Economics Commons^™

Financial Bubble Implosion And Reverse Regression, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi

Research Collection School Of Economics

Expansion and collapse are two key features of a financial asset bubble. Bubble expansionmay be modeled using a mildly explosive process. Bubble implosion may take several differentforms depending on the nature of the collapse and therefore requires some flexibility in modeling.This paper first strengthens the theoretical foundation of the real time bubble monitoringstrategy proposed in Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015a,b, PSY) by developing analytics and studyingthe performance characteristics of the testing algorithm under alternative forms of bubbleimplosion which capture various return paths to market normalcy. Second, we propose a newreverse sample use of the PSY procedure for detecting crises and …

Local Investors’ Preferences And Capital Structure, Binay K. Adhikari, David C. Cicero, Johan Sulaeman

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We provide evidence that publicly listed firms respond to capital supply conditions shaped by local investing preferences. The local supply of credit is higher and more stable in areas where demographics suggest that local investors prefer safer portfolios. We find that firms headquartered in these areas use more debt financing. The demographics-leverage relation is more pronounced for non-investment-grade and unrated firms that cannot easily tap public markets (about two-thirds of U.S. public companies). Analyses of firms’ financing activities around exogenous shocks to credit supplies – including interstate banking deregulation and the 2008-2009 financial crisis – support the capital supply effect. …

Household Debt, Expected Economic Conditions, And Income Inequality, Edmond Berisha, John Meszaros

Department of Economics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

The high level of debt among households outside the top end of the income distribution has led many economists to assert that household debt has been an important component of the increase in income inequality in the United States. In addition, the yield spread provides information about the overall condition of the economy and may also be tied into the distribution of income. The paper's results show that increases in the yield spread and household debt correspond with increases in top income shares, resulting in increases in income inequality. However, as household debt and income inequality increase, the yield spread …

Microfinance, Msmes And The Macro Economy: Evidence From India, Monica Casabona

Honors College Theses

Much of prior literature on the relationship between microfinance and the macro-economy has focused on the effect of the latter in determining the success of microfinance institutions (MFIs). However, the microfinance industry has been underserved in studies evaluating microfinance as a legitimate contributor toward macro-economic growth. Researching this connection would provide a clearer direction for policymakers to support microfinance, and the institutions that foster such activities. This paper investigates the hypothesis that microfinance is not only important to the people at the bottom of the socio-economic pyramid, but for the overall health of a national economy. We explore different mechanisms …

Examining Moral Hazard In The Healthcare Insurance Market, Samuel Ashby

Honors College Theses

This study aims to examine the effect of insurance coverage on medical expenditure in the United States. The data was gathered from the Household Component Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and is a cross-sectional data set with a sample size of approximately 1500 observations. The study also distinguishes between public and private insurance coverage to compare the potential moral hazard in the two separate markets. The results of this study suggest that insurance status, specifically public, has a strong positive effect on healthcare expenditure. This result, combined with a negative relationship between household income and healthcare expenditure, suggests that the source …

Institutional Development And Foreign Banks In Chile, Brian Du, Alejandro Serrano, Andre Vianna

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper analyzes the effects of foreign banks on developing countries’ bank performance. We study this relationship from a different perspective by focusing on Chile, an emerging market with strong institutions. The results from dynamic panel regressions on hand-collected financial statement data from 2005 to 2014 indicate that foreign banks improve banking sector competitiveness, reduce the volatility of returns, and increase commercial and consumption loans. The overall evidence suggests that, in the presence of solid institutions, foreign banks improve the banking sector in developing countries. Therefore, public policies on foreign banks should be more effective when accompanied by advances in …

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 21, Number 3, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Esmeralda Muñiz

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Three Essays On Empirical Asset Pricing, Ming Zeng

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This thesis consists of three chapters. In Chapter1, I show that returns to currency carry and momentum strategies are compensations for the risk of US monetary policy uncertainty (MPU), with risk exposures explaining 96% of their cross-sectional return variations. The findings are consistent with an intermediary-based exchange rate model. Higher MPU triggers position unwinding by the intermediary, which decreases there turns of currency with high-interest rate or appreciation, while that with low-interest rate or depreciation earns positive returns. Different responses stem from the long and short behavior of the intermediary. The explanatory power of US MPU risk is robust and …

Do Hedge Funds Exploit Rare Disaster Concerns?, George P. Gao, Pengjie Gao, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We find hedge funds that have higher return covariation with a disaster concern index, which we develop through out-of-the-money puts on various economic sector indices, earn significantly higher returns in the cross-section. We provide evidence that these funds’ managers are more skilled at exploiting the market’s ex ante rare disaster concerns (SEDs), which may not be associated with disaster risk. In particular, high-SED funds, on average, outperform low-SED funds by 0.96% per month, but have less exposure to disaster risk. They continue to deliver superior future performance when SEDs are estimated using the disaster concern index purged of disaster risk …

Real Estate Risk, Corporate Investment And Financing Choice, Xiaoying Deng, Seow Eng Ong, Meijun Qian

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper empirically examines how real estate risk impacts corporate investment and financing decisions. Using a panel of United States firms from 1985 to 2013, we document that real estate risk is negatively associated with firms’ long-term investments and long-term external financing in equity and debt. The results are robust to different risk measurements and in particular salient during the financial crisis period when the endogeneity between risk and investment is less of a concern. The effect on firm leverage, however, depends on risk measures. Overall, in contrast to previously documented positive effects of the real estate value, real estate …

The Real Effects Of Exchange Traded Funds, Frank Weikai Li, Xuewen Liu, Chengzhu Sun

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper investigates the effects of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the real efficiency of the underlying securities. We document strong evidence that being held by ETFs increases the sensitivity of a firm's investment to its own stock price. This is consistent with the model prediction on the managerial learning channel. Higher ownership by ETFs increases the firm's stock price informativeness about systematic shocks but may decrease the informativeness about firm-specific shocks; however, the firm manager cares most and wants to learn from the stock price mainly about systematic shocks in making investment decisions as he already has precise private information …

فحص وتقويم نظام الرقابة الداخلية على وفق اطار(Coso ) في التعليم الجامعي الاهلي بحث تطبيقي في كلية شط العرب الجامعة الاهلية, اشرف عبد ربة احمد

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

تهدف هذه الدراسة الى مدى امكانية فحص وتقييم نظام الرقابة الداخلية على وفق اطارcoso في التعليم الجامعي الاهلي / كلية شط العرب الجامعة الاهلية , الذي هو جزء لا يتجزأ من كل نظام تستخدمه الكلية لتنظيم وتوجيه عملياتها , وليس نظاماً مستقلاً بحد ذاته، وهو مجموعة من الأعمال والأنشطة التي تحدث بشكل مستمر داخلها، بحيث يضع أساسه وينفذه ويراقبه ويطوره الأفراد على كافة المستويات بالكلية، كما يجب أن يراعى في تصميمة عنصري العائد والتكلفة . لا يشمل نظام الرقابة الداخلية على الأمور والإجراءات المتعلقة بوظائف النظام المحاسبي والتقارير المالية فقط ، بل يمتد ليشمل الجوانب الإدارية والتنظيمية ، بداية من …

مدى استخدام بطاقة الأداء المتوازن في تحسين جودة المعلومات المحاسبية دراسة تطبيقية في معمل اسمن الكوفة, شيماء نهرو جبل

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

يهدف هذا البحث الى بيان امكانية استخدام بطاقة الاداء المتوازن كأداة تساعد الشركة بتوفير معلومات محاسبية ذات جودة ودقة عالية للأطراف ذات العلاقة , وتضمن البحث فرضيتين رئيسيتين, الاولى لعلاقات الارتباط والثانية لعلاقات التأثير بين متغيرات البحث, تم اختيار عينة من السادة أفراد الادارة العليا ورؤساء الاقسام والشعب في معمل اسمنت الكوفة والبالغ عددهم (150) فرد, باعتماد الاستبانة التي اشتملت (36) فقرة, وتم استخراج النتائج باستخدام البرنامج الاحصائي (SPSS), وقد أشارت النتائج الى وجود علاقة واثر ايجابي لأبعاد بطاقة الاداء المتوازن في جودة المعلومات المحاسبية , وقدمت مجموعة من التوصيات كان أهمها التركيز على بعد التعلم والنمو عن طريق تشجيع …

أثر بعض مؤشرات سوق العراق للأوراق المالية في تشجيع الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر (رؤية تحليلية), حيدر جواد كاظم

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

تهدف الدراسة إلى قياس مدى تأثيرا مؤشرات سوق العراق للأوراق المالية في الاستثمار الاجنبي المباشر , بناءً على الفرضية التي تفيد بوجود علاقة ارتباط وتأثير إيجابية ومعنوية بين مؤشرات سوق العراق للأوراق المالية والاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر, وقد بيّنت هذه الدراسة أثر العلاقة باستخدام الأسلوب الوصفي لعرض مفاهيم المتغيرات, بالإضافة إلى الأسلوب القياسي باستخدام معادلة الانحدار الخطي حيث تم تقديرها بطريقة المربعات الصغرى العادية, وتوصلت نتائج الاختبار القياسي إلى وجود علاقة طردية معنوية بين الاستثمار الاجنبي وبعض مؤشرات سوق العراق الأوراق المالية وهي مؤشرات (عدد الأسهم المتداولة، حجم التداول، القيمة السوقية ,مؤشر الأسعار، عدد الشركات المتداولة)، مقابل عدم معنوية النماذج المتبقية.

توظيف مؤشرات تمويل النمو المستدام في الحد من الهشاشة المالية دراسة مقارنة بين شركات التامين العراقية والاماراتية, مهند حميد ياسر العطوي

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

يهدف البحث الى التعرف على دور مؤشرات تمويل النمو المستدام (معدل النمو الفعلي ومعدل النمو المستدام) في التقليل من الهشاشة المالية في شركات التامين العراقية والاماراتية, حددت مشكلة البحث في عدد من التساؤلات تمحورت حول التعرف على مدى تأثير معدل النمو الفعلي والمستدام في الهشاشة المالية, وتم وضع مخطط فرضي يوضح علاقات التأثير بين مؤشرات البحث وعبر عنها بفرضيتين تأثير وثلاث فرضيات تبحث عن الفروق بين الشركات المبحوثة, وتم جمع المعلومات من خلال المواقع الإلكترونية الرسمية لسوق العراق ودبي للأوراق المالية, وتم استخدام اسلوب الانحدار البسيط في ايجاد علاقة التأثير بين متغيرات البحث والتحليل التميزي للتعرف على معنوية الفروق, باستخدام …

دراسة تحليلية للميزانية المالية للمصرف الزراعي التعاوني في العراق للفترة من 2003-2016, رزاق ذياب شعيبث

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

تهدف الدراسة الى بيان تحليل الميزانية المالية العامة للمصرف الزراعي ومعرفة مدى إمكانية تأثير المصروفات الكلية والإيرادات الكلية على الميزانية للمدة من 2010 الى 2016 بالاعتماد على الميزانية المالية العامة وقد حدّدت هذه المتغيرات بيان الأهمية النسبية من وجهة النظر المصرفية ، وتم استخدام البرنامج الاحصائي spss لبيان علاقة أثر المصروفات الكلية والإيرادات الكلية على الميزانية المالية لغرض تقدير أنموذج الانحدار المتعدد ، ومن خلال ما أظهره التحليل تبين وجود اثر معنوي من خلال النتائج ، وتوصي الدراسة ضرورة التأكيد على ان تكون هناك نسبة فوائد معينة على القروض الممنوحة لتغطية جزء من الإيرادات الخاصة بالميزانية المالية العامة ، ومتابعة …

نظم المعلومات المحاسبية الالكترونية ودورها في تحسين النجاح المنضمي دراسة تطبيقية في معمل سمنت الكوفة, فرج غني عبود

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

يتركز موضوع البحث في دراسة دور نظم المعلومات المحاسبية الالكترونية بأبعاده (الملائمة , الموثوقية , القابلية للمقارنة, الثبات) في تحسين النجاح المنضمي بأبعادها( الرؤية، الاستراتيجية, النشاط العملياتي, اختيار الافراد, ثقافة الشركة, القيادة والادارة, التطوير الشخصي, تطوير الشركة, التقييم والمراجعة), في معمل سمنت الكوفة, وتضمن البحث فرضيتين رئيسيتين, الاولى لعلاقات الارتباط والثانية لعلاقات التأثير بين متغيرات البحث, تم اختيار عينة من السادة العاملين في الشركة عينة البحث والبالغ عددهم (175) فرداً, باعتماد الاستبانة التي اشتملت (59) فقرة, وتم استخراج النتائج باستخدام البرنامج الاحصائي (SPSS), تم التوصل الى النتائج التي كان أهمها وجود علاقة بين نظم المعلومات المحاسبية الالكترونية و النجاح المنضمي, …

الموجودات غير العاملة ودورها في عدم الاستقرار المصرفي دراسة تحليلية لعينة من المصارف العراقية الخاصة, حيدر جاسم عبيد الجبوري

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

تعاملت الدراسة مع الموجودات غير العاملة كمتغير تفسيري , ومع الاستقرار المصرفي كمتغير استجابي من خلال مؤشرين هما (العائد على الموجودات , تغطية السيولة) . وقد هدفت الدراسة اختبار علاقات التأثير بين الموجودات غير العاملة والاستقرار المصرفي, وتكون مجتمع الدراسة من القطاع المصرفي التجاري الخاص في العراق, إما عينة الدراسة فقد كانت عينة عمديه , إذ تم اختيار عينة من ( 8 ) مصارف, لسلسلة زمنية امتدت ما بين(2007- 2015) وتضمنت الدراسة فرضيتين للاختبار علاقات التأثير بين متغيراتها. تم تحليل بيانات الدراسة باستخدام المعادلات المالية وبعض الأساليب الإحصائية بالاعتماد على مجموعة من البرامجيات الجاهزة كبرنامج (SPSS.V.20) وقد أظهرت النتائج تطابق …

العلاقة بين قنوات رأس المال الاجتماعي وفاعلية جماعات العمل : الدور الوسيط للصراع دراسة تحليلية لآراء عينة من اعضاء الهيئة التدريسية في كليات جامعه القادسية, عامر علي حسين العطوي

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

يهدف البحث إلى اختبار العلاقة بين قنوات رأس المال الاجتماعي وفاعلية جماعات العمل من خلال الدور الوسيط للصراع لعينة من أعضاء الهيئة التدريسية في كليات جامعة القادسية البالغ عددهم (642)فرد موزعين على (75) قسم علمي . يضم متغير قنوات رأس المال الاجتماعي للجماعات نوعين من القنوات هما قنوات الاغلاق وقنوات التجسير اما متغير فاعلية جماعات العمل فقد تناول بعدين هما أداء الجماعة واستمرار الجماعة وبالنسبة للصراع فقد تبوء مكانته كمتغير وسيط من خلال نوعيه: صراع العلاقات وصراع المهمة. وتدور ابرز فرضيات الدراسة حول فكرة أساسية مفادها ان الجماعة التي تمتلك تشكيله متوازنة من قنوات رأس المال الاجتماعي (التجسير والاغلاق) سينخفض …

Can Investors Benefit From Momentum Trading? Evidence From An Emerging Market, Sana Tauseef, Mohammad Nishat

Business Review

It is claimed that momentum trading strategies generate positive returns. This paper investigates the profitability of momentum investment strategies and their determinants for stocks listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange using data from the period 2001 to 2015. The results reveal that momentum returns for Pakistani stocks are as high as the returns reported for developed markets. Moreover, the returns earned over the sub-period 2001 to 2007 are mostly positive, whereas those earned over the sub-period 2009 to 2015 are mostly negative. Momentum returns in Pakistan, however, are not caused by temporary over or under reaction of investors in the …

Ideological Positions Of Hispanic College Students In The Rio Grande Valley: Using A Two-Dimensional Model To Account For Domestic Policy Preference, William Greene, Mi-Son Kim

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

While a good amount of research has been conducted regarding the voting behavior of Hispanics in the United States, there is a dearth of analysis of the underlying ideologies of members of this ethnic group, especially in contrast to their partisan self-identifications. This is especially true of one particular sub-category: Hispanics along the Rio Grande Valley of south Texas, of whom a majority consistently vote Democrat, but whose personal values would seem to make them a natural constituency for issue positions associated with the Republican Party (Garrett, 2010). The goal of this study is to analyze the ideological positions of …

Romania -- Systematic Country Diagnostic: Background Note-Agriculture (English), Edinaldo Tebaldi, Anatol Gobjila

Economics Faculty Journal Articles

Agriculture plays a significant socio-economic role in Romania and its transformation to a modern, vibrant, and market-oriented sector is central to fighting poverty, promoting social inclusion, and reducing the urban/rural development divide. Most of Romania's poor live in rural areas and earn their living from agriculture or agriculture-related activities. In 2016, eight out of ten people who were at risk of poverty or social exclusion lived either in rural areas or in towns and suburbs that were predominately rural. Using microdata from the 2013 Household Budget Survey (HBS), this report finds that individuals living in rural areas are 16.5 percent …

Optimal Stackelberg Strategies For Financing A Supply Chain Through Online Peer-To-Peer Lending, Guang-Xin Gao, Zhi-Ping Fan, Xin Fang, Yun Fong Lim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In recent years, supply chain finance (SCF) through online peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms has gained its popularity. We study an SCF system with a manufacturer selling a product to a retailer that faces uncertain demand over a single period. We assume that either the retailer or the manufacturer faces a capital constraint and must borrow capital through an online P2P lending platform. The platform determines a service rate for the loan, the manufacturer sets a wholesale price for the product, and the retailer chooses its order quantity for the product. We identify optimal Stackelberg strategies of the participants in the …

Us Airline Stock Market Performance And Change In Investor Behavior Over The Great Recession Of 2008, Rebecca Wood, Jayendra Gokhale

Publications

We study the relationship of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil returns and the stock market returns with the US airline stocks before, during and after the 2008 financial crisis. We confirm the positive relationship of the airline stock returns with the overall market and the negative relationship with WTI. However, we find that the crisis led to a structural change in this relationship. Our results differ for low-cost airlines which absorb the oil price shock better as compared to legacy airlines. We also find that there is a difference in the relationship between the airline stock returns and WTI …

The Impact Of Brexit Related Events On European And Us Exchange Rates, George E. Lavallin Mr.

Honors College Theses

On June 23^rd, 2016, the British public voted to leave the European-Union in a highly contested referendum. The purpose of this thesis is to gain an understanding of whether ‘Brexit’ associated events and announcements had an impact on the US Dollar/Euro, British Pound/Euro and US Dollar/British Pound exchange rates. 69 Brexit associated events or announcements were identified for the study from 1^st January 2013 to 31^st December 2017. Using a univariate analysis (two-sample t-test in combination with a Levene-test of equal variance) as well as a multivariate analysis (OLS regression), the study examines exchange rate changes …

Essays In Business Cycles And Asset Pricing, Ruiyang Hu

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation investigates several key macroeconomic and asset pricing topics, with a particular interest in exploring the underlying driving forces of business cycles and asset market fluctuations. The dissertation includes three chapters, with the first two chapters solo-authored by me and the third chapter co-authored with Dr. Carlos Zarazaga.

The first chapter develops a dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium model, and exploits Bayesian inference methods to investigate the major sources of fluctuations in aggregate variables and asset prices. Taking into account the possibility that the growth of total factor productivity, labor-augmenting technology and investment-specific technology might consist of permanent and …

Transfer Mispricing In Africa: Contextual Issues, Edna Kabala, Manenga Ndulo

Southern African Journal of Policy and Development

Transfer pricing is a significant tax issue and lies at the core of international trade and globalisation. This brief raises contextual issues and challenges surrounding the experience of transfer mispricing in Africa. The brief comes at a time when African countries have consistently exhibited high real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates in the past two decades, and increased FDI inflows and technological upgrades have aided their high participation in global trade. Despite the profitability of MNEs operations in Africa, the investing firms are paying less in terms of tax. This has created a problem for African countries to raise …

Are Prize-Linked Savings Accounts The Solution To Arkansas' Savings Problem?, Mckenzie Wages

Accounting Undergraduate Honors Theses

This research finds that access to prize-linked savings could improve the financial security of Arkansans. Prize-linked savings (PLS) accounts are nontraditional savings products that offer depositors the chance to win cash prizes instead of a typical interest rate return. Given the low median incomes, high liquid asset poverty rates, and high levels of underbanked and undereducated individuals in Arkansas, there is a need for an innovative savings solution like PLS in the state. PLS accounts capitalize on individuals’ propensity for lottery-like risk-taking to inspire the productive behavior of personal saving. A wide range of individuals, especially those who could stand …

Essays On Banking And Corporate Finance, Alev Isil Yildirim

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of two chapters.

Chapter 1: The Effect of Relationship Banking on Firm Efficiency

This paper analyzes the impact of relationship bank oversight on firm operational efficiency and default risk. I find that a new loan from a relationship bank improves the technical efficiency of inefficient firms that have an elevated probability of default. Moreover, borrowing firms with elevated default risk exposure experience reductions in their probabilities of default in the years following new relationship bank loans, benefiting both banks and borrowers. Thus, the benefits of relationship bank monitoring are most apparent the higher the ex ante default …

Cryptocurrencies As An Alternative To Fiat Monetary Systems, David A. Georgeson

Applied Economics Theses

The recent popularity of cryptocurrencies is largely associated with a particular application referred to as Bitcoin. Cryptocurrency has a mix of properties that make it difficult to examine. These properties consist of being infinitely divisible, durable, transferable, fungible and can be controlled to be artificially scarce. Further, cryptocurrencies can act as a means of payment, a medium of exchange, a store of value, and a unit of account. This thesis will analyze the technical features underlying cryptocurrencies and find out whether or not they can function as an alternative to fiat money. Since Bitcoin is the most commonly understood application …