Economics Commons^™

The Impact Of Competition On Prices With Numerous Firms, Xavier Gabaix, David Laibson, Deyuan Li, Hongyi Li

ESI Working Papers

We use extreme value theory (EVT) to develop insights about price theory. Our analysis reveals detail-independent equilibrium properties that characterize a large family of models. We derive a formula relating equilibrium prices to the level of competition. When the number of rms is large, markups are proportional to 1= (nF' [F^-1 (1- 1/n)], where F is the random utility noise distribution and n is the number of rms. This implies prices are pinned down by the tail properties of the noise distribution and that prices are independent of many other institutional details. The elasticity of the markup with respect to …

Prediction Markets In The Laboratory, Cary Deck, David Porter

ESI Working Papers

"The idea that there is wisdom from the collective has been forcefully described in “The Wisdom of the Crowds” by James Surowiecki, who argues that the aggregation of information in groups results in better decisions than those that are afforded by any single member of the group. Markets, like opinion polls, are one mechanism for aggregating disparate pieces of information. The aggregation properties of prices were first noted by Hayek (1945) and were formally examined by Muth (1961). In particular, Hayek argues that market prices serve the purpose of sharing and coordinating local and personal knowledge, while Muth shows that …

Recalibrational Emotions And The Regulation Of Trust-Based Behaviors, Eric Schniter, Timothy W. Shields

ESI Working Papers

Though individuals differ in the degree to which they are predisposed to trust or act trustworthy, we theorize that trust-based behaviors are universally determined by the calibration of conflicting short- and long-sighted behavior regulation programs, and that these programs are calibrated by emotions experienced personally and interpersonally. In this chapter we review both the main-stream and evolutionary theories of emotions that philosophers, psychologists, and behavioral economists have based their work on and which can inform our understanding of trust-based behavior regulation. The standard paradigm for understanding emotions is based on mapping their positive and negative affect valence. While Valence Models …

Estimation Of Monthly Volatility: An Empirical Comparison Of Realized Volatility, Garch And Acd-Icv Methods, Shouwei Liu, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

We apply the ACD-ICV method proposed by Tse and Yang (2011) for the estimation of intraday volatility to estimate monthly volatility, and empirically compare this method against the realized volatility (RV) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) methods. Our Monte Carlo results show that the ACD-ICV method performs well against the other two methods. Evidence on the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index (VIX) shows that it predicts the ACD-ICV volatility estimates better than it predicts the RV estimates. While the RV method is popular for the estimation of monthly volatility, its performance is inferior to the GARCH method.

Variable Selection In Nonparametric And Semiparametric Regression Models, Liangjun Su, Yonghui Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This chapter reviews the literature on variable selection in nonparametric and semiparametric regression models via shrinkage. We highlight recent developments on simultaneous variable selection and estimation through the methods of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso), smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) or their variants, but restrict our attention to nonparametric and semiparametric regression models. In particular, we consider variable selection in additive models, partially linear models, functional/varying coefficient models, single index models, general nonparametric regression models, and semiparametric/nonparametric quantile regression models.

Non-Normality And Heteroscedasticity Robust Lm Tests Of Spatial Dependence, Badi H. Baltagi, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The standard LM tests for spatial dependence in linear and panel regressions are derived under the normality and homoskedasticity assumptions of the regression disturbances. Hence, they may not be robust against non-normality or heteroskedasticity of the disturbances. Following Born and Breitung (2011), we introduce general methods to modify the standard LM tests so that they become robust against heteroskedasticity and non-normality. The idea behind the robustification is to decompose the concentrated score function into a sum of uncorrelated terms so that the outer product of gradient (OPG) can be used to estimate its variance. We also provide methods for improving …

Testing Whether The Underlying Continuous-Time Process Follows A Diffusion: An Infinitesimal Operator-Based Approach, Bin Chen, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We develop a nonparametric test to check whether a process can be represented by a stochastic differential equation driven only by a Brownian motion. Our testing procedure utilizes the infinitesimal operator-based martingale characterization combined with a generalized spectral approach. Such a testing procedure is feasible and convenient because the infinitesimal operator of the diffusion process has a closed-form expression. The proposed test is applicable to both univariate and multivariate processes and has an  limit distribution under the diffusion hypothesis. Simulation and empirical studies show that the proposed test has reasonable performance in small samples.

Testing Conditional Independence Via Empirical Likelihood, Liangjun Su, Halbert White

Research Collection School Of Economics

We construct two classes of smoothed empirical likelihood ratio tests for the conditional independence hypothesis by writing the null hypothesis as an infinite collection of conditional moment restrictions indexed by a nuisance parameter. One class is based on the CDF; another is based on smoother functions. We show that the test statistics are asymptotically normal under the null hypothesis and a sequence of Pitman local alternatives. We also show that the tests possess an asymptotic optimality property in terms of average power. Simulations suggest that the tests are well behaved in finite samples. Applications to some economic and financial time …

Nonparametric Dynamic Panel Data Models: Kernel Estimation And Specification Testing, Liangjun Su, Xun Lu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Motivated by the first differencing method for linear panel data models, we propose a class of iterative local polynomial estimators for nonparametric dynamic panel data models with or without exogeous regressors. The estimators utilize the additive structure of the first-differenced model, the fact that the two additive components have the same functional form, and the unknown function of interest is implicitly defined as a solution of a Fredholm integral equation of the second kind. We establish the uniform consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators. We also propose a consistent test for the correct specification of linearity in typical dynamic …

Qml Estimation Of Dynamic Panel Data Models With Spatial Errors, Liangjun Su, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimation of dynamic panel models with spatial errors when the cross-sectional dimension n is large and the time dimension T is fixed. We consider both the random effects and fixed effects models and derive the limiting distributions of the QML estimators under different assumptions on the initial observations. We propose a residual-based bootstrap method for estimating the standard errors of the QML estimators. Monte Carlo simulation shows that both the QML estimators and the bootstrap standard errors perform well in finite samples under a correct assumption on initial observations, but may perform poorly when …

When Parity Promotes Peace: Resolving Conflict Between Asymmetric Agents, Erik O. Kimbrough, Roman M. Sheremeta, Timothy W. Shields

ESI Working Papers

Due to the high costs of conflict both in theory and practice, we examine and experimentally test the conditions under which conflict between asymmetric agents can be resolved. We model conflict as a two-agent rent-seeking contest for an indivisible prize. Before conflict arises, both agents may agree to allocate the prize by fair coin flip to avoid the costs of conflict. The model predicts that “parity promotes peace”: in the pure-strategy equilibrium, agents with relatively symmetric conflict capabilities agree to resolve the conflict by using a random device; however, with sufficiently asymmetric capabilities, conflicts are unavoidable because the stronger agent …

Cheap Talk With Two Audiences: An Experiment, Mikhail Drugov, Roberto Hérnan-Gonzalez, Praveen Kujal, Marta Troya Martinez

ESI Working Papers

In this paper we experimentally test strategic information transmission between one informed and two uninformed agents in a cheap-talk game. We find evidence of the "disciplining" effect of public communication as compared to private; however, it is much weaker than predicted by the theory. Adding a second receiver naturally increases the complexity of strategic thinking when communication is public. Using the level-k model, we exploit the within subject design to show how individuals decrease their level-k in public communication. Surprisingly, we find that individuals become more sophisticated when they communicate privately with two receivers rather than one.

Do Prediction Markets Aid Defenders In A Weak‐Link Contest?, Cary Deck, Li Hao, David Porter

ESI Working Papers

Laboratory experiments have demonstrated that prediction market prices weakly aggregate the disparate information of the traders about states (moves) of nature. However, in many practical applications one might want to predict the move of a strategic participant. This is particularly important in aggressor‐defender contests. This paper reports a set of such experiments where the defender may have the advantage of observing a prediction market on the aggressor’s action. The results of the experiments indicate that: the use of prediction markets does not increase the defender’s win rate; prediction markets contain reliable information regarding aggressors’ decisions, namely excess bid information, that …

Religious Identity And The Provision Of Public Goods: Evidence From The Indian Princely States, Latika Chaudhary, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

Religious identity affects preferences and can consequently affect policy. We propose two mechanisms through which a ruler's religious identity can affect public good provision: i) greater provision of goods in regions where more subjects are the ruler's co-religionists, and ii) lower provision of goods where private markets provide a substitute to the ruler's co-religionists. Empirically, identifying the causal effect of religious identity on policy is often impossible, since the religious identity of rulers rarely changes over time and place. We address this problem by exploiting the variation in the religion of rulers in the Indian Princely States in the early …

Commitment Problems In Conflict Resolution, Erik O. Kimbrough, Jared Rubin, Roman M. Sheremeta, Timothy W. Shields

ESI Working Papers

Commitment problems are inherent to non-binding conflict resolution mechanisms, since an unsatisfied party can ignore the resolution and initiate conflict. We provide experimental evidence suggesting that even in the absence of binding contractual agreements individuals often avoid conflict by committing to the outcome of a conflict resolution mechanism. Commitment problems are mitigated to a greater extent for groups who opt-in to the conflict resolution mechanism, but only when opting-in is costly. Although conflict rates are higher when opting-in is costly than when it is free or exogenously imposed, commitment problems are greatly reduced amongst those groups who choose to opt-in.

Pricing Lower Or Buying Cheaper? How Grocery Consumers Pay Less During Seasonal Demand Peaks, Colin Watson

Undergraduate Economic Review

The average price paid for a seasonal grocery category is (surprisingly) lower during the category's seasonal demand peak. For several product categories at one supermarket chain, demand peaks are shown to be associated with 1) consumer substitution to lower-quality products, 2) product price reductions, especially on products that increase their market shares, and as a result 3) a decline in the average price paid for the product category. In one very seasonal category, price reductions are driven by intertemporal substitution associated with large weekly discounts. Findings are consistent with any of several loss leader models.

Public Health Return On Investment: Making The Case, Glen P. Mays

Health Management and Policy Presentations

Fiscal pressures and policy imperatives have created a need for rigorous economic analyses of public health programs and policies. ROI analyses can reveal whether the benefits of public health strategies justify their costs, who realizes these benefits and costs, and under what circumstances.

Comparative Effectiveness Research And Patient Centered Outcomes Research In Public Health Settings: Design, Analysis, And Funding Considerations, Glen P. Mays

Health Management and Policy Presentations

The principles and methods of CER and PCOR have developed primarily with therapeutics in mind, but they must also be applied to the study of public health programs, policies, and delivery systems. This session surveys the emerging field, and provides examples of CER/PCOR methods applied in public health settings using practice-based research networks (PBRNs).

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — December 2012, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Optimal Design Of P-Value Consistent Step-Up Procedures For Multiple Comparisons With A Control In Direction-Mixed Families, Koon Shing Kwong, Siu Hung Cheung

Research Collection School Of Economics

It is common in clinical studies for several treatments to be compared to a control. Most of the related statistical techniques have been developed to accommodate inferential families in which all hypotheses are either one- or two-sided such that the familywise error rate is controlled at a specified level. Several multiple testing procedures were recently proposed to perform multiple comparisons with a control in direction-mixed families that contain a mixture of one- and two-sided inferences. Of these procedures, the p-value consistent step-up procedure is found to be superior in terms of its power and p-value consistent property. In this paper, …

Singapore Inflation Expectations: Expecting The Unexpected, Aurobindo Ghosh, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The study of inflation expectations of Singapore house-holds is a multi-disciplinary industry-relevant research that comes out of a partnership between Singapore Management University (SMU) and MasterCard. The research team for this MasterCard-SKBI Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) project applied rigorous methods using current internet-based marketing survey tools for data-collection and advanced econometric techniques to analyse the data. The updates from the quarterly waves are keenly followed by policymakers, market watchers and the media because of the enormous importance of cost of living to individuals and businesses alike.

The Economic Costs Of Tax Policy Uncertainty: Implications For Fundamental Tax Reform, Seth H. Giertz, Jacob Feldman

Department of Economics: Faculty Publications

The U.S. faces tremendous short-term policy uncertainty, including about $5.4 trillion in tax increases over the next decade. These changes are set to take effect on January 1, 2013. It is unlikely that these changes will fully materialize, but what will happen is anyone’s guess. Over the long term, uncertainty also looms large since the U.S. federal tax system is expected to bring in far less revenue than Congress is projected to spend. In this paper, we detail the tax policy uncertainty that the U.S. faces and the economic literature to assess how this uncertainty may be affecting the economy. …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — November 2012, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Dinámica Del Consumo De Gasolina En Ciudad Juárez: 2001 - 2009, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Gabriel Múnoz Sapien, Martha Patricia Barraza De Anda, Lisbeily Domínguez Ruvalcaba

Border Region Modeling Project

This research analyzes short-run gasoline consumption dynamics in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, México. Parameter estimation is carried out using linear transfer function ARIMA analysis. This market is of interest because it is influenced by regional, national, and international economic conditions due to its location on the border with the United States. Explanatory variables that satisfy the significance criterion include the real price of gasoline in Ciudad Juárez, the price of gasoline in Ciudad Juárez relative to that charged across the border in El Paso, Texas, USA, and formal sector employment in Ciudad Juárez. Sample data are for January 2001 to December …

Estimating Scale And Scope Effects In Public Health Delivery: Implications For Regionalization, Glen P. Mays, Rachel A. Hogg, Rick Ingram, Kristina Rabarison

Health Management and Policy Presentations

OBJECTIVES: The nation's public health delivery system comprises nearly 3000 local public health agencies that vary widely in capabilities. Economic pressures, workforce shortages, and new national accreditation standards are leading these agencies to explore mechanisms for pooling resources to enhance delivery and improve population health.

METHODS: A longitudinal cohort design is used to analyze changes in the availability and perceived effectiveness of services delivered by local public health providers. A stratified random sample of the nation's 3000 local public health agencies (n=497) were surveyed in 1998 and again in 2006 and 2011 (70% response) to measure the availability of 20 …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — October 2012, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Estimation Of High-Frequency Volatility: An Autoregressive Conditional Duration Approach, Yiu Kuen Tse, Thomas Tao Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a method to estimate the intraday volatility of a stock by integrating the instantaneous conditional return variance per unit time obtained from the autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, called the ACD-ICV method. We compare the daily volatility estimated using the ACD-ICV method against several versions of the realized volatility (RV) method, including the bipower variation RV with subsampling, the realized kernel estimate, and the duration-based RV. Our Monte Carlo results show that the ACD-ICV method has lower root mean-squared error than the RV methods in almost all cases considered. This article has online supplementary material.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — September 2012, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Why Clayton And Gumbel Copulas: A Symmetry-Based Explanation, Vladik Kreinovich, Hung T. Nguyen, Songsak Sriboonchitta

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

In econometrics, many distributions are non-Gaussian. To describe dependence between non-Gaussian variables, it is usually not sufficient to provide their correlation: it is desirable to also know the corresponding copula. There are many different families of copulas; which family shall we use? In many econometric applications, two families of copulas have been most efficient: the Clayton and the Gumbel copulas. In this paper, we provide a theoretical explanation for this empirical efficiency, by showing that these copulas naturally follow from reasonable symmetry assumptions. This symmetry justification also allows us to provide recommendations about which families of copulas we should use …

Reinventing The 21st Century Public Health Workforce: Innovation, Evaluation & Practice-Based Research, Glen P. Mays

Health Management and Policy Presentations

Compelling opportunities exist for incorporating practice-based research to into the design, implementation, and evaluation of public health workforce training and development programs. Public Health Training Centers (PHTCs) can collaborate with practice-based research networks (PBRNs) to discover and disseminate evidence-based strategies for workforce development.