Economics Commons^™

A Pandemic Of Protectionism: How Economic Isolationism Affects The Economy, Álvaro Martín

Journal of New Finance

The aim of this paper is to study the economic consequences of protectionism from a macroeconomic perspective. For that purpose, we estimate the impact of tariffs on different economic variables as GDP growth, trade volume or unemployment, comparing the effects for two groups of countries: high-income and low-income. For this, we build a regression model to estimate the effects of tariff changes on each of these variables, differentiating between the two groups of countries. Tariffs contribute to increase unemployment, generate lower economic growth and reduce trade volumes, but by how much? This is very relevant in the actual pandemic environment …

Fiscal Sustainability In Indonesia With Asymmetry, Mohamad Ikhsan, I Gede Sthitaprajna Virananda

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

The management of fiscal balance determines public debt sustainability, where a positive response of primary balance towards the debt ratio indicates a sustainable path. However, there might be asymmetry in the government's fiscal management between different phases of the debt trajectory and business cycle. This study examines the sustainability of fiscal imbalance and public debt in Indonesia using the fiscal reaction function with annual fiscal data from 1976 to 2019. We incorporate asymmetry by decomposing the lagged debt ratio and cyclical output variables into their positive and negative partial sums. We find that Indonesia's fiscal imbalance is on a path …

Factors To Improve Fishery Household Welfare: Empirical Analysis Of Indonesia, Bayu Rhamadani Wicaksono, Yuniarti Yuniarti, Dede Yoga Paramartha

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study attempts to verify the linkage between the characteristics of fishers and the welfare of fishery household in Indonesia, which is explained by the surplus obtained by fishers. Based on the empirical results using multiple linear regression analysis, variables with significant impacts on improving the welfare of fishery household in Indonesia in both marine and inland open water fisheries are fishing gear, number of fishers, number of crew, salary, province, age, gender, education level, processed storage, transportation, and market target. Furthermore, the characteristics of fishers are divided into similarities and differences. Observed from the similarities, the main fishers play …

The Role Of Macroeconomic And Policy Uncertainty In Density Forecast Dispersion, You Li, Anthony S. Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

We explore empirically the role of macroeconomic and policy uncertainty in explaining dispersion in professional forecasters’ density forecasts, and in explaining individual forecaster uncertainty (defined as the uncertainty expressed by individual forecasters in their density forecasts). We focus on US real output growth and inflation, using data from the Philadelphia Fed’s quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), 1992-2016. We find that dispersion in individual density forecasts is related to macroeconomic uncertainty, especially in longer horizon forecasts, but not policy or forecaster uncertainty. There is also little evidence that forecaster uncertainty reflects macroeconomic or policy uncertainty.

Credit Limit Of Unsecured Consumer Lending: Evidence From Micro Data, Suwinto Johan, Calista Endrina Dewi

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

As credit card debts have increased in Indonesia over the past ten years, concerns over the impulsive buying behavior of Indonesian credit card holders have emerged. Therefore, more attention must be paid to credit risk management of banks as it plays an important role in analyzing the possibility of losses due to the inability of prospective borrowers to repay debts. This study provides empirical evidence about the prudence of commercial banks in Greater Jakarta in offering credit card limits. Using primary micro-data collected from credit card applications submitted to the largest foreign private bank providing retail credit in the Greater …

Indonesian Provinces Sdgs Composite Index: Lampung Province Analysis, Reny Andriati, Mohamad Fahmi

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Publications of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have mainly been conducted at a national level and separately for each goal. No prior research has been done on SDGs composite index at a provincial level in Indonesia. It is necessary to create a composite index that presents a single value at the provincial level to enable regional evaluation. The Indonesia Province SDGs composite index is developed from indicators based on Statistics Indonesia gathered from several publications. The data sources are the National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas) and the Basic Health Research (Riskesdas) which were linked surveys held in 2018. Principal Component Analysis and …

The Impact Of The Capital Market, The Insurance Sector And The Mortgage Finance Sector On Economic Growth In Egypt, 2005-2019, Hana Anis

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis aims to explore the relationship between financial markets and economic growth in Egypt for the 15 years period, starting from 2005 to 2019. The study concentrates on the non-banking financial sector which includes the stock market, the debt market, the mortgage and the insurance sectors. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is utilized to describe the relationship between GDP growth rate, as a proxy for economic growth, and a number of variables from the financial sector. Results of the analysis show that there is a significant relationship and statistical causality between the growth rate and the debt market, represented …

Determinants Of Business Cycle Synchronisation In The Common Monetary Area In Southern Africa, Gustaf Dillner

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper examines the key factors that determine business cycle synchronisation in the Common Monetary Area in Southern Africa by applying the extreme bounds analysis. I investigate traditional structural indicators and policy indicators of output correlation with annual data from 1980 to 2018. A positive effect of sector homogeneity and trade intensity on business cycle synchronisation is identified. However, whereas sector homogeneity is a growing trend correlating with an increasing trend of cycle correlation, trade intensity is not. Instead, trade intensity increases significantly in periods of stagnant growth when cycle correlation is higher, but no long-term trend can be seen.

Financial Reporting Quality And Investment Efficiency: Evidence From Indonesian Stock Market, Iman Harymawan

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the impact of financial reporting quality on the investment efficiency of a company. The study uses 994 observations from companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in three periods from 2013Â to 2015. The findings suggest that higher financial reporting quality has a positive and significant relationship with investment efficiency. Furthermore, the tests were conducted on groups of companies experiencing underinvestment and overinvestment. It was found that higher financial reporting quality had a negative and significant relationship with companies experiencing overinvestment. The findings provide implications for investors in assessing investment management carried out by …

Reimagining China’S Transportation Funding Investments In Africa In The Context Of Covid-1, Clovia Hamilton, Sira Maliphol

Technology & Society Faculty Publications

Africa has not invested enough in its healthcare system, and China has been investing in and financing much of Africa’s transportation system. Many African countries’ fragile health and transportation systems have been further weakened by the COVID-19 pandemic. This literature review confirms the interdependence of the key functional areas of comprehensive development planning and the importance of building and maintaining a sound transportation infrastructure. With respect to partnerships with China, African nations need to strengthen government functional areas more comprehensively, considering all of the areas of development planning including trade as well as transportation and aid issues. It is all …

The Impact Of Covid-19 And The Lockdown On The Uk Economy, Elliot Wylie

Honors Program Theses

This thesis analyses the macroeconomic impacts of Covid-19 and the lockdown on the UK’s economy. GDP in the second quarter of 2020 fell by 19%, the largest quarterly decrease in GDP for the UK on record. Consumption and investment in this quarter decreased significantly resulting in the large decrease in GDP. The unemployment rate remained relatively low, for the large decrease in GDP, throughout the pandemic and only increased to 5.0% in December 2020. The effective Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) and the Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) have kept unemployment low. The schemes have paid for 12.2 million workers’ …

Three Essays On Export Earnings Volatility, Yoonseon Han

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

My dissertation consists of three essays on export earnings volatility. In the first essay, I look at the determinants of export earnings volatility. The four main determinants suggested by the theoretical literature are export concentration, durability, vertical linkages, and financial vulnerability. A panel of bilateral trade data at the industry level, containing 178 exporting countries, 194 importing countries, and 590 SITC Rev. 1 four-digit industries from 1962 to 2011, is used and these aspects are incorporated to empirically examine their effects on export earnings volatility. The essay finds that diversifying exports across different industries and trade partners plays an important …

Can Investment Shocks Helps To Explain The Us Business Cycles?, Swapnil Landge

Publications and Research

In this paper, I developed a standard neoclassical growth model to understand the importance of investment shock on business cycle fluctuation. In addition to investment shock, my model includes technology shock too. Using the Simulation-based PEA (Parameterized expectations algorithm) approach, i estimate the Model. The model provides evidence that investment shocks constitute a significant force behind U.S. business cycles. Model in this paper reaffirms the comovement of consumption and investment with output and accurately predicts the Investment to output,capital to output ratio and the labour for the US economy.

The Predictive Power Of The Term Structure Under Unconventional Monetary Policies, Luying Yang

Honors Theses

Previous research has confirmed a positive relationship between the slope of the yield spread and future economic growth. Since the start of the Great Recession, a number of developed economies have hit the zero lower bound and adopted unconventional monetary policies such as large-scale bond/asset purchase programs and negative interest rate policies. This paper finds that the yield spread’s predictive power generally deteriorates after the central bank adopts its first bond purchase program. However, there is no general pattern of how these unconventional monetary policies impact the yield spread’s forecasting ability across countries.

The Effects Of Imf's Lending And Conditionalities On Economic Growth: Case Of Sadc Countries, Lutete Celina Carlos

Masters Theses

I examine the impact of IMF credit use and its conditions on economic growth performance in 12 South African countries over a period of 1999-2019. The work adopts an empirical and quantitative approach to analyzing the relationship between the GDP per Capita, the use of IMF Credit, Government Final Consumption Expenditure, Net Domestic Credit and Current Account balance. These variables are the most recommended in the IMF conditionalities during the lending arrangements with SADC members. The study uses Fixed-effect approach to evaluate how the use of IMF program and the conditions imposed directly affects economic growth. A dummy variable is …

Kerentanan Perbankan Di Indonesia: Pengukuran Dan Penyebabnya, Wisnu Wibowo, Amir Ambyah Zakaria

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

This study aims to identify banking vulnerabilities and analyze the factors that influence them. The tool used to identify bank vulnerabilities uses modification crisis and default index (C&D Index) while hypothesis testing uses logit regression. Commercial banks in Indonesia from 2008 to 2018 was taken as sample. As a result, in 2008 and 2013 were the most vulnerable conditions for banks in Indonesia. The reason most banks have been identified as vulnerable is due to decreased profits, increased liabilities in foreign currencies and increased Non Performing Loan (NPL). Logit regression test show that banking fragility is negatively related to capital, …

Finance And Economic Performance Across Countries, Monika Islam Khan

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

My dissertation consists of three papers on finance and economic performance across countries. The first paper applies the gravity model of international trade to quantify the impact of the banking sector and the stock market on bilateral trade patterns. Following the study of capital structure, I evaluate the mix of external financing sources used for real investment at the macroeconomic level by differentiating between the relative roles of the banking sector and stock market development in determining trade patterns. Using aggregate bilateral trade data for 87 countries over 1976-2012, I find that stock market development has a substantial impact on …

Sustainability And Economics Of White Oak (Quercus Alba) Timber Supply In Kentucky, Gaurav Dhungel

Theses and Dissertations--Forestry and Natural Resources

Sustained timber supply relies upon balanced forest age distribution, where the level of harvesting and mortality is compensated by regeneration and growth among younger age classes. However, current forest inventory trends from the white oak growing region reveal sustainability threat from declining white oak regeneration and recruitment leading to disproportionate inventory structure. Consequently, there exists growing concern among stakeholders on long-term sustainability of white oak timber and its economic implications, particularly in Kentucky, because of the significance of the species to the state’s economy. This research aims to examine past and current inventory levels of white oak in Kentucky using …

Does Foreign Direct Investment And Trade Promote Economic Growth? Evidence From Albania, Sam Hobbs, Dimitrios Paparas, Mostafa Aboelsoud

Economics

Purpose: Albania has experienced a rapid transition from a centrally planned economy to a mixed economy since the fall of communism in 1989. Policy changes, trade liberalization, and privatization have come about at a rapid pace, allowing foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade to become key components of Albania’s economy. Against this backdrop, this study investigates the relationships among FDI, trade, and economic growth in Albania.

Methodology: Annual time-series data were obtained from the World Bank. Then, the following econometric tests were performed on the variables representing FDI inflows, exports, and GDP as proxies for FDI, trade, and economic …

Classical Models, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

22-17_Classical Models.pdf You said: as an archivist detailing a new entry, analyze the uploaded file and give an outline of the material with all dates standardized, all bullet-point item formatting, and sentence case for titles, and italics for all titles, 1.5 spacing between paragraphs, and expand the published items into full apa references with publisher details and journal information but without internet links, or further description, standardize the handwritten notes, emails, and comments into full apa-style manuscript citations so they match the level of formality of the published and class paper with all handwritten notes credited to anwar shaikh, phd …

Public Debt, Its Impact On Gdp & Crowding Out Effect: Evidence From The Usa, Swapnil Landge

Publications and Research

In this study, we examined the long-term relationship between public debt, GDP, private investment, and interest rates. We found two significant long-term relationships among these variables. First, interest rates are positively correlated with public debt and negatively correlated with GDP. Second, private investment is negatively correlated with public debt and positively correlated with GDP. These findings suggest the presence of a crowding out effect, where public debt limits private investment by increasing interest rates and reducing access to available funds.

Innovations In Money And Banking Markets, Eduardo Guimaraes Minuci

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

The U.S. banking industry has experienced several technological and banking regulatory changes in the past two decades. This dissertation is composed of three papers that review and investigate how these banking and technological innovations have impacted depositors, bank provision of monetary assets, and bank performance. The order in which the papers are presented follows the order in which they were produced as the production of one paper helped spark ideas that led to the next.

Motivated by the fact that money has become more heterogeneous in terms of its returns, Chapter 1 focus on innovations in money markets by focusing …

Recreational Marijuana In Ohio: A Cost Benefit Analysis, Noah Polanski

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This study aims to analyze the cost and benefits of legalizing recreational marijuana in Ohio by estimating the monetary value of major cost and benefit items caused by legal recreational marijuana being implementing in Ohio. Key areas that are used in the analysis to give an accurate picture of the costs and benefits of marijuana are the areas of: tax revenue, the labor market, the criminal justice system, public health and safety, and educational attainment. By focusing on changes experienced in other states that have legalized, a realistic estimation of what will happen in Ohio can be made.

Data shows …

Gambling Autonomy: The Impact Of Latin American Central Bank Independence On Risk Aversion Within Monetary Policy Implementation, Julia Duarte Schulman

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the effect of Latin American central bank independence (CBI) on risk-averse behaviors in monetary policy. Using a fixed effects panel regression, I document how multiple forms of monetary policy are influenced by different macroeconomic variables, conflicting policy targets and central bank independence benchmarks. The results show that increasing CBI has a positive impact on risk aversion, especially in policies targeting inflation and money supply. Additionally, the results show that interest rates and reserve requirements were especially susceptible to changes in independence, while the monetary base and volume of domestic credit were less influenced. Finally, as time and …

The Impact Of Disparity In Infrastructure Development On Aceh's Economic Performance: An Inter-Provincial Analysis, Mutiara Fahmi

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study provides empirical findings on regional disparity in infrastructural facilities in 23 districts/municipalities of Aceh Province and the impact of the disparity on the economic performance of Aceh Province, specifically on those of economic growth, poverty, and unemployment. The unit of analysis is the district level and the Infrastructure Development Index (IDI) is used as the variable computed by using the multivariate method. Regional disparity is measured by the Coefficient of Variation and the impact of IDI on the provinces economy is analyzed using the econometric model. The analysis shows that infrastructure development disparity exists and that IDI generally …

Public Health Spending, Governance Quality And Poverty Alleviation, Mohamad Komarudin

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Poverty alleviation has become the main priority program in most developing countries. This research empirically studies the correlation between public health spending, governance quality, and poverty alleviation in developing countries. The panel data were estimated via a random-effects (RE) model and robustness check using instrumental variables (IV) (two-stage least-squares [2SLS]) and first-difference generalized method of moments (GMM) because of the endogeneity problem. The results suggest that public health spending has a significant effect on reducing the poverty rate, and that countries with better governance tend to reduce poverty than countries with poor governance. Increasing public health spending by one percentage …

The Role Of Banking Services In Determining The Destination Countries For Indonesia's Non-Oil And Gas Export, Rini Satriani

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study aims to examine whether the risk factor and banking services play a significant role in determining not only the export performance of a country but also the pattern of export destination markets, with the reference to the case of Indonesia. These two indicators are interrelated because the risk factor in export transactions can be mitigated by banking sector. Using the data of export Letter of Credits (LCs) for non-oil and gas exports of Indonesia as a banking instrument to mitigate special risk transactions to 102 export destination countries as well as a panel data methodology for the 2011-2018 …

A Decomposition Analysis Of Fertility: Evidence From Dki Jakarta And East Nusa Tenggara, Farma Mangunsong

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Fertility control has been one of the priorities of development in Indonesia. However, the 2000 and 2010 population censuses showed an increase in fertility indicators. To identify the sources of increased fertility in developed and less developed areas, DKI Jakarta and East Nusa Tenggara Provinces were selected for comparison. Using 2000 and 2010 census data, the decomposition analysis shows that the increase in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of DKI Jakarta was dominated by the increase in nuptiality rate, while the increase in TFR of East Nusa Tenggara was mainly caused by the increase in Marital Fertility Rate (MFR). The highest …

Business Vulnerability And Credit Access For Agriculture-Based Micro And Small Women Entrepreneurs, Dewi Ratna Sjari M

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Micro and Small Industries (MSIs) constitute the largest share of Indonesia's manufacturing sector and play an important role in providing employment opportunities and value-added creation. However, their business sustainability and scaling up are often hindered by various factors, one of which is access to credit. The subsidized loan scheme provided by the government, namely People's Business Credit (KUR), appears to be insufficiently attractive to entrepreneurs, especially to Micro and Small Women Entrepreneurs (MSWEs). Employing a logit regression method and utilizing the BPS-Statistics Indonesia's 2015 MSI survey data, this study aims to investigate factors affecting MSWEs decision to apply for bank …

The International Tourism Performance Amidst Several Intervention Events: More Than 20 Years Of Multi Input Intervention Analysis In Bali, Jakarta, And Kepulauan Riau Provinces, Taly Purwa

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

As one of the priority sectors in economic development of Indonesia, tourism is expected to be the main key in accelerating economic and social growth, hence reducing poverty. The tourism performance, especially international tourism market, is highly prone to intervention events that can reduce the number of inbound tourists and produce a negative impact on economic development of the destination country. Therefore, anticipating and mitigating various intervention events is necessary to maintain the performance of the tourism sector in Indonesia. This study investigates the magnitude and patterns of impact of several intervention events on the number of international visitor arrivals …