Economics Commons^™

An Empirical Evaluation Of Neural Process Meta-Learners For Financial Forecasting, Kevin G. Patel

Master's Theses

Challenges of financial forecasting, such as a dearth of independent samples and non- stationary underlying process, limit the relevance of conventional machine learning towards financial forecasting. Meta-learning approaches alleviate some of these is- sues by allowing the model to generalize across unrelated or loosely related tasks with few observations per task. The neural process family achieves this by con- ditioning forecasts based on a supplied context set at test time. Despite promise, meta-learning approaches remain underutilized in finance. To our knowledge, ours is the first application of neural processes to realized volatility (RV) forecasting and financial forecasting in general.

We …

Disagreement In Market Index Options, Guilherme Salome, George Tauchen, Jia Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

We generate new evidence on disagreement among traders in the S&P 500 options market from high-frequency intraday price and volume data. Inference on disagreement is based on a model where investors observe public information but agree to disagree on its interpretation; disagreement among investors is captured by the volume–volatility elasticity. For options, there are two natural variables related to disagreement: moneyness and tenor, which we relate to disagreement about the distribution of the market index at different quantiles and times. The estimated volume–volatility elasticity equals unity for options near the money and close to expiration, which is consistent with the …

Economic Thought: A Biblical Perspective, Williams Kwasi Peprah, Lucile Sabas, Carmelita J. Troy, Quentin Sahly, Delynne Shepard

Adventist Human-Subject Researchers Association

The research contributes to the ongoing debate of capitalism or socialism as a Christian's economic thought. Following Jesus Christ's exemplary life, the research concludes that Jesus Christ is variously portrayed as a social reformer, revolutionary socialist and compassionate capitalist. Therefore, Christians must have the same economic thought.

Globalizing Investments: Enhancing Retail Investor Portfolios Through Cross-Asset International Diversification, Charlotte T. Kline

University Honors Theses

Diversification is frequently reiterated, but for the standard retail investor, the what, how, and why often slide between the cracks. Diversifying internationally appears even more seldom discussed. A wealth of research has been integrated throughout this paper to focus on the what, how, and why of foreign diversification, all from a retail investor's perspective. This synthesis provides a comprehensive background followed by a discussion of a variety of asset classes available for diversification and biases and factors that lead to these gaps in diversification. The findings were divided into two categories: possible asset classes favorable to international diversification and causes …

How’S It Going With The Cptpp?, Christine Mcdaniel

Yeutter Institute International Trade Policy Review

There is no doubt that the United States is losing out on market access. But one of the original goals of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was for a rules-based trading regime in the Pacific, namely rules not written by China. Thanks to Australia and Japan that seems to be happening even with the U.S. no longer at the helm.

The Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership or the awkwardly nicknamed CPTPP is a Pacific trading bloc that consists of 11 countries, spanning the Pacific Rim, and includes Malaysia and Chile. The member countries represent 13% of world GDP. Once the UK …

Bitcoin Price Dynamics: A Multiple Regression Analysis Of Market Variables, Zachary S. Biedscheid

2023 Symposium

Bitcoin, a decentralized digital currency (property), has gained significant attention recently as a potential alternative to traditional financial systems. This research project aims to explore the market variables of Bitcoin by conducting a multiple regression analysis. The literature review highlights market dynamics and the impact of Bitcoin in economics and finance, specifically in banking and monetary systems. It explores Bitcoin's decentralized nature and limited supply as a more secure and stable form of money, contrasting it with the flaws and inefficiencies of centralized banking systems. The dataset provides information on the Bitcoin market from July 23, 2010, to April 16, …

Stock Splits And Corporate Peer Effects, Albert J. Saad

Theses and Dissertations

We find that a company’s decision to execute a stock split is affected by the number of stock splits carried out by its peers. Through the use of a broad peer group construction methodology, we also reveal the presence of asymmetric effects with regard to companies of different market capitalization size. In the periods of 1983–1996 and 1997–2009 we find that firms are more likely to split their stock if more of their peers have recently done so. However, in the period of 2010–2019 we see that the opposite is true. These results provide further evidence on social learning from …

Fafsa Completion: Considerations For An Extension-Led Statewide Nudge Campaign, Portia L. Johnson, Kacee Ross, Emily Hines

Journal of Extension

Eight U.S. states have enacted legislation that mandates high school seniors to act on the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) before graduation. At least 10 other states are considering implementing similar FAFSA requirements. While proponents of the law believe it will affect postsecondary education and the workforce positively, dissenters argue that the policy is an unfunded mandate that taxes students and parents without offering adequate resources. This article synthesizes existing literature related to policy-related nudge campaigns to provide an Extension-led, cost-effective strategy to achieve the FAFSA mandate’s goal and improve citizens’ FAFSA completion behavior.

Lobbying – A Financial Perspective, Sean Byrne

Theses and Dissertations

U.S. based bank holding companies (BHCs) exert influence at every step in the legislative process where financial regulatory reforms are enacted into law, such as the Dodd-Frank Act, to promulgation of regulations. In Chapter II, we maintain that BHCs, upon facing salient regulation, lobby regulators to have their opinions heard with the goal of favorable regulatory change and to increase non-traditional revenues. We undertook a novel collection of political and financial data from 2003 to 2018, matching 180 pairs of parsed proposed and final regulations. BHCs that participated in commenting on proposed rules are highly successful at having their views …

Perceptions Of Student Loan Debt: A Phenomenological Study Exploring Black Undergraduate Students' Experiences., Pilar Prather

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The rising cost of higher education concerns many families in the United States, especially those from historically underrepresented backgrounds. The purpose of this study is to explore the phenomenon of Black students' perception of their student loan debt and how their financial knowledge influences their decisions at a public institution. This qualitative research provides space to empower individuals to share their stories through semi-structured interviews to get an account of their experiences. Grounded in Yosso's (2005) Community Cultural Wealth Theory, the study seeks to capture the unique ways Black students make financial decisions. The dissertation is divided into five chapters: …

An Inquiry Concerning Japanese Yen Interest Rate Swap Yields, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun

WCBT Working Papers

This paper econometrically models Japanese yen (JPY)–denominated interest rate swap yields. It examines whether the short-term interest rate exerts an influence on the long-term JPY swap yield after controlling for several key macroeconomic variables, such as core inflation, the growth of industrial production, the percentage change in the equity price index, and the percentage change in the exchange rate. It also tests whether there are structural breaks in the dynamics of Japanese swap yields and related variables. The estimated econometric models show that the short-term interest rate exerts an important influence on the long-term swap yield in some periods but …

Predicting High-Cap Tech Stock Polarity: A Combined Approach Using Support Vector Machines And Bidirectional Encoders From Transformers, Ian L. Grisham

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The abundance, accessibility, and scale of data have engendered an era where machine learning can quickly and accurately solve complex problems, identify complicated patterns, and uncover intricate trends. One research area where many have applied these techniques is the stock market. Yet, financial domains are influenced by many factors and are notoriously difficult to predict due to their volatile and multivariate behavior. However, the literature indicates that public sentiment data may exhibit significant predictive qualities and improve a model’s ability to predict intricate trends. In this study, momentum SVM classification accuracy was compared between datasets that did and did not …

Cbdc: Context, Challenges, And Conditions For A Successful Adoption, Charlie Nhuc Hiang Lay

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Central bank digital currencies (CBDC) are the digital version of physical notes and coins. They are the latest milestone in the evolution of money over the centuries due to technological advancements. This digitalisation of physical money primarily serves as a medium of exchange that has a central bank anchor. There are two versions of CBDC, wholesale and retail. This thesis focuses on retail CBDC, which targets the general public and small daily transactions. It discusses the issues and the plausible implementation of a retail CBDC. A CBDC will preserve monetary sovereignty, foster financial stability, and counter private network effects, i.e., …

Consumer Reaction To The Use Of Artificial Intelligence Chatbot On Distribution Of General Insurance In Singapore, Lai Hing Tan

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

As technology rapidly permeates all aspects of our lives, it is not unusual to question and even challenge the rationale on why certain industries are slower to adapt to the new digital age. Insurance is a business that is under scrutiny given its traditional ways of selling and legacy challenges. Why is technology investment in insurance companies lagging others? One emerging technological disruption is artificial intelligence (AI). It is the science of designing and building intelligent systems that can complete tasks traditionally performed by humans. AI is expected to fundamentally transform today’s marketplace, for businesses and consumers alike. However, because …

No More Empty Stadiums: A Meta Analysis Of Mega Sporting Events And Their Economic Impact, Tayte O. Gleason

Honors Thesis

Mega sporting events have faced increased scrutiny in recent decades for their negative economic impacts, externalities, and environmental effects. As multimillion dollar stadiums lay abandoned and future host city bids are withdrawn as public opinion on mega sporting events worsens with time, economists, governing bodies, and sports fans worry about the future locations of these massive sports festivals. In my thesis, I will conduct a meta analysis of articles measuring the various impacts and effects of hosting a mega sporting event. I will begin by performing an extensive literature review of the various factors contributing to a mega sporting event’s …

U.S. Implementation Of Total Loss Absorbing Capacity And Long Term Debt Standards, Sarabeth Mcclain

Senior Honors Projects

In the fallout of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, governments were tasked in aiding banks that were bloated by troubled assets and deeply integrated into financial markets, effectively described as “Too Big To Fail.” Moving forward following the crisis, governments were obligated to rebuild a system that would prevent the need for financial industry bailouts at such a massive scale and scope. One specific regulation introduced at the international level posed a set of regulations requiring that banks hold specific amounts of equity and debt instruments earmarked to absorb future financial losses, allowing for either continued function or limited resolution …

Two Essays On Industry Tournament Incentives, Sarah Almisher

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

A large body of literature has developed on the disparities in compensation among chief executive officers. Financial media has highlighted the fact that CEOs in the United States receive excessive pay and that the gap among executive compensation is soaring. High compensation creates incentives for CEOs to take higher risk in firm policies to land a more attractive position managing another firm and attaining higher pay which is considered the ultimate prize (Kale, Reis, and Venkateswaran 2009; Coles, Daniel, and Naveen 2006). This creates a tournament in the managerial labor market. We define this tournament as the pay differential between …

Debt And The Medicare Eligibility Discontinuity: Disparate Effects Across Households, Olivia Falck

Honors Theses

Public health insurance programs like Medicare and Medicaid have been shown to help reduce household debt caused by healthcare costs. The impact of health insurance literacy makes the relationship between public health programs and debt more ambiguous. The increasing complexity of Medicare raises the question of whether cost savings associated with enrollment might be mitigated by the complexity of choosing the ideal plan for those with low health insurance literacy. In this study, I utilize the Medicare eligibility cutoff at age 65 to implement a regression discontinuity design that analyzes the impact of Medicare eligibility on household debt and out …

Vietnam’S Gdp: Re-Assessing Growth Rate And Identifying An Alternative Indicator, My Linh D. Nguyen

Honors Theses

Since the economic reform known as Doi Moi (Renovation) in 1986, Vietnam has changed from one of the world’s poorest to a middle-income country in one generation (USAID, 2022). The country has consistently registered high and stable economic growth since the reform, averaging 6.3% from 1985 to 2021 (World Bank, 2022). High growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) is good news, but it has also raised questions that go both ways. On one side, there is much speculation that the government of Vietnam has manipulated economic statistics, compared to the case of China and India. As quoted in Kinh …

Esg Reporting And Its Effect On Financial Performance Of Oil, Gas, And Utility Companies In The United States, Logan Lam

Honors Theses

According to the Harvard Business Review article ESG Investing Isn’t Designed to Save the Plant (Pucker and King 2022), the term ESG investments – which stands for environmental, social, and governance investing – often confuses investors because it is unregulated. Additionally, the author continued to claim that the data is outdated and mostly unaudited. Even if data on these investments is available to investors, it can still be challenging for them to make decisions regarding ESG. Trusting compatibility and accuracy can be difficult considering that companies can choose how to produce or calculate their own ESG data. Another claim that …

Climate Change And Corporate Cash Holdings: Global Evidence, Siamak Javadi, Abdullah Al Masum, Mohsen Aram, Ramesh P. Rao

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Using data from 41 countries, we provide novel empirical evidence that firms’ cash holdings are positively associated with their climate change exposure. This evidence is robust to different model specifications and survives a battery of tests to ease concerns related to spurious correlation and omitted variable bias. Using the release of the Stern Review as an exogenous shock to climate change awareness, we show that this association becomes significantly stronger after the release of the Review and particularly so for firms with higher exposure to regulatory and transition risk dimensions of climate change as well as financially constrained firms. Overall, …

Bridging The Chasm Between Fundamental, Momentum, And Quantitative Investing, Allen Hoskins, Jeff Reed, Robert Slater

SMU Data Science Review

A chasm exists between the active public equity investment management industry's fundamental, momentum, and quantitative styles. In this study, the researchers explore ways to bridge this gap by leveraging domain knowledge, fundamental analysis, momentum, crowdsourcing, and data science methods. This research also seeks to test the developed tools and strategies during the volatile time period of 2020 and 2021.

The Occupy Movement: More Than Just A Movement, Logan O'Brien

Sociology 323 Racial and Ethnic Relations

A look into the Occupy Movement from the early 2000s.

Macroeconomic Determinants Of Stock Market Development In Sample African Economies, Ehab Ayoub

Theses and Dissertations

This research paper studies the relationship between macroeconomic determinants as independent variables and different measures of stock market development as dependent variables across selected emerging economies in Africa for the period of 2002 to 2021, with a quarterly frequency using time series analysis. The independent variables used are Core Inflation, Deposit Rate, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), FX Rate against USD, Domestic Credit, Gross Domestic Product (Real GDP), Exports, Imports, External Debt, and Foreign Reserves. We use these variables as our main determinants of measuring economic growth. With regards to stock market development, we use four proxy measures as our benchmark, …

Optimal Interventions In Networks During A Pandemic, Roland Pongou, Guy Tchuente, Jean-Baptiste Tondji

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We develop a model of optimal lockdown policy for a social planner who balances population health with short-term wealth accumulation. The unique solution depends on tolerable infection incidence and social network structure. We then use unique data on nursing home networks in the US to calibrate the model and quantify state-level preference for prioritizing health over wealth. We also empirically validate simulation results derived from comparative statics analyses. Our findings suggest that policies that tolerate more virus spread (laissez-faire) increase state GDP growth and COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes. The detrimental effects of laissez-faire policies are more potent for nursing …

Calculating Efficiency For Spatial Autoregressive Stochastic Frontier Model, Levent Kutlu

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

When there are efficiency spillovers, we can use a spatial autoregressive stochastic frontier model to estimate total (spillover-corrected) efficiencies.Glass et al. (2016) provide a formula for total efficiency in this context, which is an approximation. We provide the exact formula for the spillover-corrected efficiency. Moreover, we derive total, direct, and indirect marginal effects of environmental variables on spillover-corrected efficiency.

Liquidity Constraints, Consumption, And Debt Repayment: Evidence From Macroprudential Policy In Turkey, Sumit Agarwal, Muris Hadzic, Changcheng Song, Yildirim Yildiray

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using account-level credit card data from a large Turkish bank, we study the impact of a unique credit card policy that increases minimum payment on consumption and debt repayment. We show that the policy reduces credit card spending and debt, boosts existing debt repayment, and reduces credit card delinquency. The credit card debt of affected consumers falls on average by 50% two years into the policy’s implementation. An increase in minimum payment has a stronger effect than does a decrease of a similar magnitude. We build a benchmark life cycle model with soft liquidity constraint to explain the reduction in …

دور السياسة المالية في تحقيق التوازن الداخلي في العراق بعد 2003, علي جابر عبد الحسين, حوراء حاكم حسن

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

واجه الاقتصاد العراقي العديد من المشاكل والاختلالات الاقتصادية على المستوى الداخلي ، الأمر الذي أدى إلى تعثر جهود التنمية وتراجع مؤشرات الأداء الاقتصادي,ولذلك سعت الدولة بعد2003 الى تحقيق مستوى من التوازن الاقتصادي وذلك بفضل الصدمات التي تحصل في اسعار النفط الخام. باستعمال آلية محددة وان عدم التوازن داخليا نتيجة تزايد الإنفاق العام غير المبرر اقتصاديا من حيث طبيعة القنوات التي يتوزع فيها الإنفاق العام ونتيجة نهج الذي يعتمد الية السوق بما ينطوي عمى تغيير دور الدولة الاقتصادي من دور انمائي الى دور تصحيحي تكون السياسة المالية والسياسة النقدية جزأ مهما في هذا الدور عبر إلغاء الدعم الحكومي أزله والقيود عن …

العلاقة الترابطية بين ادارة المخاطر و ادارة الجودة الشاملة في أتخاذ القررات الادارية: بحث تحليلي لاراء عينة من العاملين في بنك الجنوب الاسلامي, حيدر محمد جاسم

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

دف هذا البحث بشكل رئيسي الى تسليط الضوء على أهمية أدارة المخاطر وادارة الجودة الشاملة في اتخاذ القرارات الادارية التنظيمية في ظل المنافسة الشديدة بين المصارف الاسلامية العراقية ، كذلك بيان العلاقة بين تطبيق الطرق الوقائية في ظل ادارة الجودة الشاملة لتحقيق رضا الزبون من خلال تقديم الخدمة للزبون بأقل المخاطر وأعلى جودة في ظل توفر الخبرات والمهارات من قبل العاملين في المصارف الاسلامية العراقية . ولتحقيق أهداف الدراسة قام الباحثون باستخدام المنهج الوصفي التحليلي من خلال إعداد قائمة الاستقصاء (استمارة الاستبيان) معدة إعدادا علميا، حيث وزعت هذه الاستمارة على العاملين (محاسبين , مدققين , مدراء الاقسام , معاونين المدراء …

العوامل المؤثرة في النية في تبني انترنت الأشياء Iot في قطاع التعليم العالي: دراسة استطلاعية لعينة من التدريسين في جامعة الموصل, محمد عاصم محمد علي

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

يمثل انترنت الاشياء أحد اهم التطورات المهمة في تقانات المعلومات والاتصالات في العصر الحالي، والذي وفر امكانيات كبيرة لمختلف قطاعات، وان استخدام انترنت الاشياء في قطاع التعليم العالي سيوفر فرص جديدة يمكن ان تؤدي الي تسهيل وتحسين العلمية التعليمية. الهدف الرئيسي لهذه الدراسة هو التحقق من العوامل التي تؤثر على نية الملاك التدريسي لتبني انترنت الأشياء. اقترحت الدراسة نموذج بحث افتراضي يتكون من عوامل تم تبنيها من نظرية القبول التقني TAMو ونظرية تكنولوجي- تنظيمي- بيئي TOE . وتستند الدراسة على المنهج الوصفي التحليلي، وتم استخدام الاستبيان لجمع البيانات من عينة البحث المتكونة من 84 من تدريسي عدة كليات في جامعة …