Economics Commons^™

Extreme Tails Behavior In Asian Currency Markets, Sumaira Zia, Arshad Hassan, Ayesha Zia

Business Review

This study examines extreme tail behavior in Asian currency markets for the period of 2005-2018. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is estimated through Extreme Value Theory (EVT) approach to forecast losses incurred in a day in Asian currencies. Initially EVT approach is used to estimate extreme losses on the left tail of the distribution. Then, the VaR estimation of this approach is back tested through traditional and advance back testing methods to ascertain the accuracy of the models used. Results indicate that the estimation of GPD static model is relevant for extreme risk forecasting in EVT approach at both 95% and 99% confidence …

Quality Minus Junk Factor: A Study On Asset Pricing Dynamics In The Equity Market Of Pakistan, Shahrbano ., Sumayya Chughtai, Tahira Awan

Business Review

This study examines the role of quality minus junk factor in explaining cross-sectional differences in stock returns for the equity market of Pakistan. A new factor quality minus junk has been added to the existing Fama & French three factor model (1993) as a fourth factor to check whether it is priced as a risk factor. The study also compares the explanatory power of the newly proposed model with the existing single-factor Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and Fama & French three factor model (1993). A high quality data set of 70 non-financial firms listed on the PSX is employed …

Lessons Learned: Ron Borzekowski, Mercedes Cardona, Rosalind Z. Wiggins

Journal of Financial Crises

Ron Borzekowski was a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Board when he was detailed to join the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) as a senior researcher and later became deputy to research director Greg Feldberg. The 10-member bipartisan commission, charged with investigating and determining the causes of the crisis, held more than 19 hearings, and interviewed more than 700 people from September 2009 to Jan. 2011. It issued a 662-page report explaining why the crisis came about and the roles of financial institutions, government, and the public. This Lessons Learned is based on an interview with Mr.Borzekowski.

Lessons Learned: Greg Feldberg, Sandra Ward, Rosalind Z. Wiggins

Journal of Financial Crises

Greg Feldberg was a senior supervisory financial analyst at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve experienced in regulating large banks when he was recruited to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) where he worked from 2010-11, becoming its Director of Research. The FCIC was a bipartisan commission charged with investigating the causes of the global financial crisis of 2007-09. Feldberg shared thoughts about some of the challenges faced by the commission and why its report is important. This "Lessons Learned" is based on an interview with Mr. Feldberg.

Lessons Learned: Christopher Seefer, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Christopher Seefer was recruited to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) to serve as the commission’s director of investigations. The 10-member bipartisan commission wascharged with investigating and determining the cause of the global financial crisis of 2007-09 (GFC). The commission held over 19 hearings and interviewed more than 700 people from September 2010 to January 2011 and produced a662-page report that attempted to explain why the crisis came about and the roles of government and private enterprises in the crisis.This “Lessons Learned” is based on an interview with Mr. Seefer.

Lessons Learned: Gary Cohen, Sandra Ward

Journal of Financial Crises

Gary Cohen joined the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) in December 2009 to serve as its general counsel at the request of commission chairman Phil Angelides. The FCIC was a 10-member bipartisan group convened by Congress to investigate the causes of the global financial crisis of 2007-09. Cohen had a wide-ranging and ad hoc position that included advising commissioners and staffers on administrative matters and protocols. In addition, he assisted in document requests and compelling witnesses to testify and, on occasion, in conducting interviews and public hearings. He played an instrumental role in editing the commission’s final report. This “Lessons …

Lessons Learned: Wendy Edelberg, Sandra Ward

Journal of Financial Crises

Wendy Edelberg served initially as Director of Research at the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) before eventually being named Executive Director. Established in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2007-09, the FCIC was a bipartisan panel of six Democrats and four Republicans charged with determining the causes of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Edelberg built the organization from the ground up, hiring staff, instituting operating procedures, establishing guidelines, managing communications, and reporting to the commissioners. This "Lesson Learned" is based on an interview with Ms. Edelberg.

Lessons Learned: Phil Angelides, Sandra Ward

Journal of Financial Crises

Phil Angelides chaired the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) established by Congress in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007-09 with the purpose of understanding what precipitated the crisis so that any future crises might be averted. The 10-member bipartisan commission, known as the “Angelides Commission” after its chair, convened in September 2010. Meeting in a span of 15 months and holding 19 public hearings and interviewing more than 700 people, the commission submitted its findings in January 2011. The commission concluded that the crisis was avoidable, the “result of human actions, inactions, and misjudgments.” The report included …

Monetization Of Fiscal Deficits And Covid-19: A Primer, Aidan Lawson, Greg Feldberg

Journal of Financial Crises

Monetization—also known as “money-financed fiscal programs” or “money-printing”—occurs when a government finances itself by issuing currency or other non-interest-bearing liabilities, such as bank reserves. It poses real risks—potentially excessive inflation and encroachment on central-bank independence—and some paint it as a relic of a bygone era. The onset of the COVID-19 crisis, however, forced governments to spend heavily to combat the considerable economic and public health impacts. As government deficits climbed, monetization re-entered the conversation as a way to avoid the massive debt burdens that some nations may face. This paper describes how monetization works, provides key historical examples, and examines …

Financial Reporting Quality And Investment Efficiency: Evidence From Indonesian Stock Market, Iman Harymawan

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the impact of financial reporting quality on the investment efficiency of a company. The study uses 994 observations from companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in three periods from 2013Â to 2015. The findings suggest that higher financial reporting quality has a positive and significant relationship with investment efficiency. Furthermore, the tests were conducted on groups of companies experiencing underinvestment and overinvestment. It was found that higher financial reporting quality had a negative and significant relationship with companies experiencing overinvestment. The findings provide implications for investors in assessing investment management carried out by …

National Cultures And Stock Prices: Evidence From The Emerging Markets, Ahmad E. Shahin, Mostafa Saleh

Papers, Posters, and Presentations

This report in the field of behavioral finance explores the effect of national culture factors and firm specific factors on the stock prices of publicly traded firms in the 36 countries in the emerging markets. Using linear regression, we tested 13 variables (three of them were Hofstede’s indices for Individualism, Uncertainty Avoidance, and Long-term Orientation) against the stock prices. We found that in the Africa, America, and Europe regions, the cultural factors had no significant effect on stock prices. On the other hand we found that only individualistic behavior had a significant effect on stock prices in businesses in Arab …

National Cultures And Capital Structure: Evidence From The Emerging Markets, Ahmad E. Shahin, Laila El Adly, Eman Barr, Islam Fathy, Ahmed Taha

Papers, Posters, and Presentations

This paper identifies the combinations between Hofstede’s six cultural aspects and four selected firm-specific factors, which have a significant impact on the choice of capital structure, in 15,821 listed companies from 34 countries in the emerging market, for the period 2012 – 2014. Thirty seven independent variables and one dependent variable have been tested using regression analysis. It has been concluded that the combinations that have a significant impact on the choice of capital structure (leverage) in the emerging markets were [Cultural – Firm-specific]:

1. Power distance – cash flows, cost of debt
2. Individualism – cash flows, cost of debt
3. Masculinity …

The Hotelling Valuation Principle: Does User Cost And Reserve Differentials Improve Validity?, Brian K. Hicks

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The Hotelling Valuation Principal (HVP) implies that the value per unit of an in-ground exhaustible natural resource is equal to the current price less the cost of production. The assumptions required for this principle include a certain and homogenous reserve stock, unconstrained extraction, and constant costs. Extensive research has empirically investigated the HVP. This paper expands the HVP framework and relaxes the theory’s assumptions to account for reserve differentials. The results show that the original net price model is more closely aligned with developed reserve value, than total reserve value. In addition, this paper develops two- and three-factor net price …

Airbnb Release Of Latent Economic Value And Return To Equilibrium, Daniel Joseph Trujillo

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

We empirically consider Airbnb’s effect on a new variable in Short Term Rental (STR) research, second homes, employing a model pre-Airbnb diffusion (2009), and post-Airbnb diffusion (2019). In doing so we test our hypothesis that second home use will be converted to short-term rentals with the advent of Airbnb. We do so through a natural experiment examining housing stock. We create a schema to segregate tourist and non-tourist counties based on economic variables and deploy these in our research framework observing a shock to housing supply. Notably, we observe a structural change in the use of second homes resulting in …

‘The Robinhood Effect’ - Digital Technology In Global Financial Markets And Its Effects On Investor Decision Making, Ben Steib

Honors Theses

We are currently experiencing a revolution that is larger, arguably, than the industrial revolution, it’s the Internet, also known as the World Wide Web. The Internet has transformed how we live — how we talk, how we work, how we go about our daily business, and how we manage our finances on a global and individual level. In the late 1990s, an investor would search the World Wide Web and, within seconds, find 3,372 websites with the term "investment,” today, the same search for “investment” yields 1,860,000,000 results. Today, as proven with GameStop and other popular ‘meme stocks,’ social media, …

The Effects Of Imf's Lending And Conditionalities On Economic Growth: Case Of Sadc Countries, Lutete Celina Carlos

Masters Theses

I examine the impact of IMF credit use and its conditions on economic growth performance in 12 South African countries over a period of 1999-2019. The work adopts an empirical and quantitative approach to analyzing the relationship between the GDP per Capita, the use of IMF Credit, Government Final Consumption Expenditure, Net Domestic Credit and Current Account balance. These variables are the most recommended in the IMF conditionalities during the lending arrangements with SADC members. The study uses Fixed-effect approach to evaluate how the use of IMF program and the conditions imposed directly affects economic growth. A dummy variable is …

Impacts Of Zero-Commission Trading On Stock Market Liquidity, Jie Hu

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

With the elimination of commission fees of retail brokers, zero-commission trading became the new normal after October 2019. This study employs DTAQ data to calculate ten different market liquidity measures and finds that the implementation of zero-commission trading significantly improves market liquidity. This effect is also significant after related factors including trading volume, price volatility, market performance, opening effect, and closing effect are controlled. By explicitly modeling the simultaneity nature among market liquidity measures, trading volume, and price volatility, this study finds that there is a positive relationship between spread and price volatility. The implementation of zero-commission trading decreases price …

Islamic Bussiness Concept In Facing Moral Hazard Of Mudharabah Financing In Indonesia Islamic Banking (Perspective: Asymetric Information Theory), Ummu Sholihah, Nur Fatwa

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

In the contract of financing much-needed information asymmetry between the owners of capital (shahibul mall) and the manager of the capital (mudharib) in order to achieve common interests. One of the indicators that lead to moral hazard is due to asymmetric information or dissimilarity of information provided, and influential in the contract of financing. In a Mudharabah financing contract, between shahibul mall and mudharib provide information asymmetry in favor of the creation of a common interest. This study is a literature with an approach that combines the philosophical and phenomenological approach to look deeply about the …

Kerentanan Perbankan Di Indonesia: Pengukuran Dan Penyebabnya, Wisnu Wibowo, Amir Ambyah Zakaria

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

This study aims to identify banking vulnerabilities and analyze the factors that influence them. The tool used to identify bank vulnerabilities uses modification crisis and default index (C&D Index) while hypothesis testing uses logit regression. Commercial banks in Indonesia from 2008 to 2018 was taken as sample. As a result, in 2008 and 2013 were the most vulnerable conditions for banks in Indonesia. The reason most banks have been identified as vulnerable is due to decreased profits, increased liabilities in foreign currencies and increased Non Performing Loan (NPL). Logit regression test show that banking fragility is negatively related to capital, …

Stock Returns By Sector And Industries In A Year Into The Covid-19 Pandemic, Simon Alvin A. Casas

Honors Undergraduate Theses

In the COVID-19 stock market industries reacted and were affected in different ways. This paper will use Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes to look at how sectors and selected industries fared after a whole year in a pandemic. This will be accomplished by comparing 2019 stock returns to 2020 stock returns with a t-test and estimating the effect of COVID-19 positive case and death increases using a pooled OLS regression. All SIC sectors A-J were analyzed as well as 18 selected industries such as food stores, real estate, oil and gas extraction, health services, and communications. Results show a significant …

Debilitating Debts And Recapacitating Loans: How Fintech Made Markets For Unsecured Consumer Debt Using Alternative Data And Machine Learning, Michael Joshua Mccanless

Theses and Dissertations--Geography

This thesis investigates the production and management of consumer debt on digital platforms. First, this study investigates how borrowers navigate spaces of debt and indebtedness created by fintech consumer lenders. Second, this thesis analyzes the process and impact of ‘alternative’ data and machine learning on fintech credit scoring models. As consumer lending ‘moves online’, this research analyzes the increasingly important role of digital spaces in the creation and management of debt. Tracking the interfaces and algorithms used by online consumer lenders, I weave together insight from digital and financial geographies to argue that digital technologies are enabling firms to marketize …

Finance And Economic Performance Across Countries, Monika Islam Khan

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

My dissertation consists of three papers on finance and economic performance across countries. The first paper applies the gravity model of international trade to quantify the impact of the banking sector and the stock market on bilateral trade patterns. Following the study of capital structure, I evaluate the mix of external financing sources used for real investment at the macroeconomic level by differentiating between the relative roles of the banking sector and stock market development in determining trade patterns. Using aggregate bilateral trade data for 87 countries over 1976-2012, I find that stock market development has a substantial impact on …

The Effect Of Female Managers On Mutual Fund Performance During Down Markets, Madison Gates, Madison I. Gates

Scripps Senior Theses

Women in the finance industry have long been underrepresented. The mutual fund industry is no exception, with female managers in the United States falling stagnant at only 11% from 2000 to 2019. Given this low and stagnant number, this study seeks to understand if female managers impact mutual fund performance, specifically comparing down and up market periods. The data for this research was compiled from individual US mutual fund prospectus and fact sheet information in order to create a unique dataset containing the returns for every year between 2000 and 2019 as well as gender make-up, average experience, and team …

The Impact Of The Yield Curve On Bank Equity Returns: Evidence From Canada, Robert N. Killins, Peter V. Egly, Sourav Batabyal

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We examine the reaction of Canadian banks equity returns to changes in yield curve spreads. We find that Canadian banks equity returns are positively impacted by contemporaneous (and lagged) yield curve spreads. Our results also suggest that Canadian banks have become more sensitive to changes in the slope of the yield curve in the post 2007-2009 financial crisis. We also find an asymmetric impact of the slope of the yield curve on Canadian bank equity returns. For equity investors, the yield curve’s relevance varies with spreadmaturities. Our findings have important implications for the estimations of banks’ cost of capital and …

Threshold Effects Of Terms Of Trade On Latin American Growth, Andre C. Vianna, Andre V. Mollick

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper investigates nonlinear relationships between terms of trade volatility (totvol) and economic growth in 14 Latin American economies from 1997 to 2014. In the 2000s, Latin American countries experienced accelerated economic growth often attributed to commodity price booms. We split the sample into two regimes based on totvol thresholds determined by bootstrap techniques. Fixed-effects, instrumental variable and dynamic panel regressions address endogeneity in trade-growth, subject to traditional economic channels such as domestic investment, population growth, exchange rate, government size, and institutions. We find statistically significant thresholds and stronger trade-growth links during the 2000s commodity boom and in larger economies.

Are Investment Banks Helpful Or Hurtful? An Analysis Of Intraday Volatility In The Direct Listing Process As Compared To Investment Bank-Involvement In Traditional Ipos, Alexis Paff

Scripps Senior Theses

In this paper, I carry out an empirical analysis of the pricing volatility of direct listings as compared to traditional IPOs. Direct listings solve an efficiency problem in the US going-public market, in which well-funded, late-stage firms lack incentives to pursue a public listing, which would create liquidity for preexisting shareholders and allow for a more diverse body of public shareholders. Direct listings have been allowed on the New York Stock Exchange since early 2018, and four firms, Spotify, Slack, Asana, and Palantir, have gone public through this new listing mechanism. While underwriters are heavily involved in the IPO process, …

Feature Investigation For Stock Returns Prediction Using Xgboost And Deep Learning Sentiment Classification, Seungho (Samuel) Lee

CMC Senior Theses

This paper attempts to quantify predictive power of social media sentiment and financial data in stock prediction by utilizing a comprehensive set of stock-related fundamental and technical variables and social media sentiments. For conducting sentiment analysis, this study employs a pretrained finBERT model that provides three different sentiment classifications and respective softmax scores. Hence, the significance of these variables is evaluated with XGBoost regression and Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) frameworks. Through investigating feature importance, this study finds that statistical properties of sentiment variables provide a stronger predictive power than a weighted sentiment score and that it is possible to quantify …

Converged Subset Portfolios: An Extension To Subset Optimization, Coleman Cornell

CMC Senior Theses

The limited span of useful data, coupled with increasingly expansive asset universes, cripples the traditional mean-variance problem. When optimizing in these environments, the pronounced effect of estimation error yields extremely unstable portfolios when evaluated out-of-sample. As a proposed solution to the "curse of dimensionality," Gillen (2016) presents subset optimization as a technique to reduce the impact of estimation error. Instead of optimizing jointly over the entire asset universe, subset optimization na\"ively aggregates over many "subset portfolios" that each optimize over a much smaller random sample of assets. Given the inefficiencies when using naive aggregation, converged subset optimization is presented as …

Diversifying Investment Portfolios With Collectible Sneakers: Expected Returns And Benefits Of Diversification, Samuel Soo

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis seeks to identify if collectible sneakers can provide diversification benefits to an investor’s portfolio. Using data from a global collectible sneaker marketplace, StockX, I constructed an index to compare it with other traditional assets, including the S&P 500 index and 5-year US Treasury Bills. By calculating key metrics including expected returns, volatility, and correlation, I analyzed the risk-return characteristics of the collectible sneaker asset class compared to other traditional asset classes. From the data analysis I performed, I found that collectible sneakers did not outperform returns significantly compared to traditional asset classes, but had low correlations, which provides …

Gambling Autonomy: The Impact Of Latin American Central Bank Independence On Risk Aversion Within Monetary Policy Implementation, Julia Duarte Schulman

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the effect of Latin American central bank independence (CBI) on risk-averse behaviors in monetary policy. Using a fixed effects panel regression, I document how multiple forms of monetary policy are influenced by different macroeconomic variables, conflicting policy targets and central bank independence benchmarks. The results show that increasing CBI has a positive impact on risk aversion, especially in policies targeting inflation and money supply. Additionally, the results show that interest rates and reserve requirements were especially susceptible to changes in independence, while the monetary base and volume of domestic credit were less influenced. Finally, as time and …