Economics Commons^™

A Comparative Study On How Governments And Outside Entities Responded To Natural Disasters: Haiti 2010, Ecuador 2016, And Japan 2011 Earthquakes, Cindy Burga-Romero

CMC Senior Theses

With the world becoming more susceptible to natural disasters on account of climate change, it is important to better see and understand the relationship between a country’s economic and political stability to its ability to provide resources and take care of their people and their institutions. This paper looks at 3 earthquake events in the 21st century that have had large disastrous impacts on the country’s infrastructure, economy, and livelihood of people. The events that occurred in Haiti in 2010, in Ecuador in 2016, and in Japan in 2011 have all had major negative impacts on the vastly different countries. …

Contagion: China Evergrande Group’S Collapse And Its Impact On Belt And Road Stock Indices, William Han Wang

CMC Senior Theses

The Evergrande Group is a giant: a company that has liabilities proportional to 2% of China’s overall GDP. While there is evidence that Evergrande’s collapse harmed China and its surrounding economies, this thesis analyzes Evergrande’s default within the context of China’s central foreign policy: the Belt and Road Initiative. Through four selected event dates, a difference in means and medians test and standard panel regression is conducted to analyze differences in impacts for Belt and Road and non-Belt and Road participating countries’ stock indices. This paper’s hypothesis implies that Belt and Road countries would see comparatively more negative impacts on …

Renewable Portfolio Standards: Effectiveness And Carbon Implications, Alexander S. Albrecht

CMC Senior Theses

A renewable portfolio standard (RPS) policy is a popular regulatory tool implemented within the U.S. and abroad to limit energy sector emissions and incentivize renewable energy. Assessing their effectiveness and efficiency is a key component of achieving further reductions. We assess an energy market under an RPS using fixed-effects panel and 2SLS regression models to lend empirical credence to common theory-based concerns about RPS policy, namely (1) that they leave emissions unregulated once the RPS requirement is met and (2) that they do not incentivize full use of renewable energy resources. Our results show these to be valid concerns that …

A Comparative Analysis Of 14 Central Banks’ Monetary Responses Before And After The Covid-19 Pandemic In Relation To Central Bank Independence, Emelle Stottele

CMC Senior Theses

In theory, during periods of economic downturn, economic policy should follow a countercyclical pattern. In this light, following the recent COVID-19 pandemic, monetary policy is expected to be contractionary. However, prior research shows that the cyclical nature of monetary policy can vary significantly across different countries. Research also suggests that these monetary responses differ based on the level of independence a central bank has for decision-making from government influence. This thesis studies the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the monetary responses across a panel of 14 countries from January 2018 to August 2022, capturing the impacts of the pandemic. …

The Paycheck Protection Program's Effect On Real Estate Prices, Someswar Amujala

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates the relationship between the Paycheck Protec- tion Program (PPP) and real estate price increases. The Paycheck Protection Program was established by the Small Business Association in 2020 to pro- vide forgivable loans to businesses to aid with potential losses from COVID- 19 impacts. I leverage zip code level data across the United States and a fixed effects panel data model to quantitatively measure the PPP’s influence on housing and rental prices. I find a positive and significant relationship between the number of PPP loans disbursed and housing and rental rates. Specifically, a 1% change in the number …

Did Demonetization Have A Bigger Impact On Ppis (Prepaid Payment Instruments) Or Mobile Banking In India?, Ansh Vora

CMC Senior Theses

On November 8, 2016, Narendra Modi, prime minister of India, tele-advertised the entire nation and announced that India's highest value banknotes, the 500 and 1000 rupee “Rs” notes would be demonetized and taken out of circulation, effective midnight. Modi stated that this is an effort to reduce the large economy of black money, transition India into a digital economy, abolish funding of terrorist groups and illicit circulation of counterfeit notes. In this study, I choose to analyze the impact of demonetization on two digital payment methods - Prepaid Payment Instruments, “PPI” and Mobile Banking. The data used in this study …

Examining The Effectiveness Of Nba General Managers At Determining Value In The Nba Draft, And The Impact Of Drafting Team On Player Future Value, Benjamin S. Glass

CMC Senior Theses

This study examines the effectiveness of NBA general managers at accurately drafting in accordance with the future values of players. Using draft position as a metric representing perceived value at the time of the draft, and second contract size to represent value of a player at the time of free agency, I compare the effects of different draft positions on the expected size of a players second contract. By examining divergences in the expected negative linear trend, I can identify positions in the draft which are being over/undervalued. I additionally look at the effect of team on second contract size …

Balancing Trade And Security During The Us-China Trade War: A Gravity Model Approach To South Korea’S Relations With The United States And China, Nathalie Chavez

CMC Senior Theses

In analyzing monthly trade and gross domestic product (GDP) data for South Korea, China, and the United States from January 2016 to December 2019, this paper attempts to quantify the effects of the US-China Trade War on Korea’s security and economic considerations. By using a three-country gravity model with both monthly and HS Code (harmonized system) fixed effects, it finds the following. First, increases in both real GDP for the United States and China, as well as real GDP for Korea, are positively associated with increases in Korean exports at statistically significant levels. Thus, the general predictions of the gravity …

Impact Of Demand For H1b Visas In The Us On The Performance Of Listed Indian Firms, Jayaditya Shekhar Maliye

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the relationship between Indian firm performance and the demand for H1B visas in the US. To test this relationship, a fixed effects model has been used on a panel dataset of 104 Indian firms listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) over the period 2009 to 2021. The results show that an increase in H1B visa demand is negatively and significantly associated with Indian firm performance. These findings suggest that the US’s demand for high skilled labor overseas has consequences for firms in the home country.

Application Of Sentiment Analysis And Machine Learning Techniques To Predict Daily Cryptocurrency Price Returns, Edward Wu

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the effects of social media sentiment relating to Bitcoin on the daily price returns of Bitcoin and other popular cryptocurrencies by utilizing sentiment analysis and machine learning techniques to predict daily price returns. Many investors think that social media sentiment affects cryptocurrency prices. However, the results of this paper find that social media sentiment relating to Bitcoin does not add significant predictive value to forecasting daily price returns for each of the six cryptocurrencies used for analysis and that machine learning models that do not assume linearity between the current day price return and previous daily price …

Sexed Propensities And Gendered Penalties?: An Analysis Of The Economic Outcomes Of Transgender People, Jiwon Chung

CMC Senior Theses

Recent research has indicated the adverse economic outcomes of transgender people. The titular question of this paper refers to the effect on gendered economic outcomes that differences related to sex assigned at birth has for a sample of transgender individuals that is plausibly correlated with being at an early stage of their gender affirmation processes (e.g. social or medical transition). For this group of plausibly early-in-transition transgender individuals, I hypothesize and test a theory that draws the following account: assigned female at birth (AFAB) transgender individuals encounter significant economic penalties as a result of labour market decisions (i.e. industry sorting) …

Finding Answers In Gaps: The Relationship Between Drugs And Mexico's Economy, Mariela Centeno

CMC Senior Theses

This paper sets out to understand the economic conditions that paved the way for the evolution and resilience of a powerful and resilient drug economy in Mexico. To do this, I examine the relationship between a proxy for drug movement from Mexico and large economic variables in the country. I use a dataset that incorporates the drug seizures from 1997 to 2022 to understand whether privatization and the resulting rising economic inequalities in Mexico paved the way for a growing drug economy. This paper builds on current literature regarding drug market estimates and drug economy interactions. Using an OLS regression …

Raising The Bar: The Impact Of Gender Quotas On Legislator Quality, Viola Hernandez-Derbez

CMC Senior Theses

We analyze the effect of a legislative candidate quota on the quality of congresspeople elected. We study a landmark legislation passed in 2014 in Mexico that required all parties to have an equal number of male and female congressional candidates. We observe a 31% increase in number of bills proposed in legislative sessions after the quota and a significantly higher likelihood for greater educational attainment among male and female deputies alike, controlling for an array of factors that could influence our quality measures. Since not all states had the same level of female representation when the quota was introduced, we …

Global Trade Implications Of A Russia And Ukraine-Like Conflict Between China And Taiwan, Jay Morris

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the effects of global trade in general from a Russia-Ukraine-like conflict between China and Taiwan as well as the consequences to the worldwide semiconductor industry. A main component of these effects comes from two assumptions: trade between Taiwan and the rest of the world will cease when the conflict occurs and a group of geopolitically aligned and developed countries called the “Allies” will sanction China across a range of product categories. The main effect of the sanctions is the reduction in imports to China in key strategic goods that help in winning military battles and or promote …

Covid-19, Vaccines, And Decision Theory, Michael A. Lewis

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

In this piece, I delve into some thoughts I've had about decision theory. These have been inspired by the vaccine rollout phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic. I focus on decision making under uncertainty, as it relates to the decision to get vaccinated or not.

Earthquakes And Home Prices: The Napa And Ridgecrest Quakes, Gary Smith, James H. Jung

Pomona Economics

A comparison of residential home sales six months before and after the 2014 South Napa and 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequences shows that prices dropped substantially, and that the effects on individual home prices were directly related to the intensity with which the earthquakes were felt at the location of each home.

Determinants Of Bond Market Development In Emerging And Developing Economies, Mohanad Alsadoun

CGU Theses & Dissertations

A study of local currency bond market development determinants in Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) is considered important when most EMEs and developing countries are shifting from issuing long-term debt securities in foreign currency denominations to their respective local currencies. This dissertation discusses key factors that influence the development of the local currency bond market (LCBM) in emerging developing economies. This study uses three different models to examine the importance of various factors. A total of 26 countries have been examined, and their data revealed several interesting results. The results show that larger economic size, larger banking systems, greater trade openness, …

Physiological Synchrony Predicts Cooperative Behavior With High Stakes, Lena Arai

CGU Theses & Dissertations

Can subconscious bodily responses explain our natural tendency to be trusting and trustworthy towards a stranger? I address this question by conducting, to my knowledge, the first study of physiological synchrony (PS) between pairs of partners playing the trust game face-to-face. Participants were given the choice to send $0, $40, $80, or $120 to their partner; these choices were categorized as showing no, low, medium, and high trust, respectively. Participants were endowed with a more considerable sum of money ($120) than many other trust games (Johnson & Mislin, 2011) to encourage participants to perceive their decisions to have significant consequences, …

Essays On Crime And Law, Morgan Elaine Stockham

CGU Theses & Dissertations

Civil law and public policy often are related to crime in complex and interesting ways. The following dissertation explores the intersections of divorce law and public policy with criminal outcomes. Within my first chapter, we attempt to identify the causal effect of wages on a prosecutor’s effort by studying an exogenous salary increase in New York. We measure the performance by the likelihood that a conviction is upheld when appealed. If the efficiency wage theory explains behavior, then the exogenous wage shock should entice better performance. Alternatively, if individuals who hold office are motivated primarily by an intrinsic motivations rather …

Essays In Behavioral Economics And Neuroeconomics, Rana Sulaiman Alogaily

CGU Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation is composed of three unrelated chapters on Behavioral Economics and Neuroeconomics, all of which are on different topics. Chapter 1: Willingness to Get Vaccinated Against COVID-19 and Reasons for Hesitancy Among U.S Residents. Chapter 2: Testosterone Administration Induces A Red Shift in Democrats. Chapter 3: Neurophysiologic Predictors of Mood in the Elderly.

Three Essays In Law And Economics: Consequences And Formation Of Legal Rules In Other Markets, Minjae Yun

CGU Theses & Dissertations

In this thesis, I study the consequences and formation of legal rules in the “non-traditional” markets to show that non-traditional markets are fundamental to a society’s functioning. The first chapter shows how legal participants strategically behave based on judicial disqualification. The second chapter examines the unintended consequence of a decarceration policy in the criminal-justice system by linking the ex-criminal re-entry issue and homelessness. Lastly, the third chapter concentrates on how the tenure of elected law enforcement agents contributes to the jail-crowding environment, leveraging term limits imposed on local county elected officials.

The first chapter examines the use and impact of …

An Exponential Formula For Random Variables Generated By Multiple Brownian Motions, Maximilian Lawrence Baroi

CGU Theses & Dissertations

The frozen operator has been used to develop Dyson-series like representations for random variables generated by classical Brownian motion, Lévy processes and fractional Brownian with Hurst index greater than 1/2.The relationship between the conditional expectation of a random variable (or fractional conditional expectation in the case of fractional Brownian motion)and that variable's Dyson-series like representation is the exponential formula. These results had not yet been extended to either fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index less than 1/2, or d-dimensional Brownian motion. The former is still out of reach, but we hope our review of stochastic integration for fractional Brownian motion …

Why Do Rich People Not Retire?, Xiya Li

Scripps Senior Theses

Work and leisure are central to the human condition. Scholars from many fields have tried to understand why Americans work so much. Many people believe that when they have enough money, they will retire. However, many people are not willing to retire even if they have enough money to do so. Most people who do not have enough money to retire do not even get any amount of leisure from their jobs. If the view that enough money directly leads to retirement is wrong, then it is time to reconsider using this logic to think of the possibility of retiring. …

Analyzing College On-Campus Residency Agglomeration Benefits And Their Impact On Student Outcomes, Emily Pedace

Scripps Senior Theses

Economies of agglomeration have been shown to increase productivity in part due to technological/ knowledge spillovers. I look at public colleges and universities in California and Texas to examine if students living on-campus can generate enough agglomeration to boost productivity in the students. I use a unique data set with information collected from Common Data Sets, self-reported by the schools. When using an OLS regression with the averages of these variables, higher averages of on-campus residence is correlated to higher average graduation and retention rates for Texas and California. When using a fixed effects panel regression, I find changes in …

County Walkability And Small Business Receipts, Talia Perluss

Scripps Senior Theses

This thesis explores the correlation between county walkability and small business receipts, as well as other possible demographic variables that could explain the success of small businesses, by using a fixed-effect panel regression model. Using county-level data in the years 2012 and 2017, this paper finds that there is a significant correlation between an increase in walkability and an increase in receipts. When running the fixed-effect regressions, this paper found that there is a moderately high positive correlation between walkability and per capita income, suggesting that the effects of an increase in walkability may also capture the effects of an …

The Economic And Social Decline Of Women's Colleges Across The United States, Alexandra Isabelle Rivasplata

Scripps Senior Theses

Women have been attending college at a greater rate than men for several decades. However, women’s colleges have been shutting down or transitioning to coeducation at incredibly high rates. Literature demonstrates the importance of women’s colleges due to their benefits on students’ future career success and psychological wellbeing. However, there is less research concerning the decline of women's colleges, and none regarding the economic and quantitative factors influencing their closures. Using a newly constructed, completely original data set, I perform a logistic regression and analyze variables related to the survival of women’s colleges. I find a high statistical significance of …

Green, Clean, And Mean? China’S Foreign Direct Investment In Sub-Saharan Africa Economy, Makuochukwu Okoma

CGU Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation is an investigative study that utilized the Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model that examines the impact of China’s Foreign Direct Investment on the environment and economy of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In evaluating this impact, 43 SSA countries were analyzed and subdivided into various income levels; three arguments were proposed and tested.First is China’s FDI in SSA, “green.” Does China’s FDI lead to sustainable growth and development for the environment in SSA.? Second, does China’s FDI clean up pollution through the reduction of Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions? Lastly, does it lead to economic growth and development in SSA? The …

Dead Money: Measuring The Influence Of Representatives On Government Spending, Adhitya Venkatraman

CMC Senior Theses

In line with popular criticisms of Congressional pork barrel spending, I find that that individual representatives do wield significant influence in securing government contracts for their districts. Using federal contract data organized at the congressional district level from FY 2001 – FY 2021, I estimate how individual members of the House of Representatives affect funding outcomes. My identification strategy leverages changes in contract funding that occur during exogenous vacancies occurring in the middle of a term. By comparing contract funding outcomes during vacant quarters to non-vacant quarters, I estimate the amount of individual influence exercised by representatives.

During vacant quarters, …

Private Equity – The Rescue Or Destruction Of Financially Distressed Investments, Alex Wilson

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates the effect PE-backing has on portfolio companies in financial distress. Inspired by the more recent questioning of the morality of the Private Equity industry, this paper analyzes the change in financial health after a PE buyout transaction and directly compares that of financially distressed firms during the same time period that were not PE-backed. This study utilizes a dataset made up of financially distressed, public US firms as of 2009, and assesses the change in Z-score ~10 years after PE investment to determine whether PE-backing has an effect on the change in financial health. The negative coefficient …

Integrating Carbon Pricing Approaches, Amay Shah

CMC Senior Theses

Concerns about global climate change and its effects have been steadily growing around the world in recent years. The Paris Agreement has laid out ambitious targets for countries to cut their emissions in order to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees and to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Carbon pricing mechanisms are an inventive instrument that can help achieve these emissions reductions by placing a price on greenhouse gas emissions, creating incentives for organizations to reduce their emissions. These mechanisms can also help enable the transfers from wealthy nations to developing nations that will be essential for ensuring a …