Economics Commons^™

Trading Volume And Forecast Accuracy In Kalshi Prediction Markets, Nicholas Smole

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the accuracy of Kalshi prediction markets and how different measures of trading volume shape their calibration and predictive power. Expanding upon previous models, use nonparametric calibration curves, pseudo-likelihood regressions, and Brier-score regressions on a large panel of Kalshi contracts to compare the effects of ex-post total volume and cumulative trading volume on market accuracy. Markets are typically well-calibrated near expiration; however, at longer horizons, low-volume markets exhibit substantially more miscalibration. Holding time to expiration fixed, greater cumulative volume is associated with higher accuracy. In comparison, higher ex-post total volume is associated with lower accuracy, highlighting the importance …

All Games Have Equilibria, Arthur Paul Pedersen, M. Ali Khan, Maxwell B. Stinchcombe

Publications and Research

Research on Nash equilibrium existence for infinite games has grown into a patchwork of technical preconditions and counterexamples. This paper presents a unified program in equilibrium theory by revising the predominant model of mixed strategies based on countable additivity. A game is specified by a nonempty set of players and, for each player, a nonempty action set and a bounded von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function. Every such game is shown to admit a Nash equilibrium in finitely additive mixed strategies. In addition, the equilibrium correspondence for any such game is shown to be nonempty, compact-valued, and upper hemicontinuous, and the same …

Ceo-Employee Pay Ratio Disclosure And Dividend Policy, Rajib Chowdhury, John A. Doukas

Finance Faculty Publications

We examine whether and how the magnitude of the CEO pay ratio affects dividend policy in the context of inequality-averse investors. Our results demonstrate a positive association between the two and remain robust to endogeneity concerns. We find that the CEO pay ratios positively affect dividends irrespective of whether CEO compensation contracts motivate risk-averse or risk-taking policy choices. This non-diverse effect on dividend policy across CEOs with different pay structures contradicts previous studies and highlights the wealth effect resulting from the SEC mandate. Further analyses reveal a negative effect of the pay ratio on cash holdings and investment inefficiency.

Review Of James K. Galbraith And Jing Chen, Entropy Economics: The Living Basis Of Value And Production (The University Of Chicago Press, 2025), Panos Tsoukalis

Emancipations: A Journal of Critical Social Analysis

No abstract provided.

Oxytocin Varies Across The Life Course In A Sex-Specific Way In A Human Subsistence Population, Abigail E. Colby, Dominik C. Jud, Valerie Baettig, Jordan S. Martin, Camila Scaff, Michael D. Gurven, Benjamin C. Trumble, Bret A. Beheim, Paul L. Hooper, Daniel K. Cummings, Hillard Kaplan, Jonathan Stieglitz, Arnulfo Cary Ista, Adrian V. Jaeggi

ESI Publications

Oxytocin, a hormone linked to reproduction and health, may mediate life-history trade-offs across the human life course. Yet, how oxytocin naturally varies with age remains poorly understood. Here, working with the Tsimane, forager-horticulturalists of lowland Bolivia, we collected the largest sample of oxytocin measurements to date (n = 1,242 samples, n = 405 individuals, age = 2 to 84 y, 51% female), and i) examined how oxytocin varies throughout the life course in females and males, and ii) investigated potential drivers of age- and sex-specific variation. Our sample provides rare insight into the relationship between oxytocin and age in a …

Working Paper No. 104, An Gorta Mór: The ‘Great Hunger’ And Irish Immigrant Labor In 19th Century America, Amanda Bergeson

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry seeks to establish that portions of the population of Ireland -- responding to what has been referred to in their Celtic language as An Gorta Mór, or in the English language as the ‘Great Hunger -- took to emigrating en masse and therewith contributed bigly to the expansion of America’s labor supply. Bolsterd by Irish immigrants, this expanding mid-nineteenth century labor force provided for an abundance of workers needed for a broadly based industrialization, that would also lead to large-scale urbanization as well as a host of changes in this nation’s social fabric. Of note is that …

Working Paper No. 105, John Locke And The American Experiment, Riley Sharps

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry seeks to establish that ideas advanced by the Englishman John Locke, regarding private property, natural rights, as well as a social contract for relations between authorities and governed, influenced the American experiment at its founding. Locke’s novel understanding regarding private property greatly influenced leaders railing against British dominance. His ideas were picked up by founding figures such as John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, as well as James Madison, and Thomas Paine. Through their leadership, in particular, Locke’s ideas were carried forward and served as the inspiration behind key concepts appearing in this new nation’s founding documents. First appearing in …

Working Paper No. 106, The Rise And Fall Of Whaling In Early America, Miranda Rehaume

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry seeks to establish that whaling activities -- and later a whaling industry -- would play important roles in the economic development of the colonies that would, with time, form into the United States of America. Drawing from historical accounts, this inquiry explores how whaling emerged as a cornerstone of the colonial, New England economy as well as the early American transatlantic trade. It shall be argued that the industry’s prosperity was driven by capital investments that included the development of specialized ships and equipment, driven by the colonists’ determination to make the whaling industry prosper. However, repeated disruptions …

Genetically Modified Crops In Africa: Evidence On Adoption, Economic Benefits, Environmental Effects, And Constraints, Aloyce Hepelwa, Innocensia John

Tanzanian Economic Review

Africa faces deep food insecurity with over 300 million undernourished people driven by, low agricultural productivity, and climate shocks. To enhance food production and sustainable development, there is potential seen in genetically modified (GM) crops. To explore the potential of GM crops, this paper examines their production, adoption, economic and environmental impacts, adoption barriers, and policy implications in Africa and globally. This is done using a structured narrative review of peer-reviewed literature, reports, and policy documents (2014–2024) sourced from different databases complemented by stakeholder consultations. The findings show that GM has expanded considerably worldwide driven by high productivity, reduced pesticide …

Contests With Ambiguous Prizes, Cary Deck, Aidan Hathaway, Emma Kate Henry, Tigran Melkonyan, Samuel Redinger

ESI Working Papers

This paper examines behavior in contests where the prize value is ambiguous. We develop a theoretical model of bidding in a Tullock contest with an ambiguous prize where contestants account for the ambiguity attitude of their rival. Ambiguity affects optimal behavior via two countervailing channels - a direct effect arising from contestants’ ambiguity about the value of the prize and an indirect effect corresponding to the effect of ambiguity on the opponent’s behavior. Using a controlled laboratory experiment, we elicit individual risk and ambiguity attitudes and compare predicted and observed behavior in contests with an ambiguous prize, a risky prize …

The Bandwagon Model, Dean A. Williams

All Dissertations

Professional sports teams are in the entertainment market where owners of teams invest in players with the hopes of converting their talents into wins, and in turn, added revenues for their team. To gain an understanding of the incentives that shape these team talent investment decisions, prior economists have created theoretical models of professional sports leagues that give predictions regarding the cost to acquire talent, and the winning percentage of teams from different market sizes. These models are then used to show how team talent investment decisions change once professional sports leagues implement policies such as first-year player drafts, salary …

Strategic Interactions And Gender Cues: Evidence From Social Preference Games, Hernán Bejarano, Matias Busso, Juan Francisco Santos

ESI Working Papers

This paper studies trust, reciprocity, and bargaining using a large-scale online experiment conducted in six Latin American countries. Participants played trust and ultimatum games under randomly assigned conditions in which the gender of their counterpart was either disclosed or withheld. On average, disclosing counterpart gender does not yield statistically detectable effects in either game. However, statistically significant differences emerge by participants' own gender: on average men exhibit higher levels of trust, reciprocity, and generosity in bargaining than women. When disaggregating by participant-counterpart gender pairings, point estimates differ in sign across groups but are generally imprecisely estimated, and differences between interacting …

5th International Annual Conference Proceedings: A New Global Order, Yet Again, Centre For Business And Economic Research (Cber), School Of Economics And Social Sciences (Sess)

Conference Proceedings

The School of Economics and Social Sciences (SESS) and the Center for Business and Economics Research (CBER) at the Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Karachi, are pleased to announce the 5th International Annual Conference on "A New Global Order, Yet Again" In an era marked by geopolitical realignments, technological innovations, green transitions, climate change, and evolving trade dynamics, the global economic landscape is undergoing an unprecedented transformation. Developing economies today face multifaceted challenges: leveraging new opportunities in a decentralized global system while managing debt insolvency risk, uncertainties in international trade, climate change vulnerabilities, and rising socioeconomic inequality.

This conference seeks …

Investigating The Relationship Between Noun Classes And Plant Folk Taxonomy In Chasu Language Of Kilimanjaro Region In Tanzania, Peter Rabson Mziray

Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences

The current study investigates the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu (G 22). The study focuses on two objectives: the first objective is to describe the plant folk taxonomy in Chasu and the second objective is to determine the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu. Data were collected from rural villages in Same and Mwanga districts by using free listing, field interviews (jungle-walk-and-identify), and written texts containing Chasu plant names. The findings reveal that Chasu folk taxonomy reflects different ethnobotanical categories; including a unique beginner which is mmea/mimea ‘plant(s)’, and three life …

Dictators And Lying Dictators: An Experimental Investigation Of Preference Based-Group Biases In Chinese And American Interactions, Aaron S. Berman, Saika Cer Askin, Shapeng Jiang, David Porter, Jason Shachat

ESI Working Papers

This study examines preference-based behavioral biases in social interactions between two distinct communities: students from Chapman University in the United States and Wuhan University in China. Using controlled experiments, participants interacted within or across communities in Dictator games. Two versions of the Dictator game were used: one where decisions were observable by both the experimenter and the recipient, and another where allocators could misreport outcomes with plausible deniability. Results revealed unexpected patterns, including similar allocation distributions across communities in the transparent task, and differing behaviors in the misreporting task, with Chapman allocators being more generous to out-group members and Wuhan …

Identifying Effective Corporate Financial Strategies For Overcoming Economic Shocks: A Literature Review, Selvi Permata Groda, Muazila Norisnita

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

The current era of heightened global economic uncertainty necessitates a thorough understanding of corporate financial strategies that enable firms to weather economic shocks. This literature review systematically identifies and analyzes financial strategies and practices that have demonstrated effectiveness in mitigating the negative impacts of events such as geopolitical instability. The methodology involves a comprehensive synthesis of existing scholarly articles focusing on corporate finance responses to global economic volatility. This study examines strategies related to funding, capital structure, cash management, and investment, evaluating their success in fostering financial resilience. Furthermore, the review integrates relevant financial theories, including the pecking order, trade-off, …

Competition Through Entry Fees Between Auctions For Differentiated Objects, Massimiliano Landi, Domenico Menicucci, Domenico Colucci

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers two competing auctions with objects differentiated according to the random utility framework introduced in Perloff and Salop (1985): bidders privately observe their values for the two objects, and values are ex ante i.i.d. across objects and across bidders. For the case of uniform distribution of values, we show that competition under entry fees is less intense than competition under reserve prices in the sense that sellers are better off, and bidders are worse off when competition takes place with entry fees rather than under reserve prices. The key difference between the two settings is that undercutting under …

Poking Holes And Adding Points In Dictator Games, James C. Cox, Cary Deck, Laura Razzolini, Vjollca Sadiraj

ESI Working Papers

Deviations from choices predicted by self-regarding preferences have regularly been observed in standard dictator games. Such behavior is not inconsistent with conventional preference theory or revealed preference theory, which accommodate other-regarding preferences. By contrast, experiments in which giving nothing is not the least generous feasible act produce data that is inconsistent with conventional preference theory including social preference models and suggest the possible relevance of reference point models. Two such models are the reference-dependent theory of riskless choice with loss aversion and choice monotonicity in moral reference points. Our experiment includes novel treatments designed to challenge both theoretical models of …

Robust Implementation In Rationalizable Strategies In General Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Rene Saran

Research Collection School Of Economics

A social choice function (SCF) is robustly implementable in rationalizable strate-gies if every rationalizable strategy profile on every type space results in outcomes consistent with it. First, we establish an equivalence between robust implementation in rationalizable strategies and “weak rationalizable implementation”. Second, using the equivalence result, we identify weak robust monotonicity as a necessary and al-most sufficient condition for robust implementation in rationalizable strategies. This exhibits a contrast with robust implementation in interim equilibria, i.e., every equilib-rium on every type space achieves outcomes consistent with the SCF. Bergemann and Morris (2011) show that strict robust monotonicity is a necessary and …

How Fair Workweek Laws Affect Labor Markets: A New York City Case Study, Joseph Pickens, Aaron Sojourner

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Final Offer Arbitration With Asymmetric Evidence, Yongjoon Kim, Afia Promi, Jiatong Xue, Cary Deck

ESI Working Papers

As disputants increasingly rely upon arbitration it is critical to understand outcomes that are likely to arise from mechanisms like final offer arbitration. While a sizable experimental literature investigating strategic behavior in final offer arbitration exists, that work has overwhelmingly focused on situations where the arbitrator’s beliefs about the appropriate resolution are symmetric and uninfluenced by the disputants’ cases. This paper considers a setting where the arbitrator’s beliefs depend on the strength of each disputant’s case. We find disputant responses to changes in the relative strength of their case generally follow comparative statics predictions. Further, we find that final offers …

Object Play In Tsimane Children: Implications For Sex-Specific Division Of Labour, Ava Moser, Michael D. Gurven, Hillard Kaplan, Benjamin C. Trumble, Jonathan Stieglitz, Paul Hooper, Daniel Cummings, Adrian Jaeggi, Kathelijne Koops

ESI Publications

Sex-specific division of labour and the associated use of different subsistence techniques by males (e.g. hunting) and females (e.g. gathering) has played an important role in shaping human societies. Skills needed in adulthood are practiced in play during childhood and object play has been proposed to foster tool-use skills necessary for adult subsistence techniques. Here, we investigated sex differences in the ontogeny of object play in Tsimane children in Bolivia to understand its potential role in shaping gender-specific adult roles. We used observational data (>80,000 scan samples) from nine Tsimane communities collected between 2002 and 2007. We analysed age …

How Fair Workweek Laws Affect Labor Markets: A New York City Case Study, Joseph Pickens, Aaron Sojourner

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Learning About Stability Of Risk Preferences, Levon Barseghyan, Francesca Molinari, Joshua C. Teitelbaum

Georgetown Law Faculty Publications and Other Works

Classical theories posit that risk preferences are stable across decision contexts. Two branches of empirical literature assess this claim. Structural approaches examine within-person consistency of model-based estimates of risk aversion, while “model-free” approaches examine within-person correlations of risky choices. We elucidate the latent structure underlying the model-free approach. Using this structure, we develop a new approach to assessing preference stability that has stronger testable implications, and we partially identify features of stability and heterogeneity of risk preferences. Our study illustrates a general principle: partial identification through minimal assumptions grounded in economic theory robustly bridges fully structural and model-free methods.

Coordination In Time, Lars Boerner, Erik O. Kimbrough, Mouli Modak

ESI Working Papers

We study how well people are able to solve pure coordination problems in continuous time. Subjects decide whether and when to pay a cost to go to market with their goods and earn money only if another person shows up at the same time. We show that coordination failure is common in a baseline, and we introduce treatments that feature public coordination devices (meant to mimic clocks) and assess the extent to which coordination improves when such devices are provided via different institutions. A publicly provided device outperforms a variety of privately provided alternatives. Our evidence suggests this is because …

Robust Contracting Under Distributional Uncertainty, Jiangtao Li, Kexin Wang

Research Collection School of Economics

We study contract design when the principal has limited information about the output distributions induced by the agent's actions. In a baseline model where only the means are known, we show that increasing affine contracts are robustly optimal. The mean restrictions accommodate a wide range of output distributions, including extreme cases that help establish this optimality. We then extend the analysis to environments with additional constraints on the distributions. Our main result shows that the robust optimality of increasing affine contracts persists even when the principal knows more—for example, that each action induces a distribution with full support.

Minimum Resale Price Maintenance In The Absence Of Point-Of-Sale Service, Agency Or Free-Rider Problems, Michael R. Baye, Dan Kovenock, Casper De Vries

ESI Working Papers

We show that MRPM can increase manufacturer profits and total output even in the ab- sence of traditional justifications based on point-of-sale services, retailer effort, or free-riding. The key insight is that MRPM mitigates channel conflict by altering how retailers balance extracting surplus from loyal customers and competing for price-sensitive shoppers. When a manufacturer optimally chooses a wholesale price and MRPM policy, this can intensify com- petition and create systematic distributional effects: prices fall for loyal consumers but rise for shoppers, and the profits of smaller, shopper-dependent retailers decline. We characterize the conditions under which MRPM raises output, benefits a …

Building Reputation: State-Sponsored Rebellions And Transnational Identities, Marion Mercier, Arthur Silve, Benjamin Tremblay-Auger

ESI Working Papers

States sometimes back rebellions abroad to signal resolve. We study this reputation-building logic in international relations, focusing on co-ethnic links between countries as an objective source of variation in a state’s incentives to demonstrate resolve. We formally derive two interconnected predictions from the mechanism: (a) a state is more likely to endorse the uprising of a foreign group when facing a larger audience, resulting in (b) greater political inclusion for the group. We build a comprehensive panel dataset of co-ethnic rebellion sponsorship, and find evidence consistent with both predictions.

Tokenization And Interconnectedness: A Numerical Exploration, Alessandro Gioffré, Gabriele Camera

ESI Working Papers

Tokenization of assets has multiple implications for the operation of financial markets, among which are mitigating trade frictions and improving the interconnectedness of financial firms. This feature—if not properly managed—can propagate shocks more widely as compared to a traditional system. We study this double-edged aspect of tokenization using a matching model that makes explicit how firms are exposed to counterparty risk. We propose a way to manage this increased risk, through Financial Transactions Limiters, which exploit the technical advantages of tokenization in monitoring financial transactions of individual firms. We numerically analyze the possible social welfare consequences of tokenization, in …

What Kind Of Economists Do We Want? From A One-Track To A Two-Track Mind, Magnus Henrekson, Lars Jonung, Mats Lundahl

Economic and Business Review

We explore the challenges facing the current academic training of economists in small European countries such as Sweden. The monolithic focus on publishing in the top-five journals, which prioritizes methodological rigor over problem-driven research, is often a threat to social relevance and policy applicability. This limits pluralism, excludes many talented economists, and fails to prepare graduates for nonacademic positions. We propose a two-track model for PhD training and academic evaluation, emphasizing both traditional research and applied economic policy, tailored to the diverse needs of academia, public administration, and business. We also argue for broader evaluation criteria, enhanced interdisciplinary collaboration, and …