Economics Commons^™

A Model For Simulating Life Histories Of The Elderly: Model Design And Implementation Plans, Douglas Wolf, Jan Ondrich, Kenneth G. Manton, Eric Stallard, Max A. Woodbury, Larry Corder

Center for Policy Research

This paper provides a strategy for the development of a model of life-cycle change in functional status, economic well-being, and family composition, with particular attention to persons aged 65 and older. The overall goal is to use the model as the basis for individual-level projections of the later life cycle, that is, microsimulation. Specifically, the scope of the project includes: 1. Specification and estimation of equations for the dynamics of functional status, nursing home occupancy, income and death among those aged 65+, using data from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long-Term Care Survey (NLTCS) linked to Medicare data for …

Putting The Minimum Wage Debate In A Historical Context: Card And Krueger Meet George Stigler, Richard V. Burkhauser, Kenneth A. Couch, David Wittenburg

Center for Policy Research

Half a century ago George Stigler stated that evaluation of minimum wage policy should revolve around two questions: Does such legislation diminish poverty? Are there efficient alternatives? We argue that historically these were and continue to be appropriate questions to ask with respect to this policy. We then replicate and evaluate the analysis in Chapter 9 of Myth and Measurement: The New Economics of the Minimum Wage with regards to these questions. Given the evolution of the Earned Income Tax Credit we conclude that, aside from nostalgia, it is hard to explain the continued support for increasing the minimum wage …

Labor Earnings And Household Income Mobility In Reunified Germany: A Comparison Of The Eastern And Western States, Richard Hauser, Holger Fabig

Center for Policy Research

Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) we compare the economic mobility of persons living in the eastern and western states of Germany between 1990 and 1995. We find that gross individual labor income mobility was initially much higher in the east than in the west following reunification, but by 1995 the gap had been greatly reduced. We find similar results when we change our measures to more accurately reflect economic well-being. Gross equivalent labor income and net equivalent income mobility were initially higher in the eastern states than in the western states but there has been convergence over …

Transitions Between Child Care Arrangements For German Pre-Schoolers, Jan Ondrich, C. Katharina Spiess

Center for Policy Research

This study uses a descriptive statistical approach to analyze the dynamics of child care for German pre-schoolers of all ages. Age-specific and duration-specific hazard rates for leaving informal care and for leaving formal care are calculated for various risk groups. Differences in the hazard rates across risk groups indicate the presence of important factors affecting transitions. The factors that we examine relate to household characteristics, the employment status of the mother, and regional supply. We find strong support for the hypotheses that households with fewer pre-schoolers and working mothers have greater demand for pre-school formal care. This demand also appears …

Persistence Of Poverty Across Generations: A Comparison Of Anglos, Blacks, And Latinos, Anna M. Santiago, Yolanda C. Padilla

New England Journal of Public Policy

Utilizing data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, this study examines the impact of children's growing up in poverty on the probability of their remaining in poverty during young adulthood. The primary goals of the research are to examine racial, ethnic, and gender differences in patterns of persistent poverty and to identify predictors of poverty status in young adulthood. The results suggest that both women, regardless of their race, ethnicity, or adolescent poverty status, and black men who grew up in poverty are more likely to be poor as young adults than Anglo men. Logistic regression analyses reveal that …

Latinos Need Not Apply: The Effects Of Industrial Change And Workplace Discrimination On Latino Employment, Edwin Meléndez, Françoise Carré, Evangelina Holvino

New England Journal of Public Policy

The objective of the research described here is to assess how recent changes in the organization of industry and discrimination in the workplace affect the employment of Latinos. One of the most important developments in labor markets during the past two decades is the erosion of internal labor markets. Employers are responding to intensified competitive conditions that developed during the 1980s: increased international competition in domestic markets and deregulation in telecommunications, banking, insurance, and other industries. The development of information technologies and the diffusion of secondary and postsecondary education have enabled organizations to cut labor costs. In particular, firms are …

In Search Of Empirical Evidence That Links Rent And User Cost, Dixie M. Blackley, James R. Follain

Center for Policy Research

Most models of the rental housing market assume a close linkage between the level of residential rents and the after-tax user cost of rental housing capital. However, little empirical evidence exists to establish the strength of this linkage or the speed with which rents adjust to changes in user cost or tax policy. This paper develops and estimates an econometric model of the rental housing market in order to shed light on both of these issues. United States annual data for 1964 through 1993 are used to generate two-stage least squares estimates of a four equation structural model. Although the …

Subsidizing Increased Employment For The Urban Poor: What Labor Market Problems Might Justify It?, Timothy J. Bartik

Conference Papers

No abstract provided.

Access To Capital And Technical Assistance, Richard J. Ward

New England Journal of Public Policy

This article summarizes and analyzes the views of select leaders in business, labor, banking, the government, and academia with regard to the constraints, obstacles, and recommendations to achieve economic growth in Massachusetts. The role of the state government in addressing these issues receives special attention. Access to capital and technical assistance had been regarded by many as the key constraint, particularly during the recession of the early 1990s. The author analyzes inconvenient government systems, bottlenecks, and bureaucracy as throttling the flow of capital to small-business entrepreneurs. The analysis concludes, however, that unless the state cum federal government finds ways to …

Economic Growth Issues In Massachusetts Rural Areas And Small Cities, Nancy Goff

New England Journal of Public Policy

In developing a strategy for economic development, state government must consider the special needs of its small cities and rural areas. Well-meaning policies crafted for metropolitan areas have unintended and often negative consequences when applied statewide. This article is a revision of the author's topical discussion paper for the August 6, 1992, Conference on Rural and Small City Development at Mount Wachusett Community College, Gardner. It was used by the Massachusetts Executive Office of Economic Affairs and the University of Massachusetts in developing a statewide economic development strategy.

Budget Policy And Fiscal Crisis: A Political Matrix, Francis J. Leazes Jr., Robert Sieczkiewicz

New England Journal of Public Policy

A study of 134 Rhode Island programs, administered during the state's budget crisis in the fiscal years 1987 to 1991, yielded a number of important lessons. The more mandated formula spending there was in a budget, the more uncontrollable was the budget. There is a spending bias ingrained in the political culture. Some nonentitlement spending can be difficult to curtail. Cutback management strategies are inadequate to address significant revenue shortfalls. The authors present a political budget matrix designed to assist budget policymakers and staff in making educated assumptions about the way categories of programs may be treated during times of …

Improving Education And Training For Economic Development, Joan Mcrae Stoia

New England Journal of Public Policy

This article explores the connections between workforce quality and economic prosperity, as well as the role of the Massachusetts education and training system, in developing and preserving that quality and supporting the state's key industries. It includes a review of the most recent employment trend and projection data available from the Massachusetts Department of Employment and Training, information about several business-based workplace education models, and a discussion of the specific education and training needs of workers across the age/skill continuum. For the purpose of this discussion, the education and training system are broadly defined to include existing public, private, and …

Mortality Effects Of Regulatory Costs And Policy Evaluation Criteria, W. Kip Viscusi

Vanderbilt Law School Faculty Publications

Risk regulations directly reduce risks, but they may produce offsetting risk increases. Regulated risks generate a substitution effect, as individuals' risk-averting actions will diminish. Recognition of these effects alters benefit-cost criteria and the value-of-life estimates pertinent to policy analysis. Particularly expensive risk regulations may be counterproductive. The expenditure level that will lead to the loss of one statistical life equals the value of life divided by the marginal propensity to spend on health. Regulations with a cost of $30 million to $70 million per life saved will, on balance, have a net adverse effect on mortality because of these linkages.

Public Policies For The Working Poor: The Earned Income Tax Credit Versus Minimum Wage Legislation, Richard V. Burkhauser, Andrew J. Glenn

Center for Policy Research

This paper first documents the decades-long erosion of the link between low wages and low household income. It then simulates the consequences of this determination on the relative gains of programs designed to help the working poor—minimum wage increases under the Fair Labor Standards Act and increases in the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC). Using data from the Current Population Survey it is found that increases in the EITC between 1989 and 1992 were far more target-efficient than was the increase in the minimum wage from $3.35 to $4.25 and that the 1993 extension of the EITC is far more …

Indirect Transfers In Trade Among Former Soviet Union Republics: Sources, Patterns, And Policy Responses In The Post-Soviet Period, Lucjan T. Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

Reports on indirect transfers in trade among the former Soviet Union Republics. The Former Soviet Union (FSU) was composed of 15 republics which were very unevenly endowed with human, physical and natural resources. To contain regional imbalances within the Union and to integrate all republics into a tight and centrally commanded division of labour, the central government operated a scheme of vertical fiscal redistribution between the Union budget and the republican budgets. Through this system poorer republics became net receivers of direct transfers and richer republics became net donors. This scheme, which collapsed with the dissolution of the Union in …

The Rationale For Structural Adjustment: A Layman's Guide, Marcelo M. Giugale

Faculty Book Chapters

[abstract not provided]

Introduction (The Economics And Politics Of Structural Adjustment In Egypt), Hans Löfgren

Faculty Book Chapters

[abstract not provided]

The Politics Of Adjustment In Africa With Special Reference To Egypt, Trevor Parfitt

Faculty Book Chapters

[abstract not provided]

The Nationalization Of The Imf: The Nature And Evolution Of The Official Discourse On Economic Reform In Egypt (1987-1991), Mourad Magdi Wahba

Faculty Book Chapters

[abstract not provided]

The Importance Of Employer Accommodation On The Job Duration Of Workers With Disabilities: A Hazard Model Approach, Richard V. Burkhauser, J.S. Butler, Yang Woo Kim

Center for Policy Research

In line with policies long in place in Western Europe, United States disability policy is now attempting to intervene directly in the labor market to increase the employment of people with disabilities. Beginning in July, 1992, the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 required employers to provide reasonable accommodation to workers with disabilities. Here we use a continuous time hazard model on retrospective data from the 1978 Social Security Survey of Disability and Work to estimate the effect of employer accommodation on the subsequent job tenure of workers who suffer a work limiting health impairment. We show that the risk …

Reality Or Illusion: The Importance Of Creaming On Job Placement Rates In Job Training Partnership Act Programs, Kathryn H. Anderson, Richard V. Burkhauser, Jennie E. Raymond

Center for Policy Research

Critics of the Job Partnership Training Act of 1982 (JTPA) argue that most of its job placement success has been the result of the "creaming" of participants--that is, of serving individuals who are most employable at the expense of those most in need. Using a bivariate probit model of JTPA trainee selection and job placement success, this paper analyzes the selection of JTPA past recipients. It provides a first approximation of the importance of nonrandom selection on job placement rates. Creaming is found to take place within service delivery areas (SDAs), especially with respect to the avoidance of eligible high …

W(H)Ither The Middle Class? A Dynamic View, Greg J. Duncan, Timothy M, Smeeding, Willard Rodgers

Center for Policy Research

A constant theme throughout the history of the U.S. has been the growth of the middle class and the promise of its growth for the elimination of poverty. By the late 1980s, social analysts sensed a decline in the size of the American middle class which later was verified through cross-section analysis of wage and salary and income distribution data. Using time series from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics for prime-age males, this study moves beyond verification of the shrinking of the middle class. The analysis examines changes in both income and wealth and finds that wealth increases reinforced …

How People With Disabilities Fare When Public Policies Change--Past, Present, And Future, Richard V. Burkhauser, Robert H. Haveman, Barbara L. Wolfe

Center for Policy Research

In this paper the authors analyze the effects of two decades of federal disability policy and macroeconomic fluctuation on the well-being of men with disabilities. Their findings indicate that both have dramatically affected the economic well-being of people with disabilities both absolutely and relative to people without disabilities. Using data from the Current Population Survey (19681988) they find that by 1987 the households of white or well-educated male heads with disabilities had fully recovered from the program cuts and recession of the early 1980s. However, to a large extent this recovery was due to additional earnings by spouses. Alternatively, the …

Modeling Application For Disability Insurance As A Retirement Decision: A Hazard Model Approach Using Choice-Based Sampling, Richard V. Burkhauser, J.S. Butler, Yang Woo Kim, George A. Slotsve

Center for Policy Research

This paper models the decision to apply for Social Security Disability Insurance Benefitsas a special case of a more general dynamic retirement decision model. It uses a multi-state, continuous-time hazard to test the effect of policy variables on the speed at which workers applyfor benefits following the onset of a work limitation. Policy variables are found to matter. A higher expected replacement rate increases the risk of application. This effect is significant in asmall sample of the general population and in a sample which also includes a weighted choice-based sample of disability insurance applicants.

A Cautionary Tale Of European Disability Policies: Lessons For The United States, Leo Arts, Richard V. Burkhauser, Philip De Jong

Center for Policy Research

Variations in the size of the population receiving disability payments across countries cannot be explained by simple differences in health. Rather, the process to disability is shaped by both social and medical factors. When governments ignore this reality, a policy generated disability epidemic is possible. This paper compares disability policies in The Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, and the United States. It argues that the extraordinary increase in Dutch disability rolls in the 1970s was caused by a general government policy to reduce official unemployment. And that by the end of the 1980s, this policy had left Holland with a hidden unemployment …

Disability Or Work: Handicap Policy Choices, Richard V. Burkhauser

Center for Policy Research

Cross-national comparisons of disability programs and disabled populations show that the social environment workers with handicaps face can be as important as their health in affecting their movement into disability. In this context, Richard Burkhauser reviews American disability policy over the business cycles of the past two decades. He finds that strong economic recovery has, in general, overcome the sharp drop in the well-being of people with handicaps brought on by the recession and the reduction in program benefits in the early 1980s. However, the doubly handicapped, those with both health limitations and poor work skills, have not recovered.

Defense Cuts: What Might Connecticut Expect On The Manufacturing Employment Front?, Bruce D. Wundt

New England Journal of Public Policy

Connecticut has enjoyed considerable economic prosperity as a result of its reliance on the defense industry. However, as a consequence of reductions in federal spending on defense, this favorable trend of many years is reversing, unfortunately, while the region is also experiencing a general economic slowdown. Many Connecticut industries must prepare for a new era of reducing their dependence on defense contracts and diversify into new markets and products. State policymakers can help during these uncertain times by encouraging private and public retraining of labor resources and the expansion of industries that will promote economic stability.

Effects Of A Reemployment Bonus Under Differing Benefit Entitlements, Or, Why The Illinois Experiment Worked, Carl Davidson, Stephen A. Woodbury

Conference Papers

Fifty-eight percent of the workers enrolled in the Illinois Claimant Bonus experiment were eligible for 38 weeks of Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits--26 weeks of state-regular benefits plus 12 weeks of Federal Supplemental Compensation (FSC). The other 42 percent were eligible for only 26 weeks of state-regular UI benefits. We find that the Claimant Bonus treatment--an offer of $500 in cash for rapid reemployment--reduced the duration of insured unemployment by about 1.8 weeks for workers who were eligible for 38 weeks of UI benefits, but by only about 0.75 week for the workers who were eligible for 26 weeks of UI. …

The Guaranteed Minimum Price And Price Stabilization In The Wheat Market, Therese L. Soullier

Economics Theses & Dissertations

The government of the United States offers a guaranteed minimum price per bushel to farmers in return for a reduction in acreage planted. Through this program, the government attempts to control the supply of wheat and stabilize the price of wheat. There is growing debate in the United States as to the effectiveness and prudence of the current program.

This thesis will examine the effectiveness of the guaranteed minimum price program, using the two-stage least squares procedure to examine a demand and supply model. The study will look at the relative stability of the price of wheat and how and …

Jevons's Applications Of Utilitarian Theory To Economic Policy, Sandra J. Peart

Jepson School of Leadership Studies articles, book chapters and other publications

The precise nature of W. S. Jevons's utilitarianism as a guiding rule for economic policy has yet to be investigated, and that will be the first issue treated in this paper. While J. A. Schumpeter, for instance, asserted that 'some of the most prominent exponents of marginal utility' (including Jevons), were 'convinced utilitarians', he did not investigate the further implications for Jevons's policy analysis.¹