Economics Commons^™

When Random Group Effects Are Cross-Correlated: An Application To Elderly Migration Flow Models, Karen S. Conway, Andrew J. Houtenville

Center for Policy Research

Incorporating random group effects has proven important to making correct statistical inferences about factors that only vary across groups. We note that it is possible to have more than one random effect in models using cross-sectional data and that these random effects could be correlated, unlike in the typical panel data situation. Extending the standard multiple random effects model in this way is greatly simplified by using the two-step estimator we develop. Our application to an elderly migration flow model provides an intuitive example of cross-correlated random group effects and demonstrates the ease of our estimator, as well as highlighting …

Creating A Comprehensive Policy Toward China, Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

Murray Weidenbaum discusses the importance of establishing a relationship with China.

A New Approach To Regulatory Reform, Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

Even though there is a legitimate need for government regulation, it is still a blunt and imperfect tool, often imposing costs that greatly outweigh the benefits. This study presents the need for regulatory reform and suggests a few ways to do so.

Elderly Migration And State Fiscal Policy: Evidence From The 1990 Census Migration Flows+, Karen S. Conway, Andrew J. Houtenville

Center for Policy Research

The elderly’s unique economic situation makes some government expenditures more attractive and some forms of taxation less burdensome than others. This research investigates whether elderly migration is affected by state fiscal policies and discusses the possible consequences, both of which likely differ between younger and older elderly. Using state-to-state migration flows, we identify which states are gaining and losing younger versus older elderly people. We then estimate the migration flows as a function of the states’ amenities, cost of living, composition of government spending and alternative specifications of the tax system. We find that elderly migration is influenced by state …

Horatio Alger Meets The Mobility Tables, Douglas Holt-Eakin, Harvey S. Rosen, Robert Weathers

Center for Policy Research

The question of how entrepreneurship relates to income mobility is cogent given the current public debate about the sources of income inequality and mobility in United States society. We examine how experience with entrepreneurship has affected an individual’s place in the earnings distribution. Our basic tack is to follow individuals’ positions in the income distribution over time, and to see how their mobility (or lack thereof) was affected by involvement with entrepreneurship. Our main finding is that for low-income individuals there is some merit to the notion that the self-employed moved ahead in the earnings distribution relative to those who …

Income Taxes And Entrepreneurs' Use Of Labor, Robert Carroll, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Mark Rider, Harvey Rosen

Center for Policy Research

This paper investigates the effect of entrepreneurs’ personal income tax situations on their use of labor. We analyze the income tax returns of a large number of sole proprietors before and after the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and determine how the substantial reductions in marginal tax rates associated with that law affected their decisions to hire labor and the size of their wage bills. We find that individual income taxes exert a statistically and quantitatively significant influence on the probability that an entrepreneur hires workers. Raising the entrepreneur’s “tax price” (one minus the marginal tax rate) by 10 percent …

Where Does The Money Come From? The Financing Of Small Entrepreneurial Enterprises, Zsuzsanna Fluck, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Harvey Rosen

Center for Policy Research

Using data from the Wisconsin Entrepreneurial Climate Study, we study the sources of firms’ finance during the very early stages of their lives. Our focus is the evolution of the mix of financial capital from “insiders” and “outsiders” as firms age. We find that at the beginning of firms’ life cycles, the proportion of funds from internal sources increases with age, while the proportion from banks, venture capitalists, and private investors declines. There is also evidence that these patterns eventually reverse themselves, with the proportion of insider finance ultimately declining and the proportion of outsider finance increasing with age. We …

Financial Capital, Human Capital, And The Transition To Self-Employment: Evidence From Intergenerational Links, Thomas Dunn, Douglas Holtz-Eakin

Center for Policy Research

The environment for business creation is central to economic policy, as entrepreneurs are believed to be forces of innovation, employment and economic dynamism. We use data from the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLS) to investigate the relative importance of family financial and human capital in the transition into self-employment. Specifically, we estimate the impacts of own wealth and human capital and parental wealth and self-employment experience on the probability that an individual makes the transition from a wage and salary job to self-employment. We find that young men’s own financial assets exert a statistically significant, but quantitatively modest effect on the …

Apocalypse Now? Fundamental Tax Reform And Residential Housing Values, Donald Bruce, Douglas Holtz-Eakin

Center for Policy Research

Using a simulation model crafted to integrate the short-run and long-term impacts of tax reform on the housing market, we find modest impacts from fundamental reform of the Federal income tax. These results suggest that concerns over the impact of tax reform on housing values and household net worth are overstated. To the extent that reform is otherwise desirable, fears of drastic effects on the housing market should not stand as an impediment to reform. Donald

Entrepreneurs, Income Taxes, And Investment, Robert Carroll, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Mark Rider, Harvey Rosen

Center for Policy Research

This paper investigates the effect of entrepreneurs’ personal income tax situations on their capital investment decisions. We examine the income tax returns of a sample of sole proprietors before and after the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and determine how the substantial reductions in marginal tax rates for the relatively affluent associated with that law affected their decisions to invest in physical capital. We find that individual income taxes exert a statistically and quantitatively significant influence on investment decisions. In our sample, a 5 percentage point increase in marginal tax rates would reduce the proportion of entrepreneurs who make new …

The U.S. Trade Deficit: A Misleading Economic Indicator, Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

The U.S. trade deficit is the most misleading indicator of economic performance in our statistical tool kit. More often than not, bad news for the economy is good news for the trade deficit, and vice versa. In 1992, the economy was in recession and our trade deficit came down. One year later, the opposite was true. When we look beyond the short-run gyrations of the trade balance and the business cycle, more fundamental, longer-run problems do involve the trade deficit. Indeed, it is a symptom of a more basic economic imbalance.

Discrimination In Qualitative Actions By Real Estate Brokers, Jan Ondrich, Alex Stricker

Center for Policy Research

Discrimination occurs when people in a particular class are systematically treated less favorably than other equally qualified people. This study focuses on racial and ethnic discrimination in qualitative actions by real estate brokers, such as showing a customer a housing unit that was advertised in the newspaper. The data come from the Housing Discrimination Study, which conducted over 2,000 fair housing audits of real estate brokers in 25 metropolitan areas in 1989. Each audit consists of a visit to a real estate agency by a white person and either a black or Hispanic person with similar socio-economic characteristics. Using Chamberlain’s …

Recasting The Role Of Government To Promote Economic Prosperity, Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

No government in the world has an agency with the mission of depressing the economy or accelerating the rate of inflation. Yet, many government actions - especially taxation, government spending, and regulation - have those undesirable effects. The paper focuses on government regulation of business, where the costs are especially insidious, and what can be done to reform this regulation. Government decision-makers often forget the fundamental fact that individuals and private organizations have tremendous capability to deal with the shortcomings of a modern economy on their own. Relying more heavily on private initiative moves us closer to a free society …

The Professional Decline Of Physicians In The Era Of Managed Care, Aimee E. Marlow

New England Journal of Public Policy

Physicians have long enjoyed prestige, power, and autonomy, but the rise of managed care organizations has drastically changed their status. Many doctors are in thrall to the financial well-being of the corporations that employ them, their knowledge and expertise controlled and manipulated in the interest of profit maximization. This article investigates the professional decline of physicians, citing the use of gag clauses, incentives to withhold care, and the breakdown of their authority. In an effort to regain some measure of control, physicians have taken their concerns to the public, supporting state and federal legislation that attempts to curb questionable managed …

Is Boston Becoming A Branch-Plant Town?, Lawrence Franko

New England Journal of Public Policy

A decade ago, Boston appeared to be emerging as a headquarters city for a large number of world-class enterprises. Notwithstanding the recovery from the early-1990s recession, and a thriving entrepreneurial economy of business acorns, Boston today seems on its way to becoming largely a branch-plant town. None of the 1980s Massachusetts Miracle saplings or the more recent acorns have grown into mighty corporate oaks headquartered here. This article discusses the risks of having our current prosperity increasingly based on branch plants acquired or established by firms centered elsewhere. Its concern is based on the proposition that having big-business corporate headquarters …

The Case For America's Role In The Global Marketplace, Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

This briefing book explains the need for "Fast Track" in considering new trade agreements.

Armut : Der Mensch Lebt Nicht Vom Brot Allein : Wege Zur Soziokulturellen Existenzsicherung, Isidor Wallimann, Susanne Schmid

Books

While the usual discussion about the poverty of the minimum financial security speaks, the authors ask what it could mean for to be living in a secure socio-cultural minimum. The fact is that poverty can be both "caused" by various forms of exclusion, as well as the socio-cultural exclusion promotes or "causes".

Economic Navigation In A Period Of Great Uncertainty, Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

1997 was a very good year economically, but 1998 is expected to bring a lower growth rate and a slowdown across a number of industries. But rather than a period of doom-and-gloom, 1998 will in fact be best defined as a time of economic uncertainty. In light of this, this paper attempts to provide an economic outlook for the year ahead by answering three key questions: first, how will the East Asian financial deterioration affect us? Second, will politicians try to spend the projected federal surplus before it materializes? Lastly, will the Federal Reserve continue to stay on the policy …

China: A New Force In The Global Marketplace, Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

Even with problems such as energy shortages, environmental degradation, infrastructure, corruption, and crime, the Chinese economy is a force to be reckoned with. If current trends continue, China could end up being number 2, after the United States, in terms of economic output.

Corruption And Governance In The South Pacific, Peter Larmour

Pacific Studies

Talk about corruption has increased in the South Pacific, though it is hard to tell if there is more corruption or just more reporting of it. Defining corruption as “the use of public office for private gain,” this article considers some recent reports of corruption in relation to other issues in South Pacific politics: tradition, ethnicity, aid, land tenure, sovereignty, and governance.

What Should We Do About Global Warming? Weighing The Pros And Cons, Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

The most controversial environmental issue facing the country today is how to respond to the pressure to fight global warming by substantially reducing emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the leading greenhouse gas. The United States has reached a point where it is personally and professionally dangerous, if not foolhardy, to criticize in any way any proposal to "do more for the environment." Nevertheless, in advance of the massive UN Framework Convention on Climate Change meeting in Kyoto, Japan in December 1997, this paper suggests that we should examine the seriousness of the problem and the feasibility of the suggested solution.

The Outlook For Onondaga County's Finances: Baseline Scenario, William Duncombe, Bernard Jump Jr.

Center for Policy Research

This is the third of four reports to the Onondaga Lake Management Conference about the economic and fiscal implications for Onondaga County of court-mandated expenditures for sewer-related remediation of Onondaga Lake.

How The Fruits Of Growth Were Distributed Among Working-Age Families In The United States And Germany In The 1980s, Richard V. Burkhauser, Amy D. Crews, Mary C. Daly

Center for Policy Research

We use cross-sectional and longitudinal data from Germany (Socio-Economic Panel) and the United States (Panel Study on Income Dynamics) to show how the income distribution changed over the 1980s business cycle in these two countries. Consistent with other researchers we find income inequality in the United States increased over the peak years of the 1980s business cycle and that the middle of the income distribution shrank. However, we also find that the great bulk of the disappearing middle shifted to the right— became richer— over the period. Hence, it was disproportionate gains from growth rather than the “immiseration” of the …

Expensive Children In Poor Families: Out-Of-Pocket Expenditures For The Care Of Disabled And Chronically Ill Children And Welfare Reform, Anna Lukemeyer, Marcia K. Meyers, Timothy M. Smeeding

Center for Policy Research

This study explores one aspect of the costs experienced by low-income families with one or more special needs children: direct, out-of-pocket expenses for items related to the child’s disability, such as special foods, transportation to medical clinics, or medical costs not covered by insurance. We find that almost half (46 percent) of a sample of California AFDC families with special needs children experienced some special expenses in the preceding month. About 20 percent of these low-income families experienced total costs exceeding $100. Families with severely disabled children were more likely to experience costs and tended to experience higher costs. While …

Placing A Lid On Marginal Tax Rates: A New Way To Simplify The Income Tax Structure, John Yinger

Center for Policy Research

Thanks to the phasing out of exemptions and excess itemized deductions and to the alternative minimum tax, the federal income tax rate schedule is difficult to draw, to understand, and to connect with any tax principle. Moreover, some taxpayers now face unreasonably high marginal tax rates. This paper proposes a new approach that simplifies the income tax system at its point of intersection with taxpayers; sets absolute upper and lower bounds on true marginal tax rates; and allows for the phasing out of any or all exemptions, deductions, or other tax preferences according to clear principles. This approach can achieve …

The Economic And Fiscal Impact Of Lake Remediation On Onondaga County, William Duncombe, Shannon Felt, James R. Follain, Bernard Jump Jr.

Center for Policy Research

This is the fourth and final report to the Onondaga Lake Management Conference about the economic and fiscal implications for Onondaga County of court-mandated expenditures for sewer-related remediation of Onondaga Lake. Exactly how much remediation will cost and what, precisely, will be the technical specifications of the plan that is finally approved by the court are both still to be decided. Yet, there is little doubt that an undertaking of the dollar magnitude contemplated for lake remediation has the potential to affect the fiscal condition of the county and the future health of the local economy.

The Cost Of Caring: Childhood Disability And Poor Families, Marcia K. Meyers, Anna Lukemeyer, Timothy M. Smeeding

Center for Policy Research

Children in poor families are at heightened risk for disabilities and chronic health problems, and care for these children can impose substantial costs on families and public programs. Although the prevalence and costs of disabilities among poor children have important policy implications, they have been largely overlooked in research on poverty and welfare and on the costs of childhood disabilities. This paper analyzes the prevalence of childhood disabilities and chronic illness among welfare recipient families in California and the probability families caring for these children experience higher out-of-pocket costs and material hardship then do other similar families.

Greener And More Equitable: A Vision For Dams And Other Western Water Issues, Bruce C. Driver

Dams: Water and Power in the New West (Summer Conference, June 2-4)

10 pages.

Contains 1 page of references.

Agenda: Dams: Water And Power In The New West, University Of Colorado Boulder. Natural Resources Law Center

Dams: Water and Power in the New West (Summer Conference, June 2-4)

Conference organizers and/or speakers included University of Colorado School of Law professors David H. Getches, Douglas S. Kenney, Kathryn M. Mutz, Elizabeth Ann (Betsy) Rieke, Charles F. Wilkinson and Lawrence J. MacDonnell.

The keynote address by Charles F. Wilkinson is titled Coming to Grips with Growth in the West: Traditional Communities, Free Rivers and the New Megalopoli, and it will be held on Monday, June 2, at 12:30 p.m. in the Lindsley Memorial Courtroom of the law school. Wilkinson is a noted law professor, writer and authority on Western issues.

The conference will begin by providing historical context for the …

Patterns Of Demographic And Economic Change In The Western United States, Pamela Case

Dams: Water and Power in the New West (Summer Conference, June 2-4)

17 pages.

Contains footnotes.