Economics Commons^™

The Role Of Geopolitical Risk In Conflict Analysis: Critical Insights, Daniel Rajmil, Lucia Morales

Other resources

Conflict analysis is a key step to be considered by conflict and peace academics, practitioners and policymakers willing to assess the complexities associated with conflict scenarios. With this aim, this essay explores how Geopolitical Risk, particularly the Geopolitical Risk Index, could be used as a supportive tool for multidisciplinary studies in geoeconomics and geopolitics. The case of the war in Ukraine was taken as an example that guided the research framework. The core research findings show that conflict studies could accommodate geopolitical risk as a conflict analysis tool. However, caution is needed regarding the limitations and complexities associated with econometric …

Computational Calculation Of Sovereign Default Probabilities: Pakistan's Case, Salman Zaffar

CBER Conference

This paper uses Black-Scholes-Merton model to quantitatively assess sovereign debt sustainability of Pakistan. Both the International Monetary Fund and Asian Development Bank have separately proposed applying Black Scholes-Merton model to calculate the sovereign default risk. Historically, the Black-Scholes Merton Model has been used to analyze corporate default risk. Both the sovereign and corporate default risk calculation are based on contingent claims approach which calculates risk by reading the sovereign and corporate balance sheets, respectively. Thus, in light of the proposition by these two financial bodies this paper calculates the default probability of Pakistan in 2001-2022. As the efficacy, it is …

Mathematical Modeling Of The Impact Of Lobbying On Climate Policy, Andrew Jacoby, Claire Hannah, James Hutchinson, Jasmine Narehood, Aditi Ghosh, Padmanabhan Seshaiyer

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Casar Public Lecture: Mapping The Journeys Of Enslaved People From Zanzibar To The Gulf, The Prince Alwaleed Center For American Studies And Research Casar

Performances, Events, and Presentations

Part of the CASAR October lecture series and in partnership with AUC’s history department, this event featured guest scholar John Thabiti Willis, an associate professor of history at Clarendon College in Northfield Minnesota. For the last ten years Thabiti has dedicated himself to the study of African contributions to the history and heritage of pearling in the Gulf. In this event, AUC had the honor of listening to how Thabiti uses geographical information systems (GIS) to organize primary evidence gathered from manumission statements to analyze enslaved peoples journeys from Zanzibar to British political agents in Bahrain, Muscat, and Sharjah between …

Evaluating The Effectiveness And Efficiency Of U.S. Foreign Aid, Rebecca Baley

Selected Honors Theses

The U.S. is the top spender in the world when it comes to foreign aid, sending billions of dollars around the world each year. There are many different goals and objectives that the U.S. government hopes to accomplish with their spending. This paper is structured as an extended literature review analyzing previous literature on the topic of U.S. foreign aid spending and the results of these funds around the world to test the effectiveness and efficiency. The process of how the foreign aid budget is set will also be discussed as well as the history of why the U.S. started …

From "Our Poor" To "Personal Responsibility": Changing Welfare Rhetoric In Political Party Platforms Of The Carolinas And The Nation, 1950-2005, Felicity N. Ropp

Senior Theses

In this thesis, I track political rhetoric surrounding poverty and welfare from 1950-2005. I first provide thorough context on the history of welfare policy in the United States and the way these issues were framed by politicians leading up to the period my data covers. My analysis centers on 108 political party platforms from the national Republican and Democratic parties and from state parties in North and South Carolina, ranging from 1950 to 2005 (31 of which I located in archives and manually digitized for the first time ever). I explain the significance of party platforms and review the literature …

The Constraints Within Capitalism: An Evaluation Of Ann E. Cudd's "Enlightened Capitalism" In 'Capitalism, For And Against', Phoebe E. Shown

The Cardinal Edge

There is extreme partisanship in the United States regarding whether or not capitalism should continue to be implemented. This partisanship is apparent in Capitalism, For and Against: A Feminist Debate, by Ann E. Cudd and Nancy Holmstrom. The published debate between Cudd and Holmstrom ultimately discusses whether systemic changes can be placed upon capitalism for an ideal "enlightened capitalism", presented by Cudd, or if the United States should adopt a new economic system altogether, suggested by Holmstrom. I address Ann E. Cudd's argument for an "enlightened capitalism" by summarizing her main ideas, and proceed to refute it on the grounds …

The Role Of U.S. Government Regulatioms, Bert Chapman

Libraries Faculty and Staff Presentations

Provides detailed coverage of information resources on U.S. Government information resources for federal regulations. Features historical background on these regulations, details on the Federal Register and Code of Federal Regulations, includes information on individuals can participate in the federal regulatory process by commenting on proposed agency regulations via https://regulations.gov/, describes the role of presidential executive orders, refers to recent and upcoming U.S. Supreme Court cases involving federal regulations, and describes current congressional legislation seeking to give Congress greater involvement in the federal regulatory process.

Understanding Factors Influencing Electric Vehicle Adoption: Evidence From Panel Data Analysis, Ryker Brian

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This paper investigates the factors influencing the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) using panel data from California. The analysis employs a panel data model with within effects to examine the relationship between EV adoption rates and various socio-economic factors. The continued analysis gives out-of-sample forecasted results for the 4 counties with the highest share of electric vehicles registered in 2021. Additionally, the paper explores the influence of supply-side issues and complementary infrastructure on EV adoption. An introduction to Hidden Markov Methods is then given as the next step in the research.

Democratic Facades, Authoritarian Penchants: Post-Communist Monetary Restructuring In The Baltic States, Jokubas Salyga

Political Science Faculty Publications

This paper argues that the paths taken by Estonia and Latvia in their departure from the rouble zone are illustrative of authoritarian neoliberal governance. By challenging the widely assumed simultaneity of ‘democratic’ and ‘market’ revolutions, it critiques institutionalist literature on Baltic exchange-rate regimes and sheds light on the various methods employed to curtail democratic political discourse and participation. The paper delves into the origins of the Baltic neoliberal historical blocs and identifies the social forces that influenced the development of monetary reform initiatives. It then explores the construction of exchange-rate systems through the lens of power struggles within the state …

Monitoring The Philippine Economy State Of The Economy Report, Mitzie Irene P. Conchada, Lawrence B. Dacuycuy, Jesus Felipe, Desher Edgar Empeño, Brendan Emmanuel A. Miranda

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

The Philippine economy recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic during 2022. It posted a very high annual growth rate, 7.6%, although this must be understood in the context of a low base. AKI’s State of the Economy Report focuses on three issues in the context of the new Administration’s 8-Point Socioeconomic Agenda and the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028: growth, inflation, and the fiscal deficit and national debt. Overall, we have a positive view of the economy over the medium and long-term. However, we argue that:

-The focus of economic policy has to shift decisively toward changing the structure of the economy …

Philippine Structural Transformation - With Or Without Maharlika, Jesus Felipe, Mariel Monica R. Sauler, Gerardo L. Largoza, Lawrence B. Dacuycuy, Christopher James R. Cabuay, Jason P. Alinsunurin, Arlene B. Inocencio, Albert E. Lamberte, Natasha Amber Y. Cabiltes

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

It appears the Maharlika Investment Fund (MIF) is a fait accompli. As we write, our finance officials are in New York and Toronto, pitching the MIF to international bankers and representatives of Middle East sovereign wealth funds. This means once President Marcos, Jr. affixes his signature, a newly-created Maharlika Investment Corporation (MIC) will pool, before the year is over, PhP 75 billion in seed capital from the LandBank and Development Bank of the Philippines. With a further PhP 50 billion plus two full years of dividends from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), its nine directors, all presidential appointees, will …

Climate & Conflict: View Into A Warming World, Faelynn Carroll

Master's Theses

Unlike weather patterns, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a large-scale, cyclical climate system that is now predictable for up to a year and a half in advance. ENSO cycles occur every two to seven years for approximately two years at a time, affecting large swaths of the globe with plausibly random variation in the exact location and strength of local effects. However, its systemic nature allows for aggregate effects to be accounted for by its outcomes. This research uses novel 0.5 x 0.5 degree ENSO teleconnection analysis for precipitation and temperature to uncover environmental mechanisms that underly the …

Political Economy Of The Middle East: Historiography And The Making Of An Episteme, Jordan Rothschild

Swarthmore Undergraduate History Journal

The Great Divergence accelerated a process of Western European states dominating the majority of the world’s geography and people economically and geopolitically. Given the stakes of this shift and its ramifications for all of the history that followed, and the significant way that the divide continues to shape our world, this phenomenon is subject to considerable debate within the historiography. This paper uses the Great Divergence as a departure point to analyze the different schools of political economic history, from the flawed sociologies of the early 20th century theorists to the World Systems Theorists and beyond. A key aspect of …

Working Paper No. 83, The New Focus On Mexico, Maria Zavala

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry seeks to establish that China’s falling into unfavorable relations with Washington has contributed to a new focus on Mexico. China’s aggressively competing with America for technological supremacy has indeed elicited a U.S. response. Over recent years and months, the U.S. has implemented a host of measures intended to mitigate China’s competition. Along with disruptions to the supply chain and growing political concerns, company leaders have found it increasingly difficult to continue manufacturing in China. Relatedly, investment flows are streaming towards Mexico in what is now termed as “nearshoring.” This tendency comes with a set of workable challenges. With …

Working Paper No. 79, On The Emergence Of And Failures Of Cybernetics In The Soviet Union, Leah Herrera

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry seeks to establish that despite potentially offering significant efficiency gains leading to an era of intensive economic growth, cybernetics in the USSR fell short in being implemented because of a) lack of coordination between competing ministries; b) inadequate policies; and c) insufficient funding. Though the structure of government in the USSR appeared to be centralized and hierarchical, with economic and government plans and policies traveling from the top down, in practice, ministries acted more like heterarchies, leading to ministerial competition over the large cybernetic projects meant to reform the administrative command economy—from the mid-1950s through to the late …

Liquid Border, Yingfan Jia

Masters Theses

A River is a mighty and constantly-evolving force, leaving behind an intricately designed and constantly changing system. Not just a river, the Rio Grande stretches all the way from Colorado before intersecting with the US-Mexico Border in southern Texas - a point where the powerful forces of nature now merge with a clearly-defined political boundary. The outcome of this is a unique ecological niche, which may often go unnoticed despite its distinctiveness.

Texas is famous for its farms and ranches, and the Rio Grande Valley of South Texas was once an agricultural hub. However, urbanization and the depletion of water …

National Debt And The Misleading Family Metaphor: A Message To The Economic Managers And Journalists, Jesus Felipe

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

A recent article in the prestigious British newspaper, The Guardian (“Bad economics at the BBC enabled Tory austerity and its aftermath — and it knows as much,” James Meadway, January 31, 2023), claimed that bad economics by the British Broadcasting Co. (BBC), the reputable British television company, enabled Tory austerity and its aftermath. A BBC internal review noted that too many journalists don’t get “basic economics,” with a negative effect on U.K. politics. The review refers to taxation, public spending, government borrowing, and debt output. Poor information is particularly serious when it comes to reporting on the central political issue …

Social Capital And Conflict In The Post-Suharto Regime In Indonesia, Andar Ristabet Hesda, Rus'an Nasrudin

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study explores the relationship between social capital and conflict in the post Suharto regime in Indonesia. We employed a combination of cross-section datasets from the Social and Cultural Module of the 2009 National Socio- Economic Survey (SUSENAS) and the media-based conflict data from National Violence Monitoring System (NVMS) of 2010–2014 in Indonesia. Using Binomial Negative Regression, our empirical analysis shows that the past social capital stocks negatively correlate with future conflict intensity. This pattern applies to most conflict types. This result indicates that the social capital stock in 2009 is more likely to be the starting point determining the …

Realizing Innovation And Sustainability: A Case Study Of Macau Sar’S Smart City Development Capabilities, Yujia He, Felix Ter Chian Tan, Carmen Leong, Jingbo Huang, Don Rodney Junio

Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce Faculty Publications

The emergence of digital technologies has transformed organizational innovation with important implications for a city, its economy and policymaking. Despite this, research on how capabilities underpin innovation through smart city initiatives is still lacking. To address this gap, we conduct an empirical investigation of smart city initiatives in Macau, a former Portuguese colony and now special administrative region (SAR) of China. The case study adopts a qualitative approach, using data collected through fieldwork observations and in-depth interviews with stakeholders, and analysis of secondary documents. The study develops a stage-based assessment of innovation capabilities related to the use of technologies in …

Essays On Political Economy And Behavior, Seth Emblem

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation consists of three essays which focus on the intersection of political economy and behavioral economics. I am interested in understanding how people behave in politically adjacent areas so that we can find the policy interventions that can best address the issues that arise from these areas. To do so, I utilize incentivized survey instruments and laboratory experiments to study how people behave in these settings. In Chapter 1, I examine the question of how people respond to standard political surveys and whether these surveys reflect people’s genuine beliefs regarding factual political questions. Responses to standard political surveys suggest …

Can Sports Gambling Become The Fount Of Revenue Consistency?, Richard A. Mcgowan

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Critics of legalization of gambling maintain that gambling revenue is at best stagnate or will eventually fall as a source of revenue. The stagnation of Lottery proceeds and casino revenue as sources of revenue seemed validate this criticism. But a new source of gambling revenue has recently been championed, namely sports gambling. So, the question this paper will attempt to answer is: Can sports gambling produce consistent and growing revenue that are needed to sustain public policy initiatives?

The legalization of sports gambling in NJ occurred on June 11th, 2018 and the first bet was placed on June 14th. New …

Political Economy Of General Normative Force In The Paris Agreement, Jonah B. Jellesed

Master's Theses

The Paris Agreement revolutionizes international cooperation in addressing the urgent threat of climate change. However, its status as an emerging system of global climate governance remains largely unexplored. Drawing on HLA Hart's legal theory, we apply a straightforward test to determine its significance, revealing the Paris Agreement as evidence of a new international legal order. This has far-reaching implications, particularly in the realm of political economy. Unlike previous analyses that merely consider whether a state is a signatory to the agreement or not, our innovative approach delves deeper into countries' commitment. Our analysis shows high compliance levels among populations in …

The Labor And Educational Effects Of Daca: Evidence From California, Oscar A. Alonso Guerra

Master's Theses

The Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, implemented in 2012, has been a subject of intense debate. While much research has examined the early effects of DACA, this study contributes to the literature by analyzing more recent data on the labor and educational outcomes of DACA recipients in California. Using a difference-in-differences approach, I aim to uncover significant changes in the labor market and educational outcomes of DACA recipients over time. I find those eligible for DACA experienced noteworthy effects compared to those who were ineligible. Specifically, they exhibit a significant 3.1 percentage point increase in the likelihood of …

Three Essays In The Economics Of Child Development And Health Inequities, Travis Whitacre

Economics Theses and Dissertations

In chapter 1, I assess the long-term education and labor market effects of missed ADHD diagnoses. Doing so is challenging for two reasons. First, a person's true ADHD status is unobserved; only their diagnosed status is known. Second, even if diagnostic errors are observed, they are likely akin to non-classical misclassification errors and therefore endogenous. To overcome these empirical challenges, I use and extend on a partial observability model with genetic data from Add Health. Through the lens of the partial observability model. I recover an estimate of true ADHD status, and the probability of underdiagnosis. Then, I estimate their …

Chinese Political Rhetoric And Ideology: Tension And Pretension, Israel Paredes

Honors Theses

This changing nature of the Chinese government’s ideology leads one to believe that its core beliefs are not dogmatic, despite the foundation for their ideology being rooted in specific societal and economic theories. Starting with Mao Zedong to modern day, the Chinese government officials will continue to support the original tenets (and, no doubt, future presidents’ additions to the tenets). However, the interpretation of their ideology over time is fluid and is used to support policies and actions during a political cycle. Chinese political leaders are unlikely to disagree with a past leaders, and will rather use their own interpretation …

Breaking The Promise: The Burden Of Unfunded Liabilities On Future Generations, Thomas Savidge

Helm's School of Government Conference - 2021-2024

This paper discusses the trillions of dollars in government debt accumulated by state governments as well as the costs of debt on future generations. It examines unfunded pension liabilities, unfunded other post-employment benefit (OPEB) liabilities, as well as state bonded obligations and the crowding out effect of public debt onto state budgets. The paper also discusses opportunities for reform that can help alleviate the debt burden on future generations. Data are collected from state annual comprehensive financial reports (ACFRs) as well as public pension and OPEB actuarial valuations.

The Economic Ferocity Of Policy, Giana Depaul

Helm's School of Government Conference - 2021-2024

Each day, as the Dow Jones rises and falls, Congress similarly passes and fails legislation. These two seemingly continuous cycles intersect to the point that the two structures appear affixed. For centuries, this has posed an age-old question: is it policy that influences the economic system or is it the economic system itself that molds policy decision-making? Renowned economist Adam Smith is famous for his works detailing the autonomous nature of the economic system. Smith views policy as only a small roadblock in the master strategy of the economic flow of life. The Great Depression and the 2008 Recession, however, …

Trade, Globalism, And The American System, Johnny B. Davis

Helm's School of Government Conference - 2021-2024

No abstract provided.

A Path To Achieve European Energy Security, Nicholas Wolf

Student Theses 2015-Present

The apparatus of Europe’s energy security has collapsed. The Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine, hydrocarbon market turmoil, and the ever-growing threat of climate change has thrust the continent into crisis. As the risks of severe recession, acute energy shortages, and climatic disasters have begun to materialize, the member states of the European Union (EU) have been left scrambling to secure novel energy supplies. In the short-term, these developments pose severe risks to the EU and its member states. Yet, opportunity often presents itself in the midst of hardship, and the European Energy Crisis of 2022 is no different. This essay …