Economics Commons^™

The Shift From Defined Benefit Pensions To 401(K) Plans And The Pension Assets Of The Baby Boom Cohort, James Poterba, Steven Venti, David A. Wise

Dartmouth Scholarship

The rise of 401(k) plans and the decline of defined benefit plans will have an important effect on the wealth of future retirees. Changing demographic structure also will affect the aggregate stock of retirement wealth. We project the stock of assets held in retirement plans and the average retirement saving of retirees through 2040. Our projections show large increases in wealth at retirement, especially if the returns on corporate equities are comparable with historical returns. Retirement wealth will grow, however, even if equity returns fall substantially below their historical level.

Analysis Of The China Factor Effect On The International Dry Bulk Shipping Market, Xiaoxiao Bi

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Study On Grade Evaluation Of Port Shoreline In Jiangsu Province, Wei Li

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

The Study On Sinochem Shipping Corporation’S Fleet Expansion, Yunhao Ji

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Analysis Of Shanghai Port's Competitiveness After The Operation Of Yangshan Deep-Water Port, Wei Jiang

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

The Study On The Vessel Size Of Container Transport In The Yangtze River, Chenchen Peng

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Research And Analysis On The Competence Of China’S Chemical Shipping Enterprise, Huan Yu

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

The Analysis Of The Bullwhip Effect In Chinese Medicine Supply Chain, Haiming Zhu

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Stochastic Modeling Of Retail Mortgage Loans Based On Past Due, Prepaid, And Default States, Chang Liu

Doctoral Dissertations

Stochastic models were developed that provide important measures related to retail mortgages and credit cards for the management of a bank. Based on Markov theory, two models were developed that predict mortgage portfolio size and expected duration of stay in each of the states, which are defined according to the criteria of Basel Accord II and the Federal Reserve Bank. Also, to facilitate comparisons among different types of credit products and different time periods, a model was developed to generate a health index for a retail mortgage. This model could be easily extended, using multivariate regression or multivariate time series …

Oil. China And Oil In The Asian Pacific Region: Rising Demand For Oil, Pablo Bustelo

New England Journal of Public Policy

China’s growing demand for oil is significantly changing the international geopolitics of energy, especially in the Asian Pacific region. The recent growth in oil consumption, combined with forecasts of increased oil imports (especially from the Middle East), have led to deep concern among Chinese leaders regarding their country’s energy security. They are responding in a number of different ways. In particular, they are searching for new sources of supply and seeking to control purchases and transport lanes, while boosting national production at any cost. This is already causing tension with the United States and other big oil consumers, such as …

Fueling The Superpowers: Nexus Of Foreign Policy And Energy Security, Jack Blum

New England Journal of Public Policy

This article talks about the oil history and the role government and international politics has played in it.

Oil. Seeking Peace In The Niger Delta: Oil, Natural Gas, And Other Vital Resources, Darren Kew, David L. Phillips

New England Journal of Public Policy

Nigeria’s oil-rich Niger Delta region has seen little benefit from the billions of dollars earned from oil over the last four decades, prompting a growing but disorganized insurgency across the region. Irresponsible oil companies and government officials have reduced the Niger Delta to one of the most polluted environments on earth. Corrupt local and national politicians, many of whom came to power through rigged elections, have colluded to manipulate ethnic divisions amid poverty to loot the region’s wealth. Consequently, the people of the Niger Delta have no formal political voice in Nigeria’s nascent democratic system, increasing the appeal of militias …

A Dynamic-Trend Exponential Smoothing Model, Don Miller, Dan Williams

Publications and Research

Forecasters often encounter situations in which the local pattern of a time series is not expected to persist over the forecasting horizon. Since exponential smoothing models emphasize recent behavior, their forecasts may not be appropriate over longer horizons. In this paper, we develop a new model in which the local trend line projected by exponential smoothing converges asymptotically to an assumed future long-run trend line, which might be an extension of a historical long-run trend line. The rapidity of convergence is governed by a parameter. A familiar example is an economic series exhibiting persistent long-run trend with cyclic variation. This …

Oil. The Geopolitics Of Oil And Natural Gas, Alan Larson

New England Journal of Public Policy

Ensuring the reliability of global energy supplies will call for policies that both encourage the use of newer, cleaner energy technologies and address the political challenges posed by the world’s growing demand for oil and natural gas. U.S. policy seeks to encourage expansion and diversification of world energy supplies and to promote the transparency and democratic institutions that help energy-producing countries make the most productive use of their resources.

Fueling The Superpowers: Russia As A Player In World Energy, Theresa Sabonis-Helf

New England Journal of Public Policy

This article by Theresa Sabonis-Helf is taken from the proceedings of the EPIIC Symposium at Tufts University, February 2005

Fueling The Superpowers: Potential Hazard For U.S.-China Relations, Travis Tanner

New England Journal of Public Policy

This article by Travis Tanner is taken from the proceedings of the EPIIC Symposium at Tufts University, February 2005

Oil. Geopolitics Reborn: Oil, Natural Gas, And Other Vital Resources, Michael T. Klare

New England Journal of Public Policy

Competition over vital resources is a potent source of international friction among nations and within states. The result is the increasing interplay of international and internal struggles and the growing militarization of the global energy resource quest.

Oil. Changing Geopolitics Of Oil In Asia & The Usa, Jay Hein, John Clark, Robert Ebel, Dong Hyung Cha, Richard Lotspeich

New England Journal of Public Policy

One of the most important responsibilities the United States assumed following World War II was ensuring the stable flow of relatively inexpensive oil to the industrialized and industrializing countries of the world. A glance at a list of the top petroleum exporting countries shows that most of them are poor, have despotic governments, and experience frequent bouts of political instability and ideological extremism.

Fueling Samoa’S Growing Transport Sector: The Impact Of Rising Oil Prices And Imports On A Pacific Island Economy, Janis Mcdaid Ikeda

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

The developed nations of the world are more concerned than ever with reducing their dependence on imported oil, lowering greenhouse gas emissions and developing alternative energy technologies. These issues are among the highest priorities for developing economies in the Pacific region as well. Samoa is a part of several regional initiatives that address petroleum and energy issues and is due to launch its own national energy policy in the coming months.

Petroleum prices in Samoa are low in comparison to other parts of the region because of the unique government/oil company partnership that administers its oil imports and pricing; however …

How Do Women In Prek Toal Village (Tonle Sap Biosphere Reserve, Cambodia) Participate In And Benefit From Ecotourism?, Amy Dowley

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Abstract This study assesses how women in the floating village of Prek Toal in the Tonle Sap Biosphere Reserve, participate and benefit from the ecotourism activities in their area. The study also investigates women’s perspective on ecotourism within their community, how it affects their lives, and if they have expectations of current and future benefits or changes resulting from ecotourism. This study is conducted in the context of current studies on livelihoods in the Tonle Sap region, including the recent technical report, “Influence of Built Structures on Local Livelihoods: Case Studies of Road Development, Irrigation, and Fishing Lots,”(ADB, 2007a) identifying …

The Role Of Industrial And Traditional Fishing In Sustainable Resource Management, Aime Schwartz

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

For decades, the notion of ‘sustainable development’ has been a source of international contention and debate. While the meanings and implications of sustainable development are widely disputed, it is interpreted by many as an ideal that encompasses social, environmental and economic spheres while promoting the value of human rights in development. Theoretically, this approach allows for the quality of life of current and future generations to be considered in environmental decision-making and formally recognized by national and international standards, dictated primarily by wealthy industrialized governments (Adebowale et al 138). Policy-makers in developing nations continuously face the struggle to balance the …

Selected Lid Projects In New England, New England Environmental Finance Center

Planning

Examples of low impact development (LID) projects in each state in New England.

Ley Y Desorden: La Participación, La Política, Y La Planificación En El Archipiélago De Bocas Del Toro, Sage E. Trombulak

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

The Bocas del Toro Archipelago is quickly becoming one of Panama’s most popular destinations, both for tourists pursuing temporary fun-in-the-sun type activities and for wealthy Panamanians, Americans, and Europeans seeking a more permanent location for their vacation homes, luxury resorts, and retirement communities. These dual phenomena have become a subject of escalating concern for the political leadership in Bocas del Toro and for a plethora of local, regional, and international NGOs, as unprecedented levels of development are leading to the degradation of one of Panama’s most beautiful and biologically diverse landscapes, stresses on urban infrastructure, and rapid economic growth that …

The Growing Together Guide: A Companion Resource To The New England Environmental Finance Center/Melissa Paly Film, New England Environmental Finance Center

Smart Growth

What local leader or public official wants to be faced with an SOS the “same old story” of public discord and confrontation over growth and development in one’s community? That situation has become a problem for efforts to promote smart growth. Investments are needed in the walkable, compact, traditional‐streetscape and mixed use neighborhoods and developments that are more sustainable and healthy than sprawl, for both people and the landscape. Yet attempts at such change all too often end up mired in costly public controversy and stalemate.

Mansfield Ct: Planning A New Village Center, Maggie Jones, Richard Barringer

Planning

The case follows the development of a plan for a new village center in Storrs, the central village of Mansfield, Connecticut. A process that was transparent and inclusive of the community members yielded a plan that gained the approval of the Town, the landowner (the University of Connecticut), and the citizenry. The process relied on the mending of fences, the leadership of key participants, and an innovative strategy that included development of a nonprofit corporation and creative use of grant money. While zoning changes are still in the works, the first stage of building goes forward.

South Kingstown Ri: New Zoning For An Historic Mill, Maggie Jones, Richard Barringer

Planning

The village of Peace Dale in the town of South Kingstown, Rhode Island, developed around several mills that commenced operations in the 1800s. One mill, known as the Palisades, is still partially active and in excellent condition, but much of its square footage is unutilized. A citizens’ group of artists and business people joined with the mill owners and the town of South Kingstown to develop new zoning regulations to make more flexible the permitted uses for the mill site. The proposed zoning will allow the mill complex to feature a mix of retail, residential, and manufacturing uses, while preserving …

Changing Maine, 1960-2010: Teaching Guide, Richard Barringer, New England Environmental Finance Center

Maine History & Policy Development

Unlike forty years ago, none of us is now certain what the future holds for Maine – except that it will be different. Maine has been transformed by the events of the recent decades. We have come into a new world, a new time – a new historical era, if you will. This new era, like previous eras in Maine history, will require of us new ways of thinking, new ways of understanding, new ways of organizing ourselves as a community of people, if the values and culture we share and cherish are to endure and flourish.

Projecting The Economic Impact Of The Fayetteville Shale Play For 2005-2008, Jeffery T. Collins, Katherine A. Deck

Publications and Presentations

This study projects the general economic impact from exploration and development activities related to the Fayetteville Shale. The Fayetteville Shale is an unconventional gas reservoir located on the Arkansas side of the Arkoma Basin, ranging in thickness from 50 to 325 feet and ranging in depth from 1,500 to 6,500 feet. The Fayetteville Shale is aerially extensive and may be present across numerous counties in central and eastern Arkansas, including the counties of Cleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Independence, Johnson, St. Francis, Prairie, Van Buren, White, and Woodruff.

Profile Likelihood Estimation Of Partially Linear Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Aman Ullah

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider consistent estimation of partially linear panel data models with fixed effects. We propose profile-likelihood-based estimators for both the parametric and nonparametric components in the models and establish convergence rates and asymptotic normality for both estimators.

Modeling And Simulation Of Value -At -Risk In The Financial Market Area, Xiangyin Zheng

Doctoral Dissertations

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is a statistical approach to measure market risk. It is widely used by banks, securities firms, commodity and energy merchants, and other trading organizations. The main focus of this research is measuring and analyzing market risk by modeling and simulation of Value-at-Risk for portfolios in the financial market area. The objectives are (1) predicting possible future loss for a financial portfolio from VaR measurement, and (2) identifying how the distributions of the risk factors affect the distribution of the portfolio. Results from (1) and (2) provide valuable information for portfolio optimization and risk management.

The model systems chosen …