Economics Commons^™

Modeling The Firm-Size Distribution Using Box-Cox Heteroscedastic Regression, Zhenlin Yang, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

Using the Box-Cox regression model with heteroscedasticity (BCHR), we re-examine the size distribution of the Portuguese manufacturing firms studied by Machado and Mata () using the Box-Cox quantile regression (BCQR) method. We show that the BCHR model compares favourably against the BCQR method. In particular, the BCHR model can answer the key questions addressed by the BCQR method, with the advantage that the estimated quantile functions are monotonic. Furthermore, estimation of the BCHR model is straightforward and the confidence intervals of the BCHR regression quantiles are easy to compute.

Semi-Parametric Inference In A Bivariate (Multivariate) Mixture Model, Denis H. Y. Leung, Jing Qin

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider estimation in a bivariate mixture model in which the component distributions can be decomposed into identical distributions. Previous approaches to estimation involve parametrizing the distributions. In this paper, we use a semi-parametric approach. The method is based on the exponential tilt model of Anderson (1979), where the log ratio of probability (density) functions from the bivariate components is linear in the observations. The proposed model does not require training samples, i.e., data with confirmed component membership. We show that in bivariate mixture models, parameters are identifiable. This is in contrast to previous works, where parameters are identifiable if …

An Empirical Examination Of Ipo Underpricing In The Chinese A-Share Market, Ting Yu, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

Research in the literature shows that initial public offerings (IPOs) of common stocks are systematically priced at a discount to their subsequent initial trading price. The large underpricing magnitude in the Chinese IPO market has attracted much attention. We consider three hypotheses that may explain the IPO underpricing in China. These are the winner's curse hypothesis, the ex ante uncertainty hypothesis and the signaling hypothesis. Among these hypotheses, the winner's curse hypothesis has not been tested in the Chinese market. Using IPO data for online fixed-price offerings from November 1995 to December 1998, our results show that the winner's curse …

L S Penrose's Limit Theorem: Tests By Simulation, Pao Li Chang, Vincent Chua, Moshe Machover

Research Collection School Of Economics

L S Penrose's Limit Theorem-which is implicit in Penrose (1952, p. 72) [Penrose, 1952. On the Objective Study of Crowd Behavior. H. K. Lewis and Co, London, p. 72] and for which he gave no rigorous proof-says that, in simple weighted voting games, if the number of voters increases indefinitely and the relative quota is pegged, then-under certain conditions-the ratio between the voting powers of any two voters converges to the ratio between their weights. Lindner and Machover (2004) [Lindner I., Machover M. 2004. L.S. Penrose's limit theorem: proof of some special cases. Mathematical Social Sciences 47, 37-49] prove some …

Intraday Stock Prices, Volume, And Duration: A Nonparametric Conditional Density Analysis, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate the distribution of high-frequency price changes, conditional on trading volume and duration between trades, on four stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The conditional probabilities are estimated nonparametrically using local polynomial regression methods. We find substantial skewness in the distribution of price changes, with the direction of skewness dependent on the sign of trade. We also find that the probability of larger price changes increases with volume, but only for trades that occur with longer durations. The distribution of price changes vary with duration primarily when volume is high.

A Class Of Nonlinear Stochastic Volatility Models, Jun Yu, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a class of nonlinear stochastic volatility models based on the Box-Cox transformation which offers an alternative to the one introduced in Andersen (1994). The proposed class encompasses many parametric stochastic volatility models that have appeared in the literature, including the well known lognormal stochastic volatility model, and has an advantage in the ease with which different specifications on stochastic volatility can be tested. In addition, the functional form of transformation which induces marginal normality of volatility is obtained as a byproduct of this general way of modeling stochastic volatility. The efficient method of moments approach is used …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- December 2005, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- November 2005, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- October 2005, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

A New Approach To Robust Inference In Cointegration, Sainan Jin, Peter Phillips, Yixiao Sun

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new approach to robust testing in cointegrated systems is proposed using non-parametric HAC estimators without truncation. While such HAC estimates are inconsistent, they still produce asymptotically pivotal tests and, as in conventional regression settings, can improve testing and inference.

Cross-Validation In Nonparametric Regression With Outliers, Denis H. Y. Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

A popular data-driven method for choosing the bandwidth in standard kernel regression is cross-validation. Even when there are outliers ill the data, robust kernel regression can be used to estimate the unknown regression curve [Robust and Nonlinear Time Series Analysis. Lecture Notes in Statist. (1984) 26 163-184]. However, Under these Circumstances Standard cross-validation is no longer a satisfactory bandwidth selector because it is unduly influenced by extreme prediction errors caused by the existence of these Outliers. A more robust method proposed here is a cross-validation method that discounts the extreme prediction errors. In large samples the robust method chooses consistent …

Q-Convergence With Interquartile Ranges, Sung Jin Kang, Myoung-Jae Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

We introduce a new convergence concept ‘Q-convergence’ which defines convergence in national incomes as a shrinking interquartile range (IQR) of the national income distribution. Compared with the other convergence definitions in the literature, Q-convergence has the following advantages. First, IQR, which represents dispersion and inequality of the income distribution, is also closely linked to the two-group clustering with the lower and upper quartiles being the ‘centers’ of the two groups. Second, IQR is equivariant to increasing transformations and thus reconciles better conflicting empirical findings using level or log data. Third, IQR is insensitive to outliers, leading to robust statistical inferences. …

Determinants Of Job Turnover Intentions: Evidence From Singapore, Xiaolin Xing, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper explores both observable and unobservable variables that would affect employed workers’ decisions on job change. We find that age, job satisfaction, satisfaction with working environment or job security, and firm size are among the major factors determining workers’ intentions of job-to-job mobility. Younger workers and workers in smaller firms are more likely to look for other jobs. We also find that men are more likely to consider a change in job than women, but when “actually looking for another job” is concerned, men and women do not differ. Furthermore, monthly income and working sector contribute significantly to looking …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- September 2005, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Comment On "Realized Variance And Market Microstructure Noise" By Peter R. Hansen And Asger Lunde, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

With the availability of ultra high frequency financial data, the task of finding an appropriate econometric model to describe the movement of financial variables at the tick-by-tick level has become an important goal in financial econometric research. The task has both theoretical and empirical dimensions. From an empirical perspective, the near continuous recording of financial asset prices has opened up the intriguing possibility of fitting the quadratic variation process empirically, leading to what is possibly the most direct nonparametric measure of asset price volatility. The resulting quantity has become known in the financial econometrics literature as realized variance (RV) and …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- August 2005, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

On Leverage In A Stochastic Volatility Model, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper is concerned with the specification for modelling financial leverage effect in the context of stochastic volatility (SV) models. Two alternative specifications co-exist in the literature. One is the Euler approximation to the well-known continuous time SV model with leverage effect and the other is the discrete time SV model of Jacquier et al. (J. Econometrics 122 (2004) 185). Using a Gaussian nonlinear state space form with uncorrelated measurement and transition errors, I show that it is easy to interpret the leverage effect in the conventional model whereas it is not clear how to obtain and interpret the leverage …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- July 2005, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Intraday Stock Prices, Volume, And Duration: A Nonparametric Conditional Duration Analysis, Anthony Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate the distribution of high-frequency price changes, conditional on trading volume and duration between trades, on four stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The conditional probabilities are estimated nonparametrically using local polynomial regression methods. We find substantial skewness in the distribution of price changes, with the direction of skewness dependent on the sign of trade. We also find that the probability of larger price changes increases with volume, but only for trades that occur with longer durations. The distribution of price changes vary with duration primarily when volume is high.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- June 2005, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Banking Sector Reforms And Bank Consolidation: Conceptual Framework., Moses Ajayi

Bullion

Reforms are predicated upon the need for reorientation and repositioning of an existing status quo in order to attain an effective and efficient state The objective of this paper is, therefore, to present the conceptual framework for banking sector reforms. particularly, consolidation. The paper is divided into five sections. following the introduction, section ll conceptualizes the facets of reforms and conceptual issues on consolidation in the banking sector, while section ll discusses the critical success issues in banking sector consolidation. section IV presents concepts associated with country elements of banking elements of banking reforms, while section five concludes the paper. …

Jackknifing Bond Option Prices, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Prices of interest rate derivative securities depend crucially on the mean reversion parameters of the underlying diffusions. These parameters are subject to estimation bias when standard methods are used. The estimation bias can be substantial even in very large samples and much more serious than the discretization bias, and it translates into a bias in pricing bond options and other derivative securities that is important in practical work. This article proposes a very general and computationally inexpensive method of bias reduction that is based on Quenouille's (1956; Biometrika, 43, 353-360) jackknife. We show how the method can be applied directly …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- May 2005, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- April 2005, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- March 2005, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Drift And Diffusion Function Specification For Short-Term Interest Rates, Myoung-Jae Lee, Wen Juan Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

Various stochastic differential equation models for short rates (r_t) have been proposed, where the change (Δr_t = r_t−r_t−1) is modeled as a sum of drift and diffusion terms depending on r_t−1. These models, however, have some shortcomings. First, the same model may not apply to all countries. Second, the drift and diffusion may depend not only on r_t−1 but also on further lags. Third, not just the own lagged rates, but also other countries' rates may matter. These questions are empirically analyzed for six major countries with the following findings. …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- February 2005, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- January 2005, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Technical Change, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (1989, July). Two basic comments on Duménil’s evaluation of the new technique and the profit rate [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (1982, November 2). Duménil paper on TROP [Handwritten notes discussing balanced growth, technical change, competition, and business cycles]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Two states A & B [Handwritten notes discussing capital-output ratio and real wage]. Unpublished manuscript.

• (2005, September 20). Classical biased technical change approach and its relevance to reality [Referee’s report for International Review of Applied Economics on Hiroaki Sasaki’s paper]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Sawyer, M. (2005, June 8). Letter to Anwar …

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Cox-Mcfadden Partial And Marginal Likelihoods For The Proportional Hazard Model With Random Effects, Jan Ondrich

Center for Policy Research

In survival analysis, Cox's name is associated with the partial likelihood technique that allows consistent estimation of proportional hazard scale parameters without specifying a duration dependence baseline. In discrete choice analysis, McFadden's name is associated with the generalized extreme-value (GEV) class of logistic choice models that relax the independence of irrelevant alternatives assumption. This paper shows that the mixed class of proportional hazard specifications allowing consistent estimation of scale and mixing parameters using partial likelihood is isomorphic to the GEV class. Independent censoring is allowed and I discuss approximations to the partial likelihood in the presence of ties. Finally, the …