Economics Commons^™

Macroprudential Regulation Of Mortgage Lending, Steven L. Schwarcz

Faculty Scholarship

Much regulatory effort has been devoted to improving mortgage lending, the principal source of housing finance. To date, that effort has primarily been microprudential—intended to correct market failures in order to increase economic efficiency. In contrast, and while there is some overlap, this article focuses on a more “macroprudential” regulation of mortgage lending—intended to reduce systemic risk. Although largely underdeveloped in the literature, the macroprudential regulation of mortgage lending would have two goals: an ex ante goal of preventing systemic shocks in housing finance and the housing sector, and an ex post goal of ensuring that housing finance, the housing …

The Effects Of The One-Child Policy On Household Financial Decisions, Sylvia M. Xu

Honors Theses

The Chinese One-Child Policy, enacted in 1979, was an attempt to decrease the population growth rate following a period of massive social and political confusion and uncertainty. While the policy was beneficial to curbing the population growth in China, it also introduced unintentional consequences, including sex imbalance, and other demographic differences. The goal of this paper is to examine the economic behavior and financial decisions of son-families and daughter-families across different provinces and regions of China, which have varying levels of sex imbalance, as a result of a cultural preference for sons. These financial decisions include the household saving rate, …

Coordination Of Monetary And Fiscal Policies: The Case Of Egypt, Sahar M. Abdel-Haleim

Business Administration

Coordination is defined as the necessary arrangements that assure that the decisions taken by monetary and fiscal authorities are not contradictory. The need for effective coordination of policies becomes pressing with the increasing independence of both authorities to implement their objectives. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the extent of coordination between monetary and fiscal policies in Egypt over the period (1974-2015). Quantifying the extent of coordination depends on the appropriate policy mix that responds effectively to different shocks. The results confirm that coordination of policies was absent or weak during most of the period under study, while …

Why Are We Still Listening To This Dead British Guy: An Analysis Of Emergency Liquidity Assistance In Germany During The Sovereign Debt Crisis, Nia R. Gillenwater

Scripps Senior Theses

Germany’s position of power within the European Union disguises how impacted the German economy was by the 2008 Financial Crisis and Europe’s subsequent Sovereign Debt Crisis. Two of Germany’s major banks-Commerzbank and Bayerische Landesbank- suffered major losses and required emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to survive. Walter Bagehot wrote the theory underpinning lenders of last resort (LLRs) in 1873 but how has the development of systemically important banks affected the usefulness of Bagehot’s theory? This paper aims to explain why Germany is in need of updated LLR recommendations through an analysis of the ELA Germany at large, Commerzbank and Bayerische Landesbank …

The Impact Of Oil Sector On The Global Competitiveness Of Gcc Countries: Panel Data Approach, Anas Alqudah, Ahmed Badawi, Mostafa Aboelsoud

Economics

This study explores the impact of oil sector on the global competitiveness of the GCC states in a panel data framework for the period from 2006 to 2014. The focus is placed on how the non-traditional factors; oil rents, fuel exports as a percentage of merchandise exports, oil prices, and mining sector production impact on the global competitiveness of the GCC nations.

The study uses panel data techniques to measure the effect of the oil sector’s impact on of global competitiveness of the GCC countries. The results of the regression show that the relation between rent and GCI found to …

Linnearity Calculations, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Linearity calculations by Anwar Shaikh, PhD (pp. 1-2)
• Measuring curvature by Anwar Shaikh, PhD (p. 4)
• Your library materials are overdue by New York University and Consortium Libraries (p. 14)
• White, A. D. (1896). Fiat money inflation in France: How it came, what it brought, and how it ended. D. Appleton and Co. (p. 14)
• O'Brien, T. J. (1991). A simple binomial no-arbitrage model of the term structure: With applications to the valuation of interest-sensitive options and interest-rate swaps. Salomon Brothers Center for the Study of Financial Institutions. (p. 14)
• Curvature measure: Numeric calculations by …

Marx, Map, Itoh Koc Letters, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Capitalism: competition, conflict, crises by Anwar Shaikh, 2016, Oxford University Press.
• Karl Marx in Camden by London Borough of Camden Libraries and Arts Department, 1983, London Borough of Camden.
• Letter to Anwar Shaikh by Yıldırım Koç, 1985, Unpublished manuscript.
• Letter to Anwar Shaikh by Makoto Itoh, 1975, Unpublished manuscript.
• Handwritten notes on envelope by Anwar Shaikh, PhD, 1976, Unpublished manuscript.

Decrypting Bitcoin Prices And Adoption Rates Using Google Search, Varun Puri

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I analyze Bitcoin price formation and adoption rates at a global and national level. In determining Bitcoin prices, I consider contemporaneous and lagged values of traditional determinants of currencies, such as inflation and industrial production, and digital currency specific factors, primarily public interest. Using monthly time-series data across five years (2011 – 2016), I find that global public interest in Bitcoin, measured by Google searches for the keyword ‘Bitcoin,’ has a positive and significant impact on Bitcoin prices. I extend the analysis to a country level by employing a proxy for adoption rates, represented by the number …

A Critical Examination Of Oil Wealth Management Strategies And Their Effects On Economic Growth In The Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, Caroline J. Belmont

CMC Senior Theses

Despite their natural resources, the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman) have failed to live up to their economic potential, primarily due to their dependence on a revenue source with volatile prices and political significance in an unstable region. This thesis argues that the best way to convert oil wealth into consistent long term growth is through diversification, both by investing in foreign assets and by growing domestic sectors that are independent from oil and gas prices. The research further investigates the primary tool these countries have used to …

Oil Exploration Economics: Empirical Evidence From Indonesian Geological Basins, Hari Patria, Vid Adrison

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Oil exploration has been subject to economic research for decades. Earlier studies of exploration models are mostly discussed the behavior of exploration at the macro-level analysis such as field, firm, region, and continental. This paper then focuses on the geological and economic factors that determine the well-drilling decision at the micro-level using disaggregated panel data of 32 geological basins in Indonesia over the period of 2004-2013. This study shows that the number of drilled wells is determined significantly by the lag of success rate, lag of discovery size, lag of global oil price, and regional location of geological basin.

Managing Productivity In The Infrastructure Sector: A Case Study From Indonesia, Eric R. W. Knight

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This paper considers the nature of assessing productivity and effectiveness in infrastructure investment in the context of governments increasing investment in new infrastructure. Taking the case of energy infrastructure investment within Indonesia, this paper makes three contributions: (i) develops a model for assessing infrastructure productivity based on landscape, regime and niche-level changes, (ii) suggests the interconnection between these levels based on sequencing multi-level changes over time, and (iii) shows the role of supply and demand side initiatives in enabling new infrastructure investment is evaluated.

Determinants Of Firm Innovation In Indonesia: The Role Of Institutions And Access To Finance, Edo Mahendra, Ubaidillah Zuhdi, Ratnawati Muyanto

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This paper investigates the determinants of firm innovation in Indonesia. Using quality of local regulations index constructed by the Indonesia's Regional Autonomy Watch (KPPOD) as measure of institutions, We found that better institutional quality at the local level was associated with more innovation and that firms experiencing major obstacle in access to finance were less likely to innovate. Access to finance is more critical for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) whereas institutional quality is more important for large firms. The positive impact of better institutions on innovation is asymmetrically distributed. Better local institutional quality disproportionately benefited non-constrained firms.

Unequal Impact Of Price Changes In Indonesia, Ruly Pratikno, Mohamad Ikhsan

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

The main idea of this study is to determine the impact of relative inflation on poverty incidents and to investigate whether inflation inequality has occurred in Indonesia. Interesting results were found at regional level. Firstly, Jakarta had different poverty response with respect to price increases. Processed food and transportation inflation were more imperative for the poor in Jakarta. Secondly, the poor in province with low poverty figures were more prone to inflation. In general, the results show that food inflation has the major adverse impact on the poor. Moreover, we found that inflation in Indonesia has not been pro-poor.

Inflation, External Market Performance And Government Policy: An Empirical Investigation Using Var-Vecm Approach In The Context Of Ethiopia, Nardos M. Beyene

International Journal of African Development

This study aims at determining the effectiveness of demand management policies in stabilizing the macroeconomic environment of Ethiopian economy. Inflation and Balance of Payments are used as the two indicators of stability. The researcher made use of Co-integrated VAR approach and estimates inflation and balance of payments equations. All together the researcher used data for the period 1976-2011. The findings of the study imply the existence of two-way relationship between inflation and balance of payments. Excess balance of payment surplus leads to inflationary pressures in the economy while inflation booming deteriorates the country’s external balance.

Working Capital Requirement And The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle, Tsu-Ting Tim Lin

Economics Faculty Publications

Shimer (2005) argues that a search and matching model of the labor market in which wage is determined by Nash bargaining cannot generate the observed volatility in unemployment and vacancy in response to reasonable labor productivity shocks. This paper examines how incorporating monopolistically competitive firms with a working capital requirement (in which firms borrow funds to pay their wage bills) improves the ability of the search models to match the empirical fluctuations in unemployment and vacancy without resorting to an alternative wage setting mechanism. The monetary authority follows an interest rate rule in the model. A positive labor productivity shock …

Macroeconomic Stabilization When The Natural Real Interest Rate Is Falling, Sebastien Buttet, Udayan Roy

Publications and Research

The authors modify the Dynamic Aggregate Demand–Dynamic Aggregate Supply model in Mankiw’s widely-used intermediate macroeconomics textbook to discuss monetary policy when the natural real interest rate is falling over time. Their results highlight a new role for the central bank’s inflation target as a tool of macroeconomic stabilization. They show that even when the zero lower bound is not binding, a prudent central bank will need to match every decrease in the natural real interest rate with an equal increase in the target rate of inflation in order to stabilize the risk of the economy falling into a deflationary spiral, …

Impact Of International Remittances On Schooling In The Philippines: Does The Relationship To The Household Head Matter?, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the impact of international remittances on schooling in the Philippines, taking into account the school-age individual's relationship to the household head. This consideration is important because employment opportunities abroad may be taken at the expense of the quality of child rearing. Our estimation results indicate that there are, indeed, significant negative guardian effects on school attendance and education expenditures when children with overseas parents are looked after by a relative other than a parent or grandparent. However, these negative effects tend to be outweighed by the positive impact of remittance flows from overseas.

Current Account And Real Exchange Rate Dynamics In Indonesia, Firman Mochtar, Yoga Affandi

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

We analyze the role of both permanent and temporary factors in affecting the Indonesian current account and real exchange dynamics before and after 2000. Adopting Lee and Chinn (1998; 2006) approach as well as Chinn et al. (2007), two results stand out. First, we confirm that the behavior of the real exchange rate has altered since 2000. Identifications show that permanent shocks are the primary causes for the movements of the real exchange rate after 2000, while in the period before 2000, the Indonesian real exchange rates changes are characterized by greater dominance of temporary shocks. The apparent change in …

Improving Human Capital Through Better Education To Support Indonesia's Economic Development, Latif Adam, Siwage Dharma Negara

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Despite Indonesia's impressive economic growth, it still lags behind other countries with a similar income level in terms of the quality of its human capital. This paper argues that one key factor explaining this low quality of human capital relates to the lack of focus and clear strategies to develop its education system. This paper attempts to assess Indonesia's current state of human capital development with particular focus on it's education sector. In order to benefit from its demographic bonus, Indonesia needs to to improve its current education and skill training system. Better education and skill training system will support …

Rural Electrification Program In Indonesia: Comparing Sehen And Shs Program, Maxensius Tri Sambodo

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

In 2014, the Indonesian government has targets to obtain 80% of electrification ratio and 98.9% of rural electrification ratio. Extending the grid and off-grid connection has been done to obtain the targets. This paper aims to compare two main programs on rural electrification namely Super Extra Energy Saving (Super Ekstra Hemat Energi, SEHEN) that is belong to PLN (state owned company in electricity) and the Solar Home System (SHS) that is financed by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR). Indonesia has started the rural electrification program in the late 1950s, but how to provide electricity in a sustainable …

Revisiting Stock Market Integration Pre-Post Subprime Mortgage Crisis: Insight From Bric Countries, Rayenda Brahmana, Chin-Hong Puah, Kai-Hung Wong

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study revisits the long-run relationships and short-run dynamic causal linkages among BRIC stock market, with the particular attention to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. Extending related empirical studies, comparative analyses of pre-crisis, and post-crisis periods were conducted to comprehensively evaluate how stock market integration was affected by financial crises. In general, after employing cointegration test and VAR test, the results reveal the increase of stock market integration in BRICs after the subprime crisis. The evidence also found that China stock market is the most influential among the BRICs, in which China stock market has the ability to Granger cause …

"Does Inflation Targeting Framework Make A Significant Difference In Lowering Price Level?" What Is Its Implication To Indonesia's Inflation Rate?, Faisal Rachman

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

In the last two decades many countries have been starting to employ Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF) as their main monetary policy framework. This is done to achieve an objective of anchoring public expectation on inflation which in the end will steer the price level movement towards ITF's ultimate target of relatively low and stable inflation rate. By conducting Difference-in-Difference method on panel data consisting of five countries implementing ITF since 2001 and twenty-one selected non-ITF countries for period 1990-2010, it is statistically proved that ITF adoption has a significant effect on inflation. In case of Indonesia, through Structural Break approach, …

The Role Of The State In Singapore: Pragmatism In Pursuit Of Growth, Kim Song Tan, Manu Bhaskaran

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper looks at how government intervention shapes the evolution of the Singapore economy and accounts for its successes and failures over the past 50 years. Compared with other dynamic Asian economies, the Singapore government's approach to intervene in the economy is both more extensive and more intrusive, but with a narrow focus on GDP growth and surplus accumulation as the primary objectives. The ruling government's near complete dominance in politics has enabled it to mobilize resources to create the preconditions for strong GDP growth and high savings. But the impact on the broader development of the economy and the …

Determinants Of Farm And Non-Farm Family-Controlled Child Labor, Kofi Acheampong

International Journal of African Development

Ninety five percent of the child labor in Africa takes place in private households where children are controlled by their relatives. While this is a major problem, the literature provides little discussion on the determinants of this form of child labor. To fill this gap, I examine the determinants of farm and non-farm family-controlled child labor using data from the 2009 Ghana Time Use Survey. The findings indicate that school networks, the education level of the head of household, and religion play important roles in determining children’s activities in both farm and non-farm work.

Predictability Of Exchange Rates With Taylor Rule Fundamentals: Evidence From Inflation-Targeting Emerging Countries, Joseph D. Alba, Donghyun Park, Taojun Xie

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate the out-of-sample predictability of U.S. dollar exchange rates with Taylor rule fundamentals in thirteen emerging countries with inflation-targeting monetary policy regimes. We find some evidence of out-of-sample exchange rate predictability for Brazil, Czech Republic, Hungary, Philippines, Thailand, and South Africa. Plots of the coefficients of U.S. inflation and Philippine inflation predict the direction of the U.S. dollar-Philippine peso exchange rates to be opposite to that predicted by the Taylor principle.

European Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee (Esfrc) (2015) : Escalating Crisis In The Eurozone: The Case For Conditional Debt Relief For Greece (Statement No. 40), David Veredas, Niels Thygesen, Tom Berglund, Reinhard H. Schmidt, Franco Bruni, Harald Benink, Kern Alexander, Santiago Carbo-Valverde, Rosa Lastra, Clas Wihlborg

Business Faculty Articles and Research

In this statement the European Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee (ESFRC) is advocating a conditional relief of Greek's government debt based on Greece meeting certain targets for structural economic reforms in areas such as its labor market and pensions sector. The authors argue that the position of the European institutions that debt relief for Greece cannot be part of an agreement is based on the illusion that Greece will be able to service its sovereign debt and reduce its debt overhang after implementing a set of fiscal and structural reforms. However, the Greek economy would need to grow at an unrealistic …

Is All Foreign Aid The Same? : An Empirical Comparison Of The Effect Of Multilateral And Bilateral Aid On Growth, Scott B. Jeffrey

Undergraduate Economic Review

Despite decades of research on foreign aid, there is little to no consensus on foreign aid’s effect on growth. While most in the field study recipient country characteristics, such as institutional quality, this paper also breaks down foreign aid by donor characteristics, specifically by bilateral and multilateral donors. Since about 75% of foreign aid is bilateral, my bilateral findings are in line with previous literature that finds high institutional quality key (Burnside and Dollar 2000; 2004), but I find that multilateral aid works best in low-income countries with poor policy environments, due, perhaps, to lacking political goals of donor countries.

The Impact Of Foreign Direct Investment On Labor Market Measures: Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa, David A. Mayom

Master's Theses

There is scant literature examining the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and labor market measures in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. This paper explores the effect of FDI on the labor market measures using panel data of 48 Sub-Saharan African Countries from 1991 to 2009. The result indicates that FDI has a positive and significant effect on employment implying that an increase in the inflow of FDI is associated with higher employment. Thus, Sub-Saharan African governments should strongly consider poverty alleviation and employment policies that encourage and direct FDI to the industries where it can significantly reduce unemployment.

Gender Bias In Microlending: Do Opposites Attract?, Kanyinsola Adepoju

Master's Theses

This study exploits a quasi-random assignment of clients to loan officers using a unique database and survey from a large microfinance bank in Nigeria to show that opposite-sex preferences affect credit demand and supply. We find that clients matched to loan officers of the opposite gender are more likely to receive credit and are more likely to return for an additional loan with the credit lender.

The Curious Case Of Greece: The Impact Of Fiscal Policy Shocks On Key Macroeconomic Variables. A Var Based Approach., Manny Kaliontzakis

Master's Theses

For years, the Vector Autoregressive approach has been the main tool for monetary economics and macroeconomic researchers around the world. Leading central banking figures, academics, and modern economic think tanks have used the approach to determine the effects of interest rate shocks on basic macroeconomic variables such as GDP, industrial production and unemployment rate. Shocking policy variables, such as interest rates or long term bond rates have given economists the ability to run reliable forecasts. The last 20 years have seen a turn in the use of the VAR approach on fiscal policy as well. Even though, in general, previous …