Economics Commons^™

The Impact Of State-Provided Paid Family Leave On Wages: Examining The Role Of Gender, Aimee Samantha Abrams Widdicombe

Scripps Senior Theses

The U.S. is the only OECD country that does not offer any form of federal paid parental leave. Only three states—California, New Jersey and Rhode Island—have state-provided paid leave policies; implemented in 2004, 2009 and 2014, respectively. Through descriptive statistics and difference-in-difference-in-difference regression analyses of the wages of women and men of childbearing age (19-45 years) in those three states, we assess whether the paid leave programs have effected wages, and whether these effects vary depending on gender. Our results show that wages of women of childbearing age saw negligible net effects post-policy in policy states, although statistically insignificant. On …

Crowded: Population Pressures In San Francisco Bay Area National Park Service Properties, Caroline R. Ebinger

Scripps Senior Theses

This paper hopes to analyze the intersection between diversity and numbers of visitors and landscape preservation in the National Park Service. Current scholarship addresses either diversity in the Park System or carrying capacity and human population pressures. However, both are critical issues facing the National Park Service in the 21^st century, and looking at the issues in isolation means missing a key interaction and potentially working to solve one problem that in turn amplifies another. Here, diversity of park-goers and preservation priorities will be addressed together, each as part of the other.

Pinnacles National Park, Golden Gate National Recreation …

Restauración De La Diplomacia Y Sus Implicaciones: Los Próximos Pasos En Las Relaciones Entre Los Estados Unidos Y Cuba, Emily Chambard

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis explores the implications of the recent restoration of diplomatic relations between the United States and Cuba. Through historical analysis and discussion of the ‘Cuban Thaw’ beginning in 2009, it proposes certain courses of immediate and long-term action for both nations, but specifically the United States, to guarantee future collaboration and mutual gain. Its conclusions emphasize the unique nature of current circumstances, which have opened a window of opportunity never before seen in the history of US-Cuban relations. The causes are one, the succession of Fidel Castro by his brother, Raúl, who has already demonstrated more progressive policy action …

Compounding The Sacred And The Profane: How Economic Theory Brings New Insight To The Growth And Decline Of American Protestantism, Bretton Chad

CMC Senior Theses

In this thesis, economic theory and models will be used to analyze trends of religious growth and decline within the United States. These theories and models, such as Rational Choice Theory, will be applied in order to better understand and gain new insight into shifts and changes within the religious landscape of the United States. Recent trends of growth and decline within Protestantism, the most prominent Christian tradition in America, will be the focus of the investigation. As its main focus, this thesis will ultimately demonstrate that the trends of decline in the mainline Protestant tradition opposed to the trends …

Adventures At The Zero Lower Bound: A Bayesian Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Analysis Of Monetary Policy Uncertainty Shocks, Rachel M. Doehr

CMC Senior Theses

Using survey-based measures of future interest rate expectations from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we examine the relationship between monetary policy uncertainty, captured as the dispersion of interest rate forecasts, and fluctuations in real economic activity and core inflation. We use a flexible time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model to clearly isolate the dynamic effects of shocks to monetary policy uncertainty. To further study possible a possible nonlinear relationship between monetary policy uncertainty and the macroeconomic aggregates, we extract the impulse-response functions (IRF’s) estimated at each quarter in the time series, and use a …

Why Are We Still Listening To This Dead British Guy: An Analysis Of Emergency Liquidity Assistance In Germany During The Sovereign Debt Crisis, Nia R. Gillenwater

Scripps Senior Theses

Germany’s position of power within the European Union disguises how impacted the German economy was by the 2008 Financial Crisis and Europe’s subsequent Sovereign Debt Crisis. Two of Germany’s major banks-Commerzbank and Bayerische Landesbank- suffered major losses and required emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to survive. Walter Bagehot wrote the theory underpinning lenders of last resort (LLRs) in 1873 but how has the development of systemically important banks affected the usefulness of Bagehot’s theory? This paper aims to explain why Germany is in need of updated LLR recommendations through an analysis of the ELA Germany at large, Commerzbank and Bayerische Landesbank …

Battle Of The Beds: The Economic Impact Of Airbnb On The Hotel Industry In Chicago And San Francisco, Katherine Goree

Scripps Senior Theses

The sharing economy is the private redistribution of goods via peer-to-peer sharing. Since internet use has saturated the U.S., the sharing economy has become widely internet-based. Airbnb, a website and app that facilitates the short-term rental of space to stay in another person’s home, has become a major component of the sharing economy.

This study includes an empirical analysis of the hotel occupancy rates in two major markets, San Francisco and Chicago, and how they have or have not changed, from the 2008 launch of Airbnb through the end of 2014. The study hypothesizes that Airbnb has had a statistically …

Market Sensitivity Of A High Frequency Trading Firm Stock, Rosalie Frazier

Scripps Senior Theses

The major purpose of this study is to explore the stock movements of a publicly traded high-frequency trading firm, Virtu Financial. Virtu Financial, as of November 2015, is the only publicly traded high frequency trading firm, offering a opportunity to study the market behavior of a new kind of stock. Since Virtu serves as a unique financial intermediary, my hypothesis is that Virtu should be a market-neutral company since it is able to profit equally in economic upswings and downturns. This study uses a regression based on the Fama and French three factor model, focusing on the influence of the …

Economic Assimilation For Immigrants In Chile: An Employment Convergence Analysis, Emily C. Long

Scripps Senior Theses

Blending migration studies and labor economics, this thesis explores the economic implications of immigrant assimilation in Chile by using probit models to test for employment convergence and labor market convergence between immigrant groups and native Chileans. Using census data from 1992 and 2002, we find significant differences in the employment and labor force participation rates for these demographic groups, affected by the immigrants’ gender, decade of arrival, and country of origin. We see evidence of the nascent care industry in Chile, as well as the implications of the Chilean visa system and employment contracts. Additionally, we see employment probabilities fall …

Indigenous Rights Policy And Terrorist Discourse: A Strategy To Stifle Mapuche Self-Determination In Chile, Reyna Mckinnon

Scripps Senior Theses

When President Sebastián Piñera entered office in 2010 the Mapuche indigenous people were receiving two contrasting messages from the Chilean State. On the one hand, the government ratified ILO Convention 169, pledging to protect the indigenous right to prior consultation in programs that affect their communities. On the other hand, the government was involved in the oppression of Mapuche communities in the region of the Araucanía through militarisation and the application of the Anti-Terrorist Law to punish radical Mapuche activists that protest corporate encroachment on their land. While Piñera had the opportunity to legitimize the Mapuche demand for self-determination by …

A Clean Electricity Future: Assessing The Role Of Wide-Area Power System Operations In Supporting Weather-Driven Renewable Energy In The U.S., Paul D. Picciano

Pomona Senior Theses

Over the coming decades, renewable energy sources, namely wind and solar, will need to play a larger role in our nation’s energy mix as we seek to lower greenhouse emissions and respond to renewable energy policies and the EPA’s Clean Power Plan. This thesis assesses the role of wider-area power system operations in the U.S. as a powerful solution in supporting the integration of these weather-driven, variable energy resources that pose substantial challenges to grid reliability. The expansion and integration of organized electricity markets and transmission networks over wider geographic areas can (1) help reduce net-variability in wind and solar …

Ballot-Box Environmentalism Across The Golden State: How Geography Influences California Voters’ Demand For Environmental Public Goods, William Skyler Lewis

Pomona Senior Theses

In California, voters frequently face ballot propositions dealing directly or indirectly with environmental protection. Records of these votes provide powerful evidence of the character of voters’ demand and willingness-to-pay for environmental public goods (e.g., air quality, watershed ecosystem services, parks and recreation), and have been used in past environmental econometrics research to produce aggregated income and price effect estimates. Using neighborhood-level voting records on seven environmental-related ballot propositions in California between 2002 and 2010, this econometric study investigates the nature of voters’ demand for environmental public goods, focusing on the effect of household income on pro-environment voting. Unlike previous studies, …

How Can We Have A Better Public Transportation System? –An Exploratory Agent Based Model, Boyu Liu

Pomona Senior Theses

Public transportation plays an integral part in a city's development, but transportation professionals disagree about whether it is feasible to increase the capacity of public transportation systems at a reasonable cost; and if it is, how. This study develops an agent based model that aims to answer this question and provide a framework to compare the effects of improvements in different aspects of the public transportation service. The results of this study show that it is possible to increase ridership enough to compensate for the increased operational cost, but only in certain circumstances. Interesting phenomenon that might have showed up …

A Comparative Examination Of International Carbon Trading Mechanisms, Allison Moors

CMC Senior Theses

A Comparative Examination of International Carbon Trading Mechanisms

Peer Misbehavior Effects In The Classroom, Alex Hwung

CMC Senior Theses

This paper seeks to evaluate the effects of peer misbehavior in the classroom on student learning outcomes--namely, if there is any truth behind the old saying that “one bad apple ruins the bunch”. Using experimental data, I show that there is a strong initial relationship between the level of misbehavior in a given classroom and performance on a mathematics evaluation; however, the inclusion of lagged peer achievement in the model causes most of that relationship to be absorbed away, suggesting that the bulk of peer effects stem more from the academic performance of other students than from their behavior.

Proximity To Children: A Geospatial Approach To Understanding The Relationship Between Fast Food And Schools, Andrew Atwong

CMC Senior Theses

In a time when Americans are waking up to the health consequences of consuming fast food, researchers have discovered that fast food restaurants seem to be located in greater concentrations near primary or secondary schools. While this phenomenon affects the food environments of some children and carries implications as to their short term and long term health (which has also been well researched), this paper focuses primarily on fast food restaurants that are within walking distance of schools. Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to integrate geospatial, business, demographic, and food quality data, I use linear regressions to examine whether and …

The Drivers Of Success In The Nfl: Differences In Factors Affecting The Probability Of Winning Based On First Half Performance, Zach Alleva

CMC Senior Theses

This paper explores how changing various end game statistics effects a given teams probability of winning a game in the National Football League (NFL). Data from the 2000-2016 NFL seasons is split into two subsets, one for teams winning at halftime, another for losing teams. Using this data an empirical model is estimated to study how the determinants of a team’s success differ between the two sets of data. Overall, the factors which determine a team’s outcome are consistent between the two subsets, varying primarily by magnitude of the effect.

How Cutting The Cost Of Using A Bank Affects Household’S Behavior Of Remittance Transfers: Evidence From A Field Experiment In Rural Malawi, Chuyuan Lu

CMC Senior Theses

Using a randomized experiment in rural Malawi, this paper finds that providing information on mobile bank buses’ services leads to a higher probability of adopting savings accounts in the treatment group. Households in the treated villages are 3.06 percentage points more likely to adopt savings accounts than households in the control group. Second, the information treatment leads to an increase of in the probability of households receiving remittances in the treated villages, as well as an increase in the amount of remittances received. In particular, the effect is strongest for households that lived at least three kilometers away from the …

An Event Study Analysis Of American Bank Holding Company Equity Returns Upon Basel Iii Announcement, Brian R. Delaney

CMC Senior Theses

This study examines the trading activity of a large cross section of American bank holding companies upon various sub-events associated with the introduction of Basel III. An event study methodology was applied to various sub-composite portfolios, as determined by regulatory capitalization and leverage ratios. The results suggest that statically significant abnormal negative returns occurred on the announcement to negotiate due to heightened regulatory uncertainty, especially amongst the least capitalized and highest leveraged banks. However, this effect is complemented by statically significant positive returns upon the release of the initial guidelines. Reactions to subsequent events report to be less significant.

A Re-Examination Of Rating Shopping And Catering Using Post-Crisis Data On Cdos, Robert H. Owlett

CMC Senior Theses

I re-examine “rating shopping” and “rating catering” in the market for AAA rated collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) by replicating the study of Griffin and Tang (2013) using post-crisis data. I find a sharp increase in the amount of CDOs that received a single rating, suggesting that CDO underwriters were more cautious about formally soliciting multiple ratings. However, I also find a decrease in AAA rating disagreements between S&P and Moody’s, implying that issuers shopped their CDOs through informal conversations with agencies. Finally, I find investors correctly accepted tighter credit spreads for dual-rated CDOs because dual-rated CDOs experienced fewer rating downgrades …

Consumer Neuroscience: A Multi-Disciplinary Approach To Marketing Leveraging Advances In Neuroscience, Psychology And Economics, Bridget E. Blum

CMC Senior Theses

For decades, neuroscience has greatly contributed to our foundational understanding of human behavior. More recently, the findings and methods of neuroscience have been applied to study the process of decision-making in order to offer advanced insights into the neural mechanisms that influence economic and consumer choices. In this thesis, I will address how customized marketing strategies can be enriched through the integration of consumer neuroscience, an integrative field anchored in the biological, cognitive and affective mechanisms of consumer behavior. By recognizing and utilizing these multidisciplinary interdependencies, marketers can enhance their advertising and promotional mix to elicit desired neural and affective …

Decrypting Bitcoin Prices And Adoption Rates Using Google Search, Varun Puri

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I analyze Bitcoin price formation and adoption rates at a global and national level. In determining Bitcoin prices, I consider contemporaneous and lagged values of traditional determinants of currencies, such as inflation and industrial production, and digital currency specific factors, primarily public interest. Using monthly time-series data across five years (2011 – 2016), I find that global public interest in Bitcoin, measured by Google searches for the keyword ‘Bitcoin,’ has a positive and significant impact on Bitcoin prices. I extend the analysis to a country level by employing a proxy for adoption rates, represented by the number …

An Analysis Of Education Reform In Sub-Saharan Africa, Katharine Eger

CMC Senior Theses

Sub-Saharan Africa continues to fall behind other developing regions regarding educational attainment, despite recent progress in enrollment. This thesis examines a variety of external conditional factors that could contribute to a country’s relative success, in terms of years spent in school using a prediction model that compares years enrolled in secondary education as a foundation to determine over- and under-performing countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

By exploring various educational policies, historical patterns, and projects executed in Rwanda, South Africa, Ghana, and Botswana, this thesis sheds light on four main challenges that can impact educational attainment: ethnic and racial tensions, an acute …

Escaping The Poverty Trap: Formal Savings And Asset Accumulation In Rural Malawi, Audrey Breitwieser

CMC Senior Theses

Formal savings accounts can be an effective device for households to accumulate assets over time and thus have more funds available to better afford an expensive one-time payment, in the form of either addressing an economic shock or paying for an important life event. I explore this relationship using a field experiment in rural Malawi conducted from 2008-2010, and find that adoption of a formal savings account has no effect on the frequency of economic shocks that a household experiences, nor does it affect how households respond to shocks. However, I find that account adoption does significantly increase the frequency …

Conditional Cash Transfers And Their Effect On Poverty, Inequality, And School Enrollment: The Case Of Mexico And Latin America, Maria Romano

CMC Senior Theses

Over the past two decades, conditional cash transfer (CCT) has become one of the most widespread approaches to social development in Latin America. Spurred in large part by the evident and immediate success of Mexico’s CCT initiative, a multitude of countries began to invest heavily in this strategy hoping to reduce poverty and inequality in the short and long run. This paper examines the relationship between CCT program breadth and poverty, inequality, and secondary school enrollment over a thirteen year span in order to determine whether or not programs with the largest coverage were the most efficient. This question is …

The Effects Of The 1933 Bank Holiday And The Emergency Banking Act Of 1933 On The Systematic Risks Of Various Industries, James E. Ingram

CMC Senior Theses

Utilizing the industry portfolio classifications that Fama and French provide in their data library, I analyze the specific effects that the 1933 Bank Holiday has on various industries. My empirical results go beyond what Silber (2009) determines to be significantly positive abnormal market returns on March 15, 1933, which is the day after the Bank Holiday and the largest ever one-day increase in the stock market. I use the CAPM and the Fama-French 3-factor Model to find significant systematic risk decreases after the Bank Holiday in the Coal and Transportation industries, as well as systematic risk increases in Consumer Goods …

Paying For Performance At The Plate: An Investigation Of Variable Pay Systems In Major League Baseball, Mitchell S. Bremermann

CMC Senior Theses

Previous empirical research on variable pay systems have suggested that possible gains can come from paying for performance, but highlight the difficulty firms face in measuring performance. Using contracts signed in Major League Baseball’s free agent market, I find that over the 2010-2014 period, teams utilized variable pay schemes with players that were more productive or signaled greater risk, either in their contract terms or via overspecialization. However, not all forms of risk signaling were correlated with greater use of performance incentives, including age and proxies for injury history. These findings have significant implications for labor practices more broadly, as …

Bitcoin: Implications For The Developing World, Makari Krause

CMC Senior Theses

Bitcoin has become notorious as the first cryptocurrency to gain widespread media attention, however, despite its many benefits over the existing financial system it remains a volatile fringe currency. This thesis examines the validity of bitcoin as a currency and whether it can play a role in circumventing extractive economic and political institutions in developing countries. The analysis compares bitcoin usage to the level of financial openness, the inflation rate, and the percentage of the population with a bank account in 21 different countries. The correlation is found to be both statistically and economically significant for all of these variables, …

The Economics Of Hosting The Olympic Games: The Miscalculation Of Cost-Benefit Analyses And Why Cities Continue To Bid, Zachary E. Mobilian

CMC Senior Theses

The Olympic Games have become one of the world’s largest and most popular sporting events. With its massive scale, the costs that come with hosting the Games are elevating to unprecedented levels, leaving host cities with massive financial debt. So why do cities continue to bid for the rights to host the Games? In this paper I will attempt to answer this question by providing an overview of the bidding process and the economic impact of the Games and I will argue that the costs of hosting the Olympics are often underestimated while the benefits are greatly overestimated. I will …

Who Will Be The First To Buy Autonomous Vehicles? An Application Of Everett Rogers’ Diffusion Of Innovations Theory, Reilly Jackson Umberger

CMC Senior Theses

Autonomous, otherwise known as self-driving, vehicles represent the future of transportation. Vehicles that drive themselves offer far reaching benefits from increased leisure and productivity for individuals to significant improvements in congestion and infrastructure for governments. The autonomous car will radically change the way we look at transportation, and they are right around the corner. However, the question remains: are we ready? Are we, as a society, ready to hand over the steering the wheel and trust autonomous vehicles with our safety? This paper predicts how the autonomous car will spread through society by analyzing and applying the product qualities and …