms, Zahid Ali, Assad Ullah, Arshad Ali
Business Review
The purpose of this study is to empirically examine the effects of ownership and board structure on dividend smoothing for listed non-financial firms for the period 2005-2015 on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) in the light of agency and information asymmetry theory. Two measures, speed of adjustment and relative volatility are used to estimate dividend smoothing. Tobit regression is used for analyzing the effects of board structure on dividend smoothing measured via speed of adjustment while OLS is used for relative volatility. Additionally, the study applies the technique of principal component analysis (PCA) for board index. The results reveal that …
A Squandered Mandate: How Ppp Failed Larkana, Mashal Usman
A Squandered Mandate: How Ppp Failed Larkana, Mashal Usman
MSJ Capstone Projects
In this story, I have attempted to capture the history of the Bhutto family’s association with Larkana; how their influence in the district as well as their hold over it grew over time, how that shaped the districts identity and continues to do so, and lastly, how their party, the PPP, squandered the mandate in Larkana.
Socioeconomic Determinants Of Child Mortality: Evidence From Pakistan Demographic And Health Survey, Rana Ejaz Ali Khan, Khadija Malik Bari, Muhammad Ali Raza
Socioeconomic Determinants Of Child Mortality: Evidence From Pakistan Demographic And Health Survey, Rana Ejaz Ali Khan, Khadija Malik Bari, Muhammad Ali Raza
Business Review
This paper attempts to highlight socioeconomic determinants of child mortality in Pakistan. Binary logistic regression is applied to 7297 observations from the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey 2012-13. The results reveal that probability of child mortality decreases with greater birth-interval, child’s large size at birth, more family members, mother’s education, mother’s ownership of assets and mother’s decision-making at the household level. Policy makers can work to improve mothers’ characteristics such as fertility behavior, education, empowerment and decision-making at the household level, to reduce child mortality.
Testing Asset Pricing Models On The Pakistan Stock Exchange, Kiran Lohano, Muhammad Kashif
Testing Asset Pricing Models On The Pakistan Stock Exchange, Kiran Lohano, Muhammad Kashif
Business Review
This study investigates the performance of CAPM, three-factor and five-factor asset pricing models on the Pakistan Stock Exchange using monthly data of 896 companies from November 2000 to December 2016. The results from the time-series approach show that the three-factor model performs relatively better than the CAPM and the five-factor model, whereas the cross-sectional approach establishes the superiority of the five-factor model. It can thus be concluded that it is important to incorporate factors, such as size, value, profitability and investment when predicting returns on securities in the Pakistan Stock Exchange.
Inflation Targeting And Exchange Rate Pass Through In Pakistan: Markov Switching Approach, Safia Minhaj, Muhammad Nishat
Inflation Targeting And Exchange Rate Pass Through In Pakistan: Markov Switching Approach, Safia Minhaj, Muhammad Nishat
Business Review
This study uses Markov switching model to empirically track the existence of exchange rate pass through and inflation trends in Pakistan from 1982 to 2016. The results reveal a direct relationship between pass through and inflation. Furthermore, interest rate and trade variables have a significant impact on inflation. According to the smoothed probabilities, switches between regimes were sudden and sporadic till 1990, after which long spells were observed during high and low inflation regimes.
Trends On Labour Migration In Pakistani Media (Media Analysis Report), Sabrina Toppa, Zaigham Abbas
Trends On Labour Migration In Pakistani Media (Media Analysis Report), Sabrina Toppa, Zaigham Abbas
CEJ Research and Publications
The purpose of this media review report is to produce a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the overall coverage of labour migration in Urdu and English-language media outlets from 2017 to 2020. Using media content analysis of print newspapers, TV clips, and social media channels, as well as qualitative interviews with journalists producing stories for the aforementioned media outlets, the report looks at how the current Pakistani media landscape has covered the topic of labour migration.
Earnings Response Coefficient As A Determinant Of Dividend Policy: Testing Free Cash Flow Theory On Non-Financial Dividend Paying Firms In The Pakistan Stock Exchange, Hamid Ullah, Anjum Ihsan
Earnings Response Coefficient As A Determinant Of Dividend Policy: Testing Free Cash Flow Theory On Non-Financial Dividend Paying Firms In The Pakistan Stock Exchange, Hamid Ullah, Anjum Ihsan
Business Review
This study tests Jensen’s free cash flow theory which states that managers overinvest retained earnings in negative NPV projects. A data set of 238 firms listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange for the period 1999 to 2016 is used. The results of the panel regression model show a significant positive association of the earnings response coefficient and dividend payout ratio, which supports the free cash flow theory in listed Pakistani firms. Moreover, the imposition of the capital gains tax and the financial crisis has further strengthened the positive relationship between ERC and dividend payout ratio.
Role Of Organizational Culture In Psychological Needs Satisfaction And Work Engagement, Quddsia Sadaf, Mudassar Aziz, Gulnaz Anjum
Role Of Organizational Culture In Psychological Needs Satisfaction And Work Engagement, Quddsia Sadaf, Mudassar Aziz, Gulnaz Anjum
Business Review
This paper explores the role of organizational culture in the satisfaction of basic psychological needs and yielding work engagement among public and private sector managers. Results reveal that organizational culture confers employees with a sense of relatedness which promotes work engagement. Additionally, the study suggests that female managers have a higher need for relatedness, the satisfaction of all basic psychological needs is significantly higher among private sector employees and work satisfaction increases with increasing job level. This study can be used for the development of organizational culture to improve relatedness among employees with respect to gender and the type of …
An Evaluation Of The Forecast Performance Of Dsge And Var Models: The Case Of A Developing Country, Shahzad Ahmad, Adnan Haider
An Evaluation Of The Forecast Performance Of Dsge And Var Models: The Case Of A Developing Country, Shahzad Ahmad, Adnan Haider
Business Review
This paper estimates a DSGE model and three versions of VAR models (VARX, BVARX and BVAR) to analyze forecasting performance of these models in context of Pakistan. VAR models and a medium-scale DSGE model are estimated using quarterly data (1980Q4-2017Q2). Expanding window recursive out-of-sample forecasts for GDP growth, call money rate, CPI inflation and percent change in exchange rate are generated and compared over the period 2009Q1-2017Q2. Forecasting performance is analyzed by the comparison of bias and root mean squared errors (RMSE). Analysis of forecasting performance over 1-8 quarters forecast horizon reveals that BVAR model provides relatively better forecast in …
Providing Protection For Better Outcomes: The Need For Boundary Walls At Schools In Pakistan, Abbas Ali Gillani
Providing Protection For Better Outcomes: The Need For Boundary Walls At Schools In Pakistan, Abbas Ali Gillani
Business Review
This paper explores the importance of a boundary wall at school as a measure of protection and safety, by testing the correlation between a school having a boundary wall and its total enrolment. By using panel data estimation with year and district fixed effects we find that across all levels of schooling, having a boundary wall was correlated with higher total enrolment. Enrolment at primary, middle and high school was 4.0 per cent, 2.3 per cent and 3.0 per cent higher. Gender-wise breakup of the results shows similar correlation for both boys and girls at primary level. However, at middle …
The Reversal Strategy: A Test Case For An Emerging Market, Hilal Anwar Butt, Mohsin Sadaqat
The Reversal Strategy: A Test Case For An Emerging Market, Hilal Anwar Butt, Mohsin Sadaqat
Business Review
The reversal strategy in the Pakistan Stock Market has shown significant profits for the time period January 1993 - September 2017. The available asset pricing models are unable to link these returns with the risk premium. This paper explores an alternative channel of predicting risk premium. It suggests that reversal profits can be considered as compensation for providing liquidity to the market during times of high volatility. Results reveal that reversal is stronger for illiquid and volatile stocks. Furthermore, firms that show reversal, are cash constrained, have lower return on asset (ROA) and equity (ROE), lesser operating profitability (OP), investment …
Emotional Intensity: An Additional Dimension To Understand Emotional Confidence And Purchase Intentions, Wajid Hussain Rizvi
Emotional Intensity: An Additional Dimension To Understand Emotional Confidence And Purchase Intentions, Wajid Hussain Rizvi
Business Review
This paper explores the role of emotional intensity as a determinant of emotional confidence and purchase intentions. It analyzes the difference between low and high emotional confidence and emotional intensity groups in terms of their purchase intentions in the car buying context. Only valence and combined valence-intensity structural models were used to assess respective influences on emotional confidence. The results reveal that the combined impact of valence and intensity has a greater positive and significant influence on emotional confidence. Furthermore, groups with higher emotional confidence and higher emotional intensity show higher purchase intentions. This study contributes to a better understanding …
Capacity To Reform, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Capacity To Reform, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles
COMMITMENT to reform goes hand in hand with the capacity to reform, as together they lead to the implementation of reforms. The capacity of state-centred institutions responsible for implementation of public policies, programmes and projects has eroded over time. Tangible results can be achieved with political commitment, but only when these institutions are revitalised. Simultaneous and sweeping reform of all institutions is neither politically feasible nor practicable given current capacity constraints. A selective and incremental approach is therefore recommended.
Expectations & Delivery Gap, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Expectations & Delivery Gap, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles
Popular disenchantment and mistrust in successive governments can be ascribed to the huge gap between promises and delivery. The emergence of the PTI and Imran Khan has given rise to a new wave of expectations, at least about commitment to reform. His maiden speech emphasising improved governance and rule of law, ensuring access to basic public services to disadvantaged sections of society, alleviating poverty, promoting human development and overcoming the economic crisis has sparked much enthusiasm.
Economic Policymaking, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Economic Policymaking, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles
The incoming government has committed itself to breaking new ground and improving institutions of governance. One such activity that needs immediate attention is revamping the flawed process through which public policies are formulated. Pakistan has suffered heavily due to the wide gap between declared economic and social policies and their implementation. The malaise lies not so much in the content but in the process of their formulation, execution and review, absence of clearly defined responsibilities and accountabilities, and superficial consultation with stakeholders. The result is frequent reversals, lopsided modifications and premature abandonment.
Can Investors Benefit From Momentum Trading? Evidence From An Emerging Market, Sana Tauseef, Mohammad Nishat
Can Investors Benefit From Momentum Trading? Evidence From An Emerging Market, Sana Tauseef, Mohammad Nishat
Business Review
It is claimed that momentum trading strategies generate positive returns. This paper investigates the profitability of momentum investment strategies and their determinants for stocks listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange using data from the period 2001 to 2015. The results reveal that momentum returns for Pakistani stocks are as high as the returns reported for developed markets. Moreover, the returns earned over the sub-period 2001 to 2007 are mostly positive, whereas those earned over the sub-period 2009 to 2015 are mostly negative. Momentum returns in Pakistan, however, are not caused by temporary over or under reaction of investors in the …
Comments On National Water Policy, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Comments On National Water Policy, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse
First of all thank you for providing this opportunity to share my views about the National Water Policy. I would like first to commend the Prime Minister and Chief Ministers for bringing to fruition an exercise which has been going on and pending for 16 years. I remember when I was in the government in 2002 we started this process of formulating a National Water Policy but it never saw the light of day so this government and the chief ministers deserve our commendation for bringing this to a point where we can have a policy on which we can …
Cpec: The Dynamics Of Economy And Finance, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Cpec: The Dynamics Of Economy And Finance, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse
This paper would attempt to set the ball rolling for subsequent discussion by the panelists at this and subsequent sessions by addressing five oft‐asked questions about the CPEC: 1. What is the total size committed by China, what are the different components of CPEC, and how is the phasing of the program? 2. Where do we stand? What has the CPEC achieved so far and what should we expect in the future? 3. What net benefits are likely to accrue to the Pakistan economy and the society at large? 4. How much financing burden the CPEC projects would impose on …
Who's Afraid Of China?, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Who's Afraid Of China?, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has become the subject of an increasing number of conferences, op-ed pieces, and articles. The debate emanates from two strands: at the geopolitical level, OBOR is seen as a manifestation of China's ambitions to become a global power threatening the existing power structure; at the geo-economic level, CPEC presents both opportunities and risks for Pakistan. This article examines the significant benefits of CPEC—including addition of 10,000MW to Pakistan's energy generation capacity, highway construction linking Gwadar with Kashgar, and regional economic integration—while addressing common apprehensions about debt burden and Chinese economic domination, arguing that such concerns …
Avoiding The Crisis, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Avoiding The Crisis, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles
Economists are notorious for invariably making wrong or inaccurate forecasts. I would, therefore, not indulge in predicting what is to happen in 2018. Rather, I would look at the past trends, present situation, global economic environment and the likely domestic political and economic developments in the coming year and make some conditional informed guesses.
Development Beyond Seventy; The Way Forward, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Development Beyond Seventy; The Way Forward, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse
This paper attempts to examine several alternative hypotheses that can explain this slow down, volatile and inequitable growth of the last twenty five years and through a process of elimination advances theoretical and empirical evidence to show that the most powerful explanatory hypothesis lies in the decay of institutions of governance.. The same institutions , on the other hand, were strong and performed quite well during the first four decades despite a myriad of difficulties and external and internal shocks. The main argument of this paper is that the intermediation process through which good economic policies are translated into a …
Development Beyond Seventy: The Way Forward 1, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Development Beyond Seventy: The Way Forward 1, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse
To propose the way forward for Pakistan it is essential to understand the past historical pattern and outcomes and the factors that contributed to those outcomes. The goal that Pakistan has set itself for the future is to become 20th largest economy in the world by 2025. What are the influences that can facilitate or constrain the achievement of the proposed goal? Pakistan’s economic history has gone through periods of booms and busts . But broadly speaking, the seventy years of Pakistan’s economy can be divided into two distinct periods. The first forty years 1950-90 during which Pakistan was one …
Talking Points: Microfinance Innovation & Growth Conference 2017, Ishrat Hussain Dr.
Talking Points: Microfinance Innovation & Growth Conference 2017, Ishrat Hussain Dr.
Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse
Ladies and gentlemen, it gives me great pleasure to be here today as this conference reflects the impressive progress that Pakistan's microfinance sector has made in the last decade and a half. So first, let me congratulate the conference organizers - Pakistan Microfinance Network (PMN) and the Pakistan Microfinance Investment Company (PMIC) for putting together this event and providing us all the opportunity to collectively reflect on the state of the sector and identify pathways for the future.
Analysis Of Pakistan’S Debt Situation: 2000–2017, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Analysis Of Pakistan’S Debt Situation: 2000–2017, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse
First, let us begin by clarifying the definitions and concepts that are used frequently and have created a lot of confusion among the laymen’s mind. Pakistan’s total debt and liabilities (TDL) consist of public debt and private debt. Total stock of outstanding debt and liabilities on June 30, 2017 stood at 79% of GDP. Of this, Gross Public Debt accounted for 85% of the total outstanding or 67.2% of GDP. The remaining 15% is the private debt mostly to borrowers outside the country, for which the government has no fiscal obligation, but the SBP has to provide foreign exchange to …
Pkr: The Upsides And Downsides Of Devaluation, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Pkr: The Upsides And Downsides Of Devaluation, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles
The purpose of this article is to provide a dispassionate analysis of the issue. Instead of taking a firm or doctrinaire position, we raise several questions and argue that the answers to these questions should guide the policymakers in arriving at a decision.
A Pragmatic Foreign Policy, Ishrat Husain Dr.
A Pragmatic Foreign Policy, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles
PAKISTAN has decided to opt for a paradigm shift in its foreign policy. It has also for the first time wisely used its strategic location for deriving long-term economic benefits for the people of this country, particularly in the face of the heightened risk of shrinking foreign capital flows from Western bilateral or multilateral sources. CPEC should be the beginning of a long overdue process of using economic interests rather than politics as the pivot for our relationships with our neighbours. China’s own example should guide us. Despite political disputes, China’s trade with India is worth $100 billion annually. It …
Chinese Perceptions Of Cpec, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Chinese Perceptions Of Cpec, Ishrat Husain Dr.
Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles
Most discussions and analyses with regard to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC) have a Pakistan-driven perspective, and rightly so. After all, we have to safeguard our national interests and ensure maximum benefits for the country. These discussions and writings have evoked a lot of interest in China. This article attempts to present a limited cross section of the views articulated by Chinese scholars, academics, companies engaged in CPEC, retired officials and other friends of Pakistan. My past association with China as the region’s chief economist for the World Bank as well as visits to China practically every year since then has …
Emerging Dynamics Of Management: Book Launch Ceremony Remarks, Ishrat Hussain Dr.
Emerging Dynamics Of Management: Book Launch Ceremony Remarks, Ishrat Hussain Dr.
Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse
Several years ago, there was book called, What they Don't Teach you at Harvard Business School. The tile of Mr. Sirajuddin's book could simply be: What they don't teach you in Business School and Management Schools. Period. There are some lessons that you learn from a very personal and professional experience, which is accumulated overtime. It is reflected, digested, accumulated and then it is shared. The beauty of this book is that you will find these anecdotes to be a subset of the generalized obser vations about of management. I will not go into strateaies, structures, processes of human resource …