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Articles 151 - 180 of 1240
Full-Text Articles in Economics
Efficiency Gain Argument Of Fiscal Federalism And Economic Growth: Evidence From Five Selected Developing Federal Economies, Hyacinth E. Ichoku, Walter O. Ugwuoke
Efficiency Gain Argument Of Fiscal Federalism And Economic Growth: Evidence From Five Selected Developing Federal Economies, Hyacinth E. Ichoku, Walter O. Ugwuoke
Bullion
This paper investigated efficiency gain argument of fiscal federalism and economic growth with evidence from five selected developing federal economies. The curiosity is to ascertain whether the efficiency gain –the fundamental argument why countries adopt fiscal federalism is justified in these economies. The paper uses stochastic frontier model to achieve this objective. The evidence from the selected developing federal economies revealed diverging results. While in Nigeria, Ethiopia and India there is more expenditure decentralization than revenue decentralization suggesting that efficiency gains from fiscal federalism may remain elusive, in Brazil and South Africa there is more revenue decentralization than expenditure decentralization …
Capital Adequacy Requirement And Bank Behaviour In Nigeria, Baba Nmadu Yaaba, Lailah G. Sanusi
Capital Adequacy Requirement And Bank Behaviour In Nigeria, Baba Nmadu Yaaba, Lailah G. Sanusi
Bullion
The divergent views on the usefulness of capital adequacy ratio (CAR) in controlling the risk appetite of banks necessitates further research on its efficiency and effectiveness. Whereas proponents of CAR believe that it enhances the soundness and stability of the banking system, opponents contend that it can impedes on the intermediating capabilities of banks and possibly ignites credit crunch that could induce fall in the level of output. This study empirical verifies the infuence of CAR on the behavior of banks in Nigeria. The study adopts a system of simultaneous equation, in the tradition of Maraghni (2017) using Generalized Method …
Education, Inclusive Growth And Development In Nigeria: Empirical Examination, Emmanuel Onwioduokit
Education, Inclusive Growth And Development In Nigeria: Empirical Examination, Emmanuel Onwioduokit
Bullion
Fundamental changes in the intellectual and social stance of any society have always been preceded by educational renaissance. This paper investigates the role of education in achieving and sustaining economic development in Nigeria. Abstracting from the theory, the paper examines education in Nigeria, its enhancing, including comparative analysis with selected African countries and its connection with economic development. The ARDL model was adopted to examine both the short run and long run relationships between education and development proxied by HDI and education and economic growth within the context of inclusive growth model. Evidence from the estimated long run ARDL model …
The Impact Of External Debt On Agricultural Production In Nigeria (1980-2016): Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling, Aishatu U. Yerima, Hussaini M. Tahir
The Impact Of External Debt On Agricultural Production In Nigeria (1980-2016): Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling, Aishatu U. Yerima, Hussaini M. Tahir
Bullion
The study analyzed the impact of external debt on Nigeria's agricultural production from 1980 to 2016 using secondary data obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin and the World Development Indicators (WDI). Augmented DickeyFuller unit root test and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to co-integration were utilized, to achieve the objectives of the study. Empirical results revealed that the variables were cointegrated, indicating that they exhibited long run relationship, both in the short and the long run. External debt stock (EDS) had a significant positive impact on agricultural production (AGP), indicating that EDS positively impacted …
Oil Price Shocks And Macroeconomic Dynamics In An Oil-Exporting Emerging Economy: A New Keynesian Dsge Approach, Sunday Oladunni
Oil Price Shocks And Macroeconomic Dynamics In An Oil-Exporting Emerging Economy: A New Keynesian Dsge Approach, Sunday Oladunni
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The global oil dynamics has significant implications for both oil exporting and importing small open economies. However, much of the literature on oil shocks is oriented towards advanced oil-importing economies. Micro-founded studies that explore the effects of oil shocks from the standpoint of oil-endowed emerging economies are rather sparse, compared to the preponderance of studies on developed oil importers and exporters. Thus, resulting to a consequential knowledge gap on oil price transmission mechanism and a limited appreciation of the growing policy dilemmas in these economies. The paper, therefore, sets up a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to …
Estimating A Fiscal Reaction Function For Nigeria, Patrick Ogiji, Kayode J. Ajayi
Estimating A Fiscal Reaction Function For Nigeria, Patrick Ogiji, Kayode J. Ajayi
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The study examines the determinants of fiscal balance and the impact of the selected macroeconomic variables on the primary balance of government. It aims to estimate the fiscal reaction function for Nigeria and determine whether the implementation of fiscal policy is sustainable in the long-run. A Fiscal Reaction model was developed and ARDL technique was used to establish the relationships and interactions among the variables. The study investigated whether the fiscal measures pursued by the government from 2000:Q1 to 2018:Q4 was adequate in addressing the accumulation of huge debt. The analysis of the stylized facts reveals that the government had …
Determination Of Optimal Level Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria, Ishola W. Oyeniran, Solomon A. Alamu
Determination Of Optimal Level Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria, Ishola W. Oyeniran, Solomon A. Alamu
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study adopts the ’buffer stock model’ advanced by Frenkel and Jovanovic (1981) to estimate the optimal level of foreign reserves for Nigeria. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach (ARDL) was used to estimate the optimal foreign reserves function. The results show that the Nigeria’s optimal reserves level responses to adjustment cost of holding reserves and exchange rate volatility and that import and opportunity cost of reserves holding have insignificant impact on Nigeria’s optimal foreign reserves. The short run and long run estimates of the buffer stock model support the theory that foreign reserves holding in Nigeria is more sensitive to …
Portfolio Balance Approach To Asymmetries, Structural Breaks And Financial Crisis: Testing A Model For Nigeria, Portfolio Balance Theory, Oluwasegun B. Adekoya
Portfolio Balance Approach To Asymmetries, Structural Breaks And Financial Crisis: Testing A Model For Nigeria, Portfolio Balance Theory, Oluwasegun B. Adekoya
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study tests the Portfolio Balance Theory (PBT) for Nigeria for the period starting from September 1997 to September 2018. It extends the hypothesized linear inverse relationship between exchange rate and stock price to include asymmetries and structural breaks. It further examines the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on the PBT to determine its stability after the crisis. The full sample results show that the PBT holds for Nigeria and asymmetries and structural breaks matter in the nexus between stock price and exchange rate. However, the impact of stock price on exchange rate diminished in the long-run with …
Spillover Effect Of United States Monetary Policy On Nigeria’S Financial And Macro Fundamentals, Patterson C. Ekeocha
Spillover Effect Of United States Monetary Policy On Nigeria’S Financial And Macro Fundamentals, Patterson C. Ekeocha
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper examines spillover effects of U.S monetary policy on macroeconomic fundamentals in Nigeria from January 1985 to December 2018. The study period is partitioned to account for conventional monetary policy (CMP) period, January 1985 to August 2007 and unconventional monetary policy (UMP) period, September 2007 to December 2018. Guided by relevant pre-tests, we find BEKK-VARMA-CCCMGARCH as the most appropriate model. The study finds significant spillover effects of U.S CMP and UMP on interest rate, exchange rate and inflation rate in Nigeria. We, however, observe that while CMP may be a significant accelerator of shocks persistence on interest rates and …
Governance, Institutional Quality, Growth And Inequality In Africa. A Study Of Central Bank Of Nigeria, Ann Ogbo, Arachie Augustine Ebuka, Ezema Ikechukwu Humphrey
Governance, Institutional Quality, Growth And Inequality In Africa. A Study Of Central Bank Of Nigeria, Ann Ogbo, Arachie Augustine Ebuka, Ezema Ikechukwu Humphrey
Bullion
This paper examined the role of institutional quality on economic growth and reduction of inequality in Nigeria. Survey research design was adopted and data were collected through primary and secondary sources. Population of the study was 600 businesses across Nigeria. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used for data analysis. Findings revealed that the bottlenecks facing businesses in accessing loans have significant effects on business creation in Nigeria. The study concluded that lack of policies and interventions are not the problems for small businesses to obtaining funds from government, but effectiveness and efficiency of these interventions and policies.
Pension Fund, Financial Development And Output Growth In Nigeria, Iwegbu Onyebuchi
Pension Fund, Financial Development And Output Growth In Nigeria, Iwegbu Onyebuchi
Bullion
This study examines the indirect effect of pension fund on economic growth in Nigeria through the financial system. Using Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model, the study found out that pension fund contribution is effective in stimulating growth through investment in portfolios that yield short term returns; this implies that pension fund contribution cannot on its own without a credible financial system impact on economic growth. The policy implication of this study is for Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) to invest in portfolios with short-term returns; thus, a large chunk of funds invested in federal government securities should be unbundled to other …
Portfolio Capital Inflows And Banking Crisis In Emerging Market And Developing Economies (Mdes): Bank-Level Evidence From Nigeria, Tijjani Mohammed Jume
Portfolio Capital Inflows And Banking Crisis In Emerging Market And Developing Economies (Mdes): Bank-Level Evidence From Nigeria, Tijjani Mohammed Jume
Bullion
The objective of the paper is to assess the effects of foreign portfolio capital surge on the banking sector in Nigeria from 2005 - 2018. Using a simple trend analysing a static general equilibrium framework, the paper reveals that portfolio capital inflows, in the wake of monetary policy independence in Nigeria, led to portfolio capital surge which resulted to credit boom and speculative transactions in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) leading to assets price bubble. When the bubble burst during the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2007, and thereafter in 2014, portfolio capital inflows reversed and banking stocks prices declined …
Bank Loan Loss Provisioning During Election Years In Nigeria, Peterson Kitakogelu Ozili
Bank Loan Loss Provisioning During Election Years In Nigeria, Peterson Kitakogelu Ozili
Bullion
The paper investigates the behavior of loan loss provisions during election years in Nigeria. Election events create uncertainties in the business environment. Election and post-election events may amplify credit risks for banks, requiring banks to keep higher loan loss provisions. Using country-level data, it was revealed that the election year did not have a significant effect on the level of loan loss provisions in the Nigerian banking sector. However, the banking sector had high provisions when it is undercapitalized during election years.
Traffic Congestion In F.C.T: Demand And Supply Approach, Ibrahim Abdul, Salihu Habibu Mohammed Gani, Ibrahim G. Umaru
Traffic Congestion In F.C.T: Demand And Supply Approach, Ibrahim Abdul, Salihu Habibu Mohammed Gani, Ibrahim G. Umaru
Bullion
This study examined traffic congestion in Abuja metropolis, F.C.T.- Nigeria using demand and supply approach. The study adopted survey research design. Primary data was collected using questionnaires. Descriptive statistics was used to analysed the data with the aid of tables and graphs. It was discovered that as a road reaches its capacity, each additional vehicle imposes more total delay on others than they bear, resulting in excessive traffic volumes. Congestion is mainly due to the intensive use of automobiles, whose ownership has spread massively in the F.C.T. in recent decades. The study revealed that traffic congestion causes serious consequences in …
Investigating The Impact Of Widening Price Limits On Volatility: The Experience Of The Nigerian Stock Exchange, Mohmmed A. Yadudu
Investigating The Impact Of Widening Price Limits On Volatility: The Experience Of The Nigerian Stock Exchange, Mohmmed A. Yadudu
Bullion
This paper empirically evaluates the impact of return volatility from widening price limits from 5% to 10% on the Nigerian Stock Exchange(NSE) on September 18, 2012 using a Stochastic Volatility model in an event study framework. Using daily trading data from September 2010 to September 2014, the study finds that widening of price limits in the NSE has not increased volatility as feared by some regulators. Stocks with higher free floats and institutional ownership display lower volatility when price limits are widened. This suggests that smaller stock exchanges can improve market efficiency by widening price limits without increasing volatility. The …
Measuring The Risk In Risk Measures: The Case Of The Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market, K. Katata
Measuring The Risk In Risk Measures: The Case Of The Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market, K. Katata
Economic and Financial Review
As part of its mandate, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) carried out a series of foreign exchange policy decisions from 2014 to 2016. This paper, therefore, evaluated model risk of two key risk measures, expected shortfall (ES) and value-at-risk (VaR), due to the CBN's policy decisions using daily data for the naira exchange rates covering 2010 to 2014, as well as, 2011 to 2015 for the respective policy resolutions. The risk measures were implemented using 6 different models, as the most common techniques used by regulators and practitioners. The implementation of Basel III recommends the switchover from VaR to …
Is Inflation Always And Everywhere A Monetary Phenomenon? Evidence From Nigeria, J. K. Achua, H. Nagado, I. I. Okafor
Is Inflation Always And Everywhere A Monetary Phenomenon? Evidence From Nigeria, J. K. Achua, H. Nagado, I. I. Okafor
Economic and Financial Review
Is inflation always a monetary phenomenon in Nigeria? Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) results of Nigerian data, spanning 2005q1-2017q4, indicate that changes in money supply have no long-run significant impact on domestic price level behaviour. The results, however, reveal that non-monetary factors: import, global oil price, exchange rate, inflation expectation, fuel pump price and monetary policy rate significantly upsurge inflationary pressure. Conversely, household income (the shadow of unemployment) significantly dampens inflationary pressure while fiscal deficits moderate the pressure. The findings establish the dominance of structural and fiscal dynamics in the inflation equation of the economy.
Globalisation And Government Size In Nigeria: A Revisit Of The Compensation Hypothesis, P. I. Nwosa, T. O. Akinbobola
Globalisation And Government Size In Nigeria: A Revisit Of The Compensation Hypothesis, P. I. Nwosa, T. O. Akinbobola
Economic and Financial Review
The link between globalisation and government expenditure has remained contentious in the literature particularly from a disaggregated perspective. Hence, this study examines the compensation hypothesis by analysing the relationship between globalisation and government size in Nigeria for the period 1981 to 2018. Globalisation is proxied by trade and financial openness while government size is measured by final consumption expenditure by the general government (FCE), share of government expenditure on economic services (ECO), share of government expenditure on social and community services (SCS), and share of government expenditure on transfers (TRF). The study employed the error correction modelling technique and the …
Analysis Of The Impact Of Central Bank Of Nigeria's Agricultural Intervention Funds On The Economy, E. T. Adamgbe, M. C. Belonwu, E. R. Ochu, I. I. Okafor
Analysis Of The Impact Of Central Bank Of Nigeria's Agricultural Intervention Funds On The Economy, E. T. Adamgbe, M. C. Belonwu, E. R. Ochu, I. I. Okafor
Economic and Financial Review
This paper set out to investigate the impact of Central Bank of Nigeria's interventions on the agricultural sector within an economy-wide framework of general equilibrium modelling. The paper adopted a dynamic (recursive), two-sector general equilibrium model of the Nigerian economy with some modifications on the standard model developed by the Centre for Econometric and Applied Research (CEAR) and incorporated the contributions of the CBN's agricultural based interventions as increases in the stock of agricultural capital to have a more robust size of interventions into the agricultural sector. The SAM used for the CGE model analysis was derived from the updated …
Determinants Of Money Supply In Nigeria, Aderopo R. Adediyan
Determinants Of Money Supply In Nigeria, Aderopo R. Adediyan
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Studies on money supply determinants focus on the Classicists or Monetarists, Keynesians and post-Keynesians variables like income and money multiplier. This research extends the literature on money supply determinants to include the influence of financial liberalization on money supply with a reference to Nigeria between 1980 and 2019, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. Data used for the study were collected from the 2019 CBN Annual Statistical Bulletin. The study found that financial liberalization is an important factor in determining money supply in Nigeria, in addition to currency ratio, required reserve ratio and high-powered money. As a result, the …
An Assessment Of The Effectiveness Of Central Bank Sterilization On Capital Inflows In Nigeria, Tijjani M. Jume
An Assessment Of The Effectiveness Of Central Bank Sterilization On Capital Inflows In Nigeria, Tijjani M. Jume
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper assesses the monetary policy response of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to increases in capital inflows into Nigeria using monthly time series data from January 2009 to December 2017. It presents an econometric assessment of the degree to which the CBN sterilizes net foreign assets (NFA) in response to the capital flows, using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach. The long run sterilization coefficient obtained suggests that the CBN successfully offset 95per cent of capital inflows in the period of analysis. Against the background of rising financial instability in Nigeria, the study illustrates how sterilization has …
Decomposing Employment Growth In Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries: The Roles Of Structural Changes And Demographic Transition, Abidemi C. Adegboye, Clement A.U. Ighodaro
Decomposing Employment Growth In Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries: The Roles Of Structural Changes And Demographic Transition, Abidemi C. Adegboye, Clement A.U. Ighodaro
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The challenge of employment growth in SSA countries goes beyond economic growth prospects to include structural and demographic dimensions. This study examines the relative contributions of structural changes and demographic factors to employment growth for a set of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries using available annual data from 1970 to 2014. A decomposition approach is employed in the study using the Jobs Generation and Growth (JoGGs) method which generates results that show distributive components of employment, productivity and output changes over time in a system whereby the roles of economic structure and demographic changes could be observed. The study shows that …
Pass-Through Of Crude-Oil Price Shocks To Consumer Prices In Nigeria: Pre And Post 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Eric I. Otoakhia
Pass-Through Of Crude-Oil Price Shocks To Consumer Prices In Nigeria: Pre And Post 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Eric I. Otoakhia
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study investigates the responses of consumer price index (CPI) to crude oil price shocks in the pre- and post-2008 global financial crisis. The study used the Structural Vector Autoregressive model to analyze monthly data from 2000M01 to 2019M12. The impulse response analysis showed that for pre and post-crisis periods, oil price shocks have a positive impact on CPI. This impact was an insignificant direct momentary increase in pre-crisis CPI before dissipating. Conversely, the impact on post crisis CPI response tends to be stable and long-lasting starting from the third month. The confidence bands for the post crisis CPI are …
Asymmetric Impact Of Oil Price On Inflation In Nigeria, Sani Bawa, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Danladi S. Tukur, Sani I. Barda, Yusuf J. Adams
Asymmetric Impact Of Oil Price On Inflation In Nigeria, Sani Bawa, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Danladi S. Tukur, Sani I. Barda, Yusuf J. Adams
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation in Nigeria. A Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach was applied on quarterly data spanning 1999Q1 to 2018Q4. Results showed that oil price increases led to increase in headline, core and food measures of inflation in Nigeria. However, a decline in oil price resulted in a decline in the marginal cost of production and culminated in moderation of domestic inflation. Furthermore, negative oil price shocks led to higher inflation in Nigeria when exchange rate is dropped from the models, indicating that exchange rate absorbed the impact of oil price …
Markov Regime-Switching Autoregressive Model Of Stock Market Returns In Nigeria, Oluwasegun A. Adejumo, Seno Albert, Omorogbe J. Asemota
Markov Regime-Switching Autoregressive Model Of Stock Market Returns In Nigeria, Oluwasegun A. Adejumo, Seno Albert, Omorogbe J. Asemota
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study is designed to model and forecast Nigeria’s stock market using the All Share Index (ASI) as a proxy. By employing the Markov regime-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model with data from April 2005 to September 2019, the study analyzes the stock market volatility in three distinct regimes (accumulation or distribution – regime 1; big-move – regime 2; and excess or panic phases – regime 3) of the bull and bear periods. Six MS-AR candidate models are estimated and based on the minimum AIC value, MS(3)-AR(2) is returned as the optimal model among the six candidate models. The MS(3)-AR(2) analysis provides …
Impact Of Interest Rate Differential And Exchange Rate Movement On The Dynamics Of Nigeria’S International Private Capital Flows, Tari M. Karimo
Impact Of Interest Rate Differential And Exchange Rate Movement On The Dynamics Of Nigeria’S International Private Capital Flows, Tari M. Karimo
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The study examines the impact of interest rate differential and exchange rate movement on the dynamics of Nigeria’s international private capital flows from 2010Q1 to 2019Q4. It uses the interest rate parity theory and the Markov Switching Time Varying Transition Probability Modelling approach. Findings show that interest rate differential does not explain the dynamics of aggregate capital and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows, but significantly explains Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) flows. Also, Movement in real exchange rate is significant in explaining outflows and inflows in FPI, and inflows in FDI, but neutral to aggregate capital flows. The study concludes that …
Currency Substitution And Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, Isaiah O. Ajibola, Sylvanus U. Udoette, Rabia A. Muhammad, John O. Anigwe
Currency Substitution And Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, Isaiah O. Ajibola, Sylvanus U. Udoette, Rabia A. Muhammad, John O. Anigwe
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study investigates the relationship between exchange rate volatility and currency substitution in Nigeria, using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. After accounting for the presence of structural breaks, evidence from the findings shows that domestic interest rate and expected changes in exchange rate are important determinants of currency substitution. In addition, there is empirical support for a positive relationship between exchange rate volatility and currency substitution both in the short- and long-run. This implies that higher real exchange rate volatility is associated with an increased level of currency substitution. In view of these findings, the paper calls for sustained efforts …
Special Remarks By Okwu Joseph Nnanna, Okwu Joseph Nnanna
Special Remarks By Okwu Joseph Nnanna, Okwu Joseph Nnanna
Economic and Financial Review
This special remarks presented by Dr. Okwu J. Nnanna, the Deputy Governor, Economic Policy Directorate of the Central Bank of Nigeria, at the seminar on “Addressing Nigeria’s Housing Deficit”, for CBN Executive Staff at Transcorp Hotels, Calabar, Cross River State, October 07 - 09, 2019
Addressing Housing Deficit In Nigeria: Issues, Challenges And Prospects, Emmanuel Abolo Moore
Addressing Housing Deficit In Nigeria: Issues, Challenges And Prospects, Emmanuel Abolo Moore
Economic and Financial Review
The article examines the dimension of housing deficit in Nigeria, assess government intervention in tackling the problem of house shortages and proffer solutions that can help reduce the deficit considerably. Basic conceptual issues relevant to housing deficit in Nigeria is first discussed. These issues include: housing, housing deficit, urbanisation, and housing policy. This is followed by an examination of the current level of housing deficit in Nigeria which put existing housing stock at 23 per 1000 inhabitant; housing deficit as at December 2018 at 20 million units (15.0 per cent increase); N21 trillion required to finance the deficit. A look …
Welcome Address By Adebiyi Michael Adebayo, Michael A. Adebiyi
Welcome Address By Adebiyi Michael Adebayo, Michael A. Adebiyi
Economic and Financial Review
This welcome address presented by Dr. Michael Adebiyi, the Director, Research Department, Central Bank of Nigeria at the seminar on “Addressing Nigeria’s Housing Deficit”, for CBN Executive Staff at Transcorp Hotels, Calabar, Cross River State, October 07 - 09, 2019