Economics Commons^™

Essays On Mortgage Portfolio Diversification, Timothy Patrick Dombrowski

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Portfolios of mortgage loans played an important role in the Great Recession and continue to compose a material part of bank assets. The distribution of mortgage portfolio returns, and consequently, the risk of these portfolios, is quite distinct even from other fixed income asset classes. This dissertation contains three essays, each aiming to analyze a specific component of risk in mortgage portfolios and role of geographical diversification in reducing this risk.

The first essay investigates how cross-sectional dependence in the underlying properties flows through to the loan returns, and thus, the risk of the portfolio. In addition to demonstrating this …

Artificial Intelligence & Personal Finance: Legal And Ethical Implications, Aaron Klein

Brookings Scholar Lecture Series

As part of the Brookings Scholar Lecture Series, Brookings Mountain West presents a lecture titled "Artificial Intelligence and Personal Finance: Legal and Ethical Implications" by Brookings fellow in economic studies, Aaron Klein. The rise of big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence herald great promise in making our financial system safer, fairer, and more inclusive. However, the legacy of the use of credit as a tool to enforce and promote discrimination means these same tools can recreate and reinforce biases in ways that challenge basic ethics and the law. This lecture explores how data is used to make financial decisions, …

The (Unfilled) Fintech Potential, Aluma Zernik

Notre Dame Journal on Emerging Technologies

Part I explores the idea that technology has the utopian potential to significantly improve the way individuals make financial decisions. Part II discusses some existing market failures, while presenting the potential of technological innovation in resolving such failures. Part III presents the realized potential of such innovative products, analyzing the design of credit card comparison websites, financial management tools, and mobile wallets. I will demonstrate the significant benefits of such products, and yet the limited realization of the potential advantages of such services. Part IV presents several explanations for why such potential is not being fully realized. These explanations may …

Portfolio Capital Inflows And Banking Crisis In Emerging Market And Developing Economies (Mdes): Bank-Level Evidence From Nigeria, Tijjani Mohammed Jume

Bullion

The objective of the paper is to assess the effects of foreign portfolio capital surge on the banking sector in Nigeria from 2005 - 2018. Using a simple trend analysing a static general equilibrium framework, the paper reveals that portfolio capital inflows, in the wake of monetary policy independence in Nigeria, led to portfolio capital surge which resulted to credit boom and speculative transactions in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) leading to assets price bubble. When the bubble burst during the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2007, and thereafter in 2014, portfolio capital inflows reversed and banking stocks prices declined …

Bank Loan Loss Provisioning During Election Years In Nigeria, Peterson Kitakogelu Ozili

Bullion

The paper investigates the behavior of loan loss provisions during election years in Nigeria. Election events create uncertainties in the business environment. Election and post-election events may amplify credit risks for banks, requiring banks to keep higher loan loss provisions. Using country-level data, it was revealed that the election year did not have a significant effect on the level of loan loss provisions in the Nigerian banking sector. However, the banking sector had high provisions when it is undercapitalized during election years.

Measuring The Risk In Risk Measures: The Case Of The Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market, K. Katata

Economic and Financial Review

As part of its mandate, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) carried out a series of foreign exchange policy decisions from 2014 to 2016. This paper, therefore, evaluated model risk of two key risk measures, expected shortfall (ES) and value-at-risk (VaR), due to the CBN's policy decisions using daily data for the naira exchange rates covering 2010 to 2014, as well as, 2011 to 2015 for the respective policy resolutions. The risk measures were implemented using 6 different models, as the most common techniques used by regulators and practitioners. The implementation of Basel III recommends the switchover from VaR to …

Investing With Cryptocurrencies: A Liquidity Constrained Investment Approach, Simon Trimborn, Mingyang Li, Wolfgang Karl Hardle

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

Cryptocurrencies have left the dark side of the finance universe and become an object of study for asset and portfolio management. Since they have low liquidity compared to traditional assets, one needs to take into account liquidity issues when adding them to a portfolio. We propose a Liquidity Bounded Risk-return Optimization (LIBRO) approach, which is a combination of risk-return portfolio optimization under liquidity constraints. Cryptocurrencies are included in portfolios formed with stocks of the S&P 100, US Bonds, and commodities. We illustrate the importance of the liquidity constraints in an in-sample and out-of-sample study. LIBRO improves the weight optimization in …

A Behavioral Signaling Explanation For Stock Splits: Evidence From China, Chenyu Cui, Frank Weikai Li, Jiaren Pang, Deren Xie

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We propose a behavioral signaling explanation for the positive announcement effects of stock splits. There are two key behavioral ingredients in our model. First, (retail) investors have misconceptions about stock splits that make them view stock splits as good news. Second, investors are loss-averse and will be particularly disappointed if a splitting firm’s ex-post performance falls short of expectation. In a separating equilibrium, only managers with favorable private information use stock splits to signal. Using a comprehensive sample of stock splits in China over the period of 1998 to 2017, we find supporting evidence: (1) stock splits elicit positive announcement …

Why Commonality Persists?, Raja Velu, Zhaoque Zhou, Chyng Wen Tee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Studies on commonality in returns, order flows and liquidity find that the first principal component is closely aligned with the market factor. With the increasing presence of high-frequency trading, commonality in returns, order flows, and liquidity can potentially arise from the commonality in the interpretation of real-time signals. In this paper, we go beyond the first factor and show that the other dominant principal components consistently reflects investors' herding behavior, demonstrating the multi-dimensional aspect of commonality. Instead of relating the asset returns to order flows, we take both as endogenous, and provide empirical evidence showing that returns commonality is driven …

Commentary: Where Does The Talent Pools Of Smes Come From?, T. Mandy Tham

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In a commentary, SMU Assistant Professor of Finance Mandy Tham explored how ‘family members’ is defined could affect the size of talent pool for SMEs and family businesses, and suggested some criteria for the selection of family members to be nurtured for the SMEs and family businesses.

Time-Series Momentum: Is It There?, Dashan Huang, Jiangyuan Li, Liyao Wang, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Time-series momentum (TSM) refers to the predictability of the past 12-month return on the next one-month return, and is the focus of several recent influential studies. This paper shows, however, that asset-by-asset time-series regressions reveal little evidence of TSM, both in- and out-of-sample. While the t-statistic in a pooled regression appears large, it is not statistically reliable as it is less than the critical values of parametric and non-parametric bootstraps. From an investment perspective, the TSM strategy is profitable, but its performance is virtually the same as that of a similar strategy that is based on historical sample mean and …

Review Of The Causes Of 1907 Panic And Aftermath, Maria H. Ramjerdi

Department of Economics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

The Panic of 1907 is often known as the Panic that initiated the development of the Federal Reserve System (Bordo, 1985). The Panic of 1907 was "The beginning of the end of unregulated capital markets and banking system without the lender of the last resort in the United States." (Fohlin, Gehrig and Haas, 2015, page 2). Numerous causes lead to the Panic of 1907 including: shadow banking, the San Francisco earthquake and fire, stock price manipulation, seasonal agriculture fluctuations, an outflow of gold, and higher interest rates. This paper reviews the primary literature on these causes, and how they led …

Inflation Targeting And Exchange Rate Volatility In Emerging Markets, Rene Cabral, Francisco G. Carneiro, Andre V. Mollick

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

The paper investigates the exchange rate on the reaction function of 24 emerging markets economies’ (EMEs) central banks from 2000Q1 to 2015Q2. This is done by first employing fixed-effects (FE) ordinary least squares and then system generalized methods of the moments techniques. Under FE, the exchange rate is important in the reaction function of EMEs. Allowing for the endogeneity of inflation, output gap, and the exchange rate, the exchange rate remains positive and statistically significant (but quantitatively less) across inflation targeting countries. When the sample is partitioned into targeting and non-targeting countries, the exchange rate remains relevant in the reaction …

Essays On Anomalies In International Equity Markets, Xiao Cheng

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters related to empirical asset pricing in the international stock market.

Chapter 1: "Loss of International Sales and Stock Performance" Using international firm-level data from 1990-2015, I show that when global firms' total international sales drop to zero, this conveys an important signal about future firm operations. An equal-weighted portfolio that sells stocks of firms that completely lost international sales and buys stocks of global firms earns up to 86 basis points per month (over 10% per year). This return predictability cannot be explained by the Fama-French international three- or five-factor models. Further examination suggests …

Essays On The Application Of The Machine Learning Methods In Finance And Policy Evaluation, Olga Guska

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

In the age when "Big Data" is becoming almost a household word, such abundance of information in different forms and representations can be of a great help for one's decision-making let it be a trader betting on a stock, or a policy-maker assessing the potential impact of proposed regulation. Whereas traditional economic research is primarily based on the use of numerical data continuous or discrete, there is a great deal of useful information that can be extracted from text data. Such information can power novel identification strategies or help perceive solutions from a different angle, but observed volumes of such …

Lessons Learned: Ray Dalio, Andrew Metrick, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Kaleb B. Nygaard

Journal of Financial Crises

Insights from a discussion with Ray Dalio, Founder, Chairman, and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Bridgewater Associates, one of the largest hedge funds in the world. Topics range from monetary policy to communications strategy when responding to a financial crisis.

Basel Iii G: Shadow Banking And Project Finance, Christian M. Mcnamara, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

The Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR), a liquidity standard introduced by Basel III, seeks to promote a better match between the liquidity of a bank’s assets and the manner in which the bank funds those assets. The NSFR requires banks to maintain a minimum amount of funding deemed “stable” by the Basel framework based on the liquidity of the banks’ assets and activities over a one-year timeframe. One of the areas seen as most affected by this development may be bank participation in project finance for infrastructure development. Since the global demand for infrastructure development remains robust, the shadow banking …

Basel Iii D: Swiss Finish To Basel Iii, Christian M. Mcnamara, Natalia Tente, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

After the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) introduced the Basel III framework in 2010, individual countries confronted the question of how best to implement the framework given their unique circumstances. Switzerland, with a banking industry that is both heavily concentrated and very large relative to the size of its overall economy, faced a special challenge. It ultimately adopted what is sometimes referred to as the “Swiss Finish” to Basel III—enhanced requirements applicable to Switzerland’s “too-big-to-fail” banks Credit Suisse and UBS that go beyond the base requirements established by the BCBS. Yet the prominent role played by relatively new contingent …

Basel Iii B: Basel Iii Overview, Christian M. Mcnamara, Michael Wedow, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

In the wake of the financial crisis of 2007-09, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) faced the critical task of diagnosing what went wrong and then updating regulatory standards aimed at preventing it from occurring again. In seeking to strengthen the microprudential regulation associated with the earlier Basel Accords while also adding a macroprudential overlay, Basel III consists of proposals in three main areas intended to address 1) capital reform, 2) liquidity standards, and 3) systemic risk and interconnectedness. This case considers the causes of the 2007-09 financial crisis and what they suggest about weaknesses in the Basel regime …

Jpmorgan Chase London Whale Z: Background & Overview, Arwin G. Zeissler, Rosalind Bennett, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

In December 2011, the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) instructed the bank’s Chief Investment Office to reduce the size of its Synthetic Credit Portfolio (SCP) during 2012, so that JPM could decrease its Risk-Weighted Assets as the bank prepared to adopt the impending Basel III bank capital regulations. However, the SCP traders were also told to minimize the trading costs incurred to reduce Risk-Weighted Assets, while still maintaining the opportunity to profit from unexpected corporate bankruptcies. In an attempt to balance these competing objectives, head SCP derivatives trader Bruno Iksil suggested in January 2012 …

Incorporating Macroprudential Financial Regulation Into Monetary Policy, Aaron Klein

Journal of Financial Crises

This paper proposes two insights into financial regulation and monetary policy. The first enhances understanding the relationship between them, building on the automobile metaphor that describes monetary policy: when to accelerate or brake for curves miles ahead. Enhancing the metaphor, financial markets are the transmission. In a financial crisis, markets cease to function, equivalent to a transmission shifting into neutral. This explains both monetary policy’s diminished effectiveness in stimulating the economy and why the financial crisis shock to real economic output greatly exceeded central bank forecasts.

The second insight is that both excess leverage and fundamental mispricing of asset values …

Designing Student Projects In Finance: Structure, Technology, And Assessment, Jack W. Trifts, Laura Kohl

Finance Department Faculty Journal Articles

Student projects are a typical part of finance courses, but little has been written about their design. This article describes a five-year process of developing a web-based, semester-long, project in financial statement analysis and provides a road map for faculty members seeking to enhance learning. A key for any instructor is how to manage the trade off the benefits of individual projects and significant formative feedback with the time demands involved.

The Influence Of Internal Audit Competency On Financial Reporting Quality And Enterprise Risk Management, Melissa E. Renschler

2020

The internal audit function (IAF) is critically important to financial reporting quality and enterprise risk management (ERM). Following both the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 and the financial crisis of 2008, there have been improvements to other monitoring functions, such as the audit committee, management, and the external auditor, but regulation over the IAF is nearly absent. Further, our understanding of how IAF competency is developed and how IAF competency impacts both financial reporting quality and ERM outcomes is limited. My dissertation consists of three archival studies that investigate IAF competency using LinkedIn data. Taken together, these three studies contribute to …

Hedge Fund Investment In Initial Coin Offerings (Icos), Adam B. Wing

Honors Undergraduate Theses

Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) came into worldwide attention in 2018, when over $11.6 billion flowed through them. The CME Group launched Bitcoin futures contracts in December 2017, giving large funds their first regulated exposure to digital assets. As digital assets move towards the mainstream of finance, institutional investors have followed. This study comparatively analyzes Hedge Fund investment in digital assets against that of other institutional investment firm types (Private Equity and Venture Capital) by analyzing their crypto holdings and rebuilding an equally weighted portfolio for each fund. Under these conditions, the study succeeds in finding significant differences between hedge fund …

Municipal Fiscal Distress In Pennsylvania: Assessing The Municipalities Financial Recovery Act 47 Of 1987, Terry Tracy

West Chester University Doctoral Projects

In the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, the Department of Community and Economic Development administers a Municipal Financial Recovery program to improve outcomes in fiscally and socio-economically distressed cities. The program operates under the auspices of the Pennsylvania Municipal Recovery Act 47 of 1987.

It is designed to provide state and municipal governments the resources necessary to combat fiscal distress and economic decline, where municipalities lack the political or financial wherewithal to do so autonomously. Those resources include access to grant funding, special latitude over tax policy and fee structures not otherwise permitted by Pennsylvania’s Constitution, and developing a five-year fiscal recovery …

Working Capital Management And Economic Policy Uncertainty, Jacob Kplorla Tandoh

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

In the aftermath of the financial crisis, Ernst and Young (2009) working capital report note that the leading 2,000 corporations in the US and Europe can extract an up to US$1 trillion if they manage their working capital efficiently. While the existing literature documents the effects of working capital management on firm performance, there is a dearth of research between economic uncertainty and working capital management. We attempt to fill this gap by examining the effect of the economic policy uncertainty on firms’ ability to manage their working capital. For this study, with over 80,000 US firm-year observation over the …

Parents’ Perceived Financial Behaviors Impact On College Students’ Financial Behaviors, Naomi Saxon

Masters Theses

The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between traditional-aged college students and their parents perceived financial behaviors. It utilized Dew and Xiao’s Financial Management Behavior Scale (FMBS) (2011). Past research indicated that there is a positive impact between a parent’s involvement in students’ academic endeavors, however little research explored the relationship between their impact on a young adults’ financial behaviors. Students’ were asked a series of questions from the FMBS rating their actual financial behaviors. These results were compared to their perception of their parent’s financial behaviors in the following categories: money management, credit management, savings management, …

Asset Pricing Under Randomized Solvable Diffusions, Hiromichi Kato

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

By employing a randomization procedure on the geometric Brownian motion (GBM) model, we construct our new pricing models with stochastic volatility exhibiting symmetric smiles in the log-forward moneyness, and admitting simple closed-form analytical expressions for European-style option prices. We assume that there are no infinitesimal correlations between the underlying asset prices and their volatility, and the integrated squared volatility processes are random variables with well-known probability density functions. Under some regularity conditions, closed-form expressions are obtained by taking the expectation of option prices under diffusion models over the integrated squared volatility process, which relate to the Bayesian framework in the …

Saudi Stock Market Reaction To Different Major Events, Ahmed Aljarba

CGU Theses & Dissertations

This study implements event study analyses to investigate participants’ reactions to nine different, important events impacting the Saudi Arabian stock market. It analyzes the dynamics of security prices in the Saudi Arabian stock market during the first five days surrounding the event dates. I tested the significance of abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns of all the 20 sectors during the (-5,+5) days event window. I found that the market participants react both positively and negatively to different events examined in the study, which was reflected in both the positive and negative cumulative average abnormal returns. The results could be …

Another Look At The Relationship Between Portfolio Returns And Market Multiples, Marlena Akhbari, M. Fall Aininan, James E. Larsen

Finance and Financial Services Faculty Publication

No abstract provided.