Economics Commons^™

Investments And Risk Management Under The New Pension Scheme., Luka A. Dalang

Bullion

Pension today, has become a topical issue. one that has engaged the commitment of government, attention of employers and workers not only in Nigeria but also in many developing and emerging economies of Africa, Asia and Latin America This paper discuss the trend of investments and pension schemes with its risks and challenges in Nigeria. The study however confirmed the non applicability of the financial reform theory hypothesized by McKinnon and Shaw in Nigeria.' . The National pension Commission guidelines as mentioned earlier, are designed to ensure transparency, integrity and objectivity in the vestment process. and to ensure that the …

Non-Fundamental Expectations And Economic Fluctuations: Evidence From Professional Forecasts, Keen Meng Choy, Kenneth Leong, Anthony S. Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

It is theoretically possible that non-fundamental idiosyncratic shocks to agents’ rational expectations are a source of economic fluctuations. Studies using data on consumer and investor sentiment suggest that this is indeed an important source of fluctuations. We present the results of a study that uses forecasts from professional forecasters to extract non-fundamental shocks to expectations. In contrast to previous studies, we show that non-fundamental expectations are not a significant source of output fluctuations, although such shocks contributed to inflation.

Growth Accounting For A Follower-Economy In A World Of Ideas: The Example Of Singapore, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we take another approach to accounting for the sources of Singapore’s economic growth by being explicit about the channels through which Singapore, as a technological follower, benefits from international R&D spillovers. Taking into account the channels through which technology developed in the G5 countries diffuses to technological followers, we show that 57.5 percent of Singapore’s real GDP per worker growth rate over the 1970-2002 period is due to multifactor productivity growth. In particular, about 52 percent of the growth is accounted for by an increase in the effectiveness of accessing ideas developed by the technology leaders through …

Review Essay On The Politically Incorrect Guide To American History By Thomas E. Woods, Jr., Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Nigeria's External Trade And The New Perspectives For Its Enhancement, G. K. Sanni

Bullion

Trade has been universally acknowledged as indispensable tool to rapid economic growth and development. This is because increased participation in trade is associated with higher inflows of foreign investment and new technologies which can be adopted to transform the economy through appropriate policy. This paper analyses Nigeria's foreign trade with a view to examining the composition and direction as well as impediments to the growth of trade, and proffer suggestions for enhancing Nigeria's foreign trade. The paper is divided into five sections. Following the introduction are the theoretical issues. This is followed by the analysis in section three of the …

Central Asia: Mapping Future Prospects, Malcolm Dowling, Ganeshan Wignaraja

Research Collection School Of Economics

Central Asia has emerged as one of the world’s fastest growing regions since the late 1990s and has shown notable development potential. This is significant for a region comprising largely of small landlocked economies with no access to the sea for trade. Among the advantages, of the region are its high- priced commodities (oil, gas, cotton and gold), reasonable infrastructure and human capital as legacies of Soviet rule; and a strategic location between Asia and Europe. Furthermore, many Central Asian Republics (CARs) have embarked on market-oriented economic reforms to boost economic performance and private sector competitiveness. Central Asia: Mapping Future …

Central Asia's Transition After Fifteen Years: Growth And Policy Choices, Malcolm Dowling, Ganeshan Vignaraja

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper presents a coherent and systematic analysis of the collapse and subsequent revival of the Central Asian Republics (CARs) since 1990. The focus is on the pattern of growth and structural change during the cycle of decline and subsequent revival in the CARs which have been inadequately analyzed in the literature on transition. The paper relates economic performance to initial conditions, country characteristics and policies. Within this framework, it proposes a simple typology of policies (including a new Type III set of policies on regional cooperation and industrial competitiveness) and relates them to the cycle of decline and revival …

Reform In Lieu Of Change: Tastes Great, Less Filling, Jonathan G.S. Koppell

Publications from President Jonathan G.S. Koppell

In this response to Light, Koppell argues that the increasing frequency of reform may reflect Congress's inability to make significant changes to the substance of entrenched government programs. Moreover, he observes that the more profound evolution in government has been the movement toward the market-based provision of services, which has created a demand for new competencies in the public sector.

The Macroeconomy And Long-Term Interest Rates: An Examination Of Recent Treasury Yields, Hans W. Hardisty

Gettysburg Economic Review

From 2001 to 2006, U.S. long-term interest rates have remained steady while the federal funds rate has both declined and increased, as Figure 1 shows. Historically, long term interest rates tend to respond to changes in short term rates, but recently this does not appear to be the case. Former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, recently dubbed this occurrence a “conundrum,” because no one can provide a distinct explanation concerning this phenomenon. There are several noteworthy incentives for why long-term yields should have increased from 2004 to 2006, but they have remained constant during this time period. According …

The Gettysburg Economic Review, Volume 1, Spring 2006

Gettysburg Economic Review

No abstract provided.

Interest Rates Articles, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes.

• Tymoigne, É. (2006, November). Fisher’s theory of interest rates and the notion of “real”: A critique (Working Paper No. 483). Annandale-on-Hudson, NY: Levy Economics Institute of Bard College.

• Hannsgen, G. (2004, July). Gibson’s paradox, monetary policy, and the emergence of cycles (Working Paper No. 410). Annandale-on-Hudson, NY: Levy Economics Institute of Bard College.

• Tsiang, S. C. (1989). Loanable funds [Excerpt]. In J. Eatwell, M. Milgate, & P. Newman (Eds.), Money: The New Palgrave (pp. xxx–xxx). London, England: Palgrave Macmillan.

• Cagan, P. (1989). Monetarism [Excerpt]. In J. Eatwell, M. Milgate, & P. Newman (Eds.), …

Capital Stock Reading, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Capital stock reading: chain index readings — Shaikh, A., PhD. October 2006. Unpublished manuscript.
• OECD data series in K stock — Shaikh, A., PhD. October 20, 2006. Unpublished manuscript.
• Whelan, K. June 2000. A guide to the use of chain aggregated NIPA data. Finance and Economics Discussion Series No. 2000-35. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research and Statistics, Washington, DC.
• Marginal annotations and derivations on "a guide to the use of chain aggregated NIPA data" — Shaikh, A., PhD. No date given. Unpublished manuscript.
• Liu, Y., Hamalainen, N., & Wong, B.-S. 2003. …

Capacity Utilization Paper, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2006, January). Capacity utilization paper [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Reference list for a paper on capacity utilization [Reference list]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Morin, N., & Stevens, J. (2004, August). Estimating capacity utilization from survey data (Finance and Economics Discussion Series) [Working paper]. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

• U.S. Census Bureau. (2005, November). Instructions for the survey of plant capacity utilization during the fourth quarter 2005 [Instructional document]. U.S. Department of Commerce.

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). R and r and capacity utilization rates for various countries [Printed …

Macro And Capacity Utilization, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Palumbo, A., & Trezzini, A. (2003). Growth without normal capacity utilization [Annotated journal article]. The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 10(1), 109–135.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (n.d.). Part II: Demand-determined growth [Annotated page].

• Halevi, J., Laibman, D., & Nell, E. J. (Eds.). (1992). Beyond the steady state: A revival of growth theory [Title page]. Macmillan.

• Flaschel, P., & Skott, P. (2006). Steindlian models of growth and stagnation [Annotated excerpts from journal article]. Metroeconomica, 57(3), 303–338.

Cointegration Capacity Utilization Paper Transparencies, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

Shaikh, A. M., & Moudud, J. K. (2004, October 7). Measuring capacity utilization in OECD countries: A cointegration method [Draft manuscript]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2006, January 22). Appendix I: Procedure using OLS to derive the long-run relation between output and the capital stock [Appendix]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Dummy variables and stability tests by country [Printed list]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2005, June 8). Our capacity utilization model [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2005, May 2). Logic of ARDL method [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2005, April). EViews estimations: Eqardl00, eqardl01, …

Capital Stocks Spreadsheets Calculations And Simulations, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Capital Stock Spreadsheets: Simulations and Calculations, by A. Shaikh (2006, October). Unpublished manuscript.
• Fixed Business Capital in the United States, 1925–65, by Bureau of Economic Analysis (1967, February). Survey of Current Business, 47(2), 20–24. U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
• Impact of Redefinition (i.e., Adjustment) of Prices on K, by A. Shaikh (2006, September 4). Unpublished manuscript.
• Rolling Base Year Measures of the Average Depreciation Rate, by A. Shaikh (2006, October 17). Unpublished manuscript.
• A Guide to the Use of Chain Aggregated NIPA Data, by K. Whelan (2000, p. …

Wynne's Accounting, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

• Firm production, valuation of work in progress, and profits. Godley, W. (n.d.). [Typescript note with extensive handwritten annotations]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Sales, demand, ex ante budget constraints, and NIPA. Shaikh, A. (2006, November 12). [Handwritten notes with equations]. Unpublished manuscript.

• RePEc password reminder. (2005, November 13). [Email printout]. Personal communication.

Aggregate Capital Stock Measures, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Aggregate capital stock measures [Folder cover with handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Wasshausen, D., & Shaikh, A. (2007, January 3). Response and numerical example [Email correspondence]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2006, November 26). The measurement of capital [Draft manuscript with handwritten edits]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2006, December 23–24). Kstock accum rules numerical example [Excel spreadsheet printouts]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2006, December 23). Aggregate rules in my general numerical example [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2006, October 18). Numerical example of PIM bias [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript. …

Capital Stock Typed Text And Notes, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Capital Stock: Typed Texts and Notes, by A. Shaikh (n.d.). Unpublished manuscript.
• Price Index Examples, by A. Shaikh (2006, August 4). Unpublished manuscript.
• Traditional and Quality-Adjusted Price Indexes for Consumer Goods, by A. Shaikh (2006, August 5). Unpublished manuscript.
• Quality Adjustment for Capital Goods, Using Relative Profits, by A. Shaikh (2006, August 4). Unpublished manuscript.
• Aggregation and Adding Up, by A. Shaikh (2006, October 25). Unpublished manuscript.
• Nominal and Real Chain Aggregates, by A. Shaikh (2006, September 28). Unpublished manuscript.
• Chain Index Notes, by A. Shaikh (2000). Unpublished manuscript.
• Formulas …

Retirements Rate + Gross Stock, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Retirements rate and gross stock [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2006, August 1). The measurement of capital [Draft manuscript excerpt with handwritten annotations]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2006, September 8). Price indices and capital measurement [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2006, August 30). The measurement of capital: Measuring capital in current prices [Draft manuscript]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A., & Powers, S. (2006, July). Capital discards article [Email correspondence]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2006, October 23). The measurement of capital: Service lives and PIM capital stock estimates …

Loose Notes On Inflation, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2005, December 9). Classical and Keynesian theories of firm output [Unpublished manuscript]. Department of Economics, New School for Social Research.
• Shaikh, A. (2005, April 27). Inflation theory with classical growth [Unpublished manuscript]. Department of Economics, New School for Social Research.
• Shaikh, A. (2006, February 9). IFS annual banking stats US: Data documentation and definitions [Technical documentation]. Department of Economics, New School for Social Research.
• Shaikh, A. (2001, August 31). Inflation dynamics and the thruput ratio [Unpublished manuscript]. Department of Economics, New School for Social Research.
• Shaikh, A. (1996, March 5). Inflation, excess demand and new …

Current Stock And Gross Stocks, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• BEA Sectoral Output and Capital Stocks, by A. Shaikh (2002, October). Unpublished manuscript.
• KBEA 1993 All, by A. Shaikh (2006, November 24). Unpublished manuscript.
• Fixed Reproducible Tangible Wealth in the United States, 1925–89, by Bureau of Economic Analysis (1993, January). U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration.
• Kiel Capital Stock Data and Price Structures, by A. Shaikh (2002, June). Unpublished manuscript.
• New Estimates of Government Net Capital Stocks for 22 OECD Countries 1960–2001, by C. Kamps (2004). IMF Working Paper 04/67, International Monetary Fund.
• BEA 1993 Investment Data (Current and Constant …

China's Changing Economic Structures And Its Implications For Regional Patterns Of Trade Production And Integration, Kim Song Tan, Hoe Ee Khor

Research Collection School Of Economics

There is tremendous momentum for economic and financial integration in East Asia today. Partly inspired by the formation of the European Union and partly as a response to the 1997/98 Asia financial crisis, many East Asian countries are showing greater commitment to regional economic cooperation. A number of bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) have either been concluded or are being negotiated.1 At a less formal level, the ASEAN+3 grouping has brought the whole region together in regular consultations over trade, investment, as well as monetary and exchange rate policy matters.

Bond Yield Compression In The Countries Converging To The Euro, Lucjan T. Orlowski, Kirsten Lommatzsch

WCBT Faculty Publications

We demonstrate that bond yield compression is under way in the countries converging to the euro and that German yields are significant drivers of local currency yields. Based on the evidence from Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, we conclude that these new ...Member States of the European Union are ready to adopt the euro without risking a disruptive shock to their financial stability. This message transpires from investigating the daily volatility dynamics of local bond yields as a function of German yields, conditional on changes in local term spreads, exchange rates and adjustments to central bank reference rates. Similar …

The Effects Of Local And Global Risk Factors On Industry Stock Returns: Across Country Analysis, Mahdy Farag Elhossiny

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

This dissertation studies the local and global sources of risk and industries stock returns across national equity markets. We examine several local and global economic risk factors and ask whether and to what extent these risk factors can explain the variation in the industries' stock returns of five countries, namely Canada, Germany, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. Specifically, the main objective of this dissertation is to find answers for three main questions: First, whether and to what extent do returns on local industries respond to changes in local macroeconomic risk factors? Second, whether and to what extent do returns …

Post-Consolidation Challenges., Biodun Adedipe

Bullion

This paper tend to look at the huge complexity of a consolidation programme of the kind embarked upon by the CBN demands caution, constant reappraisal of strategies and actions, and full attention to the identified and emerging challenges. The paper is structured into three parts, dealing with the benefits of a properly conceived and effectively implemented consolidation programme, which has several components. beyond the benefits, the challenges that the banking industry stakeholders (especially the Central Bank of Nigeria) will face when the "dust settles". The final part offers some advice on what the CBN and other stakeholders should do in …

Export-Led Growth In Bangladesh: A Time Series Analysis, Hiranya K. Nath, Khawaja Mamun

WCBT Faculty Publications

This article examines time series evidence to investigate the link between exports and economic growth in Bangladesh. Using quarterly data for a period from 1976 to 2003 the article finds that industrial production and exports are cointegrated. The results of an error correction model (ECM) suggest that there is a long-run unidirectional causality from exports to growth in Bangladesh.

Sustainable External Debt Levels: Estimates For Selected Asian Countries, Roberto S. Mariano, Delano Villanueva

Research Collection School Of Economics

High ratios of external debt to GDP in selected Asian countries have contributed to the initiation, propagation, and severity of the financial and economic crises in recent years, reflecting runaway fiscal deficits and excessive foreign borrowing by the private sector. Applying the formal framework proposed by Villanueva (2003) to a selected group of Asian countries, the research estimates the external debt thresholds beyond which further debt accumulation will have negative effects on growth and will become unsustainable. The framework is an extension of the standard neoclassical growth model that incorporates global capital markets. ‘Sustainability’ is measured in terms of the …

Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast As Monetary Policy Framework For Adopting The Euro, Lucjan T. Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

This study proposes relative inflation forecast targeting as an operational framework of monetary policy for adopting the euro by the EU new Member States. This strategy assumes containing differentials between the domestic and the eurozone inflation forecasts as an operational target. A model prescribing the RIFT framework is presented along with a set of appropriate policy indicator variables and instrument rules. The proposed framework advances the strategy based on relatively strict inflation targeting that is currently pursued by some NMS. Several ARCHclass tests in various functional forms are employed for providing preliminary empirical evidence on convergence of inflation differentials relative …

Harrod Graphs, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Figure 1: Effects of a fall in the savings rate (s) on the path of output [Graph].

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Figure 2: “Modest” government spending raises the growth rate of output [Graph].

• Shaikh, A. (2005, November 30). Economic policy in a growth context: 5. Extensions to growth [Typed course notes]. Includes sections on the Keynesian time path and the Harrodian warranted growth path.

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Figure 3: “Excessive” government spending lowers the rate of growth of output [Graph].

• Shaikh, A. (2005, November 30). Economic policy in a growth …