Economics Commons^™

Analyzing The Success Of The Usaid-Funded Empleando Futuros And Crime And Violence Prevention Projects In Reducing Emigration From The Northern Triangle To The United States, Sofia M. Munoz

Scripps Senior Theses

This paper explores the role of USAID-funded projects focused on the root causes of migration in the Northern Triangle as a U.S. immigration prevention strategy. Through analyzing the Empleando Futuros activity in Honduras and the Crime and Violence Prevention Project in El Salvador, I found that the projects followed an overly simplistic approach to migration based off of neoclassical economic theories of migration. When compared to alternate migration theories and empirical evidence from the region, I found that the individualistic and employment-based approaches utilized by these projects do not have the desired effect of majorly decreasing someone’s propensity to migrate …

War And Democracy, Gregory Hess, Athanasios Orphanides

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

We present a general equilibrium model of conflict to investigate whether the prevalence of democracy is sufficient to foster the perpetual peace hypothesized by Immanuel Kant and whether the world would necessarily become more peaceful as more countries adopt democratic institutions. Our exploration suggests that neither hypothesis is true. The desire of incumbent leaders with unfavorable economic performance to hold on to power generates an incentive to initiate conflict and salvage their position—with some probability. An equilibrium with positive war frequency is sustained even if all nations were to adopt representative democratic institutions and even in the absence of an …

Preference Areas And Intra-Product Specialization, Sven W. Arndt

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

The theory of preferential trade liberalizations has traditionally focused on trade in final products rather than components and parts. It has also seen such agreements in the main as trade agreements, although its insights have been applied successfully to the creation of Europe's Single Market, the so-called "Europe 1992" project. It has tended as well to focus on agreements involving countries at relatively similar stages of economic development. Inauguration of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), on the other hand, has drawn attention to trade in components, to regional investment liberalization, and to preferential agreements linking developed and developing …

Production Networks In An Economically Integrated Region, Sven W. Arndt

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

This article discusses an approach to "open regionalism" based on regional production networks and component specialization. Component specialization, or intra-product trade, has been shown to be welfare-enhancing. It creates jobs and raises output by improving competitiveness. It is one of the innovative features of the current phase of globalization. It offers groups of small countries opportunities to make regionalism work in ways which the traditional European model does not. It is less discriminatory and less inward-looking than the European model. It stresses regulatory reform and the creation of a single market early in the process of regional economic integration. The …

Gender As An Impediment To Labor Market Success: Why Do Young Women Report Greater Harm?, Heather Antecol, Peter Kuhn

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

Compared to older women, young female job seekers are more than three times as likely to report that their ability to find a good new job is compromised by their gender. This phenomenon cannot be statistically attributed to observed personal or job characteristics, or to any “objective” measure of discrimination. Further, women's reports of gender‐induced advantage, and men's reports of gender‐induced harm, are also more prevalent among the young. A possible interpretation of all these patterns is that young people are more likely to interpret a given departure from gender‐neutral treatment as causally affected by their gender.

The Usa In The World Trading System, Sven W. Arndt

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

The USA has been an important player on the post-war world economic stage, but for much of that period what happened in the world economy was not of much consequence to the majority of the country's citizens. Trade was, and in many ways still is, a small part of overall economic activity. To assess the importance of trade one has to go to sector- and industry-specific levels, where shifts in world demand and supply can affect wages, profits, employment and output. The public at large has a general sense that the US economy is becoming more 'globalized' and that this …

Some Intranational Evidence On Output-Inflation Trade-Offs, Gregory Hess, Kwanho Shin

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

In a seminal paper, Robert E. Lucas, Jr. provided the theoretical relationship between aggregate demand and real output based on relative price confusion at the individual market level. Subsequently, an alternative New Keynesian aggregate supply relationship was derived and it was demonstrated that the two theories can be distinguished on the basis of how both the rate of inflation and the volatility of relative prices affect its slope. By emphasizing the first implication of New Keynesian theory, strong evidence was obtained supporting this model using international data. We also concentrate on the second difference between the two theories. We derive …

Extensions Of Power Transition: Applications To Political Economy, Jacek J. Kugler

CGU Faculty Publications and Research

This is a paper about theory in political economy terms and political economy in theoretical terms. It unifies power transition theory and applies it to the central questions that now confront political economists. Will trade wars emerge as the security challenge declines? What are the economic effects of integration, trade and growth? How will economic patterns influence international power relationships? This paper offers a preliminary bridge whereon practitioners and theorist may meet to assess the challenges that lie at the intersection between politics and economics. The economic collapse and political dissolution of the Soviet Union left policymakers and scholars searching …

Book Review: Current Issues In Economic Development: An Asian Perspective, Sven W. Arndt

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

As suggested by its title, this volume examines an extensive range of issues related to economic development. There are papers on governance and democracy; ethics, values and corruption; regulation and privatization; as well as trade liberalization and the Uruguay Round. Along the way, the role of population and the characteristics of agricultural development are also evaluated. Overall, the discussion ranges far beyond the economics of development to include its political and cultural connections. The papers were prepared for a conference organized by the Asian Development Bank and held in Mania in late 1994.

The Long-Run Costs Of Moderate Inflation, Gregory Hess, Charles S. Morris

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

Long-run price stability is generally considered to be a primary goal of monetary policymakers in many countries. One reason policymakers care about inflation is that it can harm economic performance. Numerous studies of the impact of inflation on economic performance have focused on whether increases in inflation reduce economic growth in the long run (Barro, Fischer 1993, Bruno and Easterly, and Clark). These studies have found that prolonged high inflation does in fact reduce economic growth, but they were not able to detect a significant long-run relationship between real growth and low or moderate inflation. Because anti-inflationary policies typically have …

Cost Scale-Up Factors For Airport Construction, Donald S. Remer, Christopher Wong '96

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

Engineers must often make a quick "ballpark" cost estimate of a new plant, facility, or piece of equipment before the detailed design phase. One easy way to obtain such an estimate is to base the cost on a known cost for a similar plant, facility, or piece of equipment by using the ratio of the capacities or sizes of the known and proposed item raised to an exponent R. This predesign cost-estimating approach is especially useful for doing sensitivity analyses and feasibility studies for which a high degree of accuracy is not required. This cost-capacity or power-factor model was …

Are Tax Rates Too Volatile?, Gregory Hess

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

The way in which a government chooses to raise tax revenue over time has attracted considerable attention both in the tax literature, and the political business cycle literature. The tax literature ahs emphasized planning problems where the government chooses taxes and a path for government debt to minimize the excess burden of taxes over time. Alternatively, the political business cycle models focus on the fiscal policies pursued by incumbent governments to either improve their reelection prospects or to constrain the policies that future governments in power will pursue.

This paper addresses the question of whether tax rates fluctuate “in excess” …

A Test Of The Theory Of Optimal Taxation For The United States, 1869-1989, Gregory Hess

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

A popular theory of optimal tax policies suggests that tax rates should follow a random walk. This paper extends the existing empirical literature in three ways. First, the impact on the marginal utility of consumption when the government chooses a tax plan to smooth the distorting impact of taxes is considered. Second, exogenous changes in the real rate of interest are incorporated into the government's optimal tax plan. Finally, the tax elasticity of output is not constant over time. Allowing for these changes, there is evidence that the government discounts the future, attempts to smooth the distorting impact of taxes …

Nominal Income Targeting With The Monetary Base As Instrument: An Evaluation Of Mccallum's Rule, Gregory Hess, David H. Small, Flint Brayton

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

In this paper, we explore McCallum's monetary base instrument rule in the context of several models. The first section uses two models, previously utilized by McCallum, to demonstrate the general properties of his rule and to update through 1992 the empirical support for the rule. The second section uses models that allow a significant role for interest rates in transmitting the effects of changes in the monetary base to aggregate demand. The analysis in these two sections makes two main points: (1) Shifts. or instabilities, in the structural relationship between the base and nominal GNP in the 1980s and 1990s …

The Cost Of Doing A Cost Estimate, Donald S. Remer, Harry R. Buchanan

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

There are many reasons for cost overruns, but one of the key factors it the lack of resources (time, money, and staffing) spent to do proper up-front cost estimates. Another major reason is that the implements were not involved in the estimating. The purpose of this article is to address the issue of the cost to do a cost estimate [8]. We will report on how others handle this issue and make suggestions on how the Deep Space Network (DSN) should estimate the amount to spend on a cost estimate and its impact on reducing the probability of a cost …

The Profit Motive: The Bane Of Mathematics Education, Neal Koblitz

Humanistic Mathematics Network Journal

No abstract provided.

Determining Maintenance Cost Ratios, Donald S. Remer, Josef S. Sherif, Harry R. Buchanan

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

Maintenance is a necessary (and usually burdensome) function for practically all natural and man-made elements. Simply defined, maintenance is the effort to keep a device or system working. The amount of funding allocated for maintenance by an organization is necessarily a compromise, possibly viewed as too much by management and too little by the operators/maintainers. The objective of our study was to report on the wide range of costs involved in maintaining equipment. We discuss some methods that different industries use to measure and report their maintenance costs; we summarize the results of a literature search on the range of …

Subsidy And Countervailing Duty Issues In The Context Of North American Economic Integration, Sven W. Arndt

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

The paper then considers some general effects of domestic subsidies on a country's trading partners. The penultimate section examines alternative strategies of response to foreign subsidies. It is followed by concluding comments.

Mathematics For Life And Society, Miriam Lipschutz-Yevick

Humanistic Mathematics Network Journal

No abstract provided.

Long-Range Planning Cost Model For Support Of Future Space Missions By The Deep Space Network, J. S. Sherif, Donald S. Remer, H. R. Buchanan

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

A simple model is suggested to do long-range planning cost estimates for Deep Space Network (DSP) support of future space missions. The model estimates total DSN preparation costs and the annual distribution of these costs for long-range budgetary planning. The cost model is based on actual DSN preparation costs from four space missions: Galileo, Voyager (Uranus), Voyager (Neptune), and Magellan. The model was tested against the four projects and gave cost estimates that range from 18 percent above the actual total preparation costs of the projects to 25 percent below. The model was also compared to two other independent projects: …

Design And Development Of A Photodegradable Bottle Cap, Kenneth S. Chon '87, Javier H. Idrovo '89, Donald S. Remer, Kenneth Pawlek '90, Kusha Janati '90

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

The first photodegradable plastic cap for a glass beer bottle was developed and tested. The cap's design is the same as the current plastic, screw-on cap for soda bottles. A photodegradable resin was added to the soda cap plastic to make it photodegradable. Caps with 0%, 10%, and 25% photodegradable additive were made. Tests show that the photodegradable cap meets most of the physical properties required for a beer or a soda cap. A photodegradable cap with 10% degradable additive will cost about three times more than current metal crowns, but only about 10% more than current plastic soda caps. …

Government Policy And The Decline In U.S. Trade Competitiveness, Sven W. Arndt

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

This chapter examines recent developments in the U.S. competitive position from both economywide and sector-specific perspectives. At the former level, competitiveness may be measured by comparing the average of domestic prices or costs with those abroad, after allowing for changes in exchange rates; while at the disaggregated level, the price and cost comparisons are carried out with respect to sectors, industries, and products.

Growth And Debt: Mexico And The United States In The Medium Term, Sven W. Arndt, Donald R. Lessard, Clark W. Reynolds

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

Mexico and the United States are at an historic crossroad. Earthquake, oil prices, and domestic inflation have dramatically worsened Mexico's economic situation in the past year, more than offsetting the beneficial effects of lower international interest rates. Trade, financial, and employment relations between the two countries are threatened at the very time when their economic and social interdependence is growing. While temporary relief has been gained from recent agreements with the IMF, World Bank, and other international institutions, condition on commercial bank acceptance, even if all the terms are met much remains to be done.

Analysis Of Conditional Vs. Unconditional Most Favored Nation Status, Sven W. Arndt

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

As dissatisfaction with the international trading system grows in the United States, the question arises as to how U.S. policy makers might best pursue improvements in the conditions of international trade and related trade policy goals.

Trade And Financial Interdependence In The World Economy, Sven W. Arndt, Lawrence Bouton

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

With regard to the trading order, questions have arisen about the benefits from freer trade at a time when more countries are turning to managed trade and protectionist sentiment is on the rise. Some believe that the international financial system, for its part, no longer facilitates the transactions of goods but dominates them. This article discusses these issues and addresses the policy options available to government leaders.

Trade Problems And Trade Policies, Sven W. Arndt

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

The contemporary protectionist furor in the U.S. Congress is not only unprecedented in the post-World War II era but also anomalous. It is anomalous because it occurs in the context of an economic recovery and one of the most extended recoveries at hat. Although unprecedented and anomalous, it is not difficult to explain for it occurs during one of the most unbalanced economic recoveries on record.

The External Effects Of U.S. Disinflation, Sven W. Arndt

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

This chapter examines the effects of recent U.S. policies on such "external" variables as exchange rates and the balance of trade. It also examines their repercussions for America's principal trading partners. The focus is on adjustment in the short run and on the role of price and wage rigidities in bringing about the observed results. The chapter begins with a brief review of the major developments and then proceeds to an analysis of the relevant interrelations. An appendix provides a more formal treatment of the major analytical issues.

Aquatic Photovoltaic Facility, Donald S. Remer, Hwee Tong Lim '82, Brian C. Kelly '82

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

A feasibility design and cost estimate was completed for a 1 megawatt photovoltaic (PV) facility which would float on an island reservoir at Catalina Island off the coast the coast of Southern California. If built, this project would be one of the largest PV operating facilities to date and also the first floating PV system. The modular facility consists of 250 floating platforms each supporting 430 square feet of flat panel PV cells. This facility would provide 25% of Catalina's yearly peak energy demand and reduce the amount of diesel fuel used.

An Approximation Method Of Calculating The Present Worth Of Nonintegrable Cash Flow Patterns, Brian Almond, Donald S. Remer

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

An approximation method is provided for calculating the present worth of nonintegrable continuous cash flows that have common industrial economic applications. Two limiting cases of particular use in engineering screening analyses are given for each model. Practical examples are presented to illustrate the application of the cash flow models to manpower reductions due to computerized process control and to cash flows for a pollution-abatement facility.

Deterrence And The Arms Race: The Impotence Of Power, Jacek J. Kugler, Abramo Fimo Kenneth Organski, Daniel J. Fox

CGU Faculty Publications and Research

So much has been done in the name of nuclear deterrence, so much destructive power built by ourselves and the Russians that it may seem rather late in the day, not to say absurd, to wonder whether or not mutual deterrence really occurs and ask what evidence can be adduced to prove it. Yet such a question may be essential to an understanding of international nuclear politics. The problems thus posed are difficult, however, and cannot be solved by direct means. What one needs to do is to establish empirically whether the conditions necessary for deterrence to be taking place …